It is currently Sat Nov 16, 2024 3:31 am

View unanswered posts | View active topics


Board index » CHICAGO AND NATIONAL TEAMS » CHICAGO CUBS

All times are UTC - 6 hours [ DST ]



Post new topic Reply to topic  Page 7 of 9
  [ 262 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1 ... 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9  Next
  Previous topic | Next topic 
Author Message
Kirkwood
PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 4:00 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Wed Jun 06, 2012 7:43 pm
Posts: 20537
pizza_Place: Joes Pizza
rogers park bryan wrote:
There is a legitimate line of thinking that they are better off on the road


Since 2005 the Cubs have a 0% winning percentage at home in the playoffs
Since 2000 the Cubs have a 22% winning percentage at home in the playoffs
Since 1980 the Cubs have a 36% winning percentage at home in the playoffs
Top
 Profile  
 
denisdman
PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 4:01 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Thu Jun 22, 2006 3:55 pm
Posts: 33067
Location: Wrigley
pizza_Place: Warren Buffet of Cock
good dolphin wrote:
My fellow north siders, the model was tested and retested. It held up to scrutiny. It was proven to be accurate both in theory and then in practice. We shall chalk it up as a misstep by Theo, albeit a trifling one. The greatness of Theo is that out of this mistake, he became an even better GM, as he showed his evolution on the subject by bringing up Schwarber prematurely to great success. I can only hope that my metrics provided the support needed to make this the championship season I know it will be.


LOL, you're trying way too hard. But that's why we love you. The Cubs will be playing on Wednesday, while you'll simply be playing with yourself.

_________________
Hawaii (fuck) You
Top
 Profile  
 
City of Fools
PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 4:04 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Thu Jun 26, 2008 8:22 am
Posts: 15138
pizza_Place: Wha Happen?
rogers park bryan wrote:
There is a legitimate line of thinking that they are better off on the road

the guy that won't benefit, ironically is Bryant. But it shouldn't matter.

_________________
Ба́бушка гада́ла, да на́двое сказа́ла—то ли до́ждик, то ли снег, то ли бу́дет, то ли нет.
Top
 Profile  
 
leashyourkids
PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 4:07 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 7:56 am
Posts: 32234
Location: A sterile, homogeneous suburb
pizza_Place: Pizza Cucina
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
leashyourkids wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
leashyourkids wrote:
You left out an adverb. Do you know what it was?
Nearly doesn't change the thought much.


6% isn't "that much."

So I think "nearly" changes it enough.


How would you like it if your home mortgage rate was 6% larger? How about your penis?


Well, those aren't "odds" situations so they're not a very good barometer. In odds situations, one percentage point one way means a drop in percentage the other way.

For the second example, I think that my argument that 6% doesn't change it that much holds up. When you're big, you're big, bro.

_________________
Curious Hair wrote:
I'm a big dumb shitlib baby
Top
 Profile  
 
leashyourkids
PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 4:09 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 7:56 am
Posts: 32234
Location: A sterile, homogeneous suburb
pizza_Place: Pizza Cucina
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
leashyourkids wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
leashyourkids wrote:
You left out an adverb. Do you know what it was?
Nearly doesn't change the thought much.


6% isn't "that much."

So I think "nearly" changes it enough.
Well, lots of people seemed very interested in catching the Pirates to get the game at home. Why didn't you and Kirkwood tell them all that it was nearly meaningless?


It's funny you say that. Among friends, I've been saying just that for weeks. That's why you weren't aware.

_________________
Curious Hair wrote:
I'm a big dumb shitlib baby
Top
 Profile  
 
leashyourkids
PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 4:11 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 7:56 am
Posts: 32234
Location: A sterile, homogeneous suburb
pizza_Place: Pizza Cucina
I will also let it slide that you are representing the difference as 6%. From the Cubs perspective "meaningless" would be 50%. As a road team, they would be at 47% (assuming the stat is right.) That's a 3% difference.

_________________
Curious Hair wrote:
I'm a big dumb shitlib baby
Top
 Profile  
 
FavreFan
PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 4:12 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Fri Jun 29, 2007 11:17 am
Posts: 72378
Location: Palatine
pizza_Place: Lou Malnatis
Pretty funny to hear Cub fans try to argue their way around the 6% thing (which is actually about 8%). It's impossible to argue that number is statistically irrelevant.

_________________
Fare you well, fare you well
I love you more than words can tell
Listen to the river sing sweet songs
To rock my soul
Top
 Profile  
 
Brick
PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 4:13 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Wed Jun 21, 2006 6:57 pm
Posts: 91932
Location: To the left of my post
leashyourkids wrote:
I will also let it slide that you are representing the difference as 6%. From the Cubs perspective "meaningless" would be 50%. As a road team, they would be at 47% (assuming the stat is right.) That's a 3% difference.
You'll let it slide because it is completely accurate.

Out of 100 chances, the home team will win 6 more times. That is 6%.

_________________
You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!
Top
 Profile  
 
good dolphin
PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 4:13 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Thu Feb 17, 2005 2:35 pm
Posts: 82152
denisdman wrote:
good dolphin wrote:
Kirkwood wrote:
the fixation on 6% when no context is known....


There are so many people who look bad in this thread. You don't have to be one of them.



Coming from king of the trolls, too funny. The Cubs have the 3rd best record in baseball, made the playoffs, and have an extra year of control with Bryant. It could not have worked out much better relative to any reasonable expectation on their 2015 season. And yet you fools still have things to gripe about with the way the Cubs handled their roster.

It is you and your legion of Cub trolls that looks really bad.


Everything you said is irrelevant to the discussion. The fact is that it could have worked out a little bit better and it was failure on both the baseball on business side that prevented it from happening. I know the Cubs will win on Wednesday but it would have taxed the team less and been better for the entire city if they had done so at home.

_________________
O judgment! Thou art fled to brutish beasts,
And men have lost their reason.
Top
 Profile  
 
City of Fools
PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 4:14 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Thu Jun 26, 2008 8:22 am
Posts: 15138
pizza_Place: Wha Happen?
FavreFan wrote:
Pretty funny to hear Cub fans try to argue their way around the 6% thing (which is actually about 8%). It's impossible to argue that number is statistically irrelevant.

the better argument is that a properly pitching Arrieta makes percentages irrelevant.

_________________
Ба́бушка гада́ла, да на́двое сказа́ла—то ли до́ждик, то ли снег, то ли бу́дет, то ли нет.
Top
 Profile  
 
Brick
PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 4:14 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Wed Jun 21, 2006 6:57 pm
Posts: 91932
Location: To the left of my post
City of Fools wrote:
FavreFan wrote:
Pretty funny to hear Cub fans try to argue their way around the 6% thing (which is actually about 8%). It's impossible to argue that number is statistically irrelevant.

the better argument is that a properly pitching Arrieta makes percentages irrelevant.
:lol: Oh boy.

_________________
You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!
Top
 Profile  
 
FavreFan
PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 4:15 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Fri Jun 29, 2007 11:17 am
Posts: 72378
Location: Palatine
pizza_Place: Lou Malnatis
City of Fools wrote:
FavreFan wrote:
Pretty funny to hear Cub fans try to argue their way around the 6% thing (which is actually about 8%). It's impossible to argue that number is statistically irrelevant.

the better argument is that a properly pitching Arrieta makes percentages irrelevant.

No, that's dumb too. If Arrieta pitches as well as has been, the Cubs should rightly be favored to win, but there is nothing that invalidates the small, but real, advantage that home field gives.

_________________
Fare you well, fare you well
I love you more than words can tell
Listen to the river sing sweet songs
To rock my soul
Top
 Profile  
 
312player
PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 4:16 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Sun Jan 30, 2011 10:15 am
Posts: 27591
pizza_Place: nick n vito's
good dolphin wrote:
My fellow north siders, the model was tested and retested. It held up to scrutiny. It was proven to be accurate both in theory and then in practice. We shall chalk it up as a misstep by Theo, albeit a trifling one. The greatness of Theo is that out of this mistake, he became an even better GM, as he showed his evolution on the subject by bringing up Schwarber prematurely to great success. I can only hope that my metrics provided the support needed to make this the championship season I know it will be.













The Polish runs deep in this one.

_________________
The Original Kid Cairo wrote:
Laurence Holmes is a fucking weirdo, a nerd in denial, and a wannabe. Not a very good radio host either.
Top
 Profile  
 
8675309
PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 4:17 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2011 7:42 pm
Posts: 1631
Location: Hinsdale
pizza_Place: Lugi's of Hong Kong
FavreFan wrote:
Pretty funny to hear Cub fans try to argue their way around the 6% thing (which is actually about 8%). It's impossible to argue that number is statistically irrelevant.


Image

_________________
Kenny Williams fell for the banana in the tailpipe
Top
 Profile  
 
good dolphin
PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 4:17 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Thu Feb 17, 2005 2:35 pm
Posts: 82152
denisdman wrote:
good dolphin wrote:
My fellow north siders, the model was tested and retested. It held up to scrutiny. It was proven to be accurate both in theory and then in practice. We shall chalk it up as a misstep by Theo, albeit a trifling one. The greatness of Theo is that out of this mistake, he became an even better GM, as he showed his evolution on the subject by bringing up Schwarber prematurely to great success. I can only hope that my metrics provided the support needed to make this the championship season I know it will be.


LOL, you're trying way too hard. But that's why we love you. The Cubs will be playing on Wednesday, while you'll simply be playing with yourself.


I have said for several days now that I will be watching the game cheering for my Cubs. However, as a practitioner of the erotic arts, I find absolutely nothing wrong with a night spent as you have described.

_________________
O judgment! Thou art fled to brutish beasts,
And men have lost their reason.
Top
 Profile  
 
good dolphin
PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 4:18 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Thu Feb 17, 2005 2:35 pm
Posts: 82152
rogers park bryan wrote:
There is a legitimate line of thinking that they are better off on the road


not legitimate, but you'll find some who hold that thought

_________________
O judgment! Thou art fled to brutish beasts,
And men have lost their reason.
Top
 Profile  
 
denisdman
PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 4:18 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Thu Jun 22, 2006 3:55 pm
Posts: 33067
Location: Wrigley
pizza_Place: Warren Buffet of Cock
good dolphin wrote:
denisdman wrote:
good dolphin wrote:
My fellow north siders, the model was tested and retested. It held up to scrutiny. It was proven to be accurate both in theory and then in practice. We shall chalk it up as a misstep by Theo, albeit a trifling one. The greatness of Theo is that out of this mistake, he became an even better GM, as he showed his evolution on the subject by bringing up Schwarber prematurely to great success. I can only hope that my metrics provided the support needed to make this the championship season I know it will be.


LOL, you're trying way too hard. But that's why we love you. The Cubs will be playing on Wednesday, while you'll simply be playing with yourself.


I have said for several days now that I will be watching the game cheering for my Cubs. However, as a practitioner of the erotic arts, I find absolutely nothing wrong with a night spent as you have described.


Good stuff all the way around. Enjoy the game and yourself!

_________________
Hawaii (fuck) You
Top
 Profile  
 
Kirkwood
PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 4:21 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Wed Jun 06, 2012 7:43 pm
Posts: 20537
pizza_Place: Joes Pizza
FavreFan wrote:
City of Fools wrote:
FavreFan wrote:
Pretty funny to hear Cub fans try to argue their way around the 6% thing (which is actually about 8%). It's impossible to argue that number is statistically irrelevant.

the better argument is that a properly pitching Arrieta makes percentages irrelevant.

No, that's dumb too. If Arrieta pitches as well as has been, the Cubs should rightly be favored to win, but there is nothing that invalidates the small, but real, advantage that home field gives.

@PNC - Cubs 6-4
@WRIGLEY - Cubs 5-4

Cubs better at PNC in 2015.
Top
 Profile  
 
Dr. Kenneth Noisewater
PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 4:22 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Fri Oct 20, 2006 9:15 pm
Posts: 48800
Location: Bohemian Club Annual World Power Consolidation Conference & Golf Outing
pizza_Place: World Fluoridation Conspiracy Pizza & WINGS!
One thing is certain.

The Cubs have, at least, a 47% better chance of winning a playoff game tomorrow than the White Sox do.

_________________
You know me like that.
Top
 Profile  
 
City of Fools
PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 4:24 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Thu Jun 26, 2008 8:22 am
Posts: 15138
pizza_Place: Wha Happen?
Kirkwood wrote:
FavreFan wrote:
City of Fools wrote:
FavreFan wrote:
Pretty funny to hear Cub fans try to argue their way around the 6% thing (which is actually about 8%). It's impossible to argue that number is statistically irrelevant.

the better argument is that a properly pitching Arrieta makes percentages irrelevant.

No, that's dumb too. If Arrieta pitches as well as has been, the Cubs should rightly be favored to win, but there is nothing that invalidates the small, but real, advantage that home field gives.

@PNC - Cubs 6-4
@WRIGLEY - Cubs 5-4

Cubs better at PNC in 2015.

don't talk statistics! Talk more statistics!

_________________
Ба́бушка гада́ла, да на́двое сказа́ла—то ли до́ждик, то ли снег, то ли бу́дет, то ли нет.
Top
 Profile  
 
denisdman
PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 4:26 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Thu Jun 22, 2006 3:55 pm
Posts: 33067
Location: Wrigley
pizza_Place: Warren Buffet of Cock
Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
One thing is certain.

The Cubs have, at least, a 47% better chance of winning a playoff game tomorrow than the White Sox do.


Your perspective is always appreciated.

_________________
Hawaii (fuck) You
Top
 Profile  
 
good dolphin
PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 4:26 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Thu Feb 17, 2005 2:35 pm
Posts: 82152
312player wrote:
good dolphin wrote:
My fellow north siders, the model was tested and retested. It held up to scrutiny. It was proven to be accurate both in theory and then in practice. We shall chalk it up as a misstep by Theo, albeit a trifling one. The greatness of Theo is that out of this mistake, he became an even better GM, as he showed his evolution on the subject by bringing up Schwarber prematurely to great success. I can only hope that my metrics provided the support needed to make this the championship season I know it will be.













The Polish runs deep in this one.


I'm a good natured guy so I will take that as a compliment.

If it were intended another way, such as a perpetuation of a stereotype that Polish people are stupid, I would take off my internet glove, strike you across the face with it, throw it down on the ground and challenge you to a duel of comparative intelligences at dawn on the morn.

but I like to believe the best of others so, as a proud son of the people of the field, I thank you for recognizing my heritage

_________________
O judgment! Thou art fled to brutish beasts,
And men have lost their reason.


Last edited by good dolphin on Tue Oct 06, 2015 4:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Top
 Profile  
 
FavreFan
PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 4:27 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Fri Jun 29, 2007 11:17 am
Posts: 72378
Location: Palatine
pizza_Place: Lou Malnatis
Kirkwood wrote:
FavreFan wrote:
City of Fools wrote:
FavreFan wrote:
Pretty funny to hear Cub fans try to argue their way around the 6% thing (which is actually about 8%). It's impossible to argue that number is statistically irrelevant.

the better argument is that a properly pitching Arrieta makes percentages irrelevant.

No, that's dumb too. If Arrieta pitches as well as has been, the Cubs should rightly be favored to win, but there is nothing that invalidates the small, but real, advantage that home field gives.

@PNC - Cubs 6-4
@WRIGLEY - Cubs 5-4

Cubs better at PNC in 2015.

SSS

_________________
Fare you well, fare you well
I love you more than words can tell
Listen to the river sing sweet songs
To rock my soul
Top
 Profile  
 
leashyourkids
PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 4:29 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 7:56 am
Posts: 32234
Location: A sterile, homogeneous suburb
pizza_Place: Pizza Cucina
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
leashyourkids wrote:
I will also let it slide that you are representing the difference as 6%. From the Cubs perspective "meaningless" would be 50%. As a road team, they would be at 47% (assuming the stat is right.) That's a 3% difference.
You'll let it slide because it is completely accurate.

Out of 100 chances, the home team will win 6 more times. That is 6%.


If home field were completely meaningless, how many games would the away team win out of 100, on average?

_________________
Curious Hair wrote:
I'm a big dumb shitlib baby
Top
 Profile  
 
Dr. Kenneth Noisewater
PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 4:31 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Fri Oct 20, 2006 9:15 pm
Posts: 48800
Location: Bohemian Club Annual World Power Consolidation Conference & Golf Outing
pizza_Place: World Fluoridation Conspiracy Pizza & WINGS!
leashyourkids wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
leashyourkids wrote:
I will also let it slide that you are representing the difference as 6%. From the Cubs perspective "meaningless" would be 50%. As a road team, they would be at 47% (assuming the stat is right.) That's a 3% difference.
You'll let it slide because it is completely accurate.

Out of 100 chances, the home team will win 6 more times. That is 6%.


If home field were completely meaningless, how many games would the away team win out of 100, on average?


Ooooh, standard deviation talk! I love it!

_________________
You know me like that.
Top
 Profile  
 
312player
PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 4:32 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Sun Jan 30, 2011 10:15 am
Posts: 27591
pizza_Place: nick n vito's
So cubs have a higher win % @ PNC √
They are favored @ minus 110√
The Home team is 2-4 in Mlb play in games√
Both road teams are favored for this years play in games..After the Cubs and Astros win it will be home team 2-6 for play in games- 25% winning percentage.. Home field in MLB playoff games means absolutely nothing.

_________________
The Original Kid Cairo wrote:
Laurence Holmes is a fucking weirdo, a nerd in denial, and a wannabe. Not a very good radio host either.
Top
 Profile  
 
leashyourkids
PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 4:34 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 7:56 am
Posts: 32234
Location: A sterile, homogeneous suburb
pizza_Place: Pizza Cucina
Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
leashyourkids wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
leashyourkids wrote:
I will also let it slide that you are representing the difference as 6%. From the Cubs perspective "meaningless" would be 50%. As a road team, they would be at 47% (assuming the stat is right.) That's a 3% difference.
You'll let it slide because it is completely accurate.

Out of 100 chances, the home team will win 6 more times. That is 6%.


If home field were completely meaningless, how many games would the away team win out of 100, on average?


Ooooh, standard deviation talk! I love it!


I'm actually on vacation this week and out fishing today. The fact that I am in a statistics debate on my phone is proof that technology is the devil.

_________________
Curious Hair wrote:
I'm a big dumb shitlib baby
Top
 Profile  
 
Rod
PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 4:34 pm 
Offline
Site Admin
User avatar

Joined: Sun Apr 04, 2010 10:00 am
Posts: 79465
Location: Ravenswood Manor
pizza_Place: Pete's
312player wrote:
So cubs have a higher win % @ PNC √
They are favored @ minus 110√
The Home team is 2-4 in Mlb play in games√
Both road teams are favored for this years play in games..After the Cubs and Astros win it will be home team 2-6 for play in games- 25% winning percentage.. Home field in MLB playoff games means absolutely nothing.


Maybe the Cubs should sell Wrigley for condos and play all their games on the road.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Matthew, Tulsi, and Don
Top
 Profile  
 
Brick
PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 4:37 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Wed Jun 21, 2006 6:57 pm
Posts: 91932
Location: To the left of my post
leashyourkids wrote:
If home field were completely meaningless, how many games would the away team win out of 100, on average?
50.

If the odds were 99-1 what would the difference in the percentage be? Would it be 49%?

_________________
You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!
Top
 Profile  
 
good dolphin
PostPosted: Tue Oct 06, 2015 4:39 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Thu Feb 17, 2005 2:35 pm
Posts: 82152
Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
leashyourkids wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
leashyourkids wrote:
I will also let it slide that you are representing the difference as 6%. From the Cubs perspective "meaningless" would be 50%. As a road team, they would be at 47% (assuming the stat is right.) That's a 3% difference.
You'll let it slide because it is completely accurate.

Out of 100 chances, the home team will win 6 more times. That is 6%.


If home field were completely meaningless, how many games would the away team win out of 100, on average?


Ooooh, standard deviation talk! I love it!


Image

IF the queen had stones she'd be king

_________________
O judgment! Thou art fled to brutish beasts,
And men have lost their reason.
Top
 Profile  
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  Page 7 of 9
  [ 262 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1 ... 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9  Next

Board index » CHICAGO AND NATIONAL TEAMS » CHICAGO CUBS

All times are UTC - 6 hours [ DST ]

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 16 guests

You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum

Search for:
Jump to:  
Powered by phpBB® Forum Software © phpBB Group