312player wrote:
Yeah.. You are right about me not really understanding WAR..I don't like it and don't think its accurate.
How the fuck would you know that if you don't understand it?
Look, there are some basic "SABRmetric" concepts that are really unassailable. That is to say they are actually just simple mathematics. The concept of a Pythagorean record, for example. Yes, the "when" is important in an individual baseball game. Schwarber dropping a ball in the ninth inning of a tie game in the World Series would be huge. But over the course of a 162 game season, that "when" is rather insignificant. You can plug the numbers (runs scored and runs allowed) into the formula and the vast majority of the time the actual record will be within a game or two of the expected record based upon those runs. There is no arguing with that without looking foolish. So you have to ask yourself- assuming Kyle Schwarber is the hitter most Cub fans believe he is and the hitter he appeared to be in the 2015 postseason- are all those runs he drops in the runs scored column with his batting eye and prodigious power greater than the number of runs saved by some defensive wizard who hits 13 homers in left? To me, the answer is rather obvious.
And that gets us around to the idea of "randomness" and playoff "crapshoots". If you find a team that scores 625 runs and allows 700, that team is going to have 72 or 73 wins or very close to that number. There simply isn't a team that somehow produced such an output over 162 games where the runs fell in a manner so that they won 90 games. It doesn't exist. But in a three game series, it wouldn't be outlandish to believe a team could lose a game 16-0 and win the next two 1-0. Their Pythagorean record would be 0-3 but they would be moving on to the next round. That isn't necessarily evidence of randomness, although it might be. It's probably more accurate to say that in a short series, protecting outs becomes less critical as the "when" is much more important. And this is why a team like the Royals (along with manager Ned Yost!) is "built for the playoffs". They aren't subject to waiting for guys like Schwarber to hit that three run bomb which may not come in the next five games. That guy may have hit two in a Game 6 that never came. From what I can see, that's what makes the Royals a team to be reckoned with in the postseason rather than the hitting abilities of any specific players.
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) and the only real knock against them is that "They are a good but not dominant or legendary team," I will gladly take it.
