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 Post subject: Re: Jason Heyward
PostPosted: Sun Dec 13, 2015 2:08 pm 
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Don Tiny wrote:
Since it was asked ...

"William F. Leitch (born October 10, 1975 in Mattoon, Illinois) is a writer and the founding editor of the Gawker Media sports blog Deadspin. Leitch is a senior editor at Sports on Earth, a contributing editor at New York magazine, a contributor to The New York Times, GQ, Fast Company, and Slate, and has published four books ..."

Also, he's an avowed Cardinals fan, as one could tell from the opening words from his slightly overwrought but otherwise more or less fine screed.


Impressive.

And fuck STL.

:D


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 Post subject: Re: Jason Heyward
PostPosted: Mon Dec 14, 2015 12:16 am 
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I understand all the things that Heyward has to offer as an all-around ballplayer. but to pay 168 Million to someone who has been absolutely mediocre as a hitter baffles me. His power numbers ....13 homers and just 60 RBI in 2015 were awful. If he hit for a high average and stole 40 bases a year, it might make more sense. But he only has a .268 career average and is not a big stolen base guy either. I respectfully disagree with Theo on this decision.

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 Post subject: Re: Jason Heyward
PostPosted: Mon Dec 14, 2015 6:28 am 
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Elmhurst Steve wrote:
I understand all the things that Heyward has to offer as an all-around ballplayer. but to pay 168 Million to someone who has been absolutely mediocre as a hitter baffles me. His power numbers ....13 homers and just 60 RBI in 2015 were awful. If he hit for a high average and stole 40 bases a year, it might make more sense. But he only has a .268 career average and is not a big stolen base guy either. I respectfully disagree with Theo on this decision.


You seem to be stuck in measuring players by steroid era standards. Who are all the outfielders out there who are putting up giant numbers? Sure, you'd like your corner outfielders to hit with more power than this guy, but you're acting like a guy who hits .270 and gets on at a .360 clip is mediocre, and that just isn't the case. The bigger issue is that if you play him in center he's going to lose a lot of that defensive "value" that makes him a darling of the modern statistics. But he figures to be hitting his peak. His best three seasons are quite likely to be his next three and then he can opt out and the Cubs can let somebody else sign him to a bad contract when he's 30.

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 Post subject: Re: Jason Heyward
PostPosted: Mon Dec 14, 2015 7:50 am 
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Since it was brought up, and probably will be brought up more.

https://twitter.com/jaysonst/status/675034989893918721
Was seeking $24 million a year for 8 or 9 years.

Got $23 million a year. So he took $1 million less than what he was seeking but that is fairly common.

However, it means that the offer of $200 million almost certainly was for more years. That's why it wasn't even reported how many years it was.

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 Post subject: Re: Jason Heyward
PostPosted: Mon Dec 14, 2015 8:01 am 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
Since it was brought up, and probably will be brought up more.

https://twitter.com/jaysonst/status/675034989893918721
Was seeking $24 million a year for 8 or 9 years.

Got $23 million a year. So he took $1 million less than what he was seeking but that is fairly common.

However, it means that the offer of $200 million almost certainly was for more years. That's why it wasn't even reported how many years it was.


That also doesn't contemplate the value of the opt-outs which likely weren't part of the other deals.

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 Post subject: Re: Jason Heyward
PostPosted: Mon Dec 14, 2015 8:26 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
sinicalypse wrote:
i heard amattacola telling people point blank YOU HAVE JASON HEYWARD FOR 8 YEARS, but i'd be really surprised if that's the case.


If it is the case, it likely means something went disastrously wrong with Heyward (or the market for baseball players).

Or the Cubs re-sign him


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 Post subject: Re: Jason Heyward
PostPosted: Mon Dec 14, 2015 8:29 am 
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Curious Hair wrote:
Why should I believe that all these players are champing at the bit to win the World Series with the Cubs? Winning the Stanley Cup with the Toronto Maple Leafs would be just as immortalizing -- if not more, given the Maple Leafs' place in Canada relative to the Cubs' in the United States -- and yet we've seen year after year after year that valuable free agents would rather be injected with the Ebola virus than sign with Toronto because they don't want to be held accountable for their performance. (They also don't want to pay that high Ontario income tax and hear the wives they cheat on bitch about the snow.)

I enjoy the hockey comparisons you frequently make.


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 Post subject: Re: Jason Heyward
PostPosted: Mon Dec 14, 2015 8:33 am 
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pittmike wrote:
Frank Coztansa wrote:
He wouldn't be a top ten player if he didn't sign with the Cubs.



Right. He signed with the Cubs and they started making his HOF plaque.

No, he's top 10 in WAR. That was true last week before he signed.


I feel like you guys are trying less


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 Post subject: Re: Jason Heyward
PostPosted: Mon Dec 14, 2015 8:33 am 
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I'm trying to figure out what's so objectionable about pointing out that the Leafs have blown goats in free agency and the Cubs haven't done a hell of a lot better until all the fanfare this winter, and that the pressure of drought-busting in a major media market isn't as appealing to the players themselves as we want it to be.

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 Post subject: Re: Jason Heyward
PostPosted: Mon Dec 14, 2015 8:39 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Elmhurst Steve wrote:
I understand all the things that Heyward has to offer as an all-around ballplayer. but to pay 168 Million to someone who has been absolutely mediocre as a hitter baffles me. His power numbers ....13 homers and just 60 RBI in 2015 were awful. If he hit for a high average and stole 40 bases a year, it might make more sense. But he only has a .268 career average and is not a big stolen base guy either. I respectfully disagree with Theo on this decision.


You seem to be stuck in measuring players by steroid era standards. Who are all the outfielders out there who are putting up giant numbers? Sure, you'd like your corner outfielders to hit with more power than this guy, but you're acting like a guy who hits .270 and gets on at a .360 clip is mediocre, and that just isn't the case. The bigger issue is that if you play him in center he's going to lose a lot of that defensive "value" that makes him a darling of the modern statistics. But he figures to be hitting his peak. His best three seasons are quite likely to be his next three and then he can opt out and the Cubs can let somebody else sign him to a bad contract when he's 30.

It's not even that

Its the resistance to OBP. I iknow people love and are used to average but the fact is OBP is more important

He'll probably hit 20 homeruns this year, too


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 Post subject: Re: Jason Heyward
PostPosted: Mon Dec 14, 2015 8:41 am 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
sinicalypse wrote:
i heard amattacola telling people point blank YOU HAVE JASON HEYWARD FOR 8 YEARS, but i'd be really surprised if that's the case.


If it is the case, it likely means something went disastrously wrong with Heyward (or the market for baseball players).

Or the Cubs re-sign him


Right. But that would be really dumb and anti-Theo's repeatedly professed philosophy, as you will undoubtedly be paying for past performance rather than future performance at that point.

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 Post subject: Re: Jason Heyward
PostPosted: Mon Dec 14, 2015 8:42 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
sinicalypse wrote:
i heard amattacola telling people point blank YOU HAVE JASON HEYWARD FOR 8 YEARS, but i'd be really surprised if that's the case.


If it is the case, it likely means something went disastrously wrong with Heyward (or the market for baseball players).

Or the Cubs re-sign him


Right. But that would be really dumb and anti-Theo's repeatedly professed philosophy, as you will undoubtedly be paying for past performance rather than future performance at that point.

Yea, he's never going to be able to stick to that. Its just a nice thing to say and try and ascribe to as much as possible.


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 Post subject: Re: Jason Heyward
PostPosted: Mon Dec 14, 2015 8:43 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
anti-Theo's repeatedly professed philosophy, as you will undoubtedly be paying for past performance rather than future performance at that point.
That is already the case with Zobrist and Lackey.

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 Post subject: Re: Jason Heyward
PostPosted: Mon Dec 14, 2015 8:44 am 
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Frank Coztansa wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
anti-Theo's repeatedly professed philosophy, as you will undoubtedly be paying for past performance rather than future performance at that point.
That is already the case with Zobrist and Lackey.

Lackey has a two year deal, so no. They're paying him to be a #3 and that's what he should be going forward even though he was a #2 for a great team last year.

Zobrist is kinda true.


You're really mailing it in lately, Frank


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 Post subject: Re: Jason Heyward
PostPosted: Mon Dec 14, 2015 8:45 am 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
Yea, he's never going to be able to stick to that. Its just a nice thing to say and try and ascribe to as much as possible.


But he is smart enough to know that in the event Heyward opts out in three years, re-signing him can only be a disaster. The first opt out is favorable for both sides.

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 Post subject: Re: Jason Heyward
PostPosted: Mon Dec 14, 2015 8:48 am 
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I don't care if its a two year deal, they are paying $30 million to a pitcher who is almost 40.

He was a #2 last year because (arguably) the Cardinals best pitcher went down with an injury.

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 Post subject: Re: Jason Heyward
PostPosted: Mon Dec 14, 2015 8:51 am 
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Frank Coztansa wrote:
I don't care if its a two year deal, they are paying $30 million to a pitcher who is almost 40.

He was a #2 last year because (arguably) the Cardinals best pitcher went down with an injury.

They're not paying for the past. Any projection of the next two years would have Lackey as a 3ish pitcher and that's about how much they cost in free agency.


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 Post subject: Re: Jason Heyward
PostPosted: Mon Dec 14, 2015 8:53 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Elmhurst Steve wrote:
I understand all the things that Heyward has to offer as an all-around ballplayer. but to pay 168 Million to someone who has been absolutely mediocre as a hitter baffles me. His power numbers ....13 homers and just 60 RBI in 2015 were awful. If he hit for a high average and stole 40 bases a year, it might make more sense. But he only has a .268 career average and is not a big stolen base guy either. I respectfully disagree with Theo on this decision.


You seem to be stuck in measuring players by steroid era standards. Who are all the outfielders out there who are putting up giant numbers? Sure, you'd like your corner outfielders to hit with more power than this guy, but you're acting like a guy who hits .270 and gets on at a .360 clip is mediocre, and that just isn't the case. The bigger issue is that if you play him in center he's going to lose a lot of that defensive "value" that makes him a darling of the modern statistics. But he figures to be hitting his peak. His best three seasons are quite likely to be his next three and then he can opt out and the Cubs can let somebody else sign him to a bad contract when he's 30.



I agree entirely about the CF rather than RF issue. If they were to still get a good CF and keep Heyward in RF and traded Soler for another starter, I would understand that. While Soler has a high ceiling as a hitter, he gets injured a lot, doesn't hit in cold and plays a lousy RF. he's got a great arm, but takes awful routes on balls hit to the outfield and is not fond of trying to catch anything hit to or near the wall. if they had a guy like Span in CF and Heyward in RF....wow! That outfield defense would be amazing. The pitching staff would probably throw a little party if they managed to do that. I assume they will only keep Heyward in CF till Almora is ready and then he will take over CF with Heyward moving to RF. In a dream world, Soler would move to LF and Schwarber would have developed his catching skills enough to move behind the plate. But I don't see that happening, as Schwarber's skills behind the dish are sorely lacking and I doubt he will ever catch full time.

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 Post subject: Re: Jason Heyward
PostPosted: Mon Dec 14, 2015 8:56 am 
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Elmhurst Steve wrote:
...and Schwarber would have developed his catching skills enough to move behind the plate. But I don't see that happening, as Schwarber's skills behind the dish are sorely lacking and I doubt he will ever catch full time.


Some dope called B&b on Friday and suggested that the Cubs send Schwarber to Iowa for the first three months of the season to work on catching because the Cubs are so good they don't need his bat at the beginning anyway. That wasn't you, was it?

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 Post subject: Re: Jason Heyward
PostPosted: Mon Dec 14, 2015 8:58 am 
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Frank Coztansa wrote:
I don't care if its a two year deal, they are paying $30 million to a pitcher who is almost 40.

He was a #2 last year because (arguably) the Cardinals best pitcher went down with an injury.


He had a 2.77 ERA and was 9th in Cy Young voting. He had an exceptional season and he may well win more games with the Cubs next season, as they will score more runs for him than the Cardinals did for him last year. His velocity remained consistent and there is no reason to think he won't be a solid #3. He was the only pitcher to beat the Cubs in the NLDS for the Cardinals.

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 Post subject: Re: Jason Heyward
PostPosted: Mon Dec 14, 2015 9:00 am 
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Elmhurst Steve wrote:
if they had a guy like Span in CF and Heyward in RF....wow! That outfield defense would be amazing. The pitching staff would probably throw a little party if they managed to do that.

Span has been a negative defender the last two years when he's managed to not be on the DL


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 Post subject: Re: Jason Heyward
PostPosted: Mon Dec 14, 2015 9:00 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Elmhurst Steve wrote:
...and Schwarber would have developed his catching skills enough to move behind the plate. But I don't see that happening, as Schwarber's skills behind the dish are sorely lacking and I doubt he will ever catch full time.


Some dope called B&b on Friday and suggested that the Cubs send Schwarber to Iowa for the first three months of the season to work on catching because the Cubs are so good they don't need his bat at the beginning anyway. That wasn't you, was it?


No it was not. His bat is too valuable to do that. In addition, his career will last longer if he's not catching. But most of all, I'm not sure he would ever become good enough behind the plate to make that make sense. I do believe he can become a decent LF.

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 Post subject: Re: Jason Heyward
PostPosted: Mon Dec 14, 2015 9:00 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Elmhurst Steve wrote:
...and Schwarber would have developed his catching skills enough to move behind the plate. But I don't see that happening, as Schwarber's skills behind the dish are sorely lacking and I doubt he will ever catch full time.


Some dope called B&b on Friday and suggested that the Cubs send Schwarber to Iowa for the first three months of the season to work on catching because the Cubs are so good they don't need his bat at the beginning anyway. That wasn't you, was it?

:lol:


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 Post subject: Re: Jason Heyward
PostPosted: Mon Dec 14, 2015 9:04 am 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
Elmhurst Steve wrote:
if they had a guy like Span in CF and Heyward in RF....wow! That outfield defense would be amazing. The pitching staff would probably throw a little party if they managed to do that.

Span has been a negative defender the last two years when he's managed to not be on the DL


Bullshit on the negative defender crap. Show me any defensive grading of him as negative. The injury concern is the only issue. But if the hip is 100% he would be my #1 choice of free agent CF candidates.

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 Post subject: Re: Jason Heyward
PostPosted: Mon Dec 14, 2015 9:07 am 
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Elmhurst Steve wrote:
and there is no reason to think he won't be a solid #3.
He is 37 and has had Tommy John surgery. Not saying he is only going to start 8 games for the Cub, but that is absolutely a reason for concern.

And I am sure 'arps is in the process of pasting a link here of Span's defensive metrics as I type.

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 Post subject: Re: Jason Heyward
PostPosted: Mon Dec 14, 2015 9:10 am 
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Elmhurst Steve wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
Elmhurst Steve wrote:
if they had a guy like Span in CF and Heyward in RF....wow! That outfield defense would be amazing. The pitching staff would probably throw a little party if they managed to do that.

Span has been a negative defender the last two years when he's managed to not be on the DL


Bullshit on the negative defender crap. Show me any defensive grading of him as negative. The injury concern is the only issue. But if the hip is 100% he would be my #1 choice of free agent CF candidates.

Defensive WAR in 2015: -1.0
Defensive WAR in 2014: -0.1

He's been a negative defender in 4 of his 8 seasons. His best year was a 2.4 in 2012 when he was 28 years old. He's now 32 and trending down.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/spande01.shtml


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 Post subject: Re: Jason Heyward
PostPosted: Mon Dec 14, 2015 9:11 am 
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Maybe Span has a bit of a lighter skin shade than Heyward does, which is why Steve has such a boner for him.

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 Post subject: Re: Jason Heyward
PostPosted: Mon Dec 14, 2015 9:23 am 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
Frank Coztansa wrote:
I don't care if its a two year deal, they are paying $30 million to a pitcher who is almost 40.

He was a #2 last year because (arguably) the Cardinals best pitcher went down with an injury.

They're not paying for the past. Any projection of the next two years would have Lackey as a 3ish pitcher and that's about how much they cost in free agency.


If by 3ish, you mean a 3-4, you are correct. He isn't in the group of rag tags that make up the fifth spot for the overwhelming majority of the league

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 Post subject: Re: Jason Heyward
PostPosted: Mon Dec 14, 2015 9:24 am 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
Elmhurst Steve wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
Elmhurst Steve wrote:
if they had a guy like Span in CF and Heyward in RF....wow! That outfield defense would be amazing. The pitching staff would probably throw a little party if they managed to do that.

Span has been a negative defender the last two years when he's managed to not be on the DL


Bullshit on the negative defender crap. Show me any defensive grading of him as negative. The injury concern is the only issue. But if the hip is 100% he would be my #1 choice of free agent CF candidates.

Defensive WAR in 2015: -1.0
Defensive WAR in 2014: -0.1

He's been a negative defender in 4 of his 8 seasons. His best year was a 2.4 in 2012 when he was 28 years old. He's now 32 and trending down.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/spande01.shtml


I would guess that was because of the problems with his hip that he had the surgery on. If that hip is good now, he will be a plus defender in CF. Better than Fowler easily and then Heyward stays in RF where he is best. Plus, Span is a very good leadoff hitter.

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 Post subject: Re: Jason Heyward
PostPosted: Mon Dec 14, 2015 9:29 am 
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Frank Coztansa wrote:
Elmhurst Steve wrote:
and there is no reason to think he won't be a solid #3.
He is 37 and has had Tommy John surgery. Not saying he is only going to start 8 games for the Cub, but that is absolutely a reason for concern.

And I am sure 'arps is in the process of pasting a link here of Span's defensive metrics as I type.


Having had Tommy John is probably one reason he has maintained excellent velocity at his age. Many pitchers after the procedure increase their velocity. He threw over 200 innings and was still excellent in the playoffs, so there were no signs he was wearing down. I'll bet you right now that he wins more than the 13 games he won in 2015.

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