So, about the same as Fowler.

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not about

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O judgment! Thou art fled to brutish beasts,
And men have lost their reason.

Pretty much his career numbers. .250 is a little low.

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Elections have consequences.

Could have said the same of the Soxes in 03. Ya just never know.

First part maybe, second part is overstating it.

Certain teams have a better shot but the anything can happen factor is higher than other sports because of such short sample sizes.

I dont think anyone has said that and if they did, they're crazy.

Or are you doing your all or nothing thing?

So dolphin expects Heyward to have his worst season in the last 5. Only his sophomore slump year would be worse than those numbers.

Ok, I've never dug into the details of WAR much but....

.250/.346/.411/.757 17hr 46 rbi 20SB WAR 2.2

.293/.359/.439/.797 13hr 60rbi 23SB WAR 6.5

Why the huge difference in WAR?

Defense? Heyward has pretty much equivalent traditional fielding numbers as Fowler. Not enough to warrant this huge difference in WAR.

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Fowler is a -1.0 in dWAR
Heyward is a +2.0

There ya go. dWar skews the WAR numbers too much sometimes but you'll find many articles online explaining how Heyward and Gordon are really that good.

I think with the Cubs plan to have DH's in RF and LF it's even a bigger thing to have a plus defender out there.

You can't just say "all or nothing" every time.

Tell me how much of playoff baseball is just random chance and how much is not. Is it almost all luck? Is it mostly luck? Is it only a little luck?

Educate me.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

I already broke it down to a level I know you understand in the first reply. It doesnt get any simpler than that.

http://score670.com/phpBB/viewtopic.php?p=2380409#p2380409

You just have staked out your "omg, its all random right? nothing matters? " stance and dont want to come off it.


And I only point out the all or nothing thing as often as you do it. It's your go to move to use hyperbole and exaggeration in these discussions. It would be silly to even deny it.

plus defender in RF. We'll see if he has the same impact with the step up in difficulty.

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O judgment! Thou art fled to brutish beasts,
And men have lost their reason.

We just might (if he plays CF)

you think he's going to drop two full points? I would think not, but it's possible.

Heyward will always be a polarizing player with value that is hard to determine.


I think if the Cubs make the playoffs though, having guys like Heyward in the outfield, Lackey in the rotation, and Zobrist in the lineup will be huge.

step up? CF is not more difficult to play than RF! Hasn't anyone played baseball even at the high school level?

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Ба́бушка гада́ла, да на́двое сказа́ла—то ли до́ждик, то ли снег, то ли бу́дет, то ли нет.

No I haven't. I just want you to answer the question since I have misunderstood it.

Tell me how much of playoff baseball is just random chance and how much is not. Is it almost all luck? Is it mostly luck? Is it only a little luck?

Because I wasn't the one who invented the idea that the baseball playoffs are random, or mostly random, or even somewhat random.

We had a long chat on coc where people basically said "The job of the GM is to get a team to the playoffs and then it is mostly random(or however it was phrased)". So, just answer the question and that becomes my default stance. How much luck is involved in the baseball playoffs? You can even put a percentage onto it if you want.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

baseball playoffs are random and yet I will hold the Cubs responsible if they don't make the WS.

Both are true for me. You set up a hype machine, you are responsible for said hype machine collapsing, even if it's outside your control. You set it up.

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Ба́бушка гада́ла, да на́двое сказа́ла—то ли до́ждик, то ли снег, то ли бу́дет, то ли нет.

How can you not understand this?

You get that the more games played the more likely the best teams will win because of the sample size right?

That's essentially the whole thing. It doesnt mean that every team has an identical chance (like the 80-82 Padres vs the 102 win Yankees)

It means that there is a higher chance for the randomness of the game to enter in. Over 162 the best team will win. In one Wild Card game or a 5 game series one bad bounce can change things and there is no time for those bad bounces to even out like in the regular season.

Yes. CF is harder.

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Be well

GO BEARS!!!

I want to know how much of a factor it is.
You seem to be the one stuck on "all or nothing" now. I just want to know your opinion on how much luck is involved. You refuse to answer it. Is it almost all luck? Is it mostly luck? Is it only a little luck? Give a percentage if you want.
See, when I read the bold text I can't help but see that as you saying that series comes down to one random play. Your example was that "one bad bounce" can cause a team to lose or win a whole series.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

Huh?

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Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Matthew, Tulsi, and Don

Classic.

I have to give you a percentage? How would I even begin to calculate that?

IMO, the more games played = less randomness. NBA and NHL way less random than MLB and NFL

If you dont understand that I dont know what to tellyou.


I guess you are not comfortable with the randomness of baseball. Yes, a ball bouncing two feet to the left or right can change a game and series.

Is it likely that it all comes down to one play? No. Is it way more likely to have a strong effect in 15 games vs 162? OF course.

This is a weird one.

CF overall is harder. In Wrigely, RF is kinda weird and might be close

I said you could give a percentage if you wanted.

Why is it so hard to answer this: "Is it almost all luck? Is it mostly luck? Is it only a little luck?".

And of course more games played = less randomness. I just want to know much random it is.
Almost everything has some degree of randomness. I just want to know how much. You told me I was wrong for thinking that people thought the playoffs were random, so I want to be corrected. Please correct me. Tell me how random it is. You're my only hope.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

Why, yes I did Hub. I even sucked so bad they put me in right field on occasion.

If CF is easier, move Soler there and keep your GG RF in RF. That should result in Soler having a better defensive year at the easier position.

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O judgment! Thou art fled to brutish beasts,
And men have lost their reason.

Reading the ball is harder from CF than a corner spot.

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Rick Hahn is the best GM in baseball.

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Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Matthew, Tulsi, and Don

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So one last time, since rpb called me out for being wrong.

Baseball playoffs: "Is it almost all luck? Is it mostly luck? Is it only a little luck?".

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

It varies from year to year. But the chance of randomness affecting the games is higher because of the small sample size.

You know what a small sample size is. Apply that knowledge here.