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PostPosted: Tue Dec 15, 2015 1:28 pm 
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Lol @ Shelby Miller not being over .500 this year.

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 15, 2015 1:36 pm 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
Soler for Ender Inciarte?


If he was part of a larger deal, maybe. I would rather they use Soler for pitching.


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PostPosted: Tue Dec 15, 2015 1:40 pm 
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Big Chicagoan wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
Soler for Ender Inciarte?


If he was part of a larger deal, maybe. I would rather they use Soler for pitching.




If Soler is going for an arm in a package with Baez and some garbage..better off waiting til July and see what A's want for Gray.

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 15, 2015 1:48 pm 
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312player wrote:
Big Chicagoan wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
Soler for Ender Inciarte?


If he was part of a larger deal, maybe. I would rather they use Soler for pitching.




If Soler is going for an arm in a package with Baez and some garbage..better off waiting til July and see what A's want for Gray.


that leaves the opportunity to expose both Baez and Soler

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 15, 2015 1:50 pm 
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good dolphin wrote:
312player wrote:
Big Chicagoan wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
Soler for Ender Inciarte?


If he was part of a larger deal, maybe. I would rather they use Soler for pitching.




If Soler is going for an arm in a package with Baez and some garbage..better off waiting til July and see what A's want for Gray.


that leaves the opportunity to expose both Baez and Soler

Or time for the Cubs and the league to realize both are going to have great careers. Both will have several .800 OPS seasons.

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 15, 2015 1:51 pm 
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of course

I meant expose how great they are resulting in trading both of them for such a mild return as Sonny Gray to be ridiculous

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 15, 2015 1:55 pm 
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good dolphin wrote:
of course

I meant expose how great they are resulting in trading both of them for such a mild return as Sonny Gray to be ridiculous

Wholeheartedly agree!

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 15, 2015 2:01 pm 
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good dolphin wrote:
312player wrote:
Big Chicagoan wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
Soler for Ender Inciarte?


If he was part of a larger deal, maybe. I would rather they use Soler for pitching.




If Soler is going for an arm in a package with Baez and some garbage..better off waiting til July and see what A's want for Gray.


that leaves the opportunity to expose both Baez and Soler




Baez yeah..he's not good..but Soler is legit and will only be exposed as a hell of a hitter with a great arm in RF. The hope for me is Soler stays... You can't hide baez ..he's just not good.

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 15, 2015 2:37 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
We have a basic philosophical difference here that can't be proven. I don't care about "run support" because I don't believe in it. You believe that the ERA (or other ancillary stats) define the pitcher and that his record is incidental. I believe the record defines the pitcher and his other numbers are incidental.

Do you not believe in the mathematics behind statistical analysis? Obviously there are a lot of phonies out there (like Dan Bernstein) who don't understand the statistics, and I won't claim to be an expert myself having only taken one undergraduate course in the subject, but it is definitely possible to prove this. I'll see if I can dig up an original source for this study, but clearly large statistical evidence it out there as to correlation between run support and W/L record. Any anecdotal evidence to the contrary is not scientifically relevant.

From http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2081 ... misleading:
Quote:
As well, a regression between the three variables (W-L%, ERA, and run support, the latter two standardized) shows that every point of ERA affects W-L% by -0.08, while every run of run support affects W-L% by 0.07. There's minimal difference between the effects of ERA and run support on W-L%.

It would also be possible to look at year-to-year correlations between the same pitcher from year to year and see which is more stable, W/L record, ERA, or any other advanced metric of your choosing. I don't have the expertise to do this, but I know enough to know it can be done to prove or disprove your unsupported (except by anecdote) assertions.

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 15, 2015 3:44 pm 
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Here's a really nice tool that provides evidence for the relative lack of control a pitcher has over W/L compared to ERA:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/tool-bas ... rrelation/

When you plug year 1 W/L percentage vs year 2 W/L percentage, you get only at 0.075 correlation at 95% confidence. But if you plug ERA in to the same calculation, you get a 0.311 correlation. What this means, as far as I understand (and I am not an expert, so this may be a misinterpretation) is that a pitcher's ERA is much more predictive of that same pitcher's ERA the next year than the current W/L record is as a predictor of next year's W/L record.

So if W/L record is truly the measure of quality, then pitchers are all over the board from year to year. In any case, it's not useful as a predictive tool.

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 16, 2015 12:25 am 
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Kadomony wrote:
Here's a really nice tool that provides evidence for the relative lack of control a pitcher has over W/L compared to ERA:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/tool-bas ... rrelation/

When you plug year 1 W/L percentage vs year 2 W/L percentage, you get only at 0.075 correlation at 95% confidence. But if you plug ERA in to the same calculation, you get a 0.311 correlation. What this means, as far as I understand (and I am not an expert, so this may be a misinterpretation) is that a pitcher's ERA is much more predictive of that same pitcher's ERA the next year than the current W/L record is as a predictor of next year's W/L record.

So if W/L record is truly the measure of quality, then pitchers are all over the board from year to year. In any case, it's not useful as a predictive tool.

You used math to discuss baseball. BAD MOVE!

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PostPosted: Mon Dec 21, 2015 8:58 am 
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I hate being that guy....but why hasn't Theo signed that extension yet?

Is he setting things up for McLeod to take over? (I say McLeod because he signed a deal already but Hoyer has not.) Is he looking for a way out or just simply holding out for a deal that tops Friedman's out in LA?

I'm a little nervous.


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 21, 2015 9:03 am 
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Theo isn't leaving yet. His HOF bid requires the championship.

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PostPosted: Mon Dec 21, 2015 2:00 pm 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
Peoria Matt wrote:
chaspoppcap wrote:
Question to the group. I thought the big problem was depth in starting pitching? Why is he going after relievers and middle relief?


Agreed. This staff will not win a World Series. Arietta will not be as good. Lackey? Meh. And then it's the Hammel, Hendricks, cast of thousands.

But I think a trade will be made.

Still don't know why Buehrle isn't considered.

You left out Lester. Kind of a big part of the rotation

And Buehrle sucks now.


Buehrle threw 198 innings with an above average ERA, in what universe does this suck?


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 21, 2015 2:08 pm 
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One Post wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
Peoria Matt wrote:
chaspoppcap wrote:
Question to the group. I thought the big problem was depth in starting pitching? Why is he going after relievers and middle relief?


Agreed. This staff will not win a World Series. Arietta will not be as good. Lackey? Meh. And then it's the Hammel, Hendricks, cast of thousands.

But I think a trade will be made.

Still don't know why Buehrle isn't considered.

You left out Lester. Kind of a big part of the rotation

And Buehrle sucks now.


Buehrle threw 198 innings with an above average ERA, in what universe does this suck?

He was very good for a few months and then fell off a cliff at the end of the year and he's old. Im guessing that wasn't just a bump in the road. Maybe it was a mysterious injury.

Let me amend

He was fucking terrible for the last two months of the season.


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 21, 2015 2:10 pm 
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Royals postseason rotation was Cueto, Volquez, Ventura, and Chris Young. They had a 4.68 ERA in the 2015 postseason.

Cubs' rotation is fine.

If you go by 2015 postseason results, Arrieta, Lester, Lackey and Hendricks would be fine. 4.13 ERA. Not amazing, but should be serviceable enough for what we hope the Cubs offense will produce.

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PostPosted: Mon Dec 21, 2015 2:21 pm 
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Matches Malone wrote:
I hate being that guy....but why hasn't Theo signed that extension yet?

Is he setting things up for McLeod to take over? (I say McLeod because he signed a deal already but Hoyer has not.) Is he looking for a way out or just simply holding out for a deal that tops Friedman's out in LA?

I'm a little nervous.


Rickett's was on air last week or so and this was addressed. He sounded pretty confident about getting Theo's new deal done. I believe He'll sign another 5 year deal.

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PostPosted: Mon Dec 21, 2015 3:03 pm 
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walkrman5 wrote:
He'll

nice.

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 23, 2015 9:55 am 
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It's not a trade, but perhaps a development worth noting. Baez is playing CF in winter ball and doing well at the position so far. It is highly unlikely they would go into the season with Baez in CF, but if Baez gets extended time in spring training in CF and looks good there, it could mean they have a good option should Soler have another injury that sidelines him, with Heyward moving back to RF. I like Baez and believe he will be a good player, if not for the Cubs, for some team. Good speed, plus power and versatility in the field. He showed he could hit for a higher average last year, with more contact than in 2014. If that continues to trend, he can be a star player.

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 23, 2015 11:34 am 
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He's also light-skinned.


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 23, 2015 3:19 pm 
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released Brendan Ryan

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 23, 2015 3:25 pm 
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Signed Brandon Gomes to minor league deal and claimed Olmos, again, from the Orioles.


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 23, 2015 8:47 pm 
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RFDC wrote:
released Brendan Ryan


yeah,that's 1 mil shot in the ass....Thanks Theo!

Last week the Yankees traded Brendan Ryan to the Cubs as the player to be named later in the Starlin Castro-for-Adam Warren swap and today they released the veteran infielder.

Ryan already exercised his $1 million player option for 2016, so the Cubs will be on the hook for that and presumably his inclusion in the trade was simply intended to balance the salaries a bit given Castro’s much larger contract.

Ryan has long been one of the majors’ best defensive shortstops, but he’s a career .234 hitter with a paltry .610 OPS and basically matched those numbers for the Yankees in 2015. He should be able to find another gig as a utility infielder, but may have to do so on a minor-league contract.

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 23, 2015 8:56 pm 
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Now this is a guy the Sox should go dumpster diving for. Forget about Olt, Turner and those other shit buckets. This guy can help them in a position of need.


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 23, 2015 8:58 pm 
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I know Theo is all about the lumber but a quality glove guy is good to keep in reserve.

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 23, 2015 8:59 pm 
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:lol: oh jimmy dont ever change

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PostPosted: Wed Dec 23, 2015 9:03 pm 
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RFDC wrote:
:lol: oh jimmy dont ever change


That's me!


(Meatball,not a Turd!)


Image

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PostPosted: Fri Dec 25, 2015 10:53 am 
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jimmypasta wrote:
RFDC wrote:
released Brendan Ryan


yeah,that's 1 mil shot in the ass....Thanks Theo!

Last week the Yankees traded Brendan Ryan to the Cubs as the player to be named later in the Starlin Castro-for-Adam Warren swap and today they released the veteran infielder.

Ryan already exercised his $1 million player option for 2016, so the Cubs will be on the hook for that and presumably his inclusion in the trade was simply intended to balance the salaries a bit given Castro’s much larger contract.

Ryan has long been one of the majors’ best defensive shortstops, but he’s a career .234 hitter with a paltry .610 OPS and basically matched those numbers for the Yankees in 2015. He should be able to find another gig as a utility infielder, but may have to do so on a minor-league contract.


I think that his release was always intended. I believe you are right, in that the Cubs took Ryan in the deal to offset somewhat, the fact the Yankees were taking on Castro's salary entirely. I am 100% in favor of this move, as there was no space on the roster for Ryan. He's just too weak a hitter.

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PostPosted: Fri Dec 25, 2015 11:41 am 
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Elmhurst Steve wrote:
He's just too weak a hitter.


David Ross wrote:
Agreed


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PostPosted: Fri Dec 25, 2015 11:27 pm 
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Baez.can do what Ryan does defensively and hit way better.

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