Depends. Some luck is involved. A wildcard team can get hot at the right time and find themselves in the WS. A 120 win team can slump at the wrong time and get swept. Some players appear to handle the challenge better than others.

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Be well

GO BEARS!!!

Your non-answer is the answer then.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

There is some luck in virtually everything that exists.

This all came from a conversation on coc that basically was Cubs fans saying "You can only control the regular season and then making the playoffs is mostly random" and that all GM's that make the playoffs did just as good of a job. It's also involved heavily with Billy Beane(which is why rpb won't actually answer the question) or to make excuses if you don't win the title.

So, I just want someone else to qualify it but no one ever will.

To me, the baseball playoffs are only a little bit of luck and mostly skill. The Cubs proved they were better than the Cardinals by dominating them and then the Mets did the same.

It should be an easy answer. My answer is that the playoffs are only a little luck and it is mostly skill.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

Heyward's defensive instincts are elite-level, whereas, your critical thinking skills are not.

We'll see if he has the same impact durrrrrr

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from The Sporting News January 2015

http://www.chrisnrae.com/being-an-mlb-super-team-doesnt-guarantee-anything-come-october/

The big take away is below:


Since the playoffs expanded in 1995, only four teams with the best overall regular-season record have won the World Series. And all four are split between the Yankees (1998 and 2009) and Red Sox (2007 and 2013).

Baseball is full of luck and randomness. Even Harvard says so. According to the university’s Sports Analysts Collective, that likens MLB’s playoff history with having every team draw straws to pick a winner.

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It's all based on pitching. In the playoffs you're not facing back of the rotation bums. If you have top starters and your pitching is sharp in the postseason, you're likely to go far.

Of course there is more randomness in a short series than there is over 162 games. That's why it's silly to talk about "run support". There is only a minute difference between the best offense and the worst over the course of a single game- or even over seven games. But the pitchers will show up. Or not.

If by "luck" you mean that a team plays better over the course of a series only to lose, well, that rarely happens. The 1960 World Series comes to mind as a time when it did.

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Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Matthew, Tulsi, and Don

Can I assume the Harvard answer is also your answer?

Looks like Harvard thinks that everyone has the same exact chance of winning it all. So, COF and Harvard have now said it.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

It's not minute. Team that scores 3.99 a game is a lot better (and harder to pitch against) than a team that scores 3.01. Reverse is true of ERA

I couldn't care less about your obsession with Billy Beane. I think he's a good GM. That's about it.

Then there is no randomness.

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Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Matthew, Tulsi, and Don

Of course there is.

Some randomness doesnt mean completely random.

You dont even disagree. It's just a matter of degree. You think 1.5 runs is significant but 0.99 is not. I disagree.

There has to be some reason you won't answer what to me is a very simple question.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

Kenny Williams did a great job in building a World Series team one year.
Billy Beane does a good job almost every year but never reached the ultimate prize.


I hope this concludes Rick's concern over playoff randomness.

Ive answered you several times with several examples.

It varies.

Whatever the ratio of skill to luck is, the luck part is more significant in smaller sample sizes.

No. I think it's random because we don't know when the hits are going to fall. A guy could average 1.6 hits per game, but those hits aren't likely to come in games when he faces 2015 Jake Arrieta. If you watched the 2015 postseason and the 1946 World Series you would have no doubt that Murphy was a better hitter than Williams. The randomness lies in the very fact that it takes many at-bats and a lot of time to see and to prove which hitter is better. And that's why 9 hitters batting four or five times each can't be counted on for "run support" no matter who they are. That's exactly where the randomness is.

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Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Matthew, Tulsi, and Don

The task of stopping the 2015 Blue Jays from scoring is much harder than stopping the 2015 Braves even in one single game.

I know you disagree.

You literally did not answer the question.

You explained a different concept though a few times which is the difference between the regular season and playoffs.

I'll make it even more clear though.

Baseball playoffs with the rules as they stand today with the number of games played and the lengths of series that it is currently set at: "Is it almost all luck? Is it mostly luck? Is it only a little luck?".

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

As usual, Ill apologize for the reality that not everything can be broken down exactly how you want it (a percentage, yes or no, true or false)

I dont know the percentage. I could make one up for you but that wouldnt be honest would it?

It might be 97/3 skill to luck. I dont know. I know that whatever the number is in baseball is higher than other sports due to the small sample size.



http://www.select-statistics.co.uk/article/blog-post/the-importance-and-effect-of-samplesize

This is a strange response that can be used by anyone for anything. Not everything has an answer!

I didn't ask you for a percentage in that question, or a yes or no answer, or true or false.

But that's cool. You and me can just trust what the Harvard study said that my guy THE INQUISITOR posted. The baseball playoffs are like drawing straws!

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

Only you could possible see it that way.

You, right there in that post just validated everything Ive ever said about you being obsessed with black/white.

You literally just said that unless it's yes/no or an exact number it ceases to be an answer. There is no gray area ever in anything.




Right, you gave me three pre selected choices.


BTW, If I was being pro Billy Beane, Id be on the It's ALL random side wouldnt I?

Well, you are mad that I asked for a percentage, which covers any number of different answers, from 0 to 100 and every number that exists. You then are mad that I did it a different way with only three options even though you know that the question was simply asking for a text version of the answer. For instance, equal parts luck and skill would have been an answer to the question.
How many choices do you need? I just want to know how much luck goes into the current MLB playoffs. That is it.
Yes. But, you don't think it is all random.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

RPB must be in some kinda "mood"....

edit: CF is harder. It's even harder when you have a beer-league quality LF next to you.

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separation anxiety

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O judgment! Thou art fled to brutish beasts,
And men have lost their reason.

in 2016

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O judgment! Thou art fled to brutish beasts,
And men have lost their reason.

"He's going to be great because I say he is."

durr, indeed

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O judgment! Thou art fled to brutish beasts,
And men have lost their reason.

That's a bad take IMO.. Baseball is no different than the NFL in crowning winners. Look @ those NY Giants teams. Look at all of Peyton Manning teams with home field and bye and don't even make the SB.

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Sounds like you are making a case that the regular season isn't the best indicator of who the best team is.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

the hardest thing to do in the OF is catch a ball hit directly at you, whether it is behind you or in front of you. Depth perception is difficult to gauge in LF and RF. CF, you can take any conceivable route to the ball and almost every hit is to your right or left rather than right at you. It's also easier to cover a field (assuming you have speed) when a manager flat out says "catch anything you can get to, even if it's in right or left".

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Ба́бушка гада́ла, да на́двое сказа́ла—то ли до́ждик, то ли снег, то ли бу́дет, то ли нет.

Of course I disagree.

It's not the same as a single pitcher's ERA. Jake Arrieta doesn't establish his 2.00 ERA by allowing ten runs one game and then pitching five shutouts. The performance of a single player is more likely to be consistent than counting on the majority of a nine man lineup to perform at their optimum in four or five at-bats. The Blue Jays don't average 6 runs per game by scoring 6 162 times. Sometimes they get shutout. Sometimes they score twenty. Arrieta never allows twenty.

And there's your playoff randomness. Good hitters are facing the best pitchers. Advantage: pitchers. Barry Bonds doesn't suck in the playoffs. The playoffs just happened to fall during a rare small stretch when he sucked. And facing the top pitchers didn't help him.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Matthew, Tulsi, and Don