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PostPosted: Tue Dec 15, 2015 2:34 pm 
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Pitchers can't go through bad stretches. Understood.

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 15, 2015 2:34 pm 
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IMU wrote:
Pitchers can't go through bad stretches. Understood.


They can and they do. That's how other pitchers get "run support".

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 15, 2015 2:48 pm 
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GoldenJet wrote:
http://harvardsportsanalysis.org/2013/09/undeserving-champions-examining-variance-in-the-postseason/

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MLB can lay claim to the least deserving postseason winner.


in 2016[/quote]




That's a bad take IMO.. Baseball is no different than the NFL in crowning winners. Look @ those NY Giants teams. Look at all of Peyton Manning teams with home field and bye and don't even make the SB.[/quote]Sounds like you are making a case that the regular season isn't the best indicator of who the best team is.[/quote]




I'm not sure, its a long season in any of the major sports. It felt like a cheap shot @ baseball . Who do you think wins the Super Bowl this season? Carolina is clearly the best team right now 3\4 of the way through the season. Patriots close 2nd. Whoever reps the NFC east doesn't belong in the post season, whoever reps the AFC South doesn't belong either. I'd put my dough on Seattle..

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 15, 2015 3:35 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Of course I disagree.

It's not the same as a single pitcher's ERA. Jake Arrieta doesn't establish his 2.00 ERA by allowing ten runs one game and then pitching five shutouts. The performance of a single player is more likely to be consistent than counting on the majority of a nine man lineup to perform at their optimum in four or five at-bats. The Blue Jays don't average 6 runs per game by scoring 6 162 times. Sometimes they get shutout. Sometimes they score twenty. Arrieta never allows twenty.

So you're argument hinges on the fact that there the ups and downs of a lineup are more volatile than one player?

Even if that is true. That doesnt mean that the averages established by the offenses go completely out the window like you want them to.

Run support exists. I dont know what else to tell you. It's pretty much a universally accepted truth. Even before the #KillTheWin revolution, no one was saying "every offense is essentially the same"

The only question is whether you believe this at all or if this is the longest of long cons you are running.


You've already made the concession on Felix. You set it at 2 runs per game but regardless that is you believing in run support


Last edited by rogers park bryan on Tue Dec 15, 2015 3:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 15, 2015 3:37 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
IMU wrote:
Pitchers can't go through bad stretches. Understood.


They can and they do. That's how other pitchers get "run support".

So, pitchers have bad runs and it skews their ERA like offenses do with runs scored?


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PostPosted: Tue Dec 15, 2015 4:39 pm 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
So you're argument hinges on the fact that there the ups and downs of a lineup are more volatile than one player?


Of course that's true. It's dependent on more parts. And the downs of the lineup are more likely to occur vs. a good pitcher. If you're on the short end every game, how good can you be? Why aren't you ever the guy who is causing the lower offense?

rogers park bryan wrote:
Even if that is true. That doesnt mean that the averages established by the offenses go completely out the window like you want them to.


That's a big part of the problem. SABRmetrics has caused people to fixate on averages when baseball is a situational game. There are pitchers with 3.00 ERAs who are good and pitchers with 3.00 ERAs that suck.

rogers park bryan wrote:
Run support exists. I dont know what else to tell you. It's pretty much a universally accepted truth. Even before the #KillTheWin revolution, no one was saying "every offense is essentially the same"


It doesn't exist. It's nothing more than some other guy's ERA. And you're not going to tell me some crap about "universally accepted truth" with regard to baseball, are you? For 100 years it was universally accepted truth that BA and RBI were the two most important stats for a hitter. So I guess Ben Zobrist is horseshit.


rogers park bryan wrote:
You've already made the concession on Felix. You set it at 2 runs per game but regardless that is you believing in run support


He was still better than .500 and I wouldn't have given him the Cy Young. But yeah, that wasn't a bad season considering just how brutal his offense was. It's probably not a great argument to use an extreme outlier as an example. Shelby ("17 Loss") Miller doesn't fit. He pitched half his games vs. teams with offenses similar to that of his own team.

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 15, 2015 8:04 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
It's nothing more than some other guy's ERA

No its not. Its the offenses production against a
bunch of other pitchers and it goes along way towards determining a pitchers W-L %

Which is why you see (but ignore for some reason) the numbers line up like they do. Higher run support = more wins in general.

Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
He was still better than .500 and I wouldn't have given him the Cy Young. But yeah, that wasn't a bad season considering just how brutal his offense was. It's probably not a great argument to use an extreme outlier as an example. Shelby ("17 Loss") Miller doesn't fit. He pitched half his games vs. teams with offenses similar to that of his own team.

Right. So run support exists, its just that you think the difference is too small to count.

But it does exist and can affect W-L like it did with Felix


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