Why? His ERA won't be as great but he can win 20 games with this offense.

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Be well

GO BEARS!!!

I have no idea why you addressed me in stating this fantastic rarely known tidbit.

I thought this was Hahn's 3rd off season?

KENNY

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

Comparing offseasons and added wins is ridiculous. The Cubs margin of increase is much smaller given they had 96 wins. The Sox have way more potential for improvement.

Lawrie is an upgrade...not special, but an upgrade. Frazier is a clear upgrade at critical position.

I still see upgrades needed at Catcher, DH, and the OF. They look improved but hard to get excited and consider them a playoff contender.

God, I hate Adam LaRoche.

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They got a slight upgrade at catcher.

OF and DH are issues tho, no doubt.

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"He is a loathsome, offensive brute
--yet I can't look away."

Agreed Catcher is a slight upgrade. My point is it wasn't nearly enough of an upgrade.

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Arietta was basically just as good in 2014.

2014 WAR per start: 0.20 (25 starts)
2015 WAR per start: 0.22 (33 starts)

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Fucking WAR per start I've seen it all.

How about WAR per IP... per AB ... or even per pitch?????

Where does it end......

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A quick glance shows you this:

2014: 5.0 WAR
2015: 7.3 WAR

But he had 8 fewer starts in 2014, so he was basically just as effective.

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WAR PER WAR

it doesn't end. we are doomed to an endless stream of new stats for all eternity.

Why does this scare you?

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Scare? Lol. Let's walk it back a little.

What you did was either invent something or read something on a blog (my bet is the latter) that shrunk the WAR statistic from a season-long stat to a per game stat to make the difference appear more minimal.

.22 is 10% higher than .20. That is substantial. You wouldn't just be able to wash away that difference if it was between, say, 220 and 200. Its no different than an optical illusion.

In 2015 Arrieta had an ERA .75 points lower than 2014. He pitched 75 more innings in 2015. He walked fewer batters in 2015. Strikeouts rates were about the same. He was better in 2015 than he was in 2014, I don't give a fuck what your bullshit WAR per start napkin math says.*

* even though it too says Arrieta was better in 15 than 14.

My greatest shame of the past year is whiskey dick.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

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O judgment! Thou art fled to brutish beasts,
And men have lost their reason.

I said he was basically just as effective. If you extrapolated the 2014 WAR numbers to the 2015 GS mark, he'd have finished at 6.6 (vs 7.3). I don't see that as particularly substantial, especially in this context (where people say he had a once in a lifetime season & is due for regression). His FIP numbers, K/9, HR/9, etc were all right around the same range. He allowed a BABIP nearly 30 points lower in 2015, which could help to explain the difference in ERA. But ERA is one of the last things you should be looking at, anyway.

Analyze his fangraphs page and you'll find that he's been pretty much the same pitcher since the beginning of 2014.

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They still need another legitimate run producer in the #4 or #5 slot in that lineup.

Most days, I view:
#1: A.Eaton
#2: M.Cabrera
#3: J.Abreu
#4: ______
#5 T.Frazier
#6:B.Lawrie
#7:A.La Roche / A.Garcia (DH)
#8: C
#9: SS

Right now, Frazier and Lawrie are either moved up or Cabrera down in the order, and La Roche / Garcia still probably have too much importance in this lineup. The bottom of this order still looks very week from #7 - #9 so they really need to be productive in the first part of the order.

Don't look at the runs he gave up! No! He's a pitcher, nobody cares if he gives up any runs. That's the last thing you should be looking at.

Agreed. They are still one big bat away from being a low level contender. La Roche's presence is really gumming up the works.

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O judgment! Thou art fled to brutish beasts,
And men have lost their reason.

You think Greinke had one as well? He regresses too?

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You got my nuanced manner of speak mixed up twice in this response.

Yes, raw ERA is one of the last things that you should be looking at because it's a bit too dependant on team defense. I didn't say that you should disregard it altogether.

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Instead we should rely on a made up statistics like WAR?

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

It's commonly regarded as the industry standard by REALLY SMART PEOPLE.

But if you don't care for it, then whatever. There's a whole shitload of useful statistics at your disposal. Knock yourself out.

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Really? They can't even agree on a single version of it. I'd say it's regarded as the industry standard of fans who want to act like they know more about baseball than somebody else.

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Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

By who? Those who sell magazines and subscriptions to baseball fans?

I'm going to take a wild guess and say that GM's aren't saying "This guy has a WAR of X, we must get him".

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

WAR is good. Use the fangraphs one.

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Reality is your friend, not your enemy. -- Seacrest

It's embraced by people who aren't living in the stone age. And of course it's imperfect - that goes without saying.

But again, there is a shitload of useful statistics at your disposal. There is no need to rely on an antiquated stat like raw ERA.

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It is not "imperfect". It is made up.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

So is the theory of evolution

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Reality is your friend, not your enemy. -- Seacrest