Um, no.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

Jeff Samardzija, who sucked last year, finished 39th amongst the 78 qualified starters in Fangraphs WAR for the 2015 season.

That stat alone makes WAR a bunch of horseshit.

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He will do well for the Giants next year and everyone will tout the "predictive capabilities of WAR" while ignoring the obvious.

The NL is basically AAAA compared to the AL. Jake Arrieta couldn't keep his ERA below 5 for the Orioles but he waltzes into the NL and !FREE STRIKEOUTS! and he's a Cy Young winner. It's that easy. If you're a bad major league player, particularly a pitcher, the NL is a godsend.

The White Sox win a minimum of 80 games last year in the NL. Impossible to say otherwise. The only AL teams that have been tanking (the Astros and perhaps the Twins... maybe the A's but who knows what Beane is doing) won some games this year.

Meanwhile the Brewers, Reds (97 wins already doesn't sound so impressive), Phillies, Marlins, Diamondbacks, Rockies and Braves had completely given up. Sabean noticed this years ago and decided to go for it every year. He got three rings because he had the common sense to see that if only 5 or 6 teams in his league are actively competing his odds of NL pennants (and thus World Series opportunities) goes up dramatically. The Diamondbacks came to this same realization and are trying to strike while the rebuilding fad makes the NL about as difficult as the International League.

Renny have been trying this same tactic for years now in the AL, but because everyone tries to win the AL and ~1/3 of the games aren't against team actively trying to lose it doesn't work.

Whoa ..slow down buddy, Jake had his " mechanics" modified and his arm angle all fucked up in Baltimore.. Bosio just had him go back to " normal". He's got great stuff, he didn't put it together in Baltimore like Konerko didn't put it together in Cincy or L.A.


I do agree the A.L. is a better league with the DH..its a tougher lineup. The Sox aren't a good team in either league, they are bad..from manager to talent most teams in MLB have an advantage. I see the Sox winning 79-80 games this year, they may as well be tanking..they are trying to compete n suck , that's more embarrassing than playing prospects and scrubs .


Samardiza will suck in any uniform. Sure he will give up less long balls in that massive park in SF and Petco and L.A. but guys square up on his pitches and barrel up on the guppy, always have n will. Less homers = more doubles n triples ..his ERA won't be below 4... He blows.

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Sox suck last year in NL also. Your argument is impossible to justify but dream on.

But that's basically in the scrub range - he's right there with the likes of Wade Miley, Colby Lewis, Yordano Ventura, Garrett Richards, Jason Hammel, etc. It makes me sick to read all of those names.

But I have to admit that I am perplexed as to how this occurred:

Felix Hernandez: 2.8 WAR (31 starts)
Jeff Samardzija: 2.7 WAR (32 starts)

Felix is generally in the 6 range, but his FIP numbers indicate that his defense bailed him out a bit, and he had some hard times with the gopher ball. Still though, I don't get why he'd be ranked amongst the scrubs.

WAR is generally on the money, but you'll find some head-scratchers from time to time.

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War was useless to me when it said Zobrist was better than Pujols in his prime.

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Be well

GO BEARS!!!

Easy. He's being objectionable for once.

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FYI ERA was also a made up stat at one point.

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It's catching on. I created a thing

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O judgment! Thou art fled to brutish beasts,
And men have lost their reason.

Like back in 1908.

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I don't mean "made up" like it didn't exist.

ERA is simply a formula based on the data that comes in. Assuming that errors are scored according to the rules, there is no human interaction at all. Every part of it is just math. I can't just go out and invent bERA right now because there is no variation. However, I could invent my own bWar with my own opinions on how the positions or types of players should be valued. I can then add in something that gives a high value to players who foul the ball off more. Then, as long as some others think I'm smart it suddenly becomes an answer.

Just like we saw in this thread, and many others. WAR is used as some sort of definitive statistic where someone throws it down and is like "Boom, Jake Arrieta was basically the same player because of WAR!".

That is why WAR is a made up statistic. There is no reason to believe it is right at all and there is no real way to prove that it is wrong. It's simply a way to sell magazines and subscriptions. I'd laugh at any GM who uses WAR as anything important in making actual decisions. If it was that important, there would be very few negative WAR players in MLB.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

You could just look at oWAR and it would have been fine.

This is the problem though. WAR gets cited all the time as some sort of answer when it fits their agenda. But then you have to ignore 50% of it when it just doesn't make sense at all.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

I think most of the time when there is a big defensive component to the BR WAR, people know it and understand it.


The Fangraphs one is a little better.

Kind of like when somebody tries to discount half of a players home runs because they were "just enough" to clear the fence? Maybe we should factor in close plays at the plate, and if a runner beats a tag or a throw, he should only get half a run/RBI because it was "just enough" of a run.

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Maybe it should cause you to stop blindly accepting WAR as some kind of truth. Unless, of course, you want to make the argument that these guys were similar pitchers last season.

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Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

That isn't how it is used though. It's normally cited just like someone's OPS or OPS+ which is simply a statistic.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

Well that's misuse (widespread as it may be). Not the stat's fault.

The stat is a very good one but like everything else there is context

It is the stats fault. You just said that you have to ignore 50% of it and then it makes sense.

How can you even trust it as anything useful?

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

I didnt say you have to ignore it. There are times when its obvious the defensive part is a little overvalued (particularly when a guy plays multiple positions like Zobrist or Lawrie) but for the most part it's fine.

Also the fangraphs version is fine. Dont have to ignore anything there.

He will have a losing record next year and everyone will ignore the predictive capabilities of his previous losing records and say he once again suffered from "a lack of run support".

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

But if he does have a winning record, you wont take that as a shot at W-L%, you'll say he just had a good year.

It goes both ways.

There is another thing. You have two version of the same "stat". If they can't even agree then why should anyone take it seriously?

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

I don't think he will have a winning record though. And if he does it will be a weak one, like 13-12. Because he's no fucking good.

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Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Jake vs the AL
2014 2-0 2.16 ERA
2015 4-1 2.95 ERA

WAR - WHAT IS IT GOOD FOR?

ABSOLUTELY NOTHING!!!!

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I dont either (although the Giants are starting to have their own version of Cardinal magic so who knows)