I kinda wished I watched this game after reading this thread.

They will replay it this week on the NFL Network.

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Given the context of the game the success rate was lower than 68%.

There was no run game to speak of and the only option was passing against a rabid pass rush.

Field goal was the only decision.

6.5 minutes left.

Denver unable to move the ball.

All of the momentum on NE's side

Three timeouts left.

Denver has 0 kick return yards all day.

Time DOES NOT run off the clock on a touch back.

Payton Manning's pain killers have worn off.

KICK THE FIELD GOAL AND TRUST YOUR PLAYERS.

And you can be damn sure that is how most of his players felt as well.

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There's nothing left to debate. You guys have intuition, Zeph and I have facts. Sorry.

_________________
Fare you well, fare you well
I love you more than words can tell
Listen to the river sing sweet songs
To rock my soul

and the one fact is the Pats didn't make it

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

Well, there are more facts than just that, but you are correct. That is a fact. Now go teach Seacrest and Archie what a fact is.

_________________
Fare you well, fare you well
I love you more than words can tell
Listen to the river sing sweet songs
To rock my soul

I posted a list of facts.

Stats are about probability, not facts.

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[ Someone post the truth.[/quote]
http://nyt4thdownbot.com/play/201601240071213[/quote]
Seems pretty clear cut. By the numbers, going for it was the right call.[/quote]

This is pretty clear cut.

Had he kicked the field goal, he would be game prepping for the Super Bowl.[/quote]
Do you deny that going for it on 4th was the higher percentage choice by the numbers?[/quote]
Doesn't any of this have to do with the play that was called?

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

Of course. The whole argument is which decision would result in a better PROBABILITY of winning. The FACT is going for 4th down results in a higher PROBABILITY of winning than kicking does. I really don't think I can dumb this down any more. If you guys still don't understand it, you never will. It's not rocket science, though.

_________________
Fare you well, fare you well
I love you more than words can tell
Listen to the river sing sweet songs
To rock my soul

The 1% (!!!!!) increased win probability is based on the bot's calculation of a 68% chance of a successful conversion of 4th and 1.

Using 68% is a BS input.

You're contradicting yourself here I think. You should check out the link I posted earlier on the butterfly effect. Just because the Pats scored later on in the game doesn't mean it's likely that they would have done so after kicking the FG and getting the ball back. Kicking the FG would have generated a completely different set of variables moving forward, and Denver would have made different decisions on offense if NE made that field goal that would have resulted in a completely different set of circumstances, and so on, etc. Not as clear cut as you're making it out to be.

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Successful calls:

Kyrie Irving will never win anything as a team's alpha: check
T.rubisky is a bust: check
Ben Simmons is a liability: check
The Fields Cult is dumb: double check

2013 CSFMB ROY

This is what my decision is based upon.


There are more to these decisions than just math.

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The Pats were 2-15 on 3rd down doesn't that indicate anything?

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

Not according to the NYT 4th bot lemmings.

They're treating all 3rd downs as independent events with equal chance of succeeding. Clearly Denver's defensive performance indicated New England would not have a 68% chance of success.

But a cartoon robot said so! It must be true!

I love the logic that New England was facing a rabid defense and couldnt move the ball so they should..... kick a FG and try to drive down the entire field another time!

_________________
Fare you well, fare you well
I love you more than words can tell
Listen to the river sing sweet songs
To rock my soul

They would have to drive the field no matter what.

Might as well attempt the drive with 4 downs in their pocket and for the win.

Very simple.

That's not the logic ...when you have an opportunity to get points you put the points on the board. Where is the stat if you convert that 1st down you get a touchdown?????

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

I actually agree with Kirkwood on something...I guess there's a first for everything.

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Nope. We are talking about the 4th down decisions. In each case, they had already accomplished that, and it was fair to assume that was their last chance.

_________________
Fare you well, fare you well
I love you more than words can tell
Listen to the river sing sweet songs
To rock my soul

6.5 minutes left in the game.

Very foolish assumption

Didn't the Bengals kick the field goal then score the TD that essentially won the game if it weren't for the shenanigans that followed against the Steeler ? With about the same time left?

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Proud member of the white guy grievance committee

It aint the six minutes. Its what happens in those six minutes.

You're the same guy that thought the Pats couldn't get a yard when they really needed to. Can't have it both ways, amigo.

_________________
Fare you well, fare you well
I love you more than words can tell
Listen to the river sing sweet songs
To rock my soul

Totally different situation.

Whole world knew Pats couldn't run on the 4th and 1. The play would be a pass. There was no element of surprise. Denver would be able to match up perfectly to combat a short pass.

At least with 4 downs there's a ton of flexibility.

Now your just making shit up.

_________________

Shhhhhhhhhhhhh

_________________

Nope. Also, you're*

_________________
Fare you well, fare you well
I love you more than words can tell
Listen to the river sing sweet songs
To rock my soul

There is a huge assumption if they kick the field goal it lessens their chances to win which is wrong!

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

FF is clearly wrong.

_________________
Be well

GO BEARS!!!

You'll have to be more specific.

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