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PostPosted: Wed Feb 10, 2016 8:56 am 
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whiskey dick wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
whiskey dick wrote:
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I'm talking specifically about FIP. It's about more than errors/defense.


I'd recommend going to fangraphs and looking up the definition of FIP. It basically takes defense out of the equation.

Sale had several rough starts (not just against Minnesota), but he more than made up for it in his other outings. He was a top 5 pitcher in all of baseball last year, and you'd never know if if you were looking at stats that are found on the back of a baseball card.


You're just another shit talker that doesn't know what the fuck he's talking about. Sort of like dan bernstein. I know exactly what FIP is and what it purports to do. It starts with the silly premise that all batted balls (save for homeruns) are equal. (I'm sure someone has a more advanced model that separates the batted balls into "hard shots", "line drives", etc. based upon subjective observation.) FIP is attempting to measure a pitcher based upon his walks, strikeouts, and homeruns and it assumes that the ball Lorenzo Cain slammed into the gap was "unlucky".


FIP assumes average luck on balls in play. The theory is that pitchers have very little control over balls that are put in play (ie very little control over BABIP allowed). You disagree? Whatever. Keep relying on ERA and W/L records, which are basically team statistics (particularly the latter). You'll be wrong half the time.


You don't seem to understand FIP, let alone the way baseball is actually played.

First, the word "control" in this context is just wrong. It's better to use the word "effect". The pitcher and the batter each have an effect on what happens to the baseball. If you actually believe that a pitch that a batter hits off the handle while breaking his bat and takes a wild bounce on the infield allowing the batter to safely reach first is the same as a guy dialing a pitcher in and blasting a liner off the top of the left field wall, I'm not sure what to tell you. but I don't think even you really believe such a thing. FIP treats both incidents as being exactly the same.

Maybe you should read one of the Fangraphs pieces on Mark Buehrle. Do you believe he was just some charmed guy with a lot of luck?

I'll ask you this, who is the guy with the great ERA that fooled you by actually being terrible and you figured out how wrong you were by looking at FIP?

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 10, 2016 8:57 am 
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IMU wrote:
Baseball gives us so many stats...let's not rely on any one or two. I like FIP...but you need some other stuff also. Because throwing a bp fastball to Rizzo means it is over the fence...while throwing it to Billy Hamilton is a triple. Both are bad results..but FIP really only factors in the one result. Teams that don't bash...FIP will always look better against them. Gotta look at WHIP...OPS against...etc etc


Nobody ever claimed that FIP is perfect, but it's infinitely better than ERA if we're gauging a pitcher's performance.

And definitely take all of the peripheral statistics into account.

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 10, 2016 9:00 am 
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whiskey dick wrote:
IMU wrote:
Baseball gives us so many stats...let's not rely on any one or two. I like FIP...but you need some other stuff also. Because throwing a bp fastball to Rizzo means it is over the fence...while throwing it to Billy Hamilton is a triple. Both are bad results..but FIP really only factors in the one result. Teams that don't bash...FIP will always look better against them. Gotta look at WHIP...OPS against...etc etc


Nobody ever claimed that FIP is perfect, but it's infinitely better than ERA if we're gauging a pitcher's performance.

And definitely take all of the peripheral statistics into account.


Again, who is the guy who I can discover is good by looking at FIP that I can't tell the same thing by looking at his ERA?

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 10, 2016 9:13 am 
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What I said could have been copied and pasted from the FIP page on fangraphs. Over the long run, a pitcher has very little control over balls that are put in play. You're missing the fucking forest here. Chris Sale allowed close to a .330 BABIP last season. The White Sox had the worst defense in baseball. Put two and two together.

It's certainly possible for a pitcher to have a better ERA than his FIP would indicate. No shit.

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 10, 2016 9:32 am 
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whiskey dick wrote:
What I said could have been copied and pasted from the FIP page on fangraphs. Over the long run, a pitcher has very little control over balls that are put in play. You're missing the fucking forest here. Chris Sale allowed close to a .330 BABIP last season. The White Sox had the worst defense in baseball. Put two and two together.

It's certainly possible for a pitcher to have a better ERA than his FIP would indicate. No shit.


I'm not talking about Chris Sale. I'm talking about FIP. Are you interested in the right answer or do you just want to beat people over the head with some stuff you read on the Internet? We can all see the numbers. Yes, over enough time all batted balls will result in a batting average around .300. We aren't disagreeing about that fact. We're apparently disagreeing about what that fact means. You seem to be suggesting that pitchers have no effect (again, I wouldn't use the word control) on where a batted ball goes. That idea is absolutely preposterous.

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 10, 2016 9:34 am 
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Are you guys going to do this all fucking season again? :roll: :lol:

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 10, 2016 9:36 am 
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whiskey dick wrote:
312player wrote:
Top 5 last year? No chance man


1. Clayton Kershaw 8.6 WAR
2. Jake Arrieta 7.3 WAR
3. Max Scherzer 6.4 WAR
4. David Price 6.4 WAR
5. Chris Sale 6.2 WAR

That is your top 5 for 2015.




I don't use WAR its very flawed..I use common sense and just going off memory I'm certain Keuchel and Greinke belong on the top 5 list for last year.

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 10, 2016 9:52 am 
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Baseball analysis does not get any more sound than when somebody says, "Ah, I'm just going off of my memory."

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 10, 2016 9:54 am 
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Frank Coztansa wrote:
Baseball analysis does not get any more sound than when somebody says, "Ah, I'm just going off of my memory."


His memory is probably right though. And if I'm shopping for WAR I can find one that says Greinke was better than Kershaw.

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 10, 2016 9:56 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
whiskey dick wrote:
What I said could have been copied and pasted from the FIP page on fangraphs. Over the long run, a pitcher has very little control over balls that are put in play. You're missing the fucking forest here. Chris Sale allowed close to a .330 BABIP last season. The White Sox had the worst defense in baseball. Put two and two together.

It's certainly possible for a pitcher to have a better ERA than his FIP would indicate. No shit.


I'm not talking about Chris Sale. I'm talking about FIP. Are you interested in the right answer or do you just want to beat people over the head with some stuff you read on the Internet? We can all see the numbers. Yes, over enough time all batted balls will result in a batting average around .300. We aren't disagreeing about that fact. We're apparently disagreeing about what that fact means. You seem to be suggesting that pitchers have no effect (again, I wouldn't use the word control) on where a batted ball goes. That idea is absolutely preposterous.


Chris Sale's FIP is the whole reason we're having this conversation to begin with, you dupa yash.

I never said that a pitcher has zero control over where a batted ball goes on the field. I said that he has very little control over what happens to a ball that's put in play. News flash - team defense is fucking crucial. If the guys behind you are incompetent, then your ERA could take a serious hit.

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 10, 2016 10:02 am 
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Voros McCracken is a very smart guy. And more than that, an interesting guy. But like so many modern analysts, he's obsessed with correlation. He sees Maddux's BABIP fluctuate wildly from year to year and immediately concludes that it's all luck. I'm not saying that luck doesn't play a part. Many old time guys are loathe to admit just how much randomness factors into the results. But couldn't it be that Maddux just wasn't as sharp in a particular year and that is illustrated by a higher BABIP in said year?

Delivering the baseball is a highly complex motion with many components/moving parts. The slightest deviation may cause that pitch to be delivered just millimeters away from its intended location.

Somehow, I think Mark Buehrle could be the Rosetta Stone for discovering the real answers when it comes to pitchers "controlling" where a batted ball goes. But perhaps you believe all those double plays were accidental or due to the great defense of Jose Valentin.

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 10, 2016 10:04 am 
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whiskey dick wrote:
I never said that a pitcher has zero control over where a batted ball goes on the field. I said that he has very little control over what happens to a ball that's put in play.


And this is why I say you don't understand FIP. Such a belief is the core basis of the statistic.

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 10, 2016 10:07 am 
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Frank Coztansa wrote:
Baseball analysis does not get any more sound than when somebody says, "Ah, I'm just going off of my memory."



Hey numbnuts, reread my post, I said I use common sense. I don't believe a one size fits all number can be accurate. Whiskey Dick had Samardiza > King Felix in WAR the last time he was posting WAR rankings. Going off memory means I don't even need to look up any numbers..Keuchel and Greinke absolutely had better seasons last year than Sale did.

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 10, 2016 10:30 am 
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Frank Coztansa wrote:
Baseball analysis does not get any more sound than when somebody says, "Ah, I'm just going off of my memory."

No doubt.
Frank Coztansa wrote:
And that is with going 4-10 with a 5+ ERA last year.

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 10, 2016 10:45 am 
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Frank Coztansa wrote:
Baseball analysis does not get any more sound than when somebody says, "Ah, I'm just going off of my memory."

It could be a lot worse.
Frank Coztansa wrote:
I think...


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 10, 2016 11:50 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
whiskey dick wrote:
I never said that a pitcher has zero control over where a batted ball goes on the field. I said that he has very little control over what happens to a ball that's put in play.


And this is why I say you don't understand FIP. Such a belief is the core basis of the statistic.


Jesus Christ. What I said is from the actual definition of FIP. Damn near verbatim.

You're killing me, man.

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 10, 2016 11:51 am 
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JORR laying a hurting on whiskey dick.

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 10, 2016 12:01 pm 
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whiskey dick gets tossed around the Cubs/Sox forums like a rag doll. Just happened to be JORR's turn this time.


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 10, 2016 12:04 pm 
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I am sorry IMU cannot recognize a typo.

I am not sorry that Kirkwood does not posses the ability to think.

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 10, 2016 12:10 pm 
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Rick, aren't you the guy who took exception to Julie DiCaro being labeled a blimp? You're such a pansy.

And isn't America a straight up fucking crackpot? And an über burrito, if you will?

Yeah, okay. Come at me.

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 10, 2016 12:18 pm 
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whiskey dick wrote:
Rick, aren't you the guy who took exception to Julie DiCaro being labeled a blimp? You're such a pansy.

And isn't America a straight up fucking crackpot? And an über GAY, if you will?

Yeah, okay. Come at me.

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 10, 2016 12:19 pm 
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whiskey dick is a fangraphs page that somehow gained sentience and started posting on message boards.


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 10, 2016 12:21 pm 
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coop, lawrie, latos and eaton all in the same clubhouse over 162 is gonna be awesome.


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 10, 2016 12:22 pm 
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Arlington Hts Archie wrote:
coop, lawrie, latos and eaton all in the same clubhouse over 162 is gonna be awesome.

if latos pitches more than 90 innings before his arm falls off/he gets DFA'd I'll be pleasantly surprised.


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 10, 2016 12:28 pm 
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Arlington Hts Archie wrote:
coop, lawrie, latos and eaton all in the same clubhouse over 162 is gonna be awesome.

Hell yea

Dont sleep on Sale who fits right in with that crew.

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 10, 2016 12:29 pm 
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Its why they needed a bench coach that speaks spanish.?

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 10, 2016 12:32 pm 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
Arlington Hts Archie wrote:
coop, lawrie, latos and eaton all in the same clubhouse over 162 is gonna be awesome.

Hell yea

Dont sleep on Sale who fits right in with that crew.

Image

LaRoche is the most backwoods hick of them all.

I could see Lawrie, Latos, Eaton even Sale settling on being your average "livin' by Midway til the Mexicans showed up so we fled to Oak Lawn" south side white trash. Not LaRoche, LaRoche is swamp.


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 10, 2016 12:46 pm 
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whiskey dick wrote:
Rick, aren't you the guy who took exception to Julie DiCaro being labeled a blimp? You're such a pansy.
I took exception to those who were using DiCaro to get out some sort of deep seeded aggression against women instead of concentrating on the real reasons why she is bad.

And, in case you missed it, pretty much everyone agrees that I saved that thread.

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PostPosted: Wed Feb 10, 2016 12:55 pm 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
Arlington Hts Archie wrote:
coop, lawrie, latos and eaton all in the same clubhouse over 162 is gonna be awesome.

Hell yea

Dont sleep on Sale who fits right in with that crew.

please have the stars align for the white sox to be like 6.5 back of WC and giants suck. hahn then acquires peavy for the stretch run.


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 10, 2016 1:05 pm 
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