The problem with whiskey dick when it comes to this topic is that he doesn't know as much about it as he thinks he does, let alone as much about it as I do.

FIP simply measures results of at-bats that cannot be affected by fielders. Those things would be walks, strikeouts, and homeruns. But what of the results of the at-bats that fall into the other category, i.e. things upon which fielders may have an effect?

Of course, Jason Heyward may be able to save Michael Wacha some runs by tracking down the same ball that Avisail Garcia couldn't get to had it come off the bat of Chris Sale in a different game. But that doesn't really say anything about the difference between Michael Wacha and Chris Sale. They both gave up the same terrific hard line drive which is evidence of bad pitching in that particular at-bat. There are batted balls that can be affected by fielders theoretically, but not practically.

So now we come back to Mark Buehrle. And the facts. Like the fact that over enough time all batted balls are going to work out to an average of just about .300. And the fact that Buehrle was not a guy who struck out a lot of batters. Which necessarily means that his FIP is likely to be worse than a guy who struck out a lot. I'm certain no one believes Javy Vazquez was a better pitcher than Mark Buerhle, but he was certainly better if we believe that walks, strikeouts, and homeruns are the only things over which pitchers have control.

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Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Were you trying to be funny? It looks like Beardown has some competition.

What was that you said before, that I get tossed around like a rag doll? Son, you are gayer than Frankie Valli hitting the high notes. You see what I did there?

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And I know that you will enlighten me as to what I am not comprehending at some point.

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Is that a bad thing? Let's face it, in most instances when we are discussing numbers, the overwhelming majority of us are regurgitators rather than true analysts.

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O judgment! Thou art fled to brutish beasts,
And men have lost their reason.

Way too much is given to strikeouts for pitchers, an out is an out..in fact I'd prefer you throw 27 pitches a game that result in grounders to the second baseman and save your arm the wear n tear. I will never get on board with WAR, its dumb and not feasible.. I don't care if some nerd crunched all the numbers for a week..if the final result has Samardiza better than Felix Hernandez..your system is very flawed and pretty useless.

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If this happened, Cubs fans would still argue that Kerry Wood's 20K game was better.

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Well, that's not exactly true. The more strikeouts, the less balls in play and we know that over enough time balls in play result in the batter reaching base about a third of the time. A pitcher who is capable of high strikeout rates begins the game with an advantage over a guy who isn't. The fact it, it's much tougher for the pitcher who lacks the big finishing pitch to get the batter to ground out exactly where he wants him to. Buehrle is an oddity. But the things he did and they time span over which he did them suggest that he wasn't simply a beneficiary of "good luck".

But one problem I have with some of the modern analysis is that it becomes so focused on a particular facet, it becomes ignorant regading the larger context of the actual game. For example, we can see that strikeout rates are higher now than they ever have been. That being the case, defense is necessarily less critical, as a fielder simply has less chances than ever. But then you see WAR ridiculously overvaluing the defense of guys like Heyward and Kiermaier who see a minimal amount of chances in the modern high strikeout game.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Inventors of a particular stat should have to put warning labels on their work so they are not misused by the less mathematically able.

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O judgment! Thou art fled to brutish beasts,
And men have lost their reason.

1\ 3 of the time? The worst defenders in baseball still have a fielding % of 97%.

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1/3 of the time what? Your second sentence isn't actually true, but there's much more to defense than fielding percentage.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

the math makes sense if you figure it. dude makes 10 outs into doubles and triples? that's 5 runs right there. problem is how you determine what should and should not have been caught. not so easy with different parks, pitchers, defensive alignments, etc.

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Reality is your friend, not your enemy. -- Seacrest

I feel like this fact is overstated or misused. It is usually presented as if most players are gonna be real close to .300 and if they arent, it's a huge anomaly. There are guys who are consistently well above .300 because of how hard they hit the ball.


FIP, like every stat, is fine with context.

A pitcher's BABIP against will normalize to .300 over the course of time...as he faces all types of hitters.

A single batter, however, can have a normal BABIP of .320 or .270 or whatever. BABIP isn't used to judge pitchers but to project how they will do going forward...same with batters. No one is good or bad based on their BABIP.

And, as always, use responsibly.

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Rick Hahn is the best GM in baseball.

It's a pitching stat, not a hitting stat.

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Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Tell Dan Bernstein who frequently uses it for batters.

"Ooooh, his Bapip is .319, that's going to come down"

I'm not speaking of random balls in play, I'm speaking of weak routine ground balls to the second baseman. I understand the K eliminates the defense but It shouldnt carry as much weight as it does.. Jeff Samardiza and JJ Burnett will have scewed WAR values that indicate both are better than they are in reality.

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Those are factored in.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

Sox are circling Ian Desmond, not a big fan of that move.

me either ...what do you think of Yulieski Gourriel ? His numbers this year ib Cuba look like Ninetendo numbers 160 PA 62 H 14D 11HR 29 RBI 1K 25BB (246 career bombs). He is 31 and his brother may be even better Lourdes (22) may be even better.

I would think Jose Abreu could help recruit one or both of them.

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Desmond would be a terrific signing, actually. His plate discipline might be below average, but he'll still flirt with 25 home runs, steal you 20 to 25 bases (and perform well in general on the basepaths), and most importantly, play solid defense at a crucial position.

He had a miserable year in 2015, but he still has plenty of value. The team that lands him will be some smart motherfuckers.

I know people don't want to see this, but here goes:

2012: 4.8 WAR
2013: 4.7 WAR
2014: 4.0 WAR
2015: 1.7 WAR

I find it hard to believe that he's still available.

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No pick attached and I'd be in. Of course without the pick attached he'd have signed a long time ago for decent money.

The Sox are almost definitely going to graduate Anderson and Fulmer this year. They traded away Montas, Johnson and Trayce. The mid-table of their system is extremely weak. As of now they have 3 picks in the top 47, and the Sox need all of them to prevent the farm from going nuclear.

Desmond's numbers trending down 4 years straight and a step up to the A.L. .. Don't seem wise.

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Desmond is one of only a dozen position players who put up at least 4 WAR in each season from 2012 to 2014, so while there was a decline from year to year, anything above a 4 WAR is still pretty damn good.

The word is that he's a mental midget who crumbled under the pressure of being on a World Series contender last season. I see no reason why he can't perform up to his 2012-2014 standards if he's only playing in front of like 8,000 fans. Hey, that's how I like it. I could move down and get a 5th row seat behind home plate in the 6th inning.

The Tim Anderson thing - Kenny has been here for 15 years, and the Sox have yet to draft a decent hitter outside of maybe Marcus Semien? Kenny doesn't know shit. You know that he defers almost entirely to his scouts when it comes to pitching, but he has final say on position players. If you're asking for proof, my response would be that they've drafted a ton of players who profiled much like Kenny himself - great athletes that are bad at baseball. Let me repeat that Kenny does not know shit. I expect nothing from Tim Anderson, or anyone else.

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Frazier cost
Montas #3 prospect from BA Prospect Handbook 2016
Thompson #5
Johnson #8

Lawrie cost
Zach Erwin #18
J. B. Wendelken #23

Last Year they had pick 8 Fullmer but lost the second round pick for Melky and the third round pick for LaRoche.

I understand both the go for it now philosophy and the signings and trades over the last two years.

I also understand the building through the draft method.

I do find it confusing the way the Sox after the Lawrie and Frazier acquisitions along with last years signings are now saying OH NO to Fowler, Desmond and any other players of that ilk since they now value the draft picks. They still have the 10th pick since it is protected just like last year.

Seems like they are trying to be "be just a little bit pregnant*" and we all know where that gets you.

*defined http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.p ... t+pregnant

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Montas out 4 months w rib injury.

there by giving the Dodgers an extra year of control..... just sayin'

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It also means the guy has yet to complete a season without getting hurt.

Desmond - you want to get better on D and then you see this:

Errors as SS:

2010 NL 34 (1st)
2011 NL 23 (2nd)
2013 NL 20 (2nd)
2014 NL 24 (1st)
2015 NL 27 (1st)

Yeah, who wants this stiff?

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

If his defense was average, I'd say yes given his hitting stats. But damn, that defense is killer. People would get annoyed at Alexei but here were his comparables:

2009 AL 20 (3rd)
2010 AL 20 (3rd)
2011 AL 16 (3rd)
2013 AL 22 (1st)
2015 AL 16 (4th)