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 Post subject: CUBS WORLD SERIES
PostPosted: Thu Mar 10, 2016 12:20 pm 
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PredictionMachine.com has already played the entire 2016 MLB Regular season and playoffs 50,000 times using its simulation technology - that's more than 120 million games played!

The Chicago Cubs win the World Series (for the first time in 108 years) a league-high 15.2% of the time, almost 50% more than the closest contender. The New York Mets (10.5%), Houston Astros (9.2%), Los Angeles Dodgers (8.2%) and Washington Nationals (6.5%) round out the five most likely champions.

The parity in the MLB is astounding this year as every team in the American League has at least a 0.2% chance of winning the World Series, while only four teams in the National League win it all fewer than 100 times in 50,000 simulations.

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 Post subject: Re: CUBS WORLD SERIES
PostPosted: Thu Mar 10, 2016 12:23 pm 
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You would mock the hell out of Frank for a post like that. :lol:

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 Post subject: Re: CUBS WORLD SERIES
PostPosted: Thu Mar 10, 2016 12:25 pm 
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Regular Reader wrote:
You would mock the hell out of Frank for a post like that. :lol:


Frank would not be capable of understanding a post like that...yet alone copied and pasted.

Arguing with the post is like Sox fans arguing with Pecota predictions. It is a number from a computer.

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 Post subject: Re: CUBS WORLD SERIES
PostPosted: Thu Mar 10, 2016 12:30 pm 
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So the computer has them at about 11/2 and Vegas is offering underlay odds of 4/1.

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 Post subject: Re: CUBS WORLD SERIES
PostPosted: Thu Mar 10, 2016 12:34 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
So the computer has them at about 11/2 and Vegas is offering underlay odds of 4/1.


vegas had the them at 10-1 to open, the public bet them down to 4-1

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 Post subject: Re: CUBS WORLD SERIES
PostPosted: Thu Mar 10, 2016 12:42 pm 
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bigfan wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
So the computer has them at about 11/2 and Vegas is offering underlay odds of 4/1.


vegas had the them at 10-1 to open, the public bet them down to 4-1



Are you saying Cub fans are stupid? :lol:

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 Post subject: Re: CUBS WORLD SERIES
PostPosted: Thu Mar 10, 2016 12:48 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
bigfan wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
So the computer has them at about 11/2 and Vegas is offering underlay odds of 4/1.


vegas had the them at 10-1 to open, the public bet them down to 4-1



Are you saying Cub fans are stupid? :lol:


I will compare a Cubs wager of winning the world series in vegas to dropping a coin in a fountain. Its like a wish (Have fun with that JORR)

It is the ultimate in "see I knew this was the year" evidence that you were in on it! and being part of it.

The Prediction Machine lends a little more credit to the betting # going down, but its baseball...and shit happens, so while I love the chances...the odss are now reflective of the action rather than the true talent on the field.

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 Post subject: Re: CUBS WORLD SERIES
PostPosted: Thu Mar 10, 2016 1:40 pm 
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bigfan wrote:

The Chicago Cubs win the World Series (for the first time in 108 years) a league-high 15.2% of the time, almost 50% more than the closest contender. The New York Mets (10.5%), Houston Astros (9.2%), Los Angeles Dodgers (8.2%) and Washington Nationals (6.5%) round out the five most likely champions.



At first glance, it sounds great (league-high 15%!), but then one realizes that it means the "field" is at 85%.

The good news is that if the Cubs can maintain that 15% each year for the next five years, the odds of them winning the WS at least once would be about 55%.

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 Post subject: Re: CUBS WORLD SERIES
PostPosted: Thu Mar 10, 2016 1:54 pm 
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Jaw Breaker wrote:
bigfan wrote:

The Chicago Cubs win the World Series (for the first time in 108 years) a league-high 15.2% of the time, almost 50% more than the closest contender. The New York Mets (10.5%), Houston Astros (9.2%), Los Angeles Dodgers (8.2%) and Washington Nationals (6.5%) round out the five most likely champions.



At first glance, it sounds great (league-high 15%!), but then one realizes that it means the "field" is at 85%.

The good news is that if the Cubs can maintain that 15% each year for the next five years, the odds of them winning the WS at least once would be about 55%.


Throw it all out once you get to playoff baseball. Guessing Dbacks had a bad % at one time and that % goes way up if Johnson and Schilling are set to pitch 3 games each in a 7 games series.

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