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 Post subject: The end of work?
PostPosted: Tue Apr 26, 2016 9:04 am 
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http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/goo ... 5ebde3376e

When robots take over for drivers it is going to create some type of revolution.

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 Post subject: Re: The end of work?
PostPosted: Tue Apr 26, 2016 9:33 am 
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Nah the media-propaganda machine will just continue to vilify the poor, and as long as not everyone is poor most Americans will buy it. We'll need to expand the size of our ghettos though no doubt.


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 Post subject: Re: The end of work?
PostPosted: Tue Apr 26, 2016 9:39 am 
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Ive been saying this for years!
Nobody will own a car. Theyll all be taxis. Come when you text them
When it breaks down just leave it on the side of the road and hail another taxi. Need something delievered fast? Just call a car and put your package in it and send it off. Its going to be glorious!

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 Post subject: Re: The end of work?
PostPosted: Tue Apr 26, 2016 9:40 am 
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There will be tons of jobs in maintenance. Too bad most people are idiots or lazy.

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 Post subject: Re: The end of work?
PostPosted: Tue Apr 26, 2016 9:41 am 
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Hackers are going to love this.

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 Post subject: Re: The end of work?
PostPosted: Tue Apr 26, 2016 9:42 am 
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IkeSouth wrote:
Ive been saying this for years!
Nobody will own a car. Theyll all be taxis. Come when you text them
When it breaks down just leave it on the side of the road and hail another taxi. Need something delievered fast? Just call a car and put your package in it and send it off. Its going to be glorious!

we can probably keep up this level of energy consumption for about 20 years.


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 Post subject: Re: The end of work?
PostPosted: Tue Apr 26, 2016 9:46 am 
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Here's the thing. Its very likely that 25-75% of the people that are going to be writing the code to program those cars are very cheap, very male, very foreign developers, either from India or Eastern European countries. This whole driverless car thing will be great, until one of these very cheap, very male, very foreign developers decides to put out a new code release or patch to these cars, which just happens to cause the accelerator to go full blast and simultaneously kill hundreds of people. Don't think its going to happen? It is. Just wait for it. There will be this huge uproar and a LOT of money is going to be spent fixing the problem. Now, its very possible that this doesn't kill the concept, but I think this will happen repeatedly and people will really quickly lose any trust in them. Just my two cents.

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 Post subject: Re: The end of work?
PostPosted: Tue Apr 26, 2016 9:49 am 
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Crystal Lake Hoffy wrote:
Here's the thing. Its very likely that 25-75% of the people that are going to be writing the code to program those cars are very cheap, very male, very foreign developers, either from India or Eastern European countries. This whole driverless car thing will be great, until one of these very cheap, very male, very foreign developers decides to put out a new code release or patch to these cars, which just happens to cause the accelerator to go full blast and simultaneously kill hundreds of people. Don't think its going to happen? It is. Just wait for it. There will be this huge uproar and a LOT of money is going to be spent fixing the problem. Now, its very possible that this doesn't kill the concept, but I think this will happen repeatedly and people will really quickly lose any trust in them. Just my two cents.


Thousands of people work on the same code for autonomys cars. No single person could do something like that and pass it through the verification process

Do your homework

People kill people every day in cars. Computers will kill far far less. In the 70s nobody thought we could ever trust computers with our money but look at it now.

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 Post subject: Re: The end of work?
PostPosted: Tue Apr 26, 2016 9:50 am 
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I think Americans love for cars and driving is going to be a little obstacle.

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 Post subject: Re: The end of work?
PostPosted: Tue Apr 26, 2016 9:59 am 
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IkeSouth wrote:
Ive been saying this for years!
Nobody will own a car. Theyll all be taxis. Come when you text them
When it breaks down just leave it on the side of the road and hail another taxi. Need something delievered fast? Just call a car and put your package in it and send it off. Its going to be glorious!


send the car over to a restaurant for take out and tell them to throw it in the car. Of course, the person delivering the drive through will be a robot as well.

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 Post subject: Re: The end of work?
PostPosted: Tue Apr 26, 2016 10:04 am 
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pittmike wrote:
I think Americans love for cars and driving is going to be a little obstacle.


This.

I enjoy driving. I still drive a manual transmission.

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 Post subject: Re: The end of work?
PostPosted: Tue Apr 26, 2016 10:10 am 
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IkeSouth wrote:
Crystal Lake Hoffy wrote:
Here's the thing. Its very likely that 25-75% of the people that are going to be writing the code to program those cars are very cheap, very male, very foreign developers, either from India or Eastern European countries. This whole driverless car thing will be great, until one of these very cheap, very male, very foreign developers decides to put out a new code release or patch to these cars, which just happens to cause the accelerator to go full blast and simultaneously kill hundreds of people. Don't think its going to happen? It is. Just wait for it. There will be this huge uproar and a LOT of money is going to be spent fixing the problem. Now, its very possible that this doesn't kill the concept, but I think this will happen repeatedly and people will really quickly lose any trust in them. Just my two cents.


Thousands of people work on the same code for autonomys cars. No single person could do something like that and pass it through the verification process

Do your homework

People kill people every day in cars. Computers will kill far far less. In the 70s nobody thought we could ever trust computers with our money but look at it now.


The first obstacle is going to be insurance. However, insurers will quickly learn automation decreases accidents. I think they will begin insisting that a human driver be present. They will ultimately insist that a human driver not touch the wheel or accelerator.

I've heard estimates of 10 years until everything is vetted and driverless is a go. Costs will be high to begin then come down within a decade. I suspect one generation after that there will be no drivers, except for people on joy rides.

Imagine the unintended savings. No vehicle insurance for a driver because any accident will be caused by the manufacturer (manufacturer insurance will skyrocket), no traffic police, no traffic maintenance personnel...every vehicular motion you make will be catalogued but, of course, not monitored by the government.

Old people, women and Asians will be safe on the road again. Old people will be further distanced from the young as now they will not even have a person that needs to drive them to appointments.

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 Post subject: Re: The end of work?
PostPosted: Tue Apr 26, 2016 11:48 am 
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good dolphin wrote:
there will be no drivers, except for people on joy rides.



I wonder whether an automated system will even allow for joyrides, or if human drivers would have to be banned to make the whole thing work. An analogy might be flying (where passengers do not control the plane) but are still allowed to fly private planes for pleasure, assuming they meet certain qualifications.

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 Post subject: Re: The end of work?
PostPosted: Tue Apr 26, 2016 11:48 am 
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There is way too much money to be made on this for the tech companies to not get it right. And one truck drivers go there goes their insurance agents, the truck stops serving them and all over the other jobs that they support. That's going to massively disrupt society.

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 Post subject: Re: The end of work?
PostPosted: Tue Apr 26, 2016 1:19 pm 
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WaitingforRuffcorn wrote:
There is way too much money to be made on this for the tech companies to not get it right. And one truck drivers go there goes their insurance agents, the truck stops serving them and all over the other jobs that they support. That's going to massively disrupt society.


won't someone think of the truck stop hookers and all who they service


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 Post subject: Re: The end of work?
PostPosted: Tue Apr 26, 2016 1:28 pm 
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Crystal Lake Hoffy wrote:
Here's the thing. Its very likely that 25-75% of the people that are going to be writing the code to program those cars are very cheap, very male, very foreign developers, either from India or Eastern European countries. This whole driverless car thing will be great, until one of these very cheap, very male, very foreign developers decides to put out a new code release or patch to these cars, which just happens to cause the accelerator to go full blast and simultaneously kill hundreds of people. Don't think its going to happen? It is. Just wait for it. There will be this huge uproar and a LOT of money is going to be spent fixing the problem. Now, its very possible that this doesn't kill the concept, but I think this will happen repeatedly and people will really quickly lose any trust in them. Just my two cents.

Bitter American tech professional? Never seen that before.

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 Post subject: Re: The end of work?
PostPosted: Tue Apr 26, 2016 1:30 pm 
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pittmike wrote:
I think Americans love for cars and driving is going to be a little obstacle.




That's what they said 120 years ago about horses and carriages when the combustible engine was invented.

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 Post subject: Re: The end of work?
PostPosted: Tue Apr 26, 2016 1:32 pm 
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With all the money state,county and city police department make on moving violations I have trouble seeing this becoming widespread in America. Unless they find another way to make the money up.

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 Post subject: Re: The end of work?
PostPosted: Tue Apr 26, 2016 1:33 pm 
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312player wrote:
pittmike wrote:
I think Americans love for cars and driving is going to be a little obstacle.




That's what they said 120 years ago about horses and carriages when the combustible engine was invented.


But when the car came along you were still in control of your horse so to speak.

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 Post subject: Re: The end of work?
PostPosted: Tue Apr 26, 2016 1:34 pm 
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conns7901 wrote:
With all the money state,county and city police department make on moving violations I have trouble seeing this becoming widespread in America. Unless they find another way to make the money up.


I imagine the DUI would go the way of the dodo bird.

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 Post subject: Re: The end of work?
PostPosted: Tue Apr 26, 2016 1:35 pm 
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I hate when someone says they enjoy driving. If you like driving on public roads with all the rules then you dont like driving you like being a drone

You will always be able to go to a track and drive however you want. I want my a to b needs to be autonomous.

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 Post subject: Re: The end of work?
PostPosted: Tue Apr 26, 2016 1:35 pm 
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I like driving and being a drone.

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 Post subject: Re: The end of work?
PostPosted: Tue Apr 26, 2016 1:56 pm 
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America wrote:
Nah the media-propaganda machine will just continue to vilify the poor, and as long as not everyone is poor most Americans will buy it.

It's funny how neoliberalism and identity politics have merged. We still believe identity is sacrosanct, but class is something you chose. When IMU says "I'm sorry you're poor," we all have a good exasperated chuckle. When Elmhurst Steve says "I'm sorry you're black," we want to run him over with a non-self-driving car.

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 Post subject: Re: The end of work?
PostPosted: Tue Apr 26, 2016 2:24 pm 
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pittmike wrote:
I imagine the DUI would go the way of the dodo bird.


Replace with a fine system for online harassment. JDC will push for that effort.

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 Post subject: Re: The end of work?
PostPosted: Tue Apr 26, 2016 2:34 pm 
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pittmike wrote:
conns7901 wrote:
With all the money state,county and city police department make on moving violations I have trouble seeing this becoming widespread in America. Unless they find another way to make the money up.


I imagine the DUI would go the way of the dodo bird.





Going to billions in lost revenue from no DUI or red light or speeding tickets or parking tix...

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 Post subject: Re: The end of work?
PostPosted: Tue Apr 26, 2016 2:49 pm 
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pittmike wrote:
I think Americans love for cars and driving is going to be a little obstacle.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eULGEKncHvI

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 Post subject: Re: The end of work?
PostPosted: Tue Apr 26, 2016 3:21 pm 
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yeah, a popular topic on here:

viewtopic.php?f=47&t=92615&start=50

viewtopic.php?f=47&t=81906&start=25


i agree that there are going to be a host of issues transitioning to self-driving vehicles.

Municipalities losing money is about the least important of them....they'll simply stop paying pensions and be fine; which is what we're headed for anyhow, a nationalization of bs state and local pension and retirement pie-in-the-sky, were never gonna be paid plans.

The transitional violence/"uprisings" as drone vehicles take over for truckers, cabbies and other commercial drivers are no doubt inevitable. You disenfranchise financially that many folks
and some segment of them are going to take up arms against the government/other people/whomever.

But note that something like 15 million Americans of working age and ability have left the work force over the last 8 years. 7 million truckers + cabbies being permanently laid off over the next decade is not something the US cannot handle. Only about half US the is currently counted among the labor force. so it's not like there aren't assloads of people not working and getting along just fine already.

I think when they extended unemployment benefits for 2 or 3 years back after the housing market cratering, we saw how easily people who had previously been part of the work force, earning decent wages were able to exist/subsist even be content/happy on under $2K a month.

that's an amount you can get out to folks via a negative income tax or some other permanent support scheme. and it still wouldn't even be a double-digit % of the annual DoD budget.


give people enough to have a place to live, buy happy meals, pay their internet/cable bills, co-pay on their ssris and other mood stablizers and things will be fine.


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 Post subject: Re: The end of work?
PostPosted: Tue Apr 26, 2016 3:31 pm 
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The self-driving vehicles are only a small segment of what is coming though. There are already computers writing news stories for ESPN, and Google has an entire team working on general A.I.

Labor is rapidly becoming less and less necessary.

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 Post subject: Re: The end of work?
PostPosted: Tue Apr 26, 2016 3:32 pm 
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WaitingforRuffcorn wrote:
There are already computers writing news stories for ESPN


how about robot update people ?


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 Post subject: Re: The end of work?
PostPosted: Tue Apr 26, 2016 3:33 pm 
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Manual labor and/or unskilled labor will go away but there will still be jobs. We'll just work less hours and have to concentrate more on experiences and leisure work.

You'll have a new section of consumer that has to fill free time to enjoy life.

Also, we'll have to pretty much stop illegal immigration for good.

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