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 Post subject: Re: The end of work?
PostPosted: Tue Apr 26, 2016 4:25 pm 
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WaitingforRuffcorn wrote:

Labor is rapidly becoming less and less necessary.


and socialism is becoming more necessary but less important

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 Post subject: Re: The end of work?
PostPosted: Tue Apr 26, 2016 4:26 pm 
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pittmike wrote:
312player wrote:
pittmike wrote:
I think Americans love for cars and driving is going to be a little obstacle.




That's what they said 120 years ago about horses and carriages when the combustible engine was invented.


But when the car came along you were still in control of your horse so to speak.


but it did put all the horses out of a job

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 Post subject: Re: The end of work?
PostPosted: Tue Apr 26, 2016 4:34 pm 
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The lawyers making a living off DUI and traffic offenses will feel it just as bad as the police department making revenue off the traffic offenses..I'm going to say the loss in the trillions not billions.

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 Post subject: Re: The end of work?
PostPosted: Tue Apr 26, 2016 4:46 pm 
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IMU wrote:
I like driving and being a drone.


drone being is underrated

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 Post subject: Re: The end of work?
PostPosted: Tue Apr 26, 2016 4:54 pm 
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WaitingforRuffcorn wrote:
The self-driving vehicles are only a small segment of what is coming though. There are already computers writing news stories for ESPN, and Google has an entire team working on general A.I..


CBS does this for its weekly updates on my fantasy league. The reports seemed cool the first week but soon became painfully formulaic.

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 Post subject: Re: The end of work?
PostPosted: Tue Apr 26, 2016 5:37 pm 
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there's a chef-bot out there:

http://www.theverge.com/2015/7/31/90762 ... rab-bisque

so far, we seem to be building 1 to 1 robots who replicate and replace individual humans doing individual human activity with one "robot".

recall a film from about 20 years ago, Fast, Cheap and Out of Control, which highlighted "nano-bots"--insanely small robots who when deployed in groups could do things like explore Mars, keep your tv clean, replace soldiers in the military.

maybe something like arduino vs raspberry pi, but on a much smaller scale in terms of size of the individuals bots.

eg., a collection of "nano bots" who were deployed to maintain landscaping/shrubbery--you could program how often and in what design they maintained specific shrubs etc.

or nano-bots that "lived" in your sink and any time you dropped a dirty dish in the sink, came out and cleaned it cleaner than any human or dishwasher.

https://youtu.be/wFukiQOvDYs

probably the most likely and best use of nano-bots would/will be in health care--say, inject nano-bots into the blood stream to clean out arteries?


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 Post subject: Re: The end of work?
PostPosted: Tue Apr 26, 2016 5:48 pm 
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chaspoppcap wrote:
pittmike wrote:
I think Americans love for cars and driving is going to be a little obstacle.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eULGEKncHvI


Good choice Chas.

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 Post subject: Re: The end of work?
PostPosted: Tue Apr 26, 2016 6:32 pm 
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Hussra wrote:
there's a chef-bot out there:

http://www.theverge.com/2015/7/31/90762 ... rab-bisque

so far, we seem to be building 1 to 1 robots who replicate and replace individual humans doing individual human activity with one "robot".

recall a film from about 20 years ago, Fast, Cheap and Out of Control, which highlighted "nano-bots"--insanely small robots who when deployed in groups could do things like explore Mars, keep your tv clean, replace soldiers in the military.

maybe something like arduino vs raspberry pi, but on a much smaller scale in terms of size of the individuals bots.

eg., a collection of "nano bots" who were deployed to maintain landscaping/shrubbery--you could program how often and in what design they maintained specific shrubs etc.

or nano-bots that "lived" in your sink and any time you dropped a dirty dish in the sink, came out and cleaned it cleaner than any human or dishwasher.

https://youtu.be/wFukiQOvDYs

probably the most likely and best use of nano-bots would/will be in health care--say, inject nano-bots into the blood stream to clean out arteries?


The most likely human use for all technology is something porn related

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 Post subject: Re: The end of work?
PostPosted: Tue Apr 26, 2016 6:32 pm 
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Hussra wrote:
probably the most likely and best use of nano-bots would/will be in health care--say, inject nano-bots into the blood stream to clean out arteries?


arteries? how about kill cancer cells. regulate blood sugars. carry oxygen to places it normally doesnt get to... the list goes on. of course, they could be used for terrible things in the hands of evil, but if done right they could potentially solve all illnesses pretty much instantly.

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 Post subject: Re: The end of work?
PostPosted: Wed Apr 27, 2016 8:50 am 
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good dolphin wrote:
WaitingforRuffcorn wrote:
The self-driving vehicles are only a small segment of what is coming though. There are already computers writing news stories for ESPN, and Google has an entire team working on general A.I..


CBS does this for its weekly updates on my fantasy league. The reports seemed cool the first week but soon became painfully formulaic.


That was only the initial effort. And you are probably more engaged that most casual players. Do they even notice?

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 Post subject: Re: The end of work?
PostPosted: Wed Apr 27, 2016 12:28 pm 
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Hussra wrote:
there's a chef-bot out there:

Image


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 Post subject: Re: The end of work?
PostPosted: Tue May 17, 2016 1:01 am 
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Image


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 Post subject: Re: The end of work?
PostPosted: Tue May 17, 2016 1:02 am 
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so they want current truckers to train their robot replacements:

Quote:
Now, Otto is looking for 1,000 truckers to volunteer to have self-driving kits installed on their cabs, at no cost, to help fine-tune the technology. The volunteer truckers would still be expected to seize the wheel and take control of the truck if the technology fails or the driving conditions make it unsafe to remain in autonomous mode, mirroring the laws governing tests of self-driving cars on public streets and highways.

Otto hasn't set a timetable for completing its tests, but hopes to eventually retrofit all the U.S. trucks on the road. That would encompass more than 4.7 million trucks, according to the American Trucking Associations.

The startup touts its technology as way to make up for a worsening shortage of truck drivers as more of them retire without enough younger drivers to replace them. Last year, the shortage stood at 47,500 and, unless recent trends change, will rise to nearly 175,000 by 2024, according to the American Trucking Associations.

The trade group hasn't taken a stand on self-driving technology, but may draw up a policy later this year, said Dave Osiecki, executive vice president and chief of national advocacy.

"We are paying close attention because this could be huge for trucking in terms of labor costs and safety," Osiecki says.

Levandowski insists self-driving trucks aren't as scary as they might sound. Robot truckers are less likely to speed or continue to drive in unsafe conditions than a human, and will never get tired. Between 10 and 20 percent of the roughly 4,000 fatal accidents in the U.S. each year involving trucks and buses are linked to driver fatigue, based on estimates gathered by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine.

"It's really silly to have a person steering a truck for eight hours just to keep it between two lines on the highway," Levandowski says.


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 Post subject: Re: The end of work?
PostPosted: Tue May 17, 2016 7:16 am 
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There is a lot of work going on right now on "truck platooning" which uses concepts originally developed for the military. The technology is there, co-workers of mine have seen demos of it out in California. The public policy issue is how to implement equitably and effectively. For example, do you sign up your truck to a specific platoon, sort of like a ferry boat?

You're going to see this first in California, because consistency in vehicle operations means less congestion delays, which means less emissions per ton of cargo. And there is so much stuff going in and out of the LA and Oakland ports that they'll find the critical mass of mostly identical rig setups (a truck pulling an intermodal container) to make it work even on an opt-in basis.

The other public policy issue is that we already don't have enough jobs for stupid people. We used to send them off to wars and get them killed, and if they didn't get killed, they pumped gas or mindlessly installed screws into appliances all day long.

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 Post subject: Re: The end of work?
PostPosted: Tue May 17, 2016 7:38 am 
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Euro truck platoon last month:

http://arstechnica.com/cars/2016/04/eur ... latooning/


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 Post subject: Re: The end of work?
PostPosted: Tue May 17, 2016 7:47 am 
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Can we get rid of public transportation yet?

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 Post subject: Re: The end of work?
PostPosted: Tue May 17, 2016 8:03 am 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
Can we get rid of public transportation yet?


I'd imagine once most people no longer have jobs, they won't need public transit as much.


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 Post subject: Re: The end of work?
PostPosted: Tue May 17, 2016 8:33 am 
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It's not just the truckers that the machines are coming for.

http://www.npr.org/sections/health-shot ... cal-errors

http://www.medicaldaily.com/robot-surge ... ous-386079

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 Post subject: Re: The end of work?
PostPosted: Tue May 17, 2016 8:36 am 
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We in our generation (very broadly defined) are really poised to see some really cool shit in our lifetimes. Whether as a society we can deal with it I do not know.

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 Post subject: Re: The end of work?
PostPosted: Tue May 17, 2016 8:40 am 
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WaitingforRuffcorn wrote:
You'd need true artificial intelligence(not massive memorization like the robots that win at chess and jeopardy). We are still many decades from that if we can ever do it.

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 Post subject: Re: The end of work?
PostPosted: Tue May 17, 2016 9:27 am 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
WaitingforRuffcorn wrote:
You'd need true artificial intelligence(not massive memorization like the robots that win at chess and jeopardy). We are still many decades from that if we can ever do it.


Google is working on A.I. But many basic surgeries may not need A.I. They are basically a construction project.

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Why are only 14 percent of black CPS 11th-graders proficient in English?

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 Post subject: Re: The end of work?
PostPosted: Tue May 17, 2016 9:33 am 
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WaitingforRuffcorn wrote:
Google is working on A.I. But many basic surgeries may not need A.I. They are basically a construction project.
Until something goes wrong or there is a non-standard set of circumstances.

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 Post subject: Re: The end of work?
PostPosted: Tue May 17, 2016 10:49 am 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
WaitingforRuffcorn wrote:
Google is working on A.I. But many basic surgeries may not need A.I. They are basically a construction project.
Until something goes wrong or there is a non-standard set of circumstances.


If you read the medical error article, something "goes wrong" all the time in our current medical system. The machine is a tool, and it will probably go wrong fewer times than a human in the right cases.

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 Post subject: Re: The end of work?
PostPosted: Tue May 17, 2016 10:57 am 
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WaitingforRuffcorn wrote:
If you read the medical error article, something "goes wrong" all the time in our current medical system. The machine is a tool, and it will probably go wrong fewer times than a human in the right cases.
Um no. Those are completely different things.

We'd need true artificial intelligence to do any complex surgery. You can download the steps required to do a heart transplant. The reason you wouldn't be good at it is because a lot of decisions need to be made and computer are still relatively poor at true decision making.

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 Post subject: Re: The end of work?
PostPosted: Tue May 17, 2016 12:28 pm 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
WaitingforRuffcorn wrote:
If you read the medical error article, something "goes wrong" all the time in our current medical system. The machine is a tool, and it will probably go wrong fewer times than a human in the right cases.
Um no. Those are completely different things.

We'd need true artificial intelligence to do any complex surgery. You can download the steps required to do a heart transplant. The reason you wouldn't be good at it is because a lot of decisions need to be made and computer are still relatively poor at true decision making.


You are debating different topics. It is going to start out with simple tasks, and move on to more difficult surgeries later. There are already machines assisting in difficult surgeries. But for more simple outpatient surgeries there might be a physician to check then you go to the machine.

As for A.I. read up on Alpha Go. Google is figuring out A.I. and only the extreme skeptics think it will never occur. Maybe it will be 10 years, maybe 50, but once the first A.I. is created it is going to be replicated rapidly.

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 Post subject: Re: The end of work?
PostPosted: Tue May 17, 2016 12:43 pm 
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WaitingforRuffcorn wrote:
You are debating different topics. It is going to start out with simple tasks, and move on to more difficult surgeries later. There are already machines assisting in difficult surgeries. But for more simple outpatient surgeries there might be a physician to check then you go to the machine.
I know. Some of the tasks are automated but you will need a surgeon until we literally have true artificial intelligence that is the equivalent in decision making to a human. That is a long way away.
WaitingforRuffcorn wrote:
As for A.I. read up on Alpha Go. Google is figuring out A.I. and only the extreme skeptics think it will never occur. Maybe it will be 10 years, maybe 50, but once the first A.I. is created it is going to be replicated rapidly.
I mean, once we basically create robot life then obviously they could replace any job. That is a long way away.

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