I hate being a Raiders fan. Who do I have to talk to about buying a post-bandwagon batch of Bears Kool Aid for 2010?

2008 NFL Mock Draft (to Chicago at #14):

1. Dolphins - Quinn Dorsey - DT - LSU - With the first pick in the 2008 NFL Draft, the Miami Dolphins select...Bill Parcells. With the addition of Parcells and his philosophies, you have to wonder if the Dolphins will realize that there is far more value in trading the #1 overall pick than to actually use it. If you can acquire a pair of 1st rounders, stay in the top 10 of this draft, get out of position to not have to pay $30 million up front, and still have to risk a 50/50 bust rate, they should do it. Assuming they keep the pick, they should take either DE Chris Long or DT Quinn Dorsey. The Dolphins had the worst run defense in the NFL and their defense is getting ancient. Dorsey is one of the most versatile players in the draft because of his speed and he'd be a key feature in a rebuilding defense.

2. Rams - Chris Long - DE - Virginia - The Rams were bad in every aspect of football this year. They couldn't run or pass the ball due to a vast assortment of injuries on offense, and they couldn't play defense in any way shape or form. The Rams decision will be which side of the ball to add a key line prospect. Orlando Pace can't stay healthy and without him, they are a different team. That could make the Rams want to add a guy like Jake Long to groom as the short term replacement for an aging Orlando Pace. That being said, the team was horrible on defense and the addition of a guy who can rush the passer and hold up against the run, like Chris Long, could be too good to pass up. I think the Rams will go for the DE and hope they can come away with a Mario Williams type playmaker.

3. Raiders - Jake Long - OT - Michigan - First of all, the fact that the Raiders are picking here hasn't been determined yet. All we know is that they will pick no lower than 4th, but either the Falcons could be picking here. A coin toss will sort this out at the combine. If the Falcons win the toss, they will pick 4th, the Raiders 5th, and the Chiefs 6th. If the Raiders win, the Falcons and Chiefs will flip for 4th and 5th. We'll rotate these with our projections. Right now, we'll go with the Raiders who will decide if their top 7 rushing offense was good enough to not draft McFadden or if a potential loss of Justin Fargas will be enough for the team to take McFadden over an anchor LT like Jake Long to protect your franchise QB's backside for years to come. Personally, I think its 50/50, but a great combine will make McFadden the man.

4. Falcons - Darren McFadden - RB - Arkansas - There isn't much question here. If the Falcons are on the board and so is McFadden, he will be their pick. McFadden will replace an aging RB and a nice change of pace back in Atlanta and become their feature back for the next 10 years. He may be the best overall player in this draft and the Falcons rushing game was among the worst in the NFL this year. McFadden could go earlier to the Raiders if they pick ahead, but right now, I'm saying 50/50 he winds up in either Oakland or Atlanta unless Miami deals the #1 overall pick.

5. Chiefs - Matt Ryan - QB - Boston College - The Chiefs were the worst rushing offense in the NFL this year. In his defense, Larry Johnson was injured for a significant portion of the season. But the Chiefs couldn't throw the ball and that led to a consistent 8 in the box against LJ. With the emergence of Dwayne Bowe on the outside, the Chiefs may have a weapon at WR for the first time in a decade. Now they need someone to consistently get him the ball. I can see the Chiefs taking the top QB to emerge in the offseason and right now, for the sake of argument, we'll say that Matt Ryan is that guy. They should take the top QB and between him or Croyle, they should have a solid QB by midseason.

6. Jets - Vernon Gholston - DE/OLB - Ohio State - The Jets finished the season with one of the worst rush defenses in the NFL. While James Laurinitis is a possibility here, a tweener freak DE/OLB like Gholston is a nice fit in a hybrid 3-4/4-3 defense that the Jets run. Gholston is powerful enough to play DE, but he is clearly fast enough to play OLB and routinely drops into coverage for the Buckeyes. Gholston adds versatility to a very versatile defense. Either way, the Jets will look to add depth to this defense in the 1st round.

7. Patriots via 49ers - James Laurinitis - LB - Ohio State - The other guy, either Gholston or Laurinitis, is likely to wind up in New England. Their LB core is getting ancient and either of these players bring a ton of ability to the Patriots style of defense. For a team that has little in terms of weaknesses, Teddy Bruschi and Junior Seau's replacement could be the most intelligent way to go with a pick this high. LB's tend to pan out when they are high picks as much as OT's do, so a quality player from an NFL football factory like OSU is a great selection.

8. Ravens - Brian Brohm - QB - Louisville - The Ravens have parted ways with Brian Billick and their QB issues have been well documented. The Ravens have a solid running game and McGahee is still a young, quality back. McNair will probably be hanging it up this offseason and Brohm could stop in and compete with Kyle Boller to start from Day 1. Either way, with Troy Smith as a quality #3 QB, the Ravens could have quite a bit of talent stockpiled at the position in 2008 with someone likely to emerge from this group and be effective.

9. Bengals - Keith Rivers - LB - USC - The Bengals defese is terrible. They will make some changes on offense this offseason, but they have enough talent to be a contender over there. Where they need help is on defense. Rivers is a big, fast, and very strong LB who plays the game with an attitude. He is the total package if he can grasp the mental aspects of Marvin Lewis' scheme. With a team that struggles stopping the run and the pass, a LB who can fill the hole, get sideline to sideline, and drop into coverage, is a very nice asset to have.

10. Saints - Kenny Phillips - S - Miami (FL) - Phillips, as we've discussed in many of these email chains, is a phenomenal talent. He comes from a very undisciplined program, so that could create an adjustment at the NFL level, but Phillips is the best secondary player in this draft and the Saints were the 3rd worst team in the league stopping the pass. Phillips incredible range and explosive hitting power will make him someone to be feared by WR's in this league. He should step right into the Saints starting lineup and contribute from day 1.

11. Bills - Sedrick Ellis - DT - USC - The Bills defense was terrible this year. They have to find a way to get penetration to stuff the run and get after the QB. Ellis is that answer. He is a decent sized DT, but has outstanding explosion and plays with great leverage. His ability to help get after the QB can improve the passing game and his disruptive ability to wreak havoc in the backfield will help against the run. Ellis can be that force inside that the Bills are missing.

12. Broncos - Malcolm Jenkins - CB/FS - Ohio State - The Broncos are loaded at CB, but Malcolm Jenkins has played half this season at FS due to the emergence of a couple of young CB's for the Buckeyes. That experience and his success at that position (leading the team in interceptions) allowed the Buckeyes to prevent teams from going away from Jenkins and made him much more marketable in the NFL. His addition to the Broncos makes them capable of manning up with just about any teams three WR sets and should allow the team to be much more aggressive in an attempt to prevent teams from running all over them next year.

13. Panthers - Andre Woodson - QB - Kentucky - Again, the QB is not the issue here, as much as the fact that all three QB's could be gone at this point (one spot before the Bears pick). There is no doubt that the Panthers need a QB and they need one bad. If they can get another year out of the aging wonderboy back their now, then it would give Woodson a chance to sit for a year and target 2009 to become the man. Either way, the Panthers can't afford to pass on a chance to land a Franchise QB and Woodson is the pick.

14. Bears - Ryan Clady - OT - Boise State - With all of the QB's off the board here for Chicago, I think they need to add the best O-line prospect they can. If Fred Miller is gone and the Bears do add Alan Faneca, then they will still be needing a RT and may not be able to afford a guy like Travelle Wharton. That means they may expect their 1st round pick to step right in start from day one and Clady is a perfect RT prospect. He is very athletic and has great size. He can run block and stop elite pass rushers at the next level, but his likelihood of being a RT may prevent him from going higher in the draft. Other possibilities here are WR Malcolm Kelly, OT Jeff Otah, WR DeSean Jackson, WR Limas Sweed, RB Felix Jones, or OT Sam Baker (if healthy).

who is this quinn dorsey fella?

The plan at QB may be to make a pitch at a veteran QB, like Daunte Culpepper. The Bears may not have a shot at a top QB in the draft. If they get one (Brohm, Ryan, Woodson), (assuming Grossman is definitely gone), that could spell the end of Griese, too.

Or, in plan B, they can skip bringing in a vet, take a gamble that one of the top guys will fall to 14 in the draft (50/50 shot at this point) and then default to taking a QB in the 2nd/3rd round if they are all gone in the 1st...and Grossman is again gone. That 2nd round list would be guys projected in the 2nd or 3rd round, like:

1. Joe Flacco - Delaware
2. Colt Brennan - Hawaii
3. Erik Ainge - Tennessee
4. John David Booty - USC

Pass on Derek Anderson - This guy fizzled down the stretch and threw 7 INT's in 4 games, probably cost his team a shot at the playoffs. The fans there feel that he is a one year wonder (or 2/3 year wonder, to be precise).

Yeah you're right. Let's pass on the 24 year old 6'6" QB who's starting season was better then Peyton Mannings.

Let's just trade Archuletta for Tom Brady.

For potentially a 1st and 3rd rounder, yeah, I'll pass.

I doubt NE makes that trade.

I don't understand the question on the Dolphins. Their defense struggled severely this year. The top 3 players in the draft, at this point, appear to be a pair of D-lineman and a RB. They have a RB, so that only adds value to their pick if they deal it, which I addressed the fact that I think they should do just that. But if they keep the pick, their horrible defense, combined with the next top two players being D-lineman is a good fit for them. That means that it would appear that a great game by Dorsey could keep him at the top. They struggled to stuff the run last year and a DT who can both stuff the run and rush the passer, creating havoc inside (like a healthy Tommie Harris) would be a valuable asset to that team. I would guess that if a team felt they could get Tommie Harris with the 1st overall pick, and they needed a DT, they would take him. DE Chris Long is also a dominant D-lineman, and can both rush the passer and hold up against the run, so he is also a possible pick here.

With this pick, I'm banking on the Dolphins keeping the pick (I won't speculate on a trade when nobody is even mentioning one yet) and Dorsey having a good game against very good O-lineman at OSU, keeping himself at the top of the draft and the #1 overall pick.

Who did you think they would take?

We have an extra 3rd round so we'd still have a 3rd rounder. Plus maybe we can trade down in the 1st to a lower 1st round pick and pick up another 3rd or 4th round pick.

Also its sounding like DA may go for a 2nd and 3rd now.

The Browns don't have a 1st round pick this year, so we wouldn't be able to move into the late 1st. We'd have to move into the 2nd and give up a 3rd for a guy who has been a solid QB for 2/3 of a season in his 3 year career. Plus, he'll require a huge contract along the lines of what the Texans gave their QB last offseason in a similar trade.

Even if it's a 2nd and 4th, my opinion is still no. Because its not a 2nd and a 4th.

Its a 2nd, a 4th, and $15 million up front on a $40-50 million deal. And no, I would not invest that much into such an unproven commodity. Especially since out team does not have Jamal Lewis, Braylon Edwards, and the best O-line in the league to protect him here. On top of that, he choked down the stretch with his team's season on the line.

Quinn Dorsey



Quinn Dorsey
#30
Position: DL
College: Oregon
Height: 6'4"
Weight: 269
DOB: 04/01/1980
AFL Experience: R

I meant trading down the 1st round from 14 to say 29th overall for a late 3rd round pick. That gives us an extra 3rd (actually it would give us 3 3rd round picks). Then trade one 3rd and the 29th overall for DA.

I think DA's contract will be something like 5m/yr.

What's with all the Derek Anderson hate?
I'm not claiming to have seen every down of every game he played, but I think he's pretty F*&^ing good!
He came into the season as the backup QB and also had Brady Quinn sitting next to him as the "future" of the franchise. That usually means he likely wasn't given the same preparation as either of the other two QBs on the team. Maybe he "fizzled" down the stretch and maybe he didn't...but the Browns were 3-1 in their last 4 games & they played in a blizzard against Buffalo and a wind-filled game against Cincinnati where they simply should not have been passing so much from the beginning. It's seems pretty clear that he's a difference maker and would be the type of guy I'd like to have as a QB.
However....I don't see any likely scenarios where the Bears can get Anderson and be able to address any of there other needs with what's left. So basically, forget DA.
Maybe Culpepper can lead the Bears to the playoffs like "someone" out here said he would do with the Raiders this year

Definitely agree that he has offensive weapons that are in a completely different league than the Bears, that can't be denied. But to simply say he's a taller Rex Grossman kinda discounts that fact that if Rex Grossman were 6'6", he would probably be better. Seeing the field better just makes it easier if you also have the talent. It does make a difference when combined with all of the factors. I don't think he's worth a 1st and a 3rd (until I find out who we pick with the 1st and the 3rd) or the $20M guranteed....but I'm not too sure he'll get quite that much $$$. Besides, whatever the price is, I'm guessing it'll still be too steep for the Bears even if it's less that $20M. I just think he's better than what some are saying...I'm thinking he could be like a Drew Bledsoe. Maybe could be voted into the Hall of Very Good some day.

DA posted these numbers this year.

3700 yards 29 TD 19 Ints QB rating 82.5

Compared to the 1st year of these QBs
Tom Brady 2800 yards 18 TDs 12 Ints QB rating 86.5
Brett Favre 3200 yards 18 TDs 13 Ints QB rating 85.3
Payton Manning 3700 yards 26 TDs 28 Ints QB rating 71.2
John Elway 2600 yards 18 TDs 15 Ints QB rating 76.8
Warren Moon 3300 yards 12 TDs 14 Ints QB rating 76.9
Joe Montana 3500 yards 19 TDs 12 Ints QB rating 88.4
Jim Kelly 3600 yards 22 TDs 17 Ints QB rating 83.3

Not saying DA will be as great as these QBs but he's got a better chance then any draft pick. Plus the opportunity to pick up a player with this potential rarely comes around. Yes it's a risk. But so is paying a rookie QB in the 1st round. Paying them close to the same money as DA. Losing 2 years for the QB to develop is also costly.

In all fairness, that wasn't Joe Montana's first year & Warren Moon and Jim Kelly were not rookies to pro football in their "first" year either. Also, John Elway kinda walked into a playoff ready team just because of a shitty strike shortened season the year before. I'm not arguing with what your point is, more like the opposite. Only Brady or Favre (from this list) can brag about taking a team that hasn't been good for a couple of years and making them winners and also being the main reason for it. Sure the Browns have some excellent offensive weapons, but it didn't seem to help Charlie Frye. Most quarterbacks with the type of #s Anderson put up this earlier in his career end up with a good career (maybe not great)....if you ignore injury.

On all the examples I used the 1st full year starting since it's the same situation w/ Anderson. For example, Joe Montana was a rookie 1979 but I used his 1981 stats. The stats for Kelly and Moon are their actual first year starting. I didn't just hand pick QBs either. I just got tired of pulling up random elite QB stats. The only rookie that really blows everyone away was Marino so I didn't use him since he breaks the curve for everyone else.

I see your point about turning a poor franchise around. But for whatever reason DA attractors like to point out that DA works with superior talent in Edwards and Winslow & O-Line. (somehow they also forget Edwards and Winslow were on the team in the past).

Trade out of the 14th pick. The Bears need bodies. Lots of bodies.

Boise State's Clady to enter NFL draft

Boise State left tackle Ryan Clady will forgo his final season of eligibility and enter the NFL Draft, he said Tuesday.Clady, a 6-foot-6, 317-pounder from Rialto, Calif., has been projected as a high first-round pick in April's NFL Draft. In a Dec. 17 mock draft on ESPN.com, Clady was projected as the No. 7 pick in the first round by Kansas City, which now picks fifth.

He said he made the decision after the Broncos' 41-38 loss to East Carolina in the Hawaii Bowl on Dec. 23.

"I was just kind of ready for a little change," said Clady, who earned consensus All-America honors during his junior season.

Clady is believed to be the first Boise State football player to leave school early for the NFL.

The day is gone when trading down automatically assures value. Every GM goes into draft day trying to trade down; a few years ago, you could do that with impunity. Everyone has caught on now. If you can get decent value, go ahead, but otherwise, stay pat.

BTW, I'm going to tear my hear out with every mention of the Johnson chart this spring. I swear that I don't think the teams are using them anymore and have a new adjusted version which takes account of the lower value of very high picks and the higher value of late 1st-early 2nd picks. But I could be wrong.

JA still uses it. Proof by the trading up move w/ Thomas Jones. Then trading that pick to Carolina who gave us 3 (including a 3rd rounder this year) picks in return that equaled the value of the higher 2nd round pick they got.

It's not always invalid, and I think that picks 50 or so through the end are still about right. But I think that picks 1-50 have been massively re-evaluated, at least by some GMs. I'm not sure that they are ready to admit that to the public, however. And some of the examples are obvious; there isn't a GM in the league who wouldn't trade the 1st pick for picks 15-17, yet they are equal value (3000 points.)

The thing to remember is that the Johnson chart is a pre-cap valuation of draft picks. But each of the first 12 picks or so need to be penalized on the chart to take account of the large cap numbers those picks will take up with no guarantee of future production, while the lower 1st round/high second round picks need to be raised because of their cheapness when compared to the likelyhood of getting a good player. It's not always true, but in general it is. That's why trading down in the strict sense- 1 pick for two or whatever- is so rare now.

There is one real exception to this: when a team has one player they value so much that they'll throw "value" to the wind. One prime example is Eric Weddle last year with SD. According to the chart, Weddle was worth 530 points of value according to the traditional chart. They traded four picks to the Bears for that pick, and according to the traditional chart, the Bears got the "value". That's probably true even if you assume that pick 37 is now higher valued than it was at the time the chart was accurate. But if the Chargers value Weddle higher than anyone else they would take at that spot, it doesn't especially matter- they were willing to trade away some of that value as though they were taking Weddle with the 33rd pick or whatever. The Browns Quinn pick is another example of that.

I think the Thomas Jones trade was slightly different, however, in that it wasn't a true "trade down" but instead a pick for player trade, only the pick was taken in the form of a swap instead of a pure trade. According to the traditional chart, the swap (63 for 37, or 254 points) is equivalent to picking up a high 3rd round pick (pick 67). But the Jets didn't have a pick in that area, and JA regarded the lower third round pick as not enough value. Plus, I wouldn't be surprised if JA and the Jets GM Mike Tannenbaum had different valuations of pick 37 (all football GMs have had a bit of a "moneyball" mindset since the cap was initiated, but JA has followed this moer than most and was at the vanguard of reevaluating the traditional draft valuation, and statsguys have argued for a while that high second rounders are the best picks to hold based on a value:production ratio.)

Who would you rather have, Weddle or Wolfe?
I'm thinking Weddle.

1. Rex is probably not coming back to the Chicago Bears. I believe he will get a decent deal on the open market, which eliminates the idea of him being a "cheap" option. The Bears are simply saying if they can get him cheap, and they probably can't, they will bring him back. They are also dispelling the notion that he will get any kind of long term deal here.

2. Benson will be competing for the starting job this year. He will not be handed it on a silver platter. This is proof that despite what they are saying to the media, the Bears upper management believes that Benson choked and couldn't handle the gifted opportunity to be the sole starter. I keep hearing that you can expect a veteran to be brought in who is "starting caliber".

3. I believe Briggs and Berrian are gone. I believe Ayanbedajo will stay unless his salary gets drastically over inflated on the open market. I would love to keep him though for a reasonable price for a special teams ace.

4. I would not tag Bernard Berrian. There is no way I could justify giving that guy that kind of money unless they tagged him to control his trade rights. It is a bluff that could be called by other teams. If they can tag him and come away with a 2nd rounder for him, I'm all for it.

5. I think the Bears will keep Mike Brown, although that will depend on Mike being willing to restructure his existing deal to stay. If he is willing to convert his entire contract into basically a predominantly incentive based deal, how could the Bears pass on him?

Why do I get the feeling that the Bears are going to fall in love with Colt Brennan after his stock drops? I could see them considering him a value pick if he falls to the third round.

_________________
You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

Colt, and Hawaii, were given a major dose of reality in the Sugar Bowl. They had a baaaaad game. I don't think he even gets drafted. Maybe a team will check him out as a free agent, but he won't get drafted.

Wanna bet? I'll give you +500 for however much you want to wager.

I didn't follow the college game as much as I used to, but let me put this out there. How does John David Booty of USC project in the pros (or doesn't he)? Low round pick with potential upside?

I have not seen a single QB in this year's crop on who I would waste a first round pick. If either Long, Clady or Baker are there OT is the way to go in this draft. It is a strong Tackle class and it is a position that has been neglected for FAR too long.

If those three are gone, I would consider S or WR to be the next two priorities. However, the Bears could use a player at almost anywhere so take a top 1-2 at a position if he is there.

Grodilus (sp?) at BC and Oher at Ole Miss, if he comes out, are in this class as well, although pick 14 might be a stretch for each of them. Long definitely won't be there, but the other two may. As time goes on, I'm growing more and more sour on the QBs.

But I'm with you, GD: I'm dead set on an OT at this point. Tait was good this year, but he's older and more a natural RT, and the rest of the line, excepting Kreutz, played at an unacceptable level.

If, somehow, Dan Connor drops to #14, I'd be for that as well. And who knows what will shake out of the annual Combine Kabuki.