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PostPosted: Sun Jun 19, 2016 3:49 pm 
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FavreFan wrote:
Juice's Lecture Notes wrote:
FavreFan wrote:
Nas wrote:
JORR calls this season a small sample size but the ignores the same trend over 90% of his career starts.

I think you have that backwards. JORR is using his career total in an archaic, backward, meaningless statistic as the basis for his opinion.


FTFY

I think the only way you can make a case that W-L is meaningless is if you believe the players are robots and not subject to human emotion.


I posted earlier that a player's record is what he is, but you can add context to that record by using other statistics besides W/L.

I'm glad we agree

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PostPosted: Sun Jun 19, 2016 3:50 pm 
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leashyourkids wrote:
If JORR's argument is that over a career, wins and losses even themselves out, thus making it a reliable stat to rank careers, I wouldn't disagree. If you are ranking the best 20 pitchers ever and went by wins, you'd probably do okay.
99% of the time, this is correct.

Quintana is the outlier and part of the 1%

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PostPosted: Sun Jun 19, 2016 3:50 pm 
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Juice's Lecture Notes wrote:
leashyourkids wrote:
Just look at Quintana. It's not a good predictor of future success, and it's not the best stat within a small window.


It's not even a good descriptor of performance, because look at Quintana. Wins have him as a "losing" pitcher, tied for 44th in the league, but in reality he's one of the best in the league at getting people out and limiting run-scoring.


I agree... that's basically what I said. I just think that over a career, it's not bad. It evens itself out.

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PostPosted: Sun Jun 19, 2016 3:52 pm 
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leashyourkids wrote:
Juice's Lecture Notes wrote:
leashyourkids wrote:
Just look at Quintana. It's not a good predictor of future success, and it's not the best stat within a small window.


It's not even a good descriptor of performance, because look at Quintana. Wins have him as a "losing" pitcher, tied for 44th in the league, but in reality he's one of the best in the league at getting people out and limiting run-scoring.


I agree... that's basically what I said. I just think that over a career, it's not bad. It evens itself out.


Unless the Sox have a bad offense for the next 10 years.

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PostPosted: Sun Jun 19, 2016 4:38 pm 
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Juice's Lecture Notes wrote:
leashyourkids wrote:
Just look at Quintana. It's not a good predictor of future success, and it's not the best stat within a small window.


It's not even a good descriptor of performance, because look at Quintana. Wins have him as a "losing" pitcher, tied for 44th in the league, but in reality he's one of the best in the league at getting people out and limiting run-scoring.


This is really the crux of the argument. You've read a bunch of shit that has convinced you that baseball is a non-competitive sport, that game context is meaningless, and that each player just focuses on his task and it's completely divorced from anything else. You truly believe that a pitcher's job is simply getting people out and limiting run-scoring. I don't blame you for that. It's a popular opinion. An opinion that makes people give up number 1 picks for Shelby Miller and think that Quintana is great.

A pitcher's job is not some abstract on a sheet with a bunch of numbers and averages. It only exists within the actual games he pitches. You can't take a 7 inning 2 run performance from a game that Quintana pitched where the Sox were shut out and move it to a different game where the Sox scored ten runs. A pitcher's job is to give up less runs than the guy(s) he is facing in the games he pitches. Sometimes that means walking a hitter on purpose, something you would obviously never do if your job were actually to get him out. I now understand why you feel Vazquez was better than Buehrle. It's a disagreement over what each was actually attempting to accomplish.

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PostPosted: Sun Jun 19, 2016 5:23 pm 
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So put JORR down for the pitchers that gives up 6 to 10 runs and gets the W.

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PostPosted: Sun Jun 19, 2016 5:40 pm 
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I love these discussions. I go back to Carlton's '72 season where he won almost half of his team's victories. Could one of you young whippersnappers post Carlton's run support from his 72 season, the run support for the other Phillie starters and any other relevant modern stats. I'm curious to see the difference.

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PostPosted: Sun Jun 19, 2016 5:55 pm 
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Nas wrote:
So put JORR down for the pitchers that gives up 6 to 10 runs and gets the W.

This is like Sidney and Billy arguing. You want your pitchers to look good first, and win second, right?

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PostPosted: Sun Jun 19, 2016 6:56 pm 
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FavreFan wrote:
Nas wrote:
So put JORR down for the pitchers that gives up 6 to 10 runs and gets the W.

This is like Sidney and Billy arguing. You want your pitchers to look good first, and win second, right?


I just want my pitcher to consistently give me a chance to win. In over 60% of his career starts (85) Quintana has held his opponents to 2 runs or less and in only 14 starts (10% of his starts) has he given up more than 4 runs. Quintana has given up fewer runs every year of his career but the results have gotten worse because the Sox don't score.

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PostPosted: Sun Jun 19, 2016 6:57 pm 
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FavreFan wrote:
Nas wrote:
So put JORR down for the pitchers that gives up 6 to 10 runs and gets the W.

This is like Sidney and Billy arguing. You want your pitchers to look good first, and win second, right?


That is a very poor representation of this argument. That would be a better argument against people who think intentionals walks are a "bitch move." ;)

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PostPosted: Sun Jun 19, 2016 9:10 pm 
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Put me down for the guy that wins rather than the guy that gives his team a chance to win.


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 20, 2016 6:31 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Juice's Lecture Notes wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
within the space of a single game the offenses are virtually the same


Except, they're not. That .6 R/G difference is more than 1 standard deviation of the R/G distribution of the AL, or 30% of the entire spread of the distribution. The Sox are, almost, an entire standard deviation from the mean of the AL R/G distribution, which the Indians are above.

Within the context of the AL run environment, that nominal .6 R/G difference is not at all insignificant.



How can a team score .6 of a run? PRACTICAL.


https://youtu.be/h5JXrP8yv8o?t=37

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PostPosted: Mon Jun 20, 2016 6:37 am 
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It is sad that you can spend such a long time being unlucky while pitchers like Buerhle and Maddux spend their careers being so lucky.

I'm starting to think that baseball would be a lot more fair if the only hits and runs that counted were home runs.

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PostPosted: Mon Jun 20, 2016 8:29 am 
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leashyourkids wrote:
Nas wrote:
Frank Coztansa wrote:
Over Quintana's last 7 starts, the Sox have scored a total of 5 runs.


JORR thinks that's enough run support.


:lol: As someone who doesn't care either way, that's a pretty damning stat. That can't possibly just be "conditions."


PESKY FACT NO. 1: Jose Quintana loses more decisions than he wins.

PESKY FACT NO. 2: In the games that he loses, in most cases the opposing pitchers are holding the Sox further under their scoring average than Quintana is the team he is facing.

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PostPosted: Mon Jun 20, 2016 8:34 am 
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See how many games you win facing Danny Duffy, pal.

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PostPosted: Mon Jun 20, 2016 1:36 pm 
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I need to see some Jose Quintana gamescores before I can change my mind.

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