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PostPosted: Mon Jun 27, 2016 2:43 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
TurdFerguson wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
TurdFerguson wrote:
2013 was an interesting year for Sale and Quintana. Some how while giving up more runs, more walks and striking out fewer batter, Jose was better than sale. Thankfully he was more effective at coxing his own offense in scoring runs.

Code:
#   Name      W   L   GS   IP   K/9   BB/9   BABI   ERA   FIP   xFIP   WAR   RS/9
1   Chris Sa   11   14   30   214   9.49   1.93   .289   3.07   3.17   2.95   4.9   3.19
2   Jose Qu   9   7   33   200   7.38   2.52   .283   3.51   3.82   3.86   3.5   3.78


Who is asking a pitcher to "coax" anyone into scoring runs? If a guy is so good, he should be able to allow less runs than the lesser guys he faces most of the time, shouldn't he? (I know JLN is fantasizing that the Sox face Koufax every time Quintana toes the rubber, but I assure you that is not the case.) At what point is he just the lesser guy?


So you ended 2013 thinking Q had a better year than Sale?


I don't think either one had a really great year. But sure, luck and randomness can skew the results in a 30 game sample. It's not going to do that over 200 starts. Otherwise you could post the stats from a bunch of all-time greats with career losing records who got unlucky or lacked "run support". Those guys do not exist. And an 11-14 season is NEVER good. How could it be? If you're that good, you have to pitch better than the guys you're facing more often than not. I believe that was an absolutely terrible Sox offense that season though. In many of those games the average difference may have been approaching two runs and occasionally even more. That isn't going to be the case over any pitcher's career.


But I don't want to wait for a pitchers career to be over to determine who is better. I can read between the lines and say that Chris Sale is better. WL leave a lot of false positives, give me the pitcher that has had 9 k/9 while walking less than 2 a game. I don't need to see their entire career WL to know that's an elite player. And if he does that with an 11-14 record, he pitched his ass for for a putrid offense. His run support that year was 3.19.

Wins are the outcome, give me the stats that describe how the pitcher performed.


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 27, 2016 3:00 pm 
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Juice's Lecture Notes wrote:
What do you mean "production"? Vasquez and Buehrle limited scoring and outs at similar clips throughout their respective careers. Javvy did it one way, Buehrle another. Buehrle's longevity certainly helps, as he was that good for about 400 more innings than Javvy.
You know exactly what I mean. Buehrle clearly had the better career. Why is that?

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PostPosted: Mon Jun 27, 2016 3:09 pm 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
Juice's Lecture Notes wrote:
What do you mean "production"? Vasquez and Buehrle limited scoring and outs at similar clips throughout their respective careers. Javvy did it one way, Buehrle another. Buehrle's longevity certainly helps, as he was that good for about 400 more innings than Javvy.
You know exactly what I mean. Buehrle clearly had the better career. Why is that?

because he won more games....duh

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PostPosted: Mon Jun 27, 2016 3:13 pm 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
Juice's Lecture Notes wrote:
What do you mean "production"? Vasquez and Buehrle limited scoring and outs at similar clips throughout their respective careers. Javvy did it one way, Buehrle another. Buehrle's longevity certainly helps, as he was that good for about 400 more innings than Javvy.
You know exactly what I mean.


No, I don't. I'll ask again: what do you mean by "production"? Pitching wins?


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 27, 2016 3:15 pm 
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TurdFerguson wrote:
I don't need to see their entire career WL to know that's an elite player. And if he does that with an 11-14 record, he pitched his ass for for a putrid offense. His run support that year was 3.19.


But you seem to be discounting that the "run support" is nothing more than runs allowed by another guy who you would, in most cases, suggest was not nearly as good as Sale.

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PostPosted: Mon Jun 27, 2016 3:15 pm 
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Walt Williams Neck wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
Juice's Lecture Notes wrote:
What do you mean "production"? Vasquez and Buehrle limited scoring and outs at similar clips throughout their respective careers. Javvy did it one way, Buehrle another. Buehrle's longevity certainly helps, as he was that good for about 400 more innings than Javvy.
You know exactly what I mean. Buehrle clearly had the better career. Why is that?

because he won more games....duh


Image

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PostPosted: Mon Jun 27, 2016 3:19 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Walt Williams Neck wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
Juice's Lecture Notes wrote:
What do you mean "production"? Vasquez and Buehrle limited scoring and outs at similar clips throughout their respective careers. Javvy did it one way, Buehrle another. Buehrle's longevity certainly helps, as he was that good for about 400 more innings than Javvy.
You know exactly what I mean. Buehrle clearly had the better career. Why is that?

because he won more games....duh


Image



on your attempt at a gif :(

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

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PostPosted: Mon Jun 27, 2016 3:20 pm 
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TurdFerguson wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
TurdFerguson wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
TurdFerguson wrote:
2013 was an interesting year for Sale and Quintana. Some how while giving up more runs, more walks and striking out fewer batter, Jose was better than sale. Thankfully he was more effective at coxing his own offense in scoring runs.

Code:
#   Name      W   L   GS   IP   K/9   BB/9   BABI   ERA   FIP   xFIP   WAR   RS/9
1   Chris Sa   11   14   30   214   9.49   1.93   .289   3.07   3.17   2.95   4.9   3.19
2   Jose Qu   9   7   33   200   7.38   2.52   .283   3.51   3.82   3.86   3.5   3.78


Who is asking a pitcher to "coax" anyone into scoring runs? If a guy is so good, he should be able to allow less runs than the lesser guys he faces most of the time, shouldn't he? (I know JLN is fantasizing that the Sox face Koufax every time Quintana toes the rubber, but I assure you that is not the case.) At what point is he just the lesser guy?


So you ended 2013 thinking Q had a better year than Sale?


I don't think either one had a really great year. But sure, luck and randomness can skew the results in a 30 game sample. It's not going to do that over 200 starts. Otherwise you could post the stats from a bunch of all-time greats with career losing records who got unlucky or lacked "run support". Those guys do not exist. And an 11-14 season is NEVER good. How could it be? If you're that good, you have to pitch better than the guys you're facing more often than not. I believe that was an absolutely terrible Sox offense that season though. In many of those games the average difference may have been approaching two runs and occasionally even more. That isn't going to be the case over any pitcher's career.


But I don't want to wait for a pitchers career to be over to determine who is better. I can read between the lines and say that Chris Sale is better. WL leave a lot of false positives, give me the pitcher that has had 9 k/9 while walking less than 2 a game. I don't need to see their entire career WL to know that's an elite player. And if he does that with an 11-14 record, he pitched his ass for for a putrid offense. His run support that year was 3.19.

Wins are the outcome, give me the stats that describe how the pitcher performed.


Why do you feel that the actual game context is completely immaterial?

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PostPosted: Mon Jun 27, 2016 3:20 pm 
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Walt Williams Neck wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Walt Williams Neck wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
Juice's Lecture Notes wrote:
What do you mean "production"? Vasquez and Buehrle limited scoring and outs at similar clips throughout their respective careers. Javvy did it one way, Buehrle another. Buehrle's longevity certainly helps, as he was that good for about 400 more innings than Javvy.
You know exactly what I mean. Buehrle clearly had the better career. Why is that?

because he won more games....duh


Image



on your attempt at a gif :(


Image

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PostPosted: Mon Jun 27, 2016 3:21 pm 
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Juice's Lecture Notes wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
Juice's Lecture Notes wrote:
What do you mean "production"? Vasquez and Buehrle limited scoring and outs at similar clips throughout their respective careers. Javvy did it one way, Buehrle another. Buehrle's longevity certainly helps, as he was that good for about 400 more innings than Javvy.
You know exactly what I mean.


No, I don't. I'll ask again: what do you mean by "production"? Pitching wins?
Fine, since you don't know what production means.

Who had the more successful career?

And I won't respond if you say "How do you define 'successful'?" like it is some sort of quantum physics level concept.

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PostPosted: Mon Jun 27, 2016 3:22 pm 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
Juice's Lecture Notes wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
Juice's Lecture Notes wrote:
What do you mean "production"? Vasquez and Buehrle limited scoring and outs at similar clips throughout their respective careers. Javvy did it one way, Buehrle another. Buehrle's longevity certainly helps, as he was that good for about 400 more innings than Javvy.
You know exactly what I mean.


No, I don't. I'll ask again: what do you mean by "production"? Pitching wins?
Fine, since you don't know what production means.

Who had the more successful career?

And I won't respond if you say "How do you define 'successful'?" like it is some sort of quantum physics level concept.


I think I already explained that it's very similar.

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PostPosted: Mon Jun 27, 2016 3:25 pm 
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leashyourkids wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
Juice's Lecture Notes wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
Juice's Lecture Notes wrote:
What do you mean "production"? Vasquez and Buehrle limited scoring and outs at similar clips throughout their respective careers. Javvy did it one way, Buehrle another. Buehrle's longevity certainly helps, as he was that good for about 400 more innings than Javvy.
You know exactly what I mean.


No, I don't. I'll ask again: what do you mean by "production"? Pitching wins?
Fine, since you don't know what production means.

Who had the more successful career?

And I won't respond if you say "How do you define 'successful'?" like it is some sort of quantum physics level concept.


I think I already explained that it's very similar.
See JLN, even leashyourkids knows what it means.

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PostPosted: Mon Jun 27, 2016 3:26 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
TurdFerguson wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
TurdFerguson wrote:
2013 was an interesting year for Sale and Quintana. Some how while giving up more runs, more walks and striking out fewer batter, Jose was better than sale. Thankfully he was more effective at coxing his own offense in scoring runs.

Code:
#   Name      W   L   GS   IP   K/9   BB/9   BABI   ERA   FIP   xFIP   WAR   RS/9
1   Chris Sa   11   14   30   214   9.49   1.93   .289   3.07   3.17   2.95   4.9   3.19
2   Jose Qu   9   7   33   200   7.38   2.52   .283   3.51   3.82   3.86   3.5   3.78


Who is asking a pitcher to "coax" anyone into scoring runs? If a guy is so good, he should be able to allow less runs than the lesser guys he faces most of the time, shouldn't he? (I know JLN is fantasizing that the Sox face Koufax every time Quintana toes the rubber, but I assure you that is not the case.) At what point is he just the lesser guy?


So you ended 2013 thinking Q had a better year than Sale?


I don't think either one had a really great year. But sure, luck and randomness can skew the results in a 30 game sample. It's not going to do that over 200 starts. Otherwise you could post the stats from a bunch of all-time greats with career losing records who got unlucky or lacked "run support". Those guys do not exist. And an 11-14 season is NEVER good. How could it be? If you're that good, you have to pitch better than the guys you're facing more often than not. I believe that was an absolutely terrible Sox offense that season though. In many of those games the average difference may have been approaching two runs and occasionally even more. That isn't going to be the case over any pitcher's career.


I think I have mentioned this before, but this is where you lose me. I don't disagree with your assertion that game context matters... in fact, I agree with it quite strongly. But if something can't be measured in a thirty-game sample, it's not great for predicting the future. Again, W/L is probably the best stat for measuring a career... but it's not a good predictor.

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PostPosted: Mon Jun 27, 2016 3:26 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Walt Williams Neck wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Walt Williams Neck wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
Juice's Lecture Notes wrote:
What do you mean "production"? Vasquez and Buehrle limited scoring and outs at similar clips throughout their respective careers. Javvy did it one way, Buehrle another. Buehrle's longevity certainly helps, as he was that good for about 400 more innings than Javvy.
You know exactly what I mean. Buehrle clearly had the better career. Why is that?

because he won more games....duh


Image



on your attempt at a gif :(


Image

:lol:

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 27, 2016 3:26 pm 
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I dont care at all if overrated Chris Sale wins a meaningless Cy Young award for a go-nowhere Sox team. If they get back in the race sure, I'll enjoy personal awards. But I dont watch the Sox to see Chris Sale blow games against division rivals or serve up HR's to Junior Lake, I want to see them win. Bragging about the historic nature of players on teams who dont win shit is Cubs fan behavior that I will no longer abide.


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 27, 2016 3:28 pm 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
See JLN, even leashyourkids knows what it means.

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PostPosted: Mon Jun 27, 2016 3:28 pm 
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America wrote:
I dont care at all if overrated Chris Sale wins a meaningless Cy Young award for a go-nowhere Sox team. If they get back in the race sure, I'll enjoy personal awards. But I dont watch the Sox to see Chris Sale blow games against division rivals or serve up HR's to Junior Lake, I want to see them win. Bragging about the historic nature of players on teams who dont win shit is Cubs fan behavior that I will no longer abide.


:lol:

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PostPosted: Mon Jun 27, 2016 3:29 pm 
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ltgyourkids wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
See JLN, even leashyourkids knows what it means.

Ok.

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PostPosted: Mon Jun 27, 2016 3:30 pm 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
ltgyourkids wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
See JLN, even leashyourkids knows what it means.

Ok.


He kind of shut you down earlier, so I'm employing his methods.

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PostPosted: Mon Jun 27, 2016 3:38 pm 
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Here is how the Sox do when applying a harmonic mean to their run totals so far this season:

Image

As you can see, they are much more likely to score less than 3 runs than their arithmetic mean would have you believe, and the distribution is skewed positively, with four teams (27% of the AL) above one standard deviation up from the mean, but only 2 teams (13% of the AL) below one standard deviation below the mean.


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 27, 2016 3:40 pm 
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leashyourkids wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
ltgyourkids wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
See JLN, even leashyourkids knows what it means.

Ok.


He kind of shut you down earlier, so I'm employing his methods.


Huh?


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 27, 2016 3:41 pm 
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Juice's Lecture Notes wrote:
leashyourkids wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
ltgyourkids wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
See JLN, even leashyourkids knows what it means.

Ok.


He kind of shut you down earlier, so I'm employing his methods.


Huh?


LTG, not you.

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PostPosted: Mon Jun 27, 2016 3:41 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Walt Williams Neck wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Walt Williams Neck wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
Juice's Lecture Notes wrote:
What do you mean "production"? Vasquez and Buehrle limited scoring and outs at similar clips throughout their respective careers. Javvy did it one way, Buehrle another. Buehrle's longevity certainly helps, as he was that good for about 400 more innings than Javvy.
You know exactly what I mean. Buehrle clearly had the better career. Why is that?

because he won more games....duh


Image



on your attempt at a gif :(


Image

:lol:

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PostPosted: Mon Jun 27, 2016 3:50 pm 
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Juice's Lecture Notes wrote:
Here is how the Sox do when applying a harmonic mean to their run totals so far this season:

Image

As you can see, they are much more likely to score less than 3 runs than their arithmetic mean would have you believe, and the distribution is skewed positively, with four teams (27% of the AL) above one standard deviation up from the mean, but only 2 teams (13% of the AL) below one standard deviation below the mean.



NERD!!!!!!!!!!!!

Hey everyone, get a load of this nerd!

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PostPosted: Mon Jun 27, 2016 3:59 pm 
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Juice's Lecture Notes wrote:
Here is how the Sox do when applying a harmonic mean to their run totals so far this season:

Image

As you can see, they are much more likely to score less than 3 runs than their arithmetic mean would have you believe, and the distribution is skewed positively, with four teams (27% of the AL) above one standard deviation up from the mean, but only 2 teams (13% of the AL) below one standard deviation below the mean.

Ok if this has what baseball has become to you morons fine! I'll watch the Cubs vs. The Reds and say Jake Amrita has been one of the best pitchers over the last season and a half in baseball. So I'll watch the game drinking some beer and having some popcorn....will Turd will have his slide rule and abacus. I think I'll have more fun than Turd

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PostPosted: Mon Jun 27, 2016 4:06 pm 
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Juice's Lecture Notes wrote:
Here is how the Sox do when applying a harmonic mean to their run totals so far this season:

Image

As you can see, they are much more likely to score less than 3 runs than their arithmetic mean would have you believe, and the distribution is skewed positively, with four teams (27% of the AL) above one standard deviation up from the mean, but only 2 teams (13% of the AL) below one standard deviation below the mean.

Image

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PostPosted: Mon Jun 27, 2016 4:15 pm 
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Actually, the Harmonic Mean of the entire league is 3.04, I've updated the table:

Image

The harmonic mean is much closer to the "true" mean runs per game of each team, meaning they are more likely to perform in-line with the numbers in the chart over their arithmetic means listed on Baseball Reference, so the absolute spread of the data set (one whole run or more) isn't really relevant.


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 27, 2016 4:21 pm 
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Also, without the Sox in the dataset (a "rest of the league" stat, if you will), the league-average runs per game via the harmonic mean is 3.06. So, the White Sox are actually liable to give you less than 3 runs in any given game, and the RotL, more.


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 27, 2016 4:22 pm 
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Walt Williams Neck wrote:
Juice's Lecture Notes wrote:
Here is how the Sox do when applying a harmonic mean to their run totals so far this season:

Image

As you can see, they are much more likely to score less than 3 runs than their arithmetic mean would have you believe, and the distribution is skewed positively, with four teams (27% of the AL) above one standard deviation up from the mean, but only 2 teams (13% of the AL) below one standard deviation below the mean.

Ok if this has what baseball has become to you morons fine! I'll watch the Cubs vs. The Reds and say Jake Amrita has been one of the best pitchers over the last season and a half in baseball. So I'll watch the game drinking some beer and having some popcorn....will Turd will have his slide rule and abacus. I think I'll have more fun than Turd


Jesus Christ, what is this, 2007? Ken Tremendous has hung em up for a good long while.


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 27, 2016 4:30 pm 
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Juice's Lecture Notes wrote:
Walt Williams Neck wrote:
Juice's Lecture Notes wrote:
Here is how the Sox do when applying a harmonic mean to their run totals so far this season:

Image

As you can see, they are much more likely to score less than 3 runs than their arithmetic mean would have you believe, and the distribution is skewed positively, with four teams (27% of the AL) above one standard deviation up from the mean, but only 2 teams (13% of the AL) below one standard deviation below the mean.

Ok if this has what baseball has become to you morons fine! I'll watch the Cubs vs. The Reds and say Jake Amrita has been one of the best pitchers over the last season and a half in baseball. So I'll watch the game drinking some beer and having some popcorn....will Turd will have his slide rule and abacus. I think I'll have more fun than Turd


Jesus Christ, what is this, 2007? Ken Tremendous has hung em up for a good long while.



No one gives a fuck .....I hope you can figure that out

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.


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