And it was basically luck that did that?

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

Actually, about 42% of a deviation in observed BABIP is "luck" (this probably changes with sample size, but that goes up, not down), so his observed BABIP differential was .300. That means .126 of that observed differential was due to luck, or, applied to the sample, 2 or 3 hits prevented by luck alone, likely more with the small sample size.

Where did I ever say this?

You claim that Buerhle was not a better pitcher than Vazquez, but Buehrle was unquestionably the most decorated pitcher. How did that happen?

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

A whole cavalcade of biasing helped a good bit, I think. From Vazquez not being assigned enough arbitrary "wins" to be considered for All-Star voting despite playing at a comparable caliber, to playing in Canada, to "5th inning Javy". On Buehrle's side, he was a damn good pitcher in a major market, and being a fan favorite granted him one All-Star appearance that should have gone to his teammate Vazquez (2006, Javy had a "winning" record better than Buerhle's, gave up fewer runs, struck out more and gave up fewer HR's going into the ASB). There's probably a bunch of other things, but they are likely indistinguishable from background noise at this point.

Buehrle certainly earned those Gold Glove's, but again, how much value is a GG-level pitcher giving a team over a CY-level pitcher? Both had one Cy Young voting appearance, Buehrle 5th and Javy 4th.

So you actually just mean that the perception of him is wrong?

Taking anything with "voting" out, didn't Buerhle have a more successful career?

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

We're getting back to needing to define "success" again. Do you mean on-field accomplishments, limit your view to traditional counting stats (Wins, Innings, etc.)? If that's the narrow definition you need to carve out bias and better performing pitchers, then yes, Buehrle had more arbitrary harbingers of success.

Since you don't seem to know many words I'll ask it a different way.

If you had two pitchers coming out of college, and could choose them to have the exact same career as either Mark Buehrle, or Javy Vazquez, who do you choose and why?

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

Assuming a neutral home ballpark, Vazquez. His ability to generate outs via the strikeout will insulate him from defense and park effects more so than a pitcher deriving outs (and thus value) from balls put in play. He has 3 pitches that he can throw to get outs, and his fastball-changeup velocity differential, along with his curveball, can generate more swing-and-miss strikes both inside and outside the zone. He misses bats, strikes out hitters, induces swings outside the zone all better than Buehrle, and isn't as reliant on things outside of his control for value.

Buehrle is better at limiting fly balls, which I would like in a bandbox, but Vazquez showed he could ramp up his strikeout efforts and absorb a little bad luck with less real estate in the outfield, as well as induce more pop-ups rather than out-and-out fly balls (which could explain the "good luck" HR/FB rate Vazquez enjoyed in Chicago). Javy misses more bats in the zone than Buehrle, so he is comfortable throwing more first pitch strikes and working from ahead, instead of needing to go deeper into counts, where a lot of power-hitting tends to happen (more fastballs late in counts is my guess); though both Buehrle and Vazquez were better than league average at avoiding "deep" counts.

This is where you lose me JLN.

Vazquez has all that going for him and couldn't be more than an average pitcher over his career.

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Yup.

Ultimately, it is showing that JLN thinks that the "numbers" that are chosen to be "good" are infallible.

They clearly aren't. No one in their right mind would choose to have the career of Javy Vazquez over Mark Buerhle. Then again, JLN didn't technically answer that question and instead played the hypothetical Javy Vazquez route.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

Pray tell, what numbers, fallible and infallible alike, make Buehrle the better pitcher in your mind? To my knowledge, nobody has made a case besides hinting at pitching wins and no-hitters when not making totally arbitrary statements like "he was just better".

It's like porn.

You know it when you see it.

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You'll have to define "numbers" for me.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

There has to be some filler in generating some of these numbers. For example, I have my doubts that Adam Eaton is the 7th best player in baseball. Or that the stats show Buerhle was not better than Vazquez.

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Why are only 14 percent of black CPS 11th-graders proficient in English?

Who was more successful, Buehrle or Vazquez, and why? Who is better, Buehrle or Vazquez, and why? Whose league-entering form would you take for your franchise, Buehrle or Vazquez, and why?

Buerhle is my answer for all three.

He was a #1 pitcher for longer, had more success in terms of things like wins and era. He wasn't given up on by a bunch of teams. He was on a World Series winner. Top 75 in career war for pitchers at baseball reference.

See, now that is how you answer a question.

But hey, a guy who performed much worse had more strikeouts, so maybe it would be cool to have his career instead.

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

Bravo.

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FanGraphs has Javy 71st in career WAR, and Buehrle 78th. Vazquez is also 97th in career FIP since 1980 among pitchers with at least 1500 innings, Buehrle is 135th. In K's, BB's, and HR's per 9 with the same parameters, Javy is 26th, 50th, and 212th, with Buehrle 187th, 15th, and 148th.

He only performed "much worse" in dubious statistical categories that have been repeatedly shown to be at faulty at best in their attempts to describe value accurately.

But OK, you like Mark Buehrle because he has more pitching wins, and because DeWayne Wise made The Catch that one time. Meh.

Don't be mad my made up stat source says something different than your made up stat source.

So why did javy bounce around the league so much if he was as great as you are saying? You'd think a pitcher better than Buehrle would have been a prize possession rather than a guy that most teams couldn't wait to move on from.

Also let me point out I never mentioned no hitters or perfect games yet you bring it up. So add no hitters and perfect games to my list too!

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You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

Juice you're wrong...go away ...far away

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

Who is mad? It has to do with how they weight different aspects of pitching. I don't know which is "better", and I'm not really sure about the differences, but I'll look into them.



Well, he was traded by the Expos for prospects in the last year of his deal after a season in which he was 6th in the NL in WAR, 10th in ERA, 4th in WHIP, 4th in K's per 9, and 2nd in Innings Pitched...so I'm going to guess the Expos didn't think they could sign him, and instead of the supplemental round pick they decided to get prospects from the Yankees?

Then he was traded by the team who acquired him a year earlier, the Yankees, after a poor relief performance in the playoffs and a very poor 2nd half after a hot start, the Diomandbacks in exchange for Randy M-F-ing Johnson.

The D-Backs traded him after he requested, because for some reason he said it was hard for his family from Puerto Rico to visit him in Arizona. He was 8th in the NL in strikeouts, 6th in complete games, 4th in K/BB, in his lone season with the D-Backs, and all-told he was much better than his 2nd half in NY, but still had yet to return to form.

I don't know why the Sox traded him, but they received Flowers and Lillibridge from the Braves, and Javy went on in 2009 to finish 4th in CY voting.

New York acquired him again for the last year of his contract, at which point he was a free agent, signed with the Marlins on a one-year deal, and ended up retiring after that.

None of his movements seem performance-based, rather short-sighted moves by jumpy teams perhaps not fully understanding regression towards the mean.

Oh look, it's Mr. Doesn't Give a Fuck, here in this thread still, and currently with 11,399 fucks given on record. What's on your mind?

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

Shit like this is why nobody uses strictly "numbers" to place value on a player.

When you do, you can somehow convince yourself Javy Vazquez was better than Mark Buehrle.

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Wow, Sox subdivision can't wait to pile on a guy with a different opinion. Sad.

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

Javy Vasquez had better stuff. Threw harder, had more pitches, better movement, but of the two if I had to pick the guy that I believed would best give me the best chance to win, it would no doubt be Buerhle.

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Not that surprising that a congregation of Sox fans turns out to be 85% meatball scared of numbers and math.

And rather than questioning the value of WAR you blindly accept it?

You know how Moneyball mocked the "hidebound scouts" who were so convinced that their wrong ideas were right? This is the new version of it.

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Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don