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PostPosted: Tue Jun 28, 2016 7:35 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Juice's Lecture Notes wrote:
FanGraphs has Javy 71st in career WAR, and Buehrle 78th.


And rather than questioning the value of WAR you blindly accept it?

You know how Moneyball mocked the "hidebound scouts" who were so convinced that their wrong ideas were right? This is the new version of it.


Me wrote:
Who is mad? It has to do with how they weight different aspects of pitching. I don't know which is "better", and I'm not really sure about the differences, but I'll look into them.


:roll: Go stroke.


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PostPosted: Tue Jun 28, 2016 7:37 pm 
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Juice's Lecture Notes wrote:
Well, he was traded by the Expos for prospects in the last year of his deal after a season in which he was 6th in the NL in WAR, 10th in ERA, 4th in WHIP, 4th in K's per 9, and 2nd in Innings Pitched...so I'm going to guess the Expos didn't think they could sign him, and instead of the supplemental round pick they decided to get prospects from the Yankees?


I remember that. All the "experts" were using the powerful predictive stats to predict he would win 22-24 games with Yankee "run support". It didn't quite work out that way. His W/L record turned out to be the better predictor as he would pretty much maintain a similar percentage throughout his career regardless of who was "supporting" him.

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 28, 2016 7:56 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Juice's Lecture Notes wrote:
Well, he was traded by the Expos for prospects in the last year of his deal after a season in which he was 6th in the NL in WAR, 10th in ERA, 4th in WHIP, 4th in K's per 9, and 2nd in Innings Pitched...so I'm going to guess the Expos didn't think they could sign him, and instead of the supplemental round pick they decided to get prospects from the Yankees?


I remember that. All the "experts" were using the powerful predictive stats to predict he would win 22-24 games with Yankee "run support". It didn't quite work out that way. His W/L record turned out to be the better predictor as he would pretty much maintain a similar percentage throughout his career regardless of who was "supporting" him.


Except his winning percentage with the Yankees was the second-best of his career, and nearly 100 points higher than his career average at that point. After a lackluster season from the guy they spent to go get, and Steinbrenner at 72, they turned him around and went after 41-year old Randy Johnson, who promptly posted two of his poorest strikeout and home run rate seasons since he became a full-time starter. He finished with an ERA+ of 100 in New York, only 7 points better than Javy. They traded away the 13 WAR Javy would put up over the remainder of his extension for 7.3 WAR from Randy Johnson because Vazquez had one poor season.


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PostPosted: Tue Jun 28, 2016 8:07 pm 
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WAR does not take into account that a guy simply cannot pitch under pressure. That is why Javy flourished outside of NY, and with bad to medicore White Sox teams. That is why Phil Hughes has pitched well for the Twins.

Taking Javy over Buehrle is both wrong and insane. Tell your statistics to shut up.

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 28, 2016 9:07 pm 
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Bump. Having a pretty good year! I think he might take it this season.

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 28, 2016 9:33 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Those other statistics are better for what though? We're not GMs or player agents. And the "best" pitcher should have meaningful results. He's not pitching in a vacuum. He's pitching in a baseball game. And if the other starter in most of the games he pitches actually does better than he does, I have a hard time calling that guy the "best".


But you are defining better as "the team winning the game (while the starter is eligible for the win)" and not "the pitcher pitching better." I'm defining better as the one who is allowing fewer baserunners on to reach base, fewer home runs, fewer walks, more strikeouts, etc. Lets say my team makes two errors and allows two runs, while I have zero earned runs against me and I lose 2-1 (I hit a solo HR as an awesome NL pitcher for my team.) I pitch a complete game and the other team has the starter in for 5 innings and then mix and matches out of the bullpen to finish it off. Their starter gets the win even though he gave up a run, I didn't give up any runs and I get a loss. I had 9 IPs with 0 ERs, 11 Ks, 2 hits and 3 BBs. He had 5 IP, 6 hits, 3 Ks, 2BBs.

Obviously this doesn't happen every game, but the other statistics have so much more meaning on the value of a pitcher than who gets the win and the loss. Yes, the overall goal is to win games, and the pitcher is a very big part of it, but not so much that boiling things down to that single statistic gives meaning to the quality of work from the pitcher.

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 28, 2016 9:37 pm 
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I'm just glad to hear that Fulmer made the Futures All Star game and now apparently has it working.

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 28, 2016 9:41 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
But that's the thing. These arguments are never made about anyone but a guy who someone is trying to suggest is "elite" in spite of evidence to the contrary in the form of more than half the starters they face pitching better than they do. These arguments are never made about marginal swingmen like Curt Young or Bob Walk. That's why it's disingenuous to bring them into the conversation. People are arguing that Jose Quintana is elite.

Quintana is slightly above average but not someone I would classify as elite. Potentially he could be but he would need to up his game over the next several years.

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 28, 2016 9:44 pm 
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Haven't been paying much attention to the AL. Is anyone other than Danny Salazar even in this race with Sale? My trolling aside, I really like Chris Sale and want to see him win a Cy Young.

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 28, 2016 9:46 pm 
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Regular Reader wrote:
I'm just glad to hear that Fulmer made the Futures All Star game and now apparently has it working.

A starry-eyed Sock fan hyping up a prospect? Say it ain't so, Joe.

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 28, 2016 9:50 pm 
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It's not going to work this group...man they've been dealt a lot of luck with Anderson, Collins and Fisher (who was a steal). Even Fulmer is figuring it out. There's a chance for this team if they just cut bait on a few guys and reap the massive rewards. Goddamnit please just give up already.


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PostPosted: Tue Jun 28, 2016 9:52 pm 
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Mr. Reason wrote:
Regular Reader wrote:
I'm just glad to hear that Fulmer made the Futures All Star game and now apparently has it working.

A starry-eyed Sock fan hyping up a prospect? Say it ain't so, Joe.


Not hype, just rational, clear eyed hope.

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 28, 2016 9:59 pm 
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Regular Reader wrote:
Mr. Reason wrote:
Regular Reader wrote:
I'm just glad to hear that Fulmer made the Futures All Star game and now apparently has it working.

A starry-eyed Sock fan hyping up a prospect? Say it ain't so, Joe.


Not hype, just rational, clear eyed hope.

'Hope' leads to the gutter, pal. And that ain't gonna 'change'.

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 28, 2016 10:06 pm 
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Crystal Lake Hoffy wrote:
Haven't been paying much attention to the AL. Is anyone other than Danny Salazar even in this race with Sale? My trolling aside, I really like Chris Sale and want to see him win a Cy Young.

Knuckleballer Steven Wright (Boston) is putting up comprable numbers but throws a knuckleball.

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 28, 2016 10:08 pm 
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newper wrote:
Crystal Lake Hoffy wrote:
Haven't been paying much attention to the AL. Is anyone other than Danny Salazar even in this race with Sale? My trolling aside, I really like Chris Sale and want to see him win a Cy Young.

Knuckleballer Steven Wright (Boston) is putting up comprable numbers but throws a knuckleball.

A knuckleballer throwing a knuckleball? Who knew.

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 28, 2016 10:10 pm 
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Mr. Reason wrote:
Regular Reader wrote:
Mr. Reason wrote:
Regular Reader wrote:
I'm just glad to hear that Fulmer made the Futures All Star game and now apparently has it working.

A starry-eyed Sock fan hyping up a prospect? Say it ain't so, Joe.


Not hype, just rational, clear eyed hope.

'Hope' leads to the gutter, pal. And that ain't gonna 'change'.


Ahem...

2005.

:lol:

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 28, 2016 10:10 pm 
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Crystal Lake Hoffy wrote:
Haven't been paying much attention to the AL. Is anyone other than Danny Salazar even in this race with Sale? My trolling aside, I really like Chris Sale and want to see him win a Cy Young.

AL pitching is pretty piss poor. The old guard in Verlander/Price/Hernandez is aging and no one has stepped up in their place.

If you want to see guys twirl a game it's in the NL.


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PostPosted: Tue Jun 28, 2016 10:12 pm 
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Mr. Reason wrote:
newper wrote:
Crystal Lake Hoffy wrote:
Haven't been paying much attention to the AL. Is anyone other than Danny Salazar even in this race with Sale? My trolling aside, I really like Chris Sale and want to see him win a Cy Young.

Knuckleballer Steven Wright (Boston) is putting up comprable numbers but throws a knuckleball.

A knuckleballer throwing a knuckleball? Who knew.


The knuckle-ball is equivalent to food stamps. You can't be a real major league pitcher? Just lob the fucking thing in there and you can be just like everyone else that pitches for a living.

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 28, 2016 10:13 pm 
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Crystal Lake Hoffy wrote:
Mr. Reason wrote:
newper wrote:
Crystal Lake Hoffy wrote:
Haven't been paying much attention to the AL. Is anyone other than Danny Salazar even in this race with Sale? My trolling aside, I really like Chris Sale and want to see him win a Cy Young.

Knuckleballer Steven Wright (Boston) is putting up comprable numbers but throws a knuckleball.

A knuckleballer throwing a knuckleball? Who knew.


The knuckle-ball is equivalent to food stamps. You can't be a real major league pitcher? Just lob the fucking thing in there and you can be just like everyone else that pitches for a living.

That makes perfect sense...

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 28, 2016 10:14 pm 
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Regular Reader wrote:
Mr. Reason wrote:
Regular Reader wrote:
I'm just glad to hear that Fulmer made the Futures All Star game and now apparently has it working.

A starry-eyed Sock fan hyping up a prospect? Say it ain't so, Joe.


Not hype, just rational, clear eyed hope.

Nothing gives more hope than a minor league development program run by Buddy Bell.


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PostPosted: Tue Jun 28, 2016 10:17 pm 
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Kirkwood wrote:
Regular Reader wrote:
Mr. Reason wrote:
Regular Reader wrote:
I'm just glad to hear that Fulmer made the Futures All Star game and now apparently has it working.

A starry-eyed Sock fan hyping up a prospect? Say it ain't so, Joe.


Not hype, just rational, clear eyed hope.

Nothing gives more hope than a minor league development program run by Buddy Bell.


He won't be down there long enough for Bell's program to fuck him up.

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 28, 2016 10:18 pm 
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Regular Reader wrote:
Kirkwood wrote:
Regular Reader wrote:
Mr. Reason wrote:
Regular Reader wrote:
I'm just glad to hear that Fulmer made the Futures All Star game and now apparently has it working.

A starry-eyed Sock fan hyping up a prospect? Say it ain't so, Joe.


Not hype, just rational, clear eyed hope.

Nothing gives more hope than a minor league development program run by Buddy Bell.


He won't be down there long enough for Bell's program to fuck him up.

Ah right, good call, wait until Don Cooper gets his hands on him. Then he'll be cookin' with gas.


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PostPosted: Tue Jun 28, 2016 10:19 pm 
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Regular Reader wrote:
Mr. Reason wrote:
Regular Reader wrote:
Mr. Reason wrote:
Regular Reader wrote:
I'm just glad to hear that Fulmer made the Futures All Star game and now apparently has it working.

A starry-eyed Sock fan hyping up a prospect? Say it ain't so, Joe.


Not hype, just rational, clear eyed hope.

'Hope' leads to the gutter, pal. And that ain't gonna 'change'.


Ahem...

2005.

:lol:

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 28, 2016 10:24 pm 
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Mr. Reason wrote:
Regular Reader wrote:
Mr. Reason wrote:
Regular Reader wrote:
Mr. Reason wrote:
Regular Reader wrote:
I'm just glad to hear that Fulmer made the Futures All Star game and now apparently has it working.

A starry-eyed Sock fan hyping up a prospect? Say it ain't so, Joe.


Not hype, just rational, clear eyed hope.

'Hope' leads to the gutter, pal. And that ain't gonna 'change'.


Ahem...

2005.

:lol:

Regular Readers wife wrote:
Your sauce is getting weaker by the day.


Cheap shot. :lol:

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 28, 2016 10:36 pm 
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newper wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Those other statistics are better for what though? We're not GMs or player agents. And the "best" pitcher should have meaningful results. He's not pitching in a vacuum. He's pitching in a baseball game. And if the other starter in most of the games he pitches actually does better than he does, I have a hard time calling that guy the "best".


But you are defining better as "the team winning the game (while the starter is eligible for the win)" and not "the pitcher pitching better." I'm defining better as the one who is allowing fewer baserunners on to reach base, fewer home runs, fewer walks, more strikeouts, etc. Lets say my team makes two errors and allows two runs, while I have zero earned runs against me and I lose 2-1 (I hit a solo HR as an awesome NL pitcher for my team.) I pitch a complete game and the other team has the starter in for 5 innings and then mix and matches out of the bullpen to finish it off. Their starter gets the win even though he gave up a run, I didn't give up any runs and I get a loss. I had 9 IPs with 0 ERs, 11 Ks, 2 hits and 3 BBs. He had 5 IP, 6 hits, 3 Ks, 2BBs.

Obviously this doesn't happen every game, but the other statistics have so much more meaning on the value of a pitcher than who gets the win and the loss. Yes, the overall goal is to win games, and the pitcher is a very big part of it, but not so much that boiling things down to that single statistic gives meaning to the quality of work from the pitcher.


There is a difference between a pitcher's wins and losses and the team's. W/L is a specific stat with specific criteria. Of course it's related to the team's wins and losses, but it's not the same thing. That's why it's silly when the modern fan insistently whines, "Wins are a team stat!"

Let's go back to gold for a minute. You seem to be suggesting that a guy who finishes fifteenth in a tournament with 278 did better than a guy who won a different tournament with a 283. The context doesn't just matter. It's critical. The numbers are meaningless without the context.

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 28, 2016 10:40 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
newper wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Those other statistics are better for what though? We're not GMs or player agents. And the "best" pitcher should have meaningful results. He's not pitching in a vacuum. He's pitching in a baseball game. And if the other starter in most of the games he pitches actually does better than he does, I have a hard time calling that guy the "best".


But you are defining better as "the team winning the game (while the starter is eligible for the win)" and not "the pitcher pitching better." I'm defining better as the one who is allowing fewer baserunners on to reach base, fewer home runs, fewer walks, more strikeouts, etc. Lets say my team makes two errors and allows two runs, while I have zero earned runs against me and I lose 2-1 (I hit a solo HR as an awesome NL pitcher for my team.) I pitch a complete game and the other team has the starter in for 5 innings and then mix and matches out of the bullpen to finish it off. Their starter gets the win even though he gave up a run, I didn't give up any runs and I get a loss. I had 9 IPs with 0 ERs, 11 Ks, 2 hits and 3 BBs. He had 5 IP, 6 hits, 3 Ks, 2BBs.

Obviously this doesn't happen every game, but the other statistics have so much more meaning on the value of a pitcher than who gets the win and the loss. Yes, the overall goal is to win games, and the pitcher is a very big part of it, but not so much that boiling things down to that single statistic gives meaning to the quality of work from the pitcher.


There is a difference between a pitcher's wins and losses and the team's. W/L is a specific stat with specific criteria. Of course it's related to the team's wins and losses, but it's not the same thing. That's why it's silly when the modern fan insistently whines, "Wins are a team stat!"

Let's go back to gold for a minute. You seem to be suggesting that a guy who finishes fifteenth in a tournament with 278 did better than a guy who won a different tournament with a 283. The context doesn't just matter. It's critical. The numbers are meaningless without the context.

I'm going to assume you meant golf not the precious metal.

You win the tournament you are playing.

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 28, 2016 10:42 pm 
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Crystal Lake Hoffy wrote:
The knuckle-ball is equivalent to food stamps. You can't be a real major league pitcher? Just lob the fucking thing in there and you can be just like everyone else that pitches for a living.


Image

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 28, 2016 11:23 pm 
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Mr. Reason wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Let's go back to gold for a minute. You seem to be suggesting that a guy who finishes fifteenth in a tournament with 278 did better than a guy who won a different tournament with a 283. The context doesn't just matter. It's critical. The numbers are meaningless without the context.

I'm going to assume you meant golf not the precious metal.

You win the tournament you are playing.

I'm going to give you guys a bit of yes and no here. One issue with golf is that it is an individual sport with a hundred guys all starting the event and only one wins. So for a single tournament, the guy who wins is obviously the best. And the course difficulty is different, so you can't easily compare between tournaments by using a raw number like strokes. (In baseball, they account for this by using stats like ERA+ and WHIP+ which take venue difficulty and talent level of the year into account.)

I think it is much more apples to apples to compare a pitcher to a QB. Both have a great deal to do with the outcome, but both also have other teammates that influence the game. It seems like you are saying that you would prefer a QB on a team that won a game 14-10 vs a QB that lost a game 28-35. Even though the first QB may have only had 200 yards passing and 0TDs and 2 INTS while the second guy had 386 yards passing, and 3 TDs and 1 INT. I realize we are just making up stats here, but where do you land on the similarity in the importance of W/L for QB vs W/L for a starting pitcher?

As far as context goes, if I have a guy who finishes 3rd each year in ERA for 10 years behind guys who ony pop up for 1st or 2nd in ERA for 2 or 3 years in that time frame, then yeah, I want the guy who finished 3rd. I don't think there's any inherent value in finishing 1st in any stat on any given year/event. You're looking for trends that place him in the top over multiple years/events.

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 28, 2016 11:45 pm 
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Crystal Lake Hoffy wrote:
The knuckle-ball is equivalent to food stamps. You can't be a real major league pitcher? Just lob the fucking thing in there and you can be just like everyone else that pitches for a living.

what

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PostPosted: Wed Jun 29, 2016 6:55 am 
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Juice's Lecture Notes wrote:
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Wow, Sox subdivision can't wait to pile on a guy with a different opinion. Sad.


Not that surprising that a congregation of Sox fans turns out to be 85% meatball scared of numbers and math. :roll:
I'm not scared of numbers and math. I provided numbers that showed that Buehrle was far superior. You just so happen to discount the WAR number that shows up for the first entry in google.

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