At this point most of what Epstoyer laid out has come to fruitationwith one BIG exception.

Taking "STUD" college bats in the first round has worked.

Taking multiple lottery ticket college arms in rounds 2-10 has FAILED.

The multiple lottery tickets have yet to cash for even a buck.

Not one drafted pitcher has yet to throw a single pitch in MLB.

_________________

Who will be the next Zambrano?

Hell,at this point,I'll settle for Bill Bonham.

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favrefan said:"Chris Coghlan isn't gonna pay your rent, Jimmy."

Yeah, it's interesting in that Theo was clearly on the leading edge in recognizing that power bats were going to be at a premium in this modern deadball era. Overall I don't think outfielders have ever been weaker in my entire life watching baseball. But the problem comes in when those premium hitters face premium pitchers. The hitters are most often going to come up on the short end of those match-ups.

That becomes an issue when you're running up against teams like the Nats or Mets that have 3 or even 4 guys that might be considered aces. The problem for those pitching-centric teams is that pitchers are much more likely to suffer injuries that will drastically alter their performance, if not completely end their season, than the hitters.

My friend who is a HUGE Cub fan cornered Theo at one of those Winter Warm-Ups and argued with him about the value of a true ace pitcher citing that guys like Kershaw and Bumgarner and Sale were drafted by their teams and that it's much easier to gather hitters on the open market than truly elite pitchers. Theo spent a bunch of time explaining the overall numbers and downside risk of taking hitters in the first round.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Matthew, Tulsi, and Don

The flaw in the plan is that Theo's full of shit.

Cubs active, 25 man roster is among the least home-grown in the majors:

Arrieta Orioles
Cahill A's
Edwards Jr Rangers
Grimm Rangers
Hammel Rays
Hendricks Rangers
Lackey Angels
Lester Red Sox (Mike Port GM)
Patton Royals
Rondon Indians
Strop Rockies
Warren Yankees
Wood Reds
Contreras Cubs -pre Theo 2009 undrafted FA
Montero Diamondbacks
Baez Cubs 2011 (pre-theo)
Bryant CUBS!/THEO! 2nd overall and it worked out! OMG.
La Stella Braves
Candelario Cubs/2010 pre-theo
Russell A's (Hammel Rays/Samardzija (Shark's a pre Theo Cubs pick))
Zobrist Astros
Almora Cubs! Theo! 1st round! 6th overall! 269/300/703!
Heyward Braves
Szczur Cubs 2010 pre-Theo

Cubs home-grown players on their current 25 man drafted by Theo:
=================================================
Kris Bryant (Yeah! A 2nd overall draft pick worked out! No one could've predicted this!)
Almora (6th overall with a .703 OPS and a tendency to run-into and knock out of games the only other Theo draft pick on the roster)

White Sox home-grown players on their current 25 man:
===========================================
Beck
Gonzalez
Jones
Sale
Abreu
Anderson
Saladino
SanchezC
Coats

SF Giants home-grown players on their current 25 man:
============================================
Bumgarner
Law
Romo
Brown
Posey
Belt
Crawford
Gillaspie
Parker
Williamson

As far as those 2nd round arms Theo's picked:
=====================================================

Duane Underwood 0-5 4.91 ERA 1.65 WHIP in double A ball (2012 draft pick and still struggling in AA)

Rob Zastrynzyn 4-2 4.83 ERA 1.31 WHIP in AAA Iowa (2013)

Stinnet 14-10 record 4.24 ERA with 1.330 WHIP in 3 seasons of single A ball... (2014)

This hasn't been update since February, and it's 40 man. But I'd guess the actual draft-contributed WAR for the Cubs this season would be even lower than projected back in February:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-the- ... ere-built/

So he's basically just like Jerry Angelo in his belief of drafting "floor" vs. "ceiling" guys.

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There are only two examples of infinity: The universe and human stupidity and I'm not sure about the universe.

You guys don't have to work so hard these days.

The Cubs pretty much suck of late.

Save it for when you need it.

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You know me like that.

To be fair, I think Theo gets credit for guys he traded for. And Rizzo should certainly be considered as this management group's "guy".

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Matthew, Tulsi, and Don

Arrieta, too, nobody wanted him.

_________________
You know me like that.

[quote="Hussra"]The flaw in the plan is that Theo's full of shit.

Cubs active, 25 man roster is among the least home-grown in the majors:

Arrieta Orioles
Cahill A's
Edwards Jr Rangers
Grimm Rangers
Hammel Rays
Hendricks Rangers
Lackey Angels
Lester Red Sox (Mike Port GM)
Patton Royals
Rondon Indians
Strop Rockies
Warren Yankees
Wood Reds
Contreras Cubs -pre Theo 2009 undrafted FA
Montero Diamondbacks
Baez Cubs 2011 (pre-theo)
Bryant CUBS!/THEO! 2nd overall and it worked out! OMG.
La Stella Braves
Candelario Cubs/2010 pre-theo
Russell A's (Hammel Rays/Samardzija (Shark's a pre Theo Cubs pick))
Zobrist Astros
Almora Cubs! Theo! 1st round! 6th overall! 269/300/703!
Heyward Braves
Szczur Cubs 2010 pre-Theo

Cubs home-grown players on their current 25 man drafted by Theo:
=================================================
Kris Bryant (Yeah! A 2nd overall draft pick worked out! No one could've predicted this!)
Almora (6th overall with a .703 OPS and a tendency to run-into and knock out of games the only other Theo draft pick on the roster)

White Sox home-grown players on their current 25 man:
===========================================
Beck
Gonzalez
Jones
Sale
Abreu
Anderson
Saladino
SanchezC
Coats

[quote="Hussra"]


White Sox home-grown players on their current 25 man:
===========================================
Beck 2012 pre Hahn
Gonzalez Miguel was an Oriole
Jones 2007 pre Hahn
Sale 2010 pre Hahn
Abreu
Anderson
Saladino 2010 pre Hahn
SanchezC 2009 pre Hahn
Coats

So since getting the job Hahn has signed or drafted 3 guys

_________________

and he did draft him when he was in Boston.

_________________

Hanh has 1 more of his guys on the current White Sox 25 man roster than walk-on-water Theo has of his guys from that same time period on his active 25 man. Or has Hahn had 1 less year? Hahn is owning poor Theo. But Theo drafted Kris Bryant! 2nd overall is a dicey proposition.

2 (Number of World Series Theo won with Manny-Ortiz)

0 (Number of World Series Theo won without Manny-Ortiz)

Didnt Theo trade Garza too? That should count as well.

_________________

The idea that you were going to have this entire team full of homegrown players was a fantasy. That's why losing on purpose is silly and thinking that it was necessary is incorrect.

The thing is though, that there is something to be said for a cohesive group of players that all feel like they're in something together. As a Sox fan I saw that in 2000 where a young bunch jelled. Frank had a giant season, but I know he felt like an outcast on that team. Every player will tell you he wants the GM to improve the team right up until it's his position they decide to upgrade. There's no doubt that Zobrist is a better player than Castro, but I'm not sure that the Cubs are a better team with Zobrist replacing Castro. Do you think the Cubs are better right now than they were at the end of last season? You're getting guys to buy into a "Way" of doing things and then you replace them with an outsider the first chance you get and that whole "Way" thing doesn't play anymore. That happened in Washington with Papelbon and the refusal to pay Desmond.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Matthew, Tulsi, and Don

Fascinating.

_________________
You know me like that.

You are right to a point but comparing a team guy like Zo to short fuse Papelbon is not fair.

I am not sure Castro was a WAY guy. Look at how Baez has changed over the last three years. Castro never changed like that. Baez seems to have found his WAY and getting back to Zo don't yuo think he has mentored Baez on playing all over.

You are correct how the 2000 Sox grew up together and those guys were the core of the team for the next half decade. I think most of these young guys whether drafted/traded or signed have grown up together and they may have the same kind of run as the 2000 Sox did.

_________________

Yes he did and that was probably a win for Theo.

Traded by the Chicago Cubs to the Texas Rangers for Carl Edwards, Justin Grimm,Mike Olt and Neil Ramirez

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I thought it said a lot about Castro that undisputed team leader Rizzo used Castro's walk-up music and tapped his heart in his first at-bat of the season. Castro and Rizzo went through the shit together. That said, I realize you can't let the players make the roster. That's how you end up with Walter Davis instead of Scottie Pippen.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Matthew, Tulsi, and Don

Like rolling foward with the Cubs 2014 main-stay starting IF, Rizzo/Barney/Castro/Valbuena.

Bryant's a better defensive and certainly better offensive 3B than Valbuena.

But Valbuena's better than Baez (at this point in their careers--and the Cubs are all about winning this or next season, at the latest).

If you keep Valbuena, that puts Bryant in the OF full-time.

Zobrist is about the same as Barney with the glove (suprisingly) and insanely better at the plate.

Russell and Castro? Russell's much better defensively. And, so far, offensively than Castro.

Maybe if Castro weren't constantly under the about to be headed out of town threat he'd have played better his last season in Chicago.

Other than Bryant, the differences between the starting infield for the Cubs 2014 and this season in terms of how they are playing for other teams THIS SEASON aren't that great. And Bryant's likely destined for the OF long-term anyhow.
player / OPS
==========================
Rizzo: .969
Barney: .755 / Zobrist .859
Baez: .767 / Valbuena .841
Castro: .686 / .736 Russell

that's relegating Bryant to the OF.

Current Cubs infield is better defensively and offensively. Thanks to Zobrist having a career year and Castro losing his way offensively.

Maybe Castro et al play better if the organization stayed committed to them?

Still need a full-time 2B for Barney. Barney's a good utility player. Zobrist is better. So can't really fault Maddon for wanting to bring in one of his former Rays guy. Esp after Zobrist helped the Royals World Series run last season.

I suppose if you keep Castro and Russell covers 2nd. Valbuena 3B/Castro SS (if he doesn't fall off at the plate so much)/Russell 2B/Rizzo.

And then under control Baez becomes trade-bait as part of a package for an arm.

The knock on Barney was always that they didn't think he was an everyday player. Not sure how they could determine that. But he seems to be thriving in a utility role in Toronto. What's up with players (Bautista, Donaldson and now, to a much lesser extent, Barney) going to Toronto later in their careers and finding their offensive groove.

I question what planet Hussra originates from some days.

It's hard to craft dumber posts than Frank but this is one.

Since you throw shade on Theo's roster for players selected before his hiring do we ignore all the players on the Red Sox he acquired? The ones who contributed to the post-Theo World Series? Or the three who are top 20 position players in fWAR acquired under Theo's watch.

If you could clarify the rules for ignoring player acquisitions it'll help in this discussion.

So you wanna give Theo credit for the Red Sox 2013 World Series win, 2 years after he left for the Cubs??

Dat's crazy tawk.

Sorry, too many decisions go into building a roster from year to year. Red Sox had 2 full off-seasons without Theo as GM. Heck, the Red Sox FO post-Theo had to deal with the mess he left behind, like Carl Jason Crawford Heyward's deal.

I don't want to do anything. I'm curious as to what's the rule.


But Theo deserves no credit for building the Cubs roster. All the pieces were already in place when he was hired.

no one said that. at least not me.

jeez. go back and re-read. you'll see I stated my Theo thesis right at the top:


I was making the point that far from building a roster from homegrown players--like the Giants or Cardinals--Theo's Cubs are moslty free agent signings and trade acquisitions.

Cubs current 25 man roster might be the least homegrown in the majors.

that's all i was saying. not that complicated a point to make. count roster spots and compare.
Giants, Cardinals lead the majors in home-grown players on their rosters.
Cubs are at the bottom, with Atlanta, Oakland and San Diego.

You moved goalposts.

There was "home-grown players" for the Giants/White Sox versus Cubs-Theo only.

So Kenny/Hahn and Sabean/Evans transactions are combined PLUS they've been working for their franchises for 10-15 years. Their combined "home-grown players" are being compared to a guy who's had 4 drafts (not including this year).

Poor comparison.

Again, Cubs roster is among the bottom 4 least home-grown in MLB--that INCLUDES pre-Theo picks on the roster.

But why would Theo wanna take blame for the awful draft picks of the GM's before him.

Cubs roster, with pre-Theo picks, is way low on homegrown talent. Theo just happens to have contributed surprisingly few draft picks to the current 25 man, Bryant and Almaro. And when you calculate aggregate WAR contibrution? Cubs home-grown players on the current active roster--all years/GM's whatever--are bottom of the league. Giants get about 27 WAR out of their home-grown players on their active roster. Cubs? about 7 WAR.

You're comparing players in their prime to rookies and 2nd year players.

I guess the Cubs are still a couple years early.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Matthew, Tulsi, and Don