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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Sun Jul 31, 2016 2:59 pm 
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Most mock drafts and experts predicted him to be a mid to late 1st round pick.

There is no way you can look back and be critical of the Sox for taking Rodon over Schwarber. Just about every team in the league would have done the same thing.

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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Sun Jul 31, 2016 3:01 pm 
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Am I missing something? Schwarber isn't even playing. And we seem to be drawing a lot of conclusions about him from 250 big league at-bats.

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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Sun Jul 31, 2016 3:04 pm 
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RFDC wrote:
Most mock drafts and experts predicted him to be a mid to late 1st round pick.

There is no way you can look back and be critical of the Sox for taking Rodon over Schwarber. Just about every team in the league would have done the same thing.


Agreed. He's shown flashes too but he's inconsistent.

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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Sun Jul 31, 2016 3:05 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Am I missing something? Schwarber isn't even playing. And we seem to be drawing a lot of conclusions about him from 250 big league at-bats.


It's not your fault.

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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Sun Jul 31, 2016 3:07 pm 
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You're not missing anything, JORR.

Check his stats from the Cardinal to the Mets playoff series. Adjustments were made by the pitchers.

This whole penciling him in 30-40 HRs is ridiculous.


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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Sun Jul 31, 2016 3:09 pm 
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Peoria Matt wrote:
You're not missing anything, JORR.

Check his stats from the Cardinal to the Mets playoff series. Adjustments were made by the pitchers.

This whole penciling him in 30-40 HRs is ridiculous.


Why is it?

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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Sun Jul 31, 2016 3:16 pm 
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Peoria Matt wrote:
You're not missing anything, JORR.

Check his stats from the Cardinal to the Mets playoff series. Adjustments were made by the pitchers.

This whole penciling him in 30-40 HRs is ridiculous.


As silly as it is to criticize the Sox for taking Rodon, it is just as silly to say that one time in the playoffs is going to determine who Schwarber is going to be or not going to be.

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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Sun Jul 31, 2016 3:18 pm 
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RFDC wrote:
Peoria Matt wrote:
You're not missing anything, JORR.

Check his stats from the Cardinal to the Mets playoff series. Adjustments were made by the pitchers.

This whole penciling him in 30-40 HRs is ridiculous.


As silly as it is to criticize the Sox for taking Rodon, it is just as silly to say that one time in the playoffs is going to determine who Schwarber is going to be or not going to be.


He was great in the playoffs.

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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Sun Jul 31, 2016 3:48 pm 
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RFDC wrote:
Most mock drafts and experts predicted him to be a mid to late 1st round pick.

There is no way you can look back and be critical of the Sox for taking Rodon over Schwarber. Just about every team in the league would have done the same thing.


Just because a bunch of other GM's would have passed on Schwarber that high up doesn't mean the GM's that DID shouldn't be roundly mocked and criticized for it, just as every GM that passed on Mike Trout to draft the likes of Jared Mitchell should be criticized for not identifying and acquiring the better MLB talent.


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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Sun Jul 31, 2016 4:30 pm 
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I firmly believe theo grabs Rodon at three. A large part of the appeal of Kyle was him signing as an underslot at four. There was a sizable gap between 3 and 4.

Theo has a stated philosophy of taking top college bats with high picks, but there are always exception. For example be selected Almora at 6.


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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Sun Jul 31, 2016 4:33 pm 
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TurdFerguson wrote:
I firmly believe theo grabs Rodon at three. A large part of the appeal of Kyle was him signing as an underslot at four. There was a sizable gap between 3 and 4.

Theo has a stated philosophy of taking top college bats with high picks, but there are always exception. For example be selected Almora at 6.

Supposedly, Schwarber was 2 on their board behind Aiken.

So hard to say if he would have taken Rodon there. It is definitely possible, but it also goes against what his history has been.

But there is still no doubt that Rodon at 3 was an easy pick for the Sox, and they should not be criticized for taking him there.

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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Sun Jul 31, 2016 5:05 pm 
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RFDC wrote:
TurdFerguson wrote:
I firmly believe theo grabs Rodon at three. A large part of the appeal of Kyle was him signing as an underslot at four. There was a sizable gap between 3 and 4.

Theo has a stated philosophy of taking top college bats with high picks, but there are always exception. For example be selected Almora at 6.

Supposedly, Schwarber was 2 on their board behind Aiken.

So hard to say if he would have taken Rodon there. It is definitely possible, but it also goes against what his history has been.

But there is still no doubt that Rodon at 3 was an easy pick for the Sox, and they should not be criticized for taking him there.


Should the Sox be criticized for selecting Jared Mitchell over the available Mike Trout? After all, Mitchell was a "mid-to-late 1st" talent on many expert mock drafts, and Trout was slated by MANY as below him. So the Sox should get a similar pass for passing on a generational talent, no?

I just want to know where teams get credit for identifying MLB aptitude and talent, and a pass for simply going with who was "slotted" for them at their pick.


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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Sun Jul 31, 2016 5:06 pm 
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Rodon was rushed to fit into the 3-year window. As with Anderson and now Fulmer.


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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Sun Jul 31, 2016 5:08 pm 
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Juice's Lecture Notes wrote:
RFDC wrote:
TurdFerguson wrote:
I firmly believe theo grabs Rodon at three. A large part of the appeal of Kyle was him signing as an underslot at four. There was a sizable gap between 3 and 4.

Theo has a stated philosophy of taking top college bats with high picks, but there are always exception. For example be selected Almora at 6.

Supposedly, Schwarber was 2 on their board behind Aiken.

So hard to say if he would have taken Rodon there. It is definitely possible, but it also goes against what his history has been.

But there is still no doubt that Rodon at 3 was an easy pick for the Sox, and they should not be criticized for taking him there.


Should the Sox be criticized for selecting Jared Mitchell over the available Mike Trout? After all, Mitchell was a "mid-to-late 1st" talent on many expert mock drafts, and Trout was slated by MANY as below him. So the Sox should get a similar pass for passing on a generational talent, no?

I just want to know where teams get credit for identifying MLB aptitude and talent, and a pass for simply going with who was "slotted" for them at their pick.


I don't think you are making a fair comparison. Mitchell was not considered a lock. Rodon was widely considered as a top player, for a long time he was considered to be the top pick in the draft.

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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Sun Jul 31, 2016 5:27 pm 
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RFDC wrote:
\
I don't think you are making a fair comparison. Mitchell was not considered a lock. Rodon was widely considered as a top player, for a long time he was considered to be the top pick in the draft.


I don't think it's fair to give a pass to an organization for drafting what is "widely considered a top player" if that player indeed turns out to suck, or be worse than a similar talent available, because the job of the organization is to draft the best talent available that will best translate to MLB production. Rodon's command issues his Junior season were largely ignored (we see now that they probably shouldn't have been) by scouts, whereas Schwarber has mashed at every professional level in which he has appeared, and in that draft was considered one of, if not THE best, college bat in the draft. He was far from a reach, even at 4.


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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Sun Jul 31, 2016 5:46 pm 
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Juice's Lecture Notes wrote:
RFDC wrote:
\
I don't think you are making a fair comparison. Mitchell was not considered a lock. Rodon was widely considered as a top player, for a long time he was considered to be the top pick in the draft.


I don't think it's fair to give a pass to an organization for drafting what is "widely considered a top player" if that player indeed turns out to suck, or be worse than a similar talent available, because the job of the organization is to draft the best talent available that will best translate to MLB production. Rodon's command issues his Junior season were largely ignored (we see now that they probably shouldn't have been) by scouts, whereas Schwarber has mashed at every professional level in which he has appeared, and in that draft was considered one of, if not THE best, college bat in the draft. He was far from a reach, even at 4.


Schwarber obviously agreed he was a reach at 4. He agreed to a slot value of a player in the teens. I know he had no leverage but Bryant got full slot plus some. If schwarber was not a reach at 4 why is he leaving 40% of his contract on the table.


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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Sun Jul 31, 2016 5:58 pm 
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TurdFerguson wrote:
Juice's Lecture Notes wrote:
RFDC wrote:
\
I don't think you are making a fair comparison. Mitchell was not considered a lock. Rodon was widely considered as a top player, for a long time he was considered to be the top pick in the draft.


I don't think it's fair to give a pass to an organization for drafting what is "widely considered a top player" if that player indeed turns out to suck, or be worse than a similar talent available, because the job of the organization is to draft the best talent available that will best translate to MLB production. Rodon's command issues his Junior season were largely ignored (we see now that they probably shouldn't have been) by scouts, whereas Schwarber has mashed at every professional level in which he has appeared, and in that draft was considered one of, if not THE best, college bat in the draft. He was far from a reach, even at 4.


Schwarber obviously agreed he was a reach at 4. He agreed to a slot value of a player in the teens. I know he had no leverage but Bryant got full slot plus some. If schwarber was not a reach at 4 why is he leaving 40% of his contract on the table.


Bad representation? Wanting to help the organization out to ensure signing other high-school pitchers (who at the time were thought to require over-spending to sign) without triggering draft pool overages? Because he could get more bonus money immediately?


Last edited by Juice's Lecture Notes on Sun Jul 31, 2016 5:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Sun Jul 31, 2016 5:58 pm 
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Juice's Lecture Notes wrote:
RFDC wrote:
\
I don't think you are making a fair comparison. Mitchell was not considered a lock. Rodon was widely considered as a top player, for a long time he was considered to be the top pick in the draft.


I don't think it's fair to give a pass to an organization for drafting what is "widely considered a top player" if that player indeed turns out to suck, or be worse than a similar talent available, because the job of the organization is to draft the best talent available that will best translate to MLB production. Rodon's command issues his Junior season were largely ignored (we see now that they probably shouldn't have been) by scouts, whereas Schwarber has mashed at every professional level in which he has appeared, and in that draft was considered one of, if not THE best, college bat in the draft. He was far from a reach, even at 4.


Easy to sit back now and make all these claims, but the fact remains Schwarber was considered a reach at 4 by lots of people. He was considered one of the top college bats available that would be expected to go in the mid first round. And Turd brings up a great point about his signing for under slot value as well.

The Sox made the right choice at that time. I have no problem criticizing the Sox when needed, but their pick of Rodon in that draft is not one of those times.

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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Sun Jul 31, 2016 6:02 pm 
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rodon really fucked it today.


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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Sun Jul 31, 2016 6:03 pm 
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Nas wrote:
RFDC wrote:
Peoria Matt wrote:
You're not missing anything, JORR.

Check his stats from the Cardinal to the Mets playoff series. Adjustments were made by the pitchers.

This whole penciling him in 30-40 HRs is ridiculous.


As silly as it is to criticize the Sox for taking Rodon, it is just as silly to say that one time in the playoffs is going to determine who Schwarber is going to be or not going to be.


He was great in the playoffs.


5-10 v Cards
2-14 v Mets

That's not great.


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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Sun Jul 31, 2016 6:04 pm 
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Peoria Matt wrote:
Nas wrote:
RFDC wrote:
Peoria Matt wrote:
You're not missing anything, JORR.

Check his stats from the Cardinal to the Mets playoff series. Adjustments were made by the pitchers.

This whole penciling him in 30-40 HRs is ridiculous.


As silly as it is to criticize the Sox for taking Rodon, it is just as silly to say that one time in the playoffs is going to determine who Schwarber is going to be or not going to be.


He was great in the playoffs.


5-10 v Cards
2-14 v Mets

That's not great.


.291 for a rookie in the playoffs is pretty good.

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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Sun Jul 31, 2016 6:10 pm 
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RFDC wrote:
And Turd brings up a great point about his signing for under slot value as well.


The Astros picked 1st overall 3 straight years with the current draft slot spending rules...and not once did they spend their full allotment. Did they reach for all those players, too? I mean, why would any of those players sign for a dollar less than their draft slot allotment if they weren't a reach?

Schwarber was the best of 1 of 4 categories of MLB draft prospect (college pitcher/hitter, high school pitcher/hitter), so while he was ranked wherever he was overall, in reality he was the best available in a certain class of prospect that every GM considers when they make their selection (KW has an extra one, called "athlete" but that's why KW sucks). Indeed, MANY studies breaking down draft trends and player value delineate prospects along those 4 categories instead of overall prospect ranking. I'll give the Sox credit for going "college" that high, but I think they should be criticized for not recognizing a college bat--widely regarded as the best available--that was seemingly engineered not only for their league, but for their home ballpark as well.


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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Sun Jul 31, 2016 6:14 pm 
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Kills against the Cards. Mets make adjustments.

So it's ok to say he will hit 30-40 hr's based on the same small sample size that I say he won't?


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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Sun Jul 31, 2016 6:15 pm 
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Shutup.

Of the MANY things you can get on the Sox for, drafting Rodon is not one of them.

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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Sun Jul 31, 2016 6:15 pm 
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RFDC wrote:
Peoria Matt wrote:
Nas wrote:
RFDC wrote:
Peoria Matt wrote:
You're not missing anything, JORR.

Check his stats from the Cardinal to the Mets playoff series. Adjustments were made by the pitchers.

This whole penciling him in 30-40 HRs is ridiculous.


As silly as it is to criticize the Sox for taking Rodon, it is just as silly to say that one time in the playoffs is going to determine who Schwarber is going to be or not going to be.


He was great in the playoffs.


5-10 v Cards
2-14 v Mets

That's not great.


.291 for a rookie in the playoffs is pretty good.


Don't forget about the home runs

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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Sun Jul 31, 2016 6:16 pm 
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Frank Coztansa wrote:
Shutup.

Of the MANY things you can get on the Sox for, drafting Rodon is not one of them.


Passing on the top college bat--a power-hitting, on-base machine--for the top college pitcher with command issues his Junior year? Criticized just fine.


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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Sun Jul 31, 2016 6:23 pm 
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I get what JLN is saying.

I don't excuse my team's front office because man-E GMs passed on a guy.

I want my GM (and manager) to be the one who doesn't hide behind conventional wisdom.

I think Rodon can be saved with a new pitching coach.

Kill Coop.

Problem solved.

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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Sun Jul 31, 2016 6:46 pm 
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Per Bruce Levine the year Bryant was drafted Theo/Jed supposedly had Mark Appel #1 on the board. Bryant "fell" to the Cubs just like Rodon "fell" to the Sox.

I don't believe him but that's what he's reported.


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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Sun Jul 31, 2016 9:00 pm 
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Peoria Matt wrote:
Kills against the Cards. Mets make adjustments.

So it's ok to say he will hit 30-40 hr's based on the same small sample size that I say he won't?

However you want to slice it, .291 in your rookie year during the playoffs is pretty good.

That is no guarantee of 30-40 HRs or anything, but he was pretty good in the playoffs. To say anything else is just wrong.

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 Post subject: Re: Sox game thread
PostPosted: Sun Jul 31, 2016 10:52 pm 
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RFDC wrote:
Peoria Matt wrote:
You're not missing anything, JORR.

Check his stats from the Cardinal to the Mets playoff series. Adjustments were made by the pitchers.

This whole penciling him in 30-40 HRs is ridiculous.


As silly as it is to criticize the Sox for taking Rodon, it is just as silly to say that one time in the playoffs is going to determine who Schwarber is going to be or not going to be.

He may be Ron Kittle.

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