That Trump drops out or is forced out of this?

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

7:2 against

5:1 if you take only one of the options

If the RNC tells him to piss off and he still runs under some other banner, does that still qualify for 'forced out'?

_________________
Power is always in the hands of the masses of men. What oppresses the masses is their own ignorance, their own short-sighted selfishness.
- Henry George

Pretty telling that Trump Henchmen are already beating the polls/election is rigged drum even 100 days out.



Trump is going to refuse to participate in the debates and then say the whole thing is rigged because he can't stand being a loser. SAD!

_________________

They can't force him out.

I can see him leaving though while claiming he was forced out.

_________________

We shall see.

Funny thing is that if he had a modicum of discretion and focus he could steam roll into November.

Walt has a better chance of being funnier than Don.

_________________
"He is a loathsome, offensive brute
--yet I can't look away."

If he were just a loud mouth like Chris Christie I wouldn't vote for him but would secretly hope he won to piss off the establishment and shake things up. Unfortunately he's just about everything I'm against.

_________________
Be well

GO BEARS!!!

It's a "crows circling" false narrative, like Eugene Robinson at the W.P. and traitor, Joe Scarborough, questioning Trump's mental health.

Liberal media following the old U.S.S.R playbook to discredit political enemies, always citing unnamed "sources."

Fear mongering at it's worst, hoping scared Republicans bite and jump ship.

I think they can force him off their ticket ... seems unlikely, but possible.

“the Republican National Committee is hereby authorized and empowered to fill any and all vacancies which may occur by reason of death, declination, or otherwise of the Republican candidate for President of the United States or the Republican candidate for Vice President of the United States.”

Seems like they could employ 'otherwise' as a catch-all.

As far as getting the new person's name on all the state's ballots, that would probably be the most significant hurdle of them all, particularly with the limited time available to do so.

The effect(s) of the Electoral College give me nausea to even think about how many ways that could go.

_________________
Power is always in the hands of the masses of men. What oppresses the masses is their own ignorance, their own short-sighted selfishness.
- Henry George

He's not going to win. There will be an unfortunate accident in October (Suprise!) that'll leave Pence to run w/ his choice of running mate Paul Ryan.

You really think they'd JFK/RFK him?

_________________
Power is always in the hands of the masses of men. What oppresses the masses is their own ignorance, their own short-sighted selfishness.
- Henry George

It wouldn't surprise me. Would it really surprise you?... I wouldn't expect it before the election, because you don't know if Trump will win.

_________________

Not supporting any of this talk, but let me get my tinfoil hat out and put it on.....if you could somehow place the blame for such an act on a Muslim extremist that would be beneficial for not only getting Trump off of the ticket, but also for further rallying their base about just how dangerous said Muslim extremists are here on U.S. soil.....

I bet Reince and Ryan would consider that a win/win scenario

_________________

I'm going to opt to hang on to what you might suggest is my naïveté and say that's too much for me to buy in to.

_________________
Power is always in the hands of the masses of men. What oppresses the masses is their own ignorance, their own short-sighted selfishness.
- Henry George

In a sense, yes. However, I doubt he'll get a day dedicated to him on Decades.

Could Donald Trump Drop Out? Some Bettors Seem to Think So





Justin Wolfers @JustinWolfers AUG. 4, 2016





There’s a small but meaningful chance that Donald Trump will quit the race before Election Day, according to betting markets. Credit Mark Makela for The New York Times

The latest guessing game is whether Donald Trump will drop out of the presidential race before Election Day. Although his campaign has denied that this is a possibility, ABC News reports that senior Republican officials are taking the idea seriously enough that they are exploring how to replace him if he drops out.


So, what are the odds he quits?

One way to determine this is to look at the latest odds in political prediction markets. It’s not that any bettor knows what Mr. Trump will do. Rather, markets are useful because people putting their money where their mouth is are more likely to give an honest assessment than party insiders positioning for political advantage. Moreover, aggregating the intuitions of many traders usually beats relying on any group of pundits.


At the British prediction market Betfair, traders currently assess the Republican Party as holding a 25.8 percent chance to win the presidency. But they give Mr. Trump only a 24.1 percent chance of becoming president.


The difference of 1.7 percent probably reflects the possibility that Mr. Trump drops out and that an alternative Republican wins the White House.


That tells us the chance that Mr. Trump drops out and the Republicans still win. What about the odds that Mr. Trump drops out, and his replacement loses to Hillary Clinton? To determine those odds, some extrapolation is required.







Interactive Feature: Who Will Be President?


As a starting point, let’s assume that Mr. Trump’s replacement is as likely to lose the election as Mr. Trump is. Note that the markets assess the chance that the Republicans lose — 74.2 percent — as being roughly three times greater than the chance of victory. As such, our assumption suggests that the chance that Mr. Trump’s replacement loses is also three times that of his chance of winning (which we already calculated to be 1.7 percent). It follows that the chance that someone other than Mr. Trump leads the Republican Party to a loss is then three times 1.7, or around 5 percent.


The odds that Mr. Trump drops out are simply the sum of the chance of an alternative Republican either winning (1.7 percent) or losing the election (5 percent), or 6.7 percent.

Perhaps instead, Mr. Trump will drop out only if or when the chances of a Republican winning have fallen sufficiently that continuing to campaign is not worth his time. If so, the previous calculation represents a lower bound on the odds Mr. Trump drops out. For instance, if Mr. Trump will drop out only when he has wrought sufficient damage on the Republican brand that his replacement has — to keep the math simple — a 17 percent chance to win the election, then similar calculations suggest that markets give Mr. Trump a 10 percent chance to drop out.


Perhaps the bias goes the other way, particularly if you believe — as I do — that the Republicans are more likely to win if Mr. Trump drops out. If so, my calculation represents an upper bound on the chance Mr. Trump quits. Perhaps an alternative Republican candidate has a 50 percent chance of winning, if given the chance. If so, then the chance that an alternative Republican runs and wins (which, if you recall, is 1.7 percent) is equal to the chance that an alternative runs and loses. By this view, the odds that Mr. Trump drops out are about 3.4 percent.


My own judgment is that it appears that the markets rate the chance that Mr. Trump drops out as being somewhere between 3 and 10 percent. The range of my estimate is wide partly because it is unclear precisely what assumption to use in extrapolating from market prices to the odds Mr. Trump drops out, and partly because these calculations are sensitive to small changes in betting odds.

How seriously should we take all of this?

The divergence between the odds of a Republican president and a Trump presidency is real. It is evident not only at Betfair, but also in the odds offered by an array of overseas internet bookmakers. No similar divergence appears between the odds of Mrs. Clinton assuming the presidency and the Democrats winning the election, suggesting that markets believe it’s a sure thing that she’ll be on the ballot.


Equally, it seems unlikely that these markets are privy to any sensitive inside information. Instead, they’re a useful aggregation of people’s best guesses. Some people call this the “conventional wisdom,” but I prefer to call it “collective wisdom,” to highlight that it is probably wiser than any of us individually. And that collective wisdom says that there’s a small though meaningful chance that Mr. Trump quits the race before Election Day.

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

Latest Election Analysis: The Election Is Already Over and Trump Will Win in a Landslide
http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/08 ... ign-rally/

Clinton drawing a few hundred to her events and a lot of those are plants. Trump draws thousands. Media trying to suppress the GOOPer vote as always. Panic City as tiny crowds for The Caller Bob indicate low turnout for her.

#BringBackOurBurglars

_________________
Obama's Legacy is Trump.
And dead cops.

"One guy lays the pipe, the other guy smokes it"--Clint Eastwood

They could buy Trump out.

$2 billion to go away

_________________

What are the rules for him keeping campaign cash? He's raking it in now (particularly small donations) and I can see him not spending much of it since he gets so much free coverage anyway. Plus, he's now getting some additional perks such as private briefings on security, which are routine for the final two candidates. I don't see him dropping out unless there is an enormous buyout offer made. Though as I mentioned in the other thread, I don't think he actually wants to win, as shown by his selection of economic advisors (who seems tailor made for the Dems to attack as being too male, too white, and too billionaire-y).

_________________

You are another shining example of what is wrong with the GOP.

_________________

Haven't the filing deadlines passed already in some states for getting candidates on the ballot?

It seems unlikely that Trump is going anywhere.

_________________

This is what I see happening, too.

_________________

Each candidate's strategy should have been to stay silent and let the opponent hang himself. Only one has followed that strategy

_________________
O judgment! Thou art fled to brutish beasts,
And men have lost their reason.

I changed my mind about this. Trump doesn't finish.

But neither does Hillary.

By what date?

Personally, I don't see why Trump would drop out. Clinton's support is soft. He can still win this.

_________________

Agreed. People think I'm nuts, but I genuinely don't think he wants to win.

_________________

I still think it's possible he is working for Clinton. I find it hard to believe he just started hating the Clintons out of the blue. Wall Street will get the president it wants. I somehow doubt Trump has much of a problem with that.

_________________
Freedom is our Strength.

it seems fairly apparent even by his own words he wasn't expecting to win the nomination. my amateur opinion.... this started as a PR stunt and mentally he's run out of gas and is done with the whole thing.

Trump's economic adviser team doesn't exactly represent "change". Didn't you once tout the greatness that was Linc Chafee at some point during this process?

_________________