For the first part of their history, up to the Paris attack last Fall, ISIS couldn't really be bothered to plan, prepare and carry out attacks outside the caliphate.
Graeme Wood noted: ISIS's leaders would tell people in other countries to get their asses to the caliphate and help
ISIS there; rather than engage in extra-caliphate activities.
After the Paris attack and ISIS's claim of responsibility, Wood works through an extensive
verbal floor routine to try to explain away ISIS attacking outside the caliphate:
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/ ... ots-213360Wood suggests, despite ISIS taking explicit responsibility, that Paris wasn't really ISIS's
operation; because ISIS's press release was rife with errors or wasn't in the usual font
or something. Finally Wood concedes that Paris was too well-planned, too military, too french-muslim,
too ISIS not to be ISIS.
So why's ISIS attacking outside the caliphate now?
One theory:
ISIS is losing territory and recruits; ISIS's people--trained, battled-experienced ISIS soliders--
are leaving the caliphate and carrying out these attacks outside the rubric of ISIS's overall
plan/strategy, an uncontrolled by ISIS terrorist-diaspora.
Another/other theories give ISIS more credit.
Yes, ISIS is losing territory and recruits and people aren't so willing to join up with or
even tolerate their presence these days. So how does ISIS carrying out an attack like Paris
address ISIS's recruitment and popularity issues? Wouldn't, say, entering and winning the
Euro song contest be a better way of getting attention, winning hearts and minds?
1. Advertising. Like when the NFL sends the Jaguars to Europe for a game. It reminds people the
Jaguars/ISIS exist and maybe some impressionable youngsters will see Blaine Gabbert
play QB and be motivated to go out and blow themselves up; or join ISIS.
2. More nuanced: ISIS needs more recruits from outside the caliphate, as they (Sunni) are a minority
in the caliphate regions. Where to get more muslim fighters who lift, can bench their weight and are willing to fite, irfl?
France has a lot of Muslims who fit the bill. Problem is most Muslims couldn't give a
voler baise at a rolling baguette about politics. How do you get people to care about politics, get mad and thus maybe consider
joining up with ISIS?
One way is to carry out a bunch of "Muslim" terror attacks in France. Non-Muslim French
get pissed off and start acting aggressively anti-Muslim. The two sides
se regarder en chiens de faïence. This
causes French Muslims who previously had a c'est la vie attitude toward politics to become
politicallly active and potentially ripe for ISIS recruitment.
3. Wolf at the door unites a divided house theory: As the caliphate loses territory, people
and popularity, getting the Great Satan (that's US) to come back to Iraq in large numbers
could help their recruitment both inside and outside the caliphate territories: "Look, the wolf is
at the door, we must fight the Great Satan, take this gun and join us."
4. France and the USA's stomach for extended, large-scale military excursions is weak, like Ukraine.
The current US-France coalition strategy of minimal coalition ground troops backed by air strikes
supporting local troops is working. It's hurting ISIS and it's not ruffling many or any
Pokeomon Goers feathers on American college campuses or in the 2nd Arrondissement.
If France and the USA go whole hog back into Iraq/Syria, the anti-war movements in both countries
ramp up, the citizens quickly become even more war weary and the coalition falls apart/departs.
At least that's one line of thinking. Might be true for France. Recall it was the French who
chose to
s'enfuir or
fuir from Vietnam before we got sucked into that quagmire. Figures Syria is another former French colony. Fucking French.
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