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i'd hate to see WWN in a bad mood. http://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/zatt/Travers_Stakes_2016_Odds_and_Analysis_123The Mid-Summer Derby was first run in 1864, and in all those years, few if any editions have come up more wide open than Travers Stakes 2016. Exaggerator will be favored off victories in the Santa Anita Derby, Preakness, and Haskell, but you only have to look as far back as two starts ago in the Belmont Stakes to see that he is far from invincible. There will be no shortage of prime competition for the son of Curlin, in fact, a full field of 14 starters will fill the starting gate. Below you will find my projected odds and analysis on the entire field, but before you get too worked up about how far down the list a favorite or two of yours is, keep in mind, I found it incredibly hard to find much between the top 11 horses. The Travers waters will run deep this year, so don’t be too surprised if any horse of many emerges victorious in the signature race at the hallowed grounds of Saratoga.
9) Gift Box (12-1) – As soon as I saw the talented son of Twirling Candy dominate a strong allowance field at Belmont Park in his comeback race this spring, I immediately thought of him as a Travers horse. Trained by top trainer, Chad Brown, I’m sure this has been his goal for a long time. Not rushed in the least, I believe his one race since, a second to stablemate Connect in the Alydar Stakes was merely a means to an end, with that end being August 27 at Saratoga. Connect got the better race set-up that afternoon, but the experience should be just what Gift Box needs to peak on Saturday. He has the tactical speed to find a good position early, no matter the pace, and the explosiveness to take over a race at the right time. To Upset the Travers
4) Governor Malibu (8-1) – Seemed primed for a big run at the Belmont Stakes winner’s trophy at the top of the lane, but the hands of fate were on not on his side that afternoon. Traffic issues were serious, and the New York-bred son of Malibu Moon could only manage a fourth-place finish in the final leg of the Triple Crown. Still, he adequately proved his ability to go ten furlongs or more in the Belmont, and now he comes into the Travers off a very nice prep in a paceless Jim Dandy. More pace in the Travers will suit him, and Clement should have him primed for another strong effort. Time for a Breakthrough?
8 ) Destin (6-1) – Just behind Governor Malibu in the Jim Dandy was Destin. His third-place finish in Saratoga’s top prep for the Travers was a very nice effort for his first race since a heartbreaking loss in the Belmont. He let Laoban off with too easy a lead that day, but as always the talented and tactical runner tried hard all the way to the wire. Assuming that was a prep, I would suspect to see an even better effort on Saturday. Look for him to sit right off the lead, as he did in the Belmont, and make his move heading into the far turn. This time, he may just make it to the wire first. Consistent as They Come
7) Exaggerator (7-2) – With all of his big wins, it’s hard not to call this one the one to beat. He is classy, he can handle ten furlongs, he should get pace to run at, and he already has a win over the Saratoga main track. On the other hand, each of last four stakes wins have come on an off track. Of course, he has run very good races on a dry track too, such as a second in the Kentucky Derby, but you have to wonder if the advantage he enjoys on a wet racing surface has been the difference maker in some of those trips to the winner’s circle. The forecast, as of now, looks like it will be fast on Travers day. I respect him and his strong rally in here, but as the favorite, he will not be one of my top plays. Going for a Championship
12) Creator (10-1) – Well, the Belmont winner did not do much running on Jim Dandy afternoon. Call it a workout if you will. Remember, his Kentucky Derby run, albeit troubled, did not look great either, but then he came right back to claim the Belmont Stakes. I would not at all be surprised if another reversal of form was on tap for him Saturday. If the pace is brisk, as it looks to be on paper, this multiple Grade 1 winner becomes a major threat to sweep New York’s two biggest races for three-year-olds. Beware the Belmont Winner
2) American Freedom (6-1) – He continues to impress in both the mornings and the afternoons for trainer Bob Baffert. So why is it that I am finding it a little hard to see him winning this? Perhaps it is because the only good horses he has beaten, came on a sloppy track at Monmouth, or maybe it is because he is one of several speed types who figure to have a tough time staying on the entire 1 ¼ miles of the Travers. Either way, I know he is a very good horse, but one that I just do not seeing winning this one. Talented, but Not His Spot
14) Gun Runner (8-1) – I could probably say many of the same things for Gun Runner that I just said about American Freedom, and that one was the better horse on Haskell day. While I have great respect for this one, I just do not see the ten-furlong Travers, with plenty of speed, being the right set up for the Louisiana Derby winner. Back at nine furlongs or less, I expect that there will be many more nice wins for the son of Candy Ride down the road. Not Best at 10 furlongs
10) Connect (8-1) – Make no mistake, this is a serious racehorse. I saw him in person at Belmont Park, and he has all the qualities of a Grade 1 type of horse. He also comes in off a nice win over the track, beating Gift Box. So why is he not higher on this list? First off, I think that speaks volumes on the overall depth of this race. Secondly, I am just willing to bet that this son of Curlin needs just a little more seasoning to win something like this over such a big field. Future is Bright
1) Arrogate (10-1) – The West Coast version of Connect. Clearly, he is a major talent, as evidenced by his domination of his recent conditions races. While his Hall of Fame trainer, Bob Baffert insists that he is born to run long, I fear that the combination of his first stakes attempt, large field, and the demands of the classic distance, will all lead to being a little more than he can handle this time. Like Connect, though, this is definitely one to watch for the future. Not Quite Yet
13) Laoban (12-1) – Hey, Eric Guillot did it again! This time with a maiden in the Grade 2 Jim Dandy. Last time he made a splash in that race, Moreno came back to run huge in the Travers. My guess is that Laoban will not find the same success. Last time, he got away with an easy lead on an easy pace. I just cannot see that happening in this field. He deserves respect off the last, but I think this will offer more pressure than he can fight off. Too Much Pace this Time
3) My Man Sam (20-1) – A Chad Brown runner with a strong late run, and a sneaky good prep, this low on my list? As I said, there are at least 11 legitimate horses in this race, and this one happens to be the eleventh. I’m not quite sure he fits on a class level, but there is a lot to like here, especially if this race features fast early fractions. He is older and more experienced than when he tried the Kentucky Derby. Do not Dismiss
5) Forever d’Oro (30-1) – He was thrown to the wolves two starts back in the Belmont Stakes, and finished last. He has since returned with a solid performance when third in the Alydar, so I am actually expecting him to improve off his Belmont experience. Still, to expect him to beat all of these good horses seems a little too ambitious. Should Improve off Belmont Last
11) Majesto (50-1) – My longshot pick for the Kentucky Derby never lifted a hoof that day. Nor did he do much running in his return race. He is from the same connections that shocked the Test recently, but still, he is hard to be confident about in here. Hard to Recommend
6) Anaximandros (50-1) -Well, he did pass some tired horses to finish fourth in the West Virginia Derby at odds of 52-1. Having said that, I would touch him this time at those same odds. Not Good Enough
Brian Zipse
Brian has been a passionate fan of horse racing since birth. Taken to the races at a very young age, he has been lucky enough to see all the greats in person from Secretariat, Forego, and Ruffian through Rachel Alexandra, Zenyatta, and American Pharoah.
Before coming to the Nation, Brian displayed his love for the sport through the development of his horse racing website, which quickly became one of the most popular blogs in the game.
As Editor of Horse Racing Nation, Brian authors a daily column as Zipse at the Track, or ZATT for short, and adds his editorial flare to the overall content of the website. Brian also consults for leading contest site Derby Wars, and is a Vox Populi committee member.
A graduate of DePaul University, Brian lives just outside of Louisville with his wife Candice and daughter Kendra. And let's not forget the COMMENTS SECTION: elhubbo • 7 hours ago
I watch a ton of racing But Anaximandros? How do they always throw one I've never heard of in there? I did miss the WV derby mind you. Now because I've made a production of it I'll have to play a $5 ex box ex-anax, the x-facta exacta.
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Brian Hayes • 7 hours ago
What's everyone's picks. I think Governor Malibu might win, also like both of Bafferts horses too, might just box the Super.
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Blueyedhusky Brian Hayes • 4 hours ago
I like American Freedom. Exaggerator and Creator are the class of the race. Destin and Gun Runner also have a class edge on the rest. Governor Malibu will get hurt by his post position. Arrogate or Connect could sneak in the Super.
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sczen50 • 8 hours ago
I still like Creator & Exxy... and Destin... still want to see what AF has in him yet. Not sure about the order yet. What's the weather report look like? lol Not sure about GM either.
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elhubbo • 8 hours ago
Dry track, no worries, Ex gon give it to ya!
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Brian Hayes elhubbo • 7 hours ago
If it was a slop track that would change everything and would put my $ on Ex definitely
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elhubbo Brian Hayes • 7 hours ago
I think way too much is made about his like for slop, Keith has built up that myth as well. Exaggerrator is a horse for all seasons I assure you.
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pointgiven23 elhubbo • 2 hours ago
I agree I don't think its the track that gets Exaggerator beat. As the favorite he's had a lot of highs and lows in his campaign, this makes his 8th start of the year. On his best, he's probably too good for everyone in here but the beauty of this field is there is so much intrigue & talent, its worth playing against him. There's also a slight possibility everyone plays against his love of the slop and makes him a playable favorite.
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sczen50 elhubbo • 8 hours ago
Wow! You read my mind...I just commented right when u did.. and I last asked what the Weather report might be. lol
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Blueyedhusky • 11 hours ago
No doubt American Freedom will go for the lead now, despite the blinkers off. Arrogate should also be forward-positioned. The rest of the speed is way out. Anyone from post 2 to 7 will get squeezed.
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BeastBob Blueyedhusky • 11 hours ago
PP3-7, I don't think those horses mind staying back off the pace. Governor Malibu will get a dream trip from the rail.
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Blueyedhusky BeastBob • 11 hours ago
Off the pace and shuffled back are not quite the same. Governor Malibu would have to pushed right off the start to avoid being being shuffled back, and that would not jive well with his running style. Maybe Exaggerator will overcome, but I think Governor Malibu is up against it.
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pointgiven23 Blueyedhusky • 2 hours ago
Agreed GM has had some bad inside trips of late, he looks again like he could get another
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Blueyedhusky • 11 hours ago
1. Arrogate 10-1 (Mike Smith)
2. American Freedom 6-1 (Rafael Bejarano) [blinkers off]
3. My Man Sam 20-1 (Manny Franco)
4. Governor Malibu 12-1 (Joel Rosario)
5. Forever d'Oro 30-1 (Luis Saez)
6. Anaximandros 50-1 (Leonel Reyes)
7. Exaggerator 3-1 (Kent Desormeaux)
8. Destin 10-1 (Javier Castellano)
9. Gift Box 12-1 (Junior Alvarado)
10. Connect 4-1 (John Velazquez)
11. Majesto 30-1 (Ricardo Santana, Jr.) [blinkers on]
12. Creator 15-1 (Irad Ortiz, Jr.)
13. Laoban 15-1 (Jose Ortiz)
14. Gun Runner 10-1 (Florent Geroux)
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BeastBob Blueyedhusky • 11 hours ago
Toss Gun Runner!
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Blueyedhusky BeastBob • 11 hours ago
Scratched?
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BeastBob Blueyedhusky • 11 hours ago
No. At PP14, Florent Geroux must purposely miss the break to get to the rail (Gun Runner's favorite spot), or take wide trip.
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Blueyedhusky BeastBob • 11 hours ago
Oh. I don't know. I think there will be a big squeeze at the break. He may end up only 4-wide going into the first turn.
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pointgiven23 Blueyedhusky • 2 hours ago
4 wide at the Spa is not where you want to be unless your sitting on much the best here. Baffert's colts are drawn well to get out and get position
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BeastBob • 12 hours ago
With the PP draws, Rafael Bejarano may pull a "Victor Espinoza", leaving the rail wide open for Arrogate to set the pace while he's sitting comfortably second with American Freedom. There is a huge cushion between #2 and the real speed at #8.
American Freedom > Arrogate > Governor Malibu > Exaggerator.
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pointgiven23 BeastBob • 2 hours ago
I like 3 of your 4 here
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ChessChamp BeastBob • 8 hours ago
Arrogate is not a pace/speed horse. If you watch his races and look at his internal splits, he's a bit slower in the first 1/2 - 3/4 mile than a horse like American Freedom. I would be shocked if anyone but American Freedom was leading. Laoban, maybe, but he has to clear and gun it over early. If Arrogate is leading, it means the race is over.
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pointgiven23 ChessChamp • 2 hours ago
Arrogate has drawn inside posts in Cali and shown speed from there, but he's never put down fast fractions so I expect if the pace is 47'ish he may be a few off but if its 48 or so I can definitely see Smith going for the lead.
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Ricky BeastBob • 11 hours ago
Considering they have the same trainer I'm pretty sure Bob has the strat already mapped out. I could be wrong but I don't think he flies the horse across country with Mike Smith to have him become the rabbit. Think AF here is the one that is supposed to get/pressure lead
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BeastBob Ricky • 11 hours ago
It would have been tough to pull off if the other real speed were drawn #3, 4 and 5, but I don't see one until #8 (Destin).
I don't think Arrogate will be a rabbit. If they pull off this start, Arrogate will set moderate splits while American Freedom take the other outside speeds wide (I'm tossing all the other speeds).
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Ricky BeastBob • 11 hours ago
Not tough to pull off, but I think BOB wants AF on near lead and Arrogant stalking them. He sent Arrogant there for a reason and with his breeding it's not to help AF out. I'm more inclined to believe AF is there to play the role of Dortmund in the Preakness.
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Blueyedhusky Ricky • 11 hours ago
Arrogate
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Ricky Blueyedhusky • 11 hours ago
Tell my auto correct that
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BeastBob Ricky • 11 hours ago
Dortmund didn't do a good job in the Preakness, Mr.Z went by him in the opening quarter mile as if he was stuck in the mud.
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Players Klub BeastBob • 6 hours ago
It was a monsoon. That race cannot be extrapolated into much of anything.
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Ricky BeastBob • 11 hours ago
Thought he did great job as Bob was never concerned with Mr Z, only firing line. He also let AP off the rail so he was not in the deeper water
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BeastBob Ricky • 10 hours ago
With speed like Mr.Z and Uncle Lino, they are cheap. There's no worry about them being there at the end. The concern is about them doing damage early.
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Ricky • 12 hours ago
On Paul's site he has only 3 horses at below 10-1. EX (3-1..seems high), connect 4-1, AF 6-1. If you tell me I can get double digit odds on Destin, GM, GR and Arrogant it will be hard to pick a horse. I have never seen Destin run a bad race, GM is my pick for winner, GR may be able to follow loaban inside right out of the gate And Arrogant...I do not think Bob flies a horse across country for no reason. Odds seem a little of to me here but anything above 10-1 on GM I find hard to pass up.
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apquickallday • 13 hours ago
Love it!!. Nice big field of good horses. I'm playing Laoban as I think he is peaking right now. Also, American Freedom will get play.
Chalk= BOOOOOO
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Ricky • 13 hours ago
At the rate of these comments gun runner will be 15-1. Post position is important, but if the track is keeping speed at all I'll take those odds. I mean one bad performance on a sloppy track and everyone writes him off.
Seriously though...good luck on this one. I might just try for the homerun and if EX or AF beats me then so be it
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pointgiven23 Ricky • 13 hours ago
Post 14 though now
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Ricky pointgiven23 • 12 hours ago
Yeah, will have to follow labaon inside. With two closers inside of them ibhink they could get decent position and he does have good tactical speed. If track is not keeping speed he can't win. But if it is I think he could get a piece of he can not be hung out too wide turn one. I think he has the talent, but everything would have to go right. It is a tall task for sure
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pointgiven23 Ricky • 2 hours ago
Being wide at the Spa is just not where you want to be this past week or so. And I do agree he's going to have to bring his top race to get a piece of it from out there. I would have put him more prominent in my strategy for this race had he gotten a better post where Flo could be expected to get a ground saving trip near the lead as he wants. I'm still considering him for the bottom half of exotics.
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richard jaimungal Ricky • 13 hours ago
Not a bad idea..he did run well in the derby..but the way Ex has been lucky lately..it just might rain..
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sczen50 richard jaimungal • 8 hours ago
lol uhh yep....
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Ricky richard jaimungal • 13 hours ago
Well ofcourse rain changes it. If it rained I would pull GR and set him up for more success another day
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shoewiley • 14 hours ago
Connect was born on my birthday and I always bet my birthday horses. Some day Governor Malibur will get a clean trip and win a big race. Don't know if it will be the Travers but we'll see.
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Ferrisjso26 • 14 hours ago
I think Exagerrator, Destin and American Freedom are the potential winners here. Gun Runner might have improved since the Derby as evidenced by the Matt Winn but seeing as he gassed in the Derby the question is how much? The Travers will almost certainly be slower than the Derby but I don't see him competing with horses like Exagg and Destin who've been able to get this distance for awhile now. Gun Runner's chance to break out was the Haskell and the rain ruined that for him, I can see him looking good here but I don't see him winning. I'm picking the full brother of one of my all time favs Destin to take this. I'm not crossing him out as a special horse just yet. While he looked gassed in the Belmont at 12, he'll never have to run that distance again and I think 10 will be good for him. I also have a feeling the American Freedom hype people might be on to something. Exaggerator is to inconsistent for me to pick. Last time I put money on him he missed the board. He's the rightful favorite but this horse is horribly overrated. Have nothing against him but this horse has lost more than he's won and yet people are treating him like the Eclipse favorite and it just doesn't make sense to me.
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jrem1 Ferrisjso26 • 14 hours ago
It's pretty wide open. I've got to stick with a majority of the big names like Destin, Gov Malibu, AF, and perhaps Creator, but I wouldn't be surprised if an Arrogate, Gift Box , or Connect pulled it off. I don't want to forget Exx either. He will be in the hunt wet or dry. Don't know if it's just me, but it's hard for me to single out an exact winner in this one for me. I actually had an easier time with the KD...lols
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Chiefs Crown jrem1 • 10 hours ago
Possibly a Chad Brown cold exacta....Gift Box/My Man Sam! Under the radar horses!
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jrem1 Chiefs Crown • 5 hours ago
You never know, but that would be a sweet outcome for sure.
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Ferrisjso26 jrem1 • 10 hours ago
Yeh agreed this race looks like a betting nightmare. Also yeh Exagerrator will probably be in the hunt, I just think people seeing him as big favorite who will probably will are overestimating him. He probably has the best chance of winning but in a field like this, what does that really mean? Connect is intriguing, I just can't see one of the second tier horses in this race beating a field like this. Then again look at Loaban.
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jrem1 Ferrisjso26 • 5 hours ago
It's one of those race that's just hard to get a clear pick, but it's such a nice field that you just have to throw a little bit of dinero at it just for fun.
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richard jaimungal • 14 hours ago
My man sam..wins this..
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Ricky richard jaimungal • 12 hours ago
I keep picturing a wall of horses making it hard for the closers here. I could be totally wrong but I can see 6 wide in the back stretch at some point if there is a decent pace
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