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PostPosted: Fri Oct 07, 2016 7:45 pm 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
If luck is what wins in the playoffs then everyone would go to Vegas and bet on the bottom half of odds and make huge money over a few years. They don't.


:lol: No one is saying it's 100% luck. Baseball inarguably has more variance than any other sport in small sample sizes.

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PostPosted: Fri Oct 07, 2016 8:34 pm 
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leashyourkids wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
If luck is what wins in the playoffs then everyone would go to Vegas and bet on the bottom half of odds and make huge money over a few years. They don't.


:lol: No one is saying it's 100% luck. Baseball inarguably has more variance than any other sport in small sample sizes.

It's not inarguable. Hockey pucks bounce in odd ways--in fact, the Hawks may have lost a playoff series because of an odd bounce. The Raiders lost their franchise when Vincent Jackson fucked up his hip. There are a few things about baseball that are unique, but luck isn't one of them.

The Sox did catch every break possible in 2005. Didn't matter, though.

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PostPosted: Fri Oct 07, 2016 8:38 pm 
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formerlyknownas wrote:
leashyourkids wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
If luck is what wins in the playoffs then everyone would go to Vegas and bet on the bottom half of odds and make huge money over a few years. They don't.


:lol: No one is saying it's 100% luck. Baseball inarguably has more variance than any other sport in small sample sizes.

It's not inarguable. Hockey pucks bounce in odd ways--in fact, the Hawks may have lost a playoff series because of an odd bounce. The Raiders lost their franchise when Vincent Jackson fucked up his hip. There are a few things about baseball that are unique, but luck isn't one of them.

The Sox did catch every break possible in 2005. Didn't matter, though.


You're factually wrong. This ain't about the Sox. Baseball has more variance in small samples than any other sport. It's not a matter of opinion.

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PostPosted: Fri Oct 07, 2016 8:44 pm 
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Most teams that win a World Series have some luck. The White Sox had a very good pitching foursome that were on fire at the same time and a great closer. Really the most lucky thing to me was the fact that the entire NL sucked that year so beating the Astros was a cake walk.

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PostPosted: Fri Oct 07, 2016 8:45 pm 
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leashyourkids wrote:
formerlyknownas wrote:
leashyourkids wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
If luck is what wins in the playoffs then everyone would go to Vegas and bet on the bottom half of odds and make huge money over a few years. They don't.


:lol: No one is saying it's 100% luck. Baseball inarguably has more variance than any other sport in small sample sizes.

It's not inarguable. Hockey pucks bounce in odd ways--in fact, the Hawks may have lost a playoff series because of an odd bounce. The Raiders lost their franchise when Vincent Jackson fucked up his hip. There are a few things about baseball that are unique, but luck isn't one of them.

The Sox did catch every break possible in 2005. Didn't matter, though.


You're factually wrong. This ain't about the Sox. Baseball has more variance in small samples than any other sport. It's not a matter of opinion.

What facts? How can you offer facts about luck, which is interpretive? One person's luck is someone else's shitty play. It's completely arguable. Inarguable? If that was a poor choice of words, so be it.

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PostPosted: Fri Oct 07, 2016 8:47 pm 
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Crystal Lake Hoffy wrote:
Most teams that win a World Series have some luck. The White Sox had a very good pitching foursome that were on fire at the same time and a great closer. Really the most lucky thing to me was the fact that the entire NL sucked that year so beating the Astros was a cake walk.

Ok, so then how are you defining luck? Injuries--do they count? What is luck?

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PostPosted: Fri Oct 07, 2016 8:47 pm 
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I'm not arguing luck. There are statistics that show the variance in baseball vs. other sports. But honestly, I'm not sure why you'd need them unless you're in denial. It's obvious.

Also, I'll set your house on fire, too.

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PostPosted: Fri Oct 07, 2016 8:50 pm 
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leashyourkids wrote:
I'm not arguing luck. There are statistics that show the variance in baseball vs. other sports. But honestly, I'm not sure why you'd need them unless you're in denial. It's obvious.

Also, I'll set your house on fire, too.

Leash, I know where you live, down to the state. I also bench 460.

Go watch the Cubs game. Good luck, though I don't think they'll need it.

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PostPosted: Fri Oct 07, 2016 8:51 pm 
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formerlyknownas wrote:
Crystal Lake Hoffy wrote:
Most teams that win a World Series have some luck. The White Sox had a very good pitching foursome that were on fire at the same time and a great closer. Really the most lucky thing to me was the fact that the entire NL sucked that year so beating the Astros was a cake walk.

Ok, so then how are you defining luck? Injuries--do they count? What is luck?


I'm just saying, its easy to go fishing for things that you can call luck. Like my example. You could say that the fact the White Sox made the World Series in a year where a very weak Astros also made it was luck.

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PostPosted: Fri Oct 07, 2016 8:53 pm 
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formerlyknownas wrote:
leashyourkids wrote:
I'm not arguing luck. There are statistics that show the variance in baseball vs. other sports. But honestly, I'm not sure why you'd need them unless you're in denial. It's obvious.

Also, I'll set your house on fire, too.

Leash, I know where you live, down to the state. I also bench 460.

Go watch the Cubs game. Good luck, though I don't think they'll need it.


I parallel squatted 590 in high school. Now I sweat when I walk my dog. Big deal.

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PostPosted: Fri Oct 07, 2016 8:54 pm 
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leashyourkids wrote:
formerlyknownas wrote:
leashyourkids wrote:
I'm not arguing luck. There are statistics that show the variance in baseball vs. other sports. But honestly, I'm not sure why you'd need them unless you're in denial. It's obvious.

Also, I'll set your house on fire, too.

Leash, I know where you live, down to the state. I also bench 460.

Go watch the Cubs game. Good luck, though I don't think they'll need it.


I parallel squatted 590 in high school. Now I sweat when I walk my dog. Big deal.

Jesus....it just reminds me that I have chicken legs....

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PostPosted: Sun Oct 09, 2016 9:46 am 
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leashyourkids wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
If luck is what wins in the playoffs then everyone would go to Vegas and bet on the bottom half of odds and make huge money over a few years. They don't.


:lol: No one is saying it's 100% luck. Baseball inarguably has more variance than any other sport in small sample sizes.

Variance is not the same thing as luck. There are actual reasons the best regular season team doesn't win as much in baseball. The strategies that work are different. As they pointed out in the Cubs game. The Cubs had 5 of the best pitchers in baseball. They won't use them all. That lessens that advantage.

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PostPosted: Sun Oct 09, 2016 9:50 am 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
leashyourkids wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
If luck is what wins in the playoffs then everyone would go to Vegas and bet on the bottom half of odds and make huge money over a few years. They don't.


:lol: No one is saying it's 100% luck. Baseball inarguably has more variance than any other sport in small sample sizes.

Variance is not the same thing as luck. There are actual reasons the best regular season team doesn't win as much in baseball. The strategies that work are different. As they pointed out in the Cubs game. The Cubs had 5 of the best pitchers in baseball. They won't use them all. That lessens that advantage.


There's a lot of luck too. That doesn't mean it's a crapshoot. Your statement about odds above actually proves my point. The odds in Vegas for baseball aren't drastically different, but if you looked at NBA odds, you'd see a huge difference. The Cubs are always a bad play, though, because idiot Cub fans always bet them.

There is more randomness to baseball than any other sport in small samples.

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PostPosted: Sun Oct 09, 2016 9:52 am 
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leashyourkids wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
leashyourkids wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
If luck is what wins in the playoffs then everyone would go to Vegas and bet on the bottom half of odds and make huge money over a few years. They don't.


:lol: No one is saying it's 100% luck. Baseball inarguably has more variance than any other sport in small sample sizes.

Variance is not the same thing as luck. There are actual reasons the best regular season team doesn't win as much in baseball. The strategies that work are different. As they pointed out in the Cubs game. The Cubs had 5 of the best pitchers in baseball. They won't use them all. That lessens that advantage.


There's a lot of luck too. That doesn't mean it's a crapshoot. Your statement about odds above actually proves my point. The odds in Vegas for baseball aren't drastically different, but if you looked at NBA odds, you'd see a huge difference. The Cubs are always a bad play, though, because idiot Cub fans always bet them.

There is more randomness to baseball than any other sport in small samples.

Variance is not luck though. If someone says the White Sox in 2005 we're aided by variance no one cares. The Cubs this year are being aided by variance too.

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PostPosted: Sun Oct 09, 2016 9:54 am 
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Rick, this is not a Cubs-Sox argument for me. It's just fact. If you want proof, look at my post on the first page where I said Bernstein is an idiot and defended the Sox.

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 10, 2016 2:01 pm 
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Crystal Lake Hoffy wrote:
Most teams that win a World Series have some luck. The White Sox had a very good pitching foursome that were on fire at the same time and a great closer. Really the most lucky thing to me was the fact that the entire NL sucked that year so beating the Astros was a cake walk.

Maybe the lucky thing was all other 29 MLB teams sucked that year, because the entire season and postseason was a cake walk for the Sox that year.

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 11, 2016 2:08 pm 
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Does being "lucky" include going through multiple closers in one season?


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 11, 2016 2:40 pm 
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leashyourkids wrote:
I parallel squatted 590 in high school. Now I sweat when I walk my dog. Big deal.


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 11, 2016 3:16 pm 
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Peter Puck wrote:
Does being "lucky" include going through multiple closers in one season?

Illini Inn had some sweet pinball action

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 11, 2016 3:20 pm 
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leashyourkids wrote:
formerlyknownas wrote:
leashyourkids wrote:
I'm not arguing luck. There are statistics that show the variance in baseball vs. other sports. But honestly, I'm not sure why you'd need them unless you're in denial. It's obvious.

Also, I'll set your house on fire, too.

Leash, I know where you live, down to the state. I also bench 460.

Go watch the Cubs game. Good luck, though I don't think they'll need it.


I parallel squatted 590 in high school. Now I sweat when I walk my dog. Big deal.


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 11, 2016 6:08 pm 
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formerlyknownas wrote:
Peter Puck wrote:
Does being "lucky" include going through multiple closers in one season?

Illini Inn had some sweet pinball action


And a sweet juke box.


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 11, 2016 6:46 pm 
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Peter Puck wrote:
formerlyknownas wrote:
Peter Puck wrote:
Does being "lucky" include going through multiple closers in one season?

Illini Inn had some sweet pinball action


And a sweet juke box.

Shit, that's right! Did they also serve pizza slices upstairs when you were there? Those things were just about the best slices I have ever had.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 12, 2016 11:55 am 
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formerlyknownas wrote:
Peter Puck wrote:
formerlyknownas wrote:
Peter Puck wrote:
Does being "lucky" include going through multiple closers in one season?

Illini Inn had some sweet pinball action


And a sweet juke box.

Shit, that's right! Did they also serve pizza slices upstairs when you were there? Those things were just about the best slices I have ever had.

Yes. Willie's, thick and cheesy pizza sold upstsirs.


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 12, 2016 12:04 pm 
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Ozzie himself commented that the 2005 White Sox were lucky....it does take quite a bit of luck.

I did hear this portion of the show and it was a great example of Dan just being a douchebag talk show host.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 12, 2016 12:05 pm 
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Peter Puck wrote:
formerlyknownas wrote:
Peter Puck wrote:
formerlyknownas wrote:
Peter Puck wrote:
Does being "lucky" include going through multiple closers in one season?

Illini Inn had some sweet pinball action


And a sweet juke box.

Shit, that's right! Did they also serve pizza slices upstairs when you were there? Those things were just about the best slices I have ever had.

Yes. Willie's, thick and cheesy pizza sold upstsirs.


What's your Mug Club #?

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 12, 2016 2:52 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Peter Puck wrote:
formerlyknownas wrote:
Peter Puck wrote:
formerlyknownas wrote:
Peter Puck wrote:
Does being "lucky" include going through multiple closers in one season?

Illini Inn had some sweet pinball action


And a sweet juke box.

Shit, that's right! Did they also serve pizza slices upstairs when you were there? Those things were just about the best slices I have ever had.

Yes. Willie's, thick and cheesy pizza sold upstsirs.


What's your Mug Club #?


14552. Yours?


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 12, 2016 2:55 pm 
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Peter Puck wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:

What's your Mug Club #?


14552. Yours?


Hell, I don't remember. I think my friend Mike had a two digit number but he's a little older than I am.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 12, 2016 3:29 pm 
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Peter Puck wrote:
formerlyknownas wrote:
Peter Puck wrote:
formerlyknownas wrote:
Peter Puck wrote:
Does being "lucky" include going through multiple closers in one season?

Illini Inn had some sweet pinball action


And a sweet juke box.

Shit, that's right! Did they also serve pizza slices upstairs when you were there? Those things were just about the best slices I have ever had.

Yes. Willie's, thick and cheesy pizza sold upstsirs.

I've actually had dreams about those slices....

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 12, 2016 3:36 pm 
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Cubs were super lucky last night.


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 23, 2016 12:33 am 
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Peter Puck wrote:
Does being "lucky" include going through multiple closers in one season?


No Frank Either. He wasnt very good any more but better than Carl Everett. Who was that Japanese closer early in that year that threw frisbies like 50 mph?


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