A team option is not the same as a player option/mutual option.

I'm just going off what was reported. Cubs told Hammel he'd be welcome back if he wanted to return. Although not drawn up that way, sure sounds like a player/mutual option to me.

I do find this conversation fascinating because the conventional wisdom immediately after McCracken's research became public was that, from the perspective of the pitcher/defense, "the results of all balls in play are based on luck and over a large enough sample will always be somewhere close to .300." Now this viewpoint seems to be undergoing modification to a point where there is the idea that perhaps where batted balls go and what happens to them (besides home runs, of course) is controllable to a greater degree by the pitcher/defense than previously believed.

However, and this is something that good dolphin has mentioned countless times, there seems to be a predisposition among SABRmetricians to confer special status on certain people, e.g. Beane, Epstein. Which leads me to wonder, if the White Sox or Royals had a staff BABIP of .250 would the prevailing viewpoint be that such was good or lucky.

So you're telling me that TheoandJed left the construction of next season's team up to a guy who couldn't even make the playoff roster? Maybe they're not as smart as they're cracked up to be.

That doesn't sound like a really good plan, does it?

So you're telling me that TheoandJed left the construction of next season's team up to a guy who couldn't even make the playoff roster? Maybe they're not as smart as they're cracked up to be.

I'm just going off what was reported. Cubs told Hammel he'd be welcome back if he wanted to return. Although not drawn up that way, sure sounds like a player/mutual option to me.

BABIP, "The league average for modern pitcher BABIP is around .300"...that's league average...so it would make sense that good pitchers, on good defensive teams would consistently have the lowest BABIP. There's no reason that a very good defensive team, with a very good pitching staff, like the Cubs, could remain below that .300 average for multiple seasons.

That's what you seemed to be believing in this post.

One Post with a rough thread.

having issues with the ol' sarcasm detector on top of it too...

This is not what I saw reported. What I saw, was that when the Cubs signed Hammel, they let him know that they wouldn't simply pick up his option and then trade him...they would specifically not pick up the option and they would let him become a free agent. They honored their handshake agreement on the option, because the Cubs were not going to bring him back next season. Hammel would have been a decent trade chip if they had him signed for $12mil next season. By not picking up the option, Hammel picks up $2mil from the Cubs and will likely sign for more than $12mil/season for 2-4 years. This also makes the Cubs look good to other potential short term guys that might want to come in for a season or two, build up their resumes and move on. Good PR move by the Cubs.

That's not what I was saying. I think Jesse Rogers is a moron.

This is not what I saw reported. What I saw, was that when the Cubs signed Hammel, they let him know that they wouldn't simply pick up his option and then trade him...they would specifically not pick up the option and they would let him become a free agent. They honored their handshake agreement on the option, because the Cubs were not going to bring him back next season. Hammel would have been a decent trade chip if they had him signed for $12mil next season. By not picking up the option, Hammel picks up $2mil from the Cubs and will likely sign for more than $12mil/season for 2-4 years. This also makes the Cubs look good to other potential short term guys that might want to come in for a season or two, build up their resumes and move on. Good PR move by the Cubs.

The entire theory behind FIP or DIPS is that all balls in play over a large enough sample is going to work out to about a .300 average. The history shows that a team that has an extraordinarily low BABIP one season doesn't necessarily come back with a similar BABIP the next year in spite of having the same defenders. It would be similar to saying a team is good at winning one-run games based on a single season. The next year it's quite likely they won't have that same stellar record in one run games. In fact, it appears that even bernstein's beloved spray charts and radical shifts cannot alter the fact that batted balls simply work out to a rate of reaching base at an approximately 30% clip.

Again...the league wide average will always tend to be about .300. This only can happen if some teams are skewing higher and some teams are skewing lower. There's no way in Hell, that it's all luck. The better teams/pitchers/batters are going to skew in the more positive direction of BABIP over time. Sure, there is rarefied air levels to the +/- that can be chalked up as an outlier season...be it an exceptionally great season by a great player or lucky scrub or an vice versa...but the exceptional player is going to skew to the positive side over time.

Let me clarify my understanding of FIP. Theoretically anyway, if you or I were to pitch 2000 innings our BABIP would be right around .300. Actually, as non-professionals we'd probably be slightly higher, as obviously we would yield more screaming line drives than say, Kyle Hendricks. But ultimately the significant difference is going to lie in the strikeouts- or lack thereof- and home runs rather than a huge disparity in BABIP. Over a particular stretch a good defense might trim a little off that number. But over a large enough sample it's gonna be close to .300 for every big league pitcher.

Don't forget walks

If you hate Laurence, then don't listen - don't comment. When he co-hosts the B&B show, take that day off ... listen to an old podcast of a Bernstein solo show and jerk off all day.

Don't forget walks

Absolutely, .254 should definitely be looked as an outlier season. The Cubs' staff was still at .290 last season. Barring massive injuries, terrible outlier seasons by the top 3, etc...I could see the Cubs finishing 2017 somewhere in between, likely in the .280-.290 range.

On the offensive side, the Cubs have been hovering a little over .300...which, conceivably is on the low side for the next 2-4 years.

It's going to be tough to keep the Cubs out of the playoffs for the next couple years, at least.

I'm a big dumb shitlib baby

When Jake isn't wild and walking people, he's still been ace-level..

There was an MLB Network on ESPN special last night about Statcast, and the question of BABIP vs. "weak contact" came up. Hendricks and Arrieta were two of the league leaders in the latter. When Jake isn't wild and walking people, he's still been ace-level.

similar article: http://m.mlb.com/news/article/201699298 ... hit-balls/

Theo may have gotten a boost from his statistical boyquarium a couple of years ago if they were ahead of the curve on this in going after those two guys. It may be more difficult going forward.

I'm fine with letting Hammel go. Some mid-level team like the Yankees will give him 1/14 to be an innings eater and then flip him if they're out of contention. I think that Soler and Sczuzr get traded for pitching depth, while Strop and Rondon get traded for more minor league lottery tickets.

Mike Montgomery was a pitcher who couldn't get to the majors as a starter until a late age and when he did, he wasn't very good. This Montgomery extrapolation into starter's innings is like people who think that seventh man should be a starter because of his per minutes statistics.