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 Post subject: Free Trade
PostPosted: Wed Nov 09, 2016 1:24 pm 
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I'd like to hear people's thoughts on this. MANY are cheering Donald for his threats of "re-negotiating trade deals" and imposing tariffs. I'd be curious how many think that will genuinely work.

I'm not saying it wouldn't, but there was a large portion of economists who thought that economic globalization was inevitable in the '80s, let alone now that labor and capital has already been exported to other countries.

Do we really think this works? I honestly don't know, but I have my reservations... and his rhetoric here is anything but Conservative.

Midge, whaddya think?

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 Post subject: Re: Free Trade
PostPosted: Wed Nov 09, 2016 1:43 pm 
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I think it boils down to a zero-sum game: helping a smaller number of people in a major way, but hurting more in a small way. For example, we all enjoy low prices on the stuff now being made in China and Mexico. It saves us a few bucks. But to the person here who lost his job, it's an extremely big deal and motivates him more to vote for the candidate who promises to get it back than it does for the vast majority who are benefiting on a broader but smaller scale on price.

If Trump could wave a magic wand and create a million new jobs (ie., taking them from abroad), but it meant significantly higher prices on TVs, air conditioners, clothes, etc., would people be in favor of that? That seems to be the crux of the matter.

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 Post subject: Re: Free Trade
PostPosted: Wed Nov 09, 2016 1:53 pm 
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A few months ago I listened to a great podcast from Branko Milanovic who held a talk for the LSE. His area of research is the growing inequality of the globe. The hollowing out of the middle class (per Western standards) is hollowing out. The "poor" populace of emerging economies are growing as well as capital owners.

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I bought his book but haven't had an opportunity to begin reading it yet.


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 Post subject: Re: Free Trade
PostPosted: Wed Nov 09, 2016 2:03 pm 
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Jaw Breaker wrote:
I think it boils down to a zero-sum game: helping a smaller number of people in a major way, but hurting more in a small way. For example, we all enjoy low prices on the stuff now being made in China and Mexico. It saves us a few bucks. But to the person here who lost his job, it's an extremely big deal and motivates him more to vote for the candidate who promises to get it back than it does for the vast majority who are benefiting on a broader but smaller scale on price.

If Trump could wave a magic wand and create a million new jobs (ie., taking them from abroad), but it meant significantly higher prices on TVs, air conditioners, clothes, etc., would people be in favor of that? That seems to be the crux of the matter.


The same people who claim to love small business shop at Walmart so they can save five cents on a can of green beans, while putting mom and pop out of business.

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 Post subject: Re: Free Trade
PostPosted: Wed Nov 09, 2016 2:06 pm 
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Chus wrote:
Jaw Breaker wrote:
I think it boils down to a zero-sum game: helping a smaller number of people in a major way, but hurting more in a small way. For example, we all enjoy low prices on the stuff now being made in China and Mexico. It saves us a few bucks. But to the person here who lost his job, it's an extremely big deal and motivates him more to vote for the candidate who promises to get it back than it does for the vast majority who are benefiting on a broader but smaller scale on price.

If Trump could wave a magic wand and create a million new jobs (ie., taking them from abroad), but it meant significantly higher prices on TVs, air conditioners, clothes, etc., would people be in favor of that? That seems to be the crux of the matter.


The same people who claim to love small business shop at Walmart so they can save five cents on a can of green beans, while putting mom and pop out of business.


Yes. My brother-in-law is one of those guys. He speaks so fondly of the little mom-and-pops and laments the loss when one of them closes down, he'll go in one and look around and enjoy the old time feel, but when he wants to buy something he'll drive five miles to Costco.

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 Post subject: Re: Free Trade
PostPosted: Wed Nov 09, 2016 2:09 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Chus wrote:
Jaw Breaker wrote:
I think it boils down to a zero-sum game: helping a smaller number of people in a major way, but hurting more in a small way. For example, we all enjoy low prices on the stuff now being made in China and Mexico. It saves us a few bucks. But to the person here who lost his job, it's an extremely big deal and motivates him more to vote for the candidate who promises to get it back than it does for the vast majority who are benefiting on a broader but smaller scale on price.

If Trump could wave a magic wand and create a million new jobs (ie., taking them from abroad), but it meant significantly higher prices on TVs, air conditioners, clothes, etc., would people be in favor of that? That seems to be the crux of the matter.


The same people who claim to love small business shop at Walmart so they can save five cents on a can of green beans, while putting mom and pop out of business.


Yes. My brother-in-law is one of those guys. He speaks so fondly of the little mom-and-pops and laments the loss when one of them closes down, he'll go in one and look around and enjoy the old time feel, but when he wants to buy something he'll drive five miles to Costco.


That's how 99% of the population is. That's why I think it's easier said than done to try to go back to some sort of protectionism. When we can't get 5 lighters for a quarter at Wal-Mart anymore, people will be pissed. And I don't think you can ever get an entire population to buy something for more money out of an allegiance to local business. It will just never happen.

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 Post subject: Re: Free Trade
PostPosted: Wed Nov 09, 2016 2:21 pm 
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Buy American went away with Subarus and Toyotas. Now the only loyals left are bikers with Harleys and tradesmen with F150s.

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 Post subject: Re: Free Trade
PostPosted: Wed Nov 09, 2016 2:29 pm 
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pittmike wrote:
Buy American went away with Subarus and Toyotas. Now the only loyals left are bikers with Harleys and tradesmen with F150s.


My Toyota was assembled in Princeton, Indiana.

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 Post subject: Re: Free Trade
PostPosted: Wed Nov 09, 2016 2:30 pm 
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pittmike wrote:
Buy American went away with Subarus and Toyotas. Now the only loyals left are bikers with Harleys and tradesmen with F150s.


A lot of American auto manufacturers use products made in China. Toyota has plants in the United States. So it's not like it's so cut and dry.

I would consider a foreign car if they could import a little leg room, but that's just me.

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 Post subject: Re: Free Trade
PostPosted: Wed Nov 09, 2016 2:31 pm 
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leashyourkids wrote:
When we can't get 5 lighters for a quarter at Wal-Mart anymore, people will be pissed.


Somebody needs to stop smoking.

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 Post subject: Re: Free Trade
PostPosted: Wed Nov 09, 2016 2:34 pm 
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Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
pittmike wrote:
Buy American went away with Subarus and Toyotas. Now the only loyals left are bikers with Harleys and tradesmen with F150s.


My Toyota was assembled in Princeton, Indiana.


And the Ford was assembled in Mexico. Patriotism fail. :lol:

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 Post subject: Re: Free Trade
PostPosted: Wed Nov 09, 2016 2:35 pm 
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Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
pittmike wrote:
Buy American went away with Subarus and Toyotas. Now the only loyals left are bikers with Harleys and tradesmen with F150s.


My Toyota was assembled in Princeton, Indiana.
Most of the money gets shipped away though.

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 Post subject: Re: Free Trade
PostPosted: Wed Nov 09, 2016 2:38 pm 
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pittmike wrote:
Buy American went away with Subarus and Toyotas. Now the only loyals left are bikers with Harleys and tradesmen with F150s.

Buy American is still around. For example, there are number clothes manufacturers experiencing a small renaissance. However, their clothes in your price range if you're a single person/DINK pulling a yuppie salary. A cottage industry of MiUSA products focused on extracting yuppie's discretionary income is growing nicely.


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 Post subject: Re: Free Trade
PostPosted: Wed Nov 09, 2016 2:48 pm 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
pittmike wrote:
Buy American went away with Subarus and Toyotas. Now the only loyals left are bikers with Harleys and tradesmen with F150s.


My Toyota was assembled in Princeton, Indiana.
Most of the money gets shipped away though.


Shipping money doesn't seem wise.

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 Post subject: Re: Free Trade
PostPosted: Wed Nov 09, 2016 2:50 pm 
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Kirkwood wrote:
pittmike wrote:
Buy American went away with Subarus and Toyotas. Now the only loyals left are bikers with Harleys and tradesmen with F150s.

Buy American is still around. For example, there are number clothes manufacturers experiencing a small renaissance. However, their clothes in your price range if you're a single person/DINK pulling a yuppie salary. A cottage industry of MiUSA products focused on extracting yuppie's discretionary income is growing nicely.

It's a lot like buying organic....it's damn expensive.

We're just addicted to cheap stuff. The system takes over--you can't even shield your kids from this shit.

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 Post subject: Re: Free Trade
PostPosted: Wed Nov 09, 2016 2:52 pm 
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Kirkwood wrote:
Buy American is still around. For example, there are number clothes manufacturers experiencing a small renaissance. However, their clothes in your price range if you're a single person/DINK pulling a yuppie salary.


Saying "buy American" is the financial equivalent of telling everyone to "shop at Whole Foods." The food at Whole Foods might be more organic, but people still have a budget on what they can afford. Spending more money on American goods might benefit jobs in some ways, but it doesn't benefit people who can't afford more.

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 Post subject: Re: Free Trade
PostPosted: Wed Nov 09, 2016 2:53 pm 
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I'd hate to be an executive opening a new facility in Mexico City right now.

That would suck.

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 Post subject: Re: Free Trade
PostPosted: Wed Nov 09, 2016 3:00 pm 
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Drake LaRrieta wrote:
Kirkwood wrote:
Buy American is still around. For example, there are number clothes manufacturers experiencing a small renaissance. However, their clothes in your price range if you're a single person/DINK pulling a yuppie salary.


Saying "buy American" is the financial equivalent of telling everyone to "shop at Whole Foods." The food at Whole Foods might be more organic, but people still have a budget on what they can afford. Spending more money on American goods might benefit jobs in some ways, but it doesn't benefit people who can't afford more.

Pretty much. Summed up nicely by the Sam Vimes Boots Theory in Men At Arms.

Buying a pair a boots for $200 bucks that lasts 5 years leaves you wealthier than buying 5 pairs for $50 each year.


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 Post subject: Re: Free Trade
PostPosted: Wed Nov 09, 2016 3:01 pm 
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Kirkwood wrote:
Drake LaRrieta wrote:
Kirkwood wrote:
Buy American is still around. For example, there are number clothes manufacturers experiencing a small renaissance. However, their clothes in your price range if you're a single person/DINK pulling a yuppie salary.


Saying "buy American" is the financial equivalent of telling everyone to "shop at Whole Foods." The food at Whole Foods might be more organic, but people still have a budget on what they can afford. Spending more money on American goods might benefit jobs in some ways, but it doesn't benefit people who can't afford more.

Pretty much. Summed up nicely by the Sam Vimes Boots Theory in Men At Arms.

Buying a pair a boots for $200 bucks that lasts 5 years leaves you wealthier than buying 5 pairs for $50 each year.

But if you don't have money, you can't plan ahead like that.

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 Post subject: Re: Free Trade
PostPosted: Wed Nov 09, 2016 3:02 pm 
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formerlyknownas wrote:
Kirkwood wrote:
Drake LaRrieta wrote:
Kirkwood wrote:
Buy American is still around. For example, there are number clothes manufacturers experiencing a small renaissance. However, their clothes in your price range if you're a single person/DINK pulling a yuppie salary.


Saying "buy American" is the financial equivalent of telling everyone to "shop at Whole Foods." The food at Whole Foods might be more organic, but people still have a budget on what they can afford. Spending more money on American goods might benefit jobs in some ways, but it doesn't benefit people who can't afford more.

Pretty much. Summed up nicely by the Sam Vimes Boots Theory in Men At Arms.

Buying a pair a boots for $200 bucks that lasts 5 years leaves you wealthier than buying 5 pairs for $50 each year.

But if you don't have money, you can't plan ahead like that.

Work barefoot, rube.

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 Post subject: Re: Free Trade
PostPosted: Thu Nov 10, 2016 11:49 am 
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Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
I'd hate to be an executive opening a new facility in Mexico City right now.

That would suck.

Carrier is doing it

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 Post subject: Re: Free Trade
PostPosted: Thu Nov 10, 2016 11:55 am 
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formerlyknownas wrote:
Kirkwood wrote:
Drake LaRrieta wrote:
Kirkwood wrote:
Buy American is still around. For example, there are number clothes manufacturers experiencing a small renaissance. However, their clothes in your price range if you're a single person/DINK pulling a yuppie salary.


Saying "buy American" is the financial equivalent of telling everyone to "shop at Whole Foods." The food at Whole Foods might be more organic, but people still have a budget on what they can afford. Spending more money on American goods might benefit jobs in some ways, but it doesn't benefit people who can't afford more.

Pretty much. Summed up nicely by the Sam Vimes Boots Theory in Men At Arms.

Buying a pair a boots for $200 bucks that lasts 5 years leaves you wealthier than buying 5 pairs for $50 each year.

But if you don't have money, you can't plan ahead like that.

Ah, details, details ... ain't nobody got time for that.

Anyone know if that 5-cents off sale on green beans is still going on at Walmart?

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 Post subject: Re: Free Trade
PostPosted: Thu Nov 10, 2016 12:05 pm 
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Darkside wrote:
Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote:
I'd hate to be an executive opening a new facility in Mexico City right now.

That would suck.

Carrier is doing it


MANY are.

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 Post subject: Re: Free Trade
PostPosted: Thu Nov 10, 2016 12:09 pm 
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Anyone have an actual opinion on this? Where's Someguy?

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 Post subject: Re: Free Trade
PostPosted: Thu Nov 10, 2016 12:43 pm 
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leashyourkids wrote:
I'd like to hear people's thoughts on this. MANY are cheering Donald for his threats of "re-negotiating trade deals" and imposing tariffs. I'd be curious how many think that will genuinely work.

I'm not saying it wouldn't, but there was a large portion of economists who thought that economic globalization was inevitable in the '80s, let alone now that labor and capital has already been exported to other countries.

Do we really think this works? I honestly don't know, but I have my reservations... and his rhetoric here is anything but Conservative.

Midge, whaddya think?


Hard to say if it will work or not since he hasn't really said what he's going to do. Tariffs will go up, almost certainly. That will be good for commodities people here in the US most likely. But, retaliation may be a bitch and then we can't export anything.

If he starts screwing with NAFTA, things are going to get real. I don't think he could really "tear it up" but he can make it worthless. I can't imagine that he can materially alter it, though. There's just too much business activity with US corporations that it would impact negatively.

The TPP is dead.

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 Post subject: Re: Free Trade
PostPosted: Thu Nov 10, 2016 1:24 pm 
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Yeah. Where is Someguy?

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 Post subject: Re: Free Trade
PostPosted: Thu Nov 10, 2016 1:28 pm 
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pittmike wrote:
Yeah. Where is Someguy?


Passed out clutching a Smirnoff bottle with both hands.

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 Post subject: Re: Free Trade
PostPosted: Thu Nov 10, 2016 1:30 pm 
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pittmike wrote:
Yeah. Where is Someguy?

He's at home ... washing his tights!.

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 Post subject: Re: Free Trade
PostPosted: Thu Nov 10, 2016 1:31 pm 
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Don Tiny wrote:
pittmike wrote:
Yeah. Where is Someguy?

He's at home ... washing his tights!.

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:lol: :lol:

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 Post subject: Re: Free Trade
PostPosted: Thu Nov 10, 2016 1:47 pm 
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pittmike wrote:
Yeah. Where is Someguy?


Too much coke...head exploded when Trump won.

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