Denis, does this mean anything at all? Should I move my money out of pumpkins?

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Sounds like a QB the Bears should target this draft.

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"All crowds boycotting football games shouldn't care who sings or takes a knee because they aren't watching." - Nas

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Power is always in the hands of the masses of men. What oppresses the masses is their own ignorance, their own short-sighted selfishness.
- Henry George

It's just a psychological level. I am uncomfortable with the overall market valuation and have pulled back on some of my trading positions. That being said, any long term investments such as college savings and retirement remain fully deployed. You cannot afford to market time that stuff.

The ever rising market is built on a few things:
-Lack of growth in most developed foreign markets like Europe,
-Few attractive alternative investments given still low bond yields,
-Expectations of a large corporate rate cut, which will lift corporate earnings significantly,
-More accommodative regulatory and legal environment.

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Hawaii (fuck) You

All my non retirement money (not much) is in consumer staples. That can only go up, right? Right?

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Hah, those are safer than your average stock (low beta in geek talk), but those aren't immune to market pull backs.

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Hawaii (fuck) You

If Denis was a betting man where would he like to gamble?

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Well, I don't make any high risk plays anymore. I just took advantage of Kohl's poor Christmas report to jump on the stock at $40. It pays a nice dividend, and the stock traditionally trades between $40 and $60. Clothing retailers have been getting hammered for a variety of reasons.

MANY like Ford. Again nice dividend. But I think the new car buying cycle has peaked and was fueled by easy financing terms and incentives. Still it has an attractive valuation.

I don't have any screaming buys because the market just keeps pushing higher.

Wealth is made over long periods of time and best done through dollar cost averaging. I just have a trading portfolio for fun.

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Hawaii (fuck) You

I seriously thought you meant the cereal in the cupboard and the milk in the fridge for a minute. Clearly I am not knowledgeable about this investment stuff. I tell people I have all my money invested in car repairs.

Artificially propped up by the lack of attractive investing options Denis mentioned

Also historically these Dow landmarks are followed by a large correction

Crude Oil is pretty low right now. Might be a good investment

Or just put it under your mattress until we see if Trump starts taking a Presidential fee out of capital gains.

Regularly invest in low cost mutual funds, then hold. Unless you want to trail the market, forget about trying to time it.

Another mistake people make is either going too conservative or not investing at all. Nothing is certain long-term, but inflation comes pretty close. Meaning the stock market presents the most viable option for most for enabling the value of your money to grow more than inflation can erode it.

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"I honestly don't see a good bet on the board here."

Yeah you can't go wrong with Vanguard Index funds. Timing is a waste and a recipe for stress and sleepless nights. Dollar cost average in to avoid buying high. Inflation is the slow killer.

Nothing can help you more than spending less than you earn.

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Hawaii (fuck) You

FUCK that I want to throw my money in the toilet.

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And maybe because this bored might skew to the young side, you don't see much retirement talk here. But clearly, with the disappearance of pensions everywhere except government work and looming social security funding problems, it has never been more imperative for people to save for their retirement, and the sooner they start the better.

It's all about time in the market, not market timing.

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"I honestly don't see a good bet on the board here."

Thought you were into pumpkins?

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Hawaii (fuck) You

I like your simple and true advice. Wall Street makes investing seem like something only an investment banker can understand. But at its heart, it is a lot of simple concepts that lead to wealth. There are so many financial products that are killing the average person- high interest rate revolving credit cards, 84 month car loans or leases that encourage people to buy beyond their means, student loan debt, reverse mortgages, pay day loans.....on and on.

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Hawaii (fuck) You

Sounds nice, but about 60 percent of the country can't afford a $500 bill. Don't think they are putting that much into their portfolio.

As for the markets, technology is moving so fast, who knows what a good stock will be in year. And the guys over at Zero Hedge think this market growth is just government debt funded smoke and mirrors.

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Why are only 14 percent of black CPS 11th-graders proficient in English?

People don't have a $500 bill because of the simplest concept- spend less than you earn. In fact it's worse, many people over consume by using credit card and other types of debt to live beyond their income level. They get buried fast.

Our schools don't teach much in the way of basic financial management. Even our smart students bury themselves in debt because they don't understand cost/benefit calculations.

I'll check out zero hedge.

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Hawaii (fuck) You

We will be below 19,500 tomorrow after people realize they have to pay the freight costs on their refigerators from China instead of Mexico.

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Don't need to go big. Start with a 5% contribute to a 401k and enjoy the company match (if there is one) and the immediate tax benefit. Then increase it every time there is a raise.

EDIT: If there is a company match find a way to contribute enough to get the full match. It's FREE MONEY. Even if you are bad at your job.

And leave stock-picking to the pros. Starting with a total stock market index fund or a target date retirement fund will work just fine.

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"I honestly don't see a good bet on the board here."

My wife contributes 6% and her company matches it.

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Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

I've gotten a couple strongly-worded letters from our 401k company for selling the pre-set "aggressive" stock mixes when the market was high and then buying the same one low within too short of a window. If you'd read their letters, you'd think I was Bernie Madoff.

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I have a feeling the market for them is going to peak right near Valentine's Day.

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* lights up cigarette *

oh yeah, i'm saving up for my retirement. i'm gonna have a nice inoperable nest-egg by the time people wanna have a look up my ass!

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I laugh at the younger folks here. They do not max out their 403b that we are provided. They will say I need this or I want that or the I am young talk. They are really dumb in our case as we get matched up to 8% at 150%!

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Elections have consequences.

I would also say that low interest rates have meant the bond market and other alternatives aren't good places to park money. I'd also say a strong dollar has aided the market.

I am still in my (late) 20s so I'm just throwing everything into S&P 500 index funds and figure I'll average 8% for the next 35 years and I should have a nest egg to retire on.

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“When I walked in this morning, and saw the flag was at half mast, I thought 'alright another bureaucrat ate it.'" - Ron Swanson

That is my exact recommendation for people. I have always done 6% of my income (17 years now). If by some miracle a company matches higher than 6%, then set aside more to capture the full match. But at 6% you will build a nice nest egg in line with your income.

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Hawaii (fuck) You

Matches are free return to you. It is the biggest no brainer in investing. You put away $1 and it turns into $2 with NO RISK.

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Hawaii (fuck) You

I get what you are saying, but it's beyond that. Rents, healthcare and other expenses have risen much higher than inflation.

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Why are only 14 percent of black CPS 11th-graders proficient in English?

Just a small piece of advice. S&P 500 Index funds are great. But that is mainly large cap domestic equities in style. I would recommend putting 40% in that. Take 30% into international (good value now with the dollar strong and weak markets overseas) and the balance of the 30% in domestic small and/or mid caps.

You can't go wrong with the S&P 500 Index, but it is not broad enough to capture all of the parts of the markets. Small caps have been very hot, so you missed that massive rally. Eventually international will come back strong. But you want to capture all of that over your career.

I used to think 8% (even 11-12% which is the longer term average) was a given, but I have taken my expectations down to 6-7% prospectively. Inflation and real interest rates are lower than any one every thought possible. Inflation is also very low, so market returns are following.

I also love threads like this. Investing is my passion.

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Hawaii (fuck) You