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 Post subject: Re: What's your issue?
PostPosted: Tue Feb 14, 2017 11:24 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
FavreFan wrote:
It's going to be a matter of how we divide that surplus up between the have's and have not's.


That's already the issue. When millions more are out of work I don't see why the 1% are suddenly going to be willing to share.

Technology will eventually force them, although we may not be around to see it. Think 3d printing on larger scales.

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 Post subject: Re: What's your issue?
PostPosted: Tue Feb 14, 2017 11:29 am 
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badrogue17 wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
FavreFan wrote:
It's going to be a matter of how we divide that surplus up between the have's and have not's.


That's already the issue. When millions more are out of work I don't see why the 1% are suddenly going to be willing to share.

They're apparently going to fund more leisure activities and vacations for the rest of us :lol:

I think you guys are missing my point. Yes, the ultra rich will always live significantly better than the poor. But poor is a relative term. Think about it this way. A guy making $25,000 a year is considered poor in our country today. Yet that same person lives 100x more comfortably than the richest person in the world lived in 1900, all due to surplus and technological upgrades. The same will hold true in the future. A poor person in 2200 will live better than Bill Gates does today.

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 Post subject: Re: What's your issue?
PostPosted: Tue Feb 14, 2017 11:30 am 
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WaitingforRuffcorn wrote:
Caller Bob wrote:
FavreFan wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:

Yeah, it's not going to be like Terminator where the machines attack us militarily. The machines are going to attack us economically by taking our jobs.

That's actually going to help us economically. We aren't far from living in a world with a ridiculous surplus. It's going to be a matter of how we divide that surplus up between the have's and have not's.


I don't think the decision of "how we divide" will come peacefully.


There will likely be violence when the truckers are let go. Get used to protestors, and for more serious issues that "locker room talk".


Maybe their unions will protect them and not allow auto trucks to be used.

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 Post subject: Re: What's your issue?
PostPosted: Tue Feb 14, 2017 11:38 am 
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badrogue17 wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
FavreFan wrote:
It's going to be a matter of how we divide that surplus up between the have's and have not's.


That's already the issue. When millions more are out of work I don't see why the 1% are suddenly going to be willing to share.

They're apparently going to fund more leisure activities and vacations for the rest of us :lol:
The 1% won't be funding it but why is that funny?

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 Post subject: Re: What's your issue?
PostPosted: Tue Feb 14, 2017 11:45 am 
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FavreFan wrote:
badrogue17 wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
FavreFan wrote:
It's going to be a matter of how we divide that surplus up between the have's and have not's.


That's already the issue. When millions more are out of work I don't see why the 1% are suddenly going to be willing to share.

They're apparently going to fund more leisure activities and vacations for the rest of us :lol:

I think you guys are missing my point. Yes, the ultra rich will always live significantly better than the poor. But poor is a relative term. Think about it this way. A guy making $25,000 a year is considered poor in our country today. Yet that same person lives 100x more comfortably than the richest person in the world lived in 1900, all due to surplus and technological upgrades. The same will hold true in the future. A poor person in 2200 will live better than Bill Gates does today.


I understand that, but I think there will be major turmoil around this transition. When technology displaces a job what will we do with the person out of work? There will be thousands of them overwhelming our current systems for social services.

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 Post subject: Re: What's your issue?
PostPosted: Tue Feb 14, 2017 11:46 am 
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pittmike wrote:
WaitingforRuffcorn wrote:
Caller Bob wrote:
FavreFan wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:

Yeah, it's not going to be like Terminator where the machines attack us militarily. The machines are going to attack us economically by taking our jobs.

That's actually going to help us economically. We aren't far from living in a world with a ridiculous surplus. It's going to be a matter of how we divide that surplus up between the have's and have not's.


I don't think the decision of "how we divide" will come peacefully.


There will likely be violence when the truckers are let go. Get used to protestors, and for more serious issues that "locker room talk".


Maybe their unions will protect them and not allow auto trucks to be used.


Difficult to see how a union could be effective if their labor is not necessary.

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 Post subject: Re: What's your issue?
PostPosted: Tue Feb 14, 2017 11:57 am 
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WaitingforRuffcorn wrote:
FavreFan wrote:
badrogue17 wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
FavreFan wrote:
It's going to be a matter of how we divide that surplus up between the have's and have not's.


That's already the issue. When millions more are out of work I don't see why the 1% are suddenly going to be willing to share.

They're apparently going to fund more leisure activities and vacations for the rest of us :lol:

I think you guys are missing my point. Yes, the ultra rich will always live significantly better than the poor. But poor is a relative term. Think about it this way. A guy making $25,000 a year is considered poor in our country today. Yet that same person lives 100x more comfortably than the richest person in the world lived in 1900, all due to surplus and technological upgrades. The same will hold true in the future. A poor person in 2200 will live better than Bill Gates does today.


I understand that, but I think there will be major turmoil around this transition. When technology displaces a job what will we do with the person out of work? There will be thousands of them overwhelming our current systems for social services.

Yeah, the transition could be rocky. I'm just replying to people saying our system is already built on inequality and this will make it worse.

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 Post subject: Re: What's your issue?
PostPosted: Tue Feb 14, 2017 12:00 pm 
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FavreFan wrote:
I think you guys are missing my point. Yes, the ultra rich will always live significantly better than the poor. But poor is a relative term. Think about it this way. A guy making $25,000 a year is considered poor in our country today. Yet that same person lives 100x more comfortably than the richest person in the world lived in 1900, all due to surplus and technological upgrades. The same will hold true in the future. A poor person in 2200 will live better than Bill Gates does today.
The interesting thing too is that the benefits of being rich go down as technology and cost of living decrease. For example, air conditioning used to be just for rich people. The technology improved to the point that most people who want it can get it. Computers used to be the same way as did just about every major piece of technology.

Now, imagine a world where pretty much any basic need can be 3d printed, you don't have to own a car and instead you can just summon one with your phone, and your groceries are delivered within 30 minutes by drone. You and him have the same access to that and the costs are so low that you and him can each have as much as you want. It will be like people now that aren't jealous because Bill Gates has air conditioning. The margins between you get smaller and smaller.

Which then gets to the idea of the leisure economy. That becomes the one way to spend money when all of your basic needs are cheap. It also is hard to automate since human experience matters much more in those types of things compared to getting a cab. Also, you are working less so you have more time to enjoy yourself so more businesses can operate those types of things both locally and in vacation destinations.

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 Post subject: Re: What's your issue?
PostPosted: Tue Feb 14, 2017 12:08 pm 
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FavreFan wrote:
WaitingforRuffcorn wrote:
FavreFan wrote:
badrogue17 wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
FavreFan wrote:
It's going to be a matter of how we divide that surplus up between the have's and have not's.


That's already the issue. When millions more are out of work I don't see why the 1% are suddenly going to be willing to share.

They're apparently going to fund more leisure activities and vacations for the rest of us :lol:

I think you guys are missing my point. Yes, the ultra rich will always live significantly better than the poor. But poor is a relative term. Think about it this way. A guy making $25,000 a year is considered poor in our country today. Yet that same person lives 100x more comfortably than the richest person in the world lived in 1900, all due to surplus and technological upgrades. The same will hold true in the future. A poor person in 2200 will live better than Bill Gates does today.


I understand that, but I think there will be major turmoil around this transition. When technology displaces a job what will we do with the person out of work? There will be thousands of them overwhelming our current systems for social services.

Yeah, the transition could be rocky. I'm just replying to people saying our system is already built on inequality and this will make it worse.


Our entire system and identity is defined by our labor. I'm concerned with what will happen when we are displaced.

I heard this interview with a futurist talking about implanting chips in our brains to increase adrenaline levels and help us focus at work. The interview asked if it was safe, and was told - if they want to keep their job it might be necessary. With this type of thinking out their it's going to be difficult to convince people to share.

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 Post subject: Re: What's your issue?
PostPosted: Tue Feb 14, 2017 12:18 pm 
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I think the labor concerns are somewhat overstated. There are plenty of ways to give incentive to people to work less. People work longer hours than they need to anyways.

The bigger issue is that there are going to be many people unfit to transfer to other jobs but this happens all the time. There were people who left the workforce because they were too old or didn't want to learn how to use a computer.

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 Post subject: Re: What's your issue?
PostPosted: Tue Feb 14, 2017 12:35 pm 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
I think the labor concerns are somewhat overstated. There are plenty of ways to give incentive to people to work less. People work longer hours than they need to anyways.

The bigger issue is that there are going to be many people unfit to transfer to other jobs but this happens all the time. There were people who left the workforce because they were too old or didn't want to learn how to use a computer.


When you have millions of people suddenly without an income it's going to be a shock to the system. I do not know how society will handle it.

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 Post subject: Re: What's your issue?
PostPosted: Tue Feb 14, 2017 1:25 pm 
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WaitingforRuffcorn wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
I think the labor concerns are somewhat overstated. There are plenty of ways to give incentive to people to work less. People work longer hours than they need to anyways.

The bigger issue is that there are going to be many people unfit to transfer to other jobs but this happens all the time. There were people who left the workforce because they were too old or didn't want to learn how to use a computer.


When you have millions of people suddenly without an income it's going to be a shock to the system. I do not know how society will handle it.

The requirements for a smaller workforce is an issue that largely solves itself. We are at the point where Western countries are seeing an aging population that is retiring and where birthrates are below replacement levels.

This literally happens with every leap in technology. Just about every job that was a leader 100 years ago has been destroyed by technology and then replaced by something different. That is what will happen here. Like always, we will adapt and end up better for it in the long run.

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 Post subject: Re: What's your issue?
PostPosted: Tue Feb 14, 2017 1:31 pm 
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I do think that we are seeing some platues in technological advancement. Really, we haven't done shit in terms of space exploration since the moon landing. Factoring vehicle size, fuel economy has remained stagnant. A more recent and trivial example...the smart phone really hasn't evolved much in a decade now.


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 Post subject: Re: What's your issue?
PostPosted: Tue Feb 14, 2017 1:40 pm 
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WaitingforRuffcorn wrote:
Ogie Oglethorpe wrote:
WaitingforRuffcorn wrote:
Ogie Oglethorpe wrote:
For me it's decreasing government regulation of the free market. I'm very much in the Friedman, Hayek, Mises, and Rothbard camp


That type of thinking is going to be dead soon.

https://news.fastcompany.com/elon-musk- ... on-4030576

This gets said about every technological leap and the end result is that while some jobs get eliminated, new ones pop up to support the new technology.


Computers are already better than humans at many things, and given the rate of improvement it's not out of the question that we will have human level intelligence in the next few decades. When that hits, better than human level will happen rapidly. That's when it's really game over.

Self-driving cars will be enough to create Great Depression levels of unemployment. That disruption has already started, and by the time we vote for the next president we will already be in the first waves. People also tend to forget all of industries that will be affected by this disruption. No drivers mean no insurance for drivers. No need for all of the gas station marts, motels, or fast food places along the Interstate that cater to truckers.

In the long run there are some incredible possibilities, but the transition is likely going to be painful.
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 Post subject: Re: What's your issue?
PostPosted: Tue Feb 14, 2017 1:45 pm 
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Caller Bob wrote:
I do think that we are seeing some platues in technological advancement. Really, we haven't done shit in terms of space exploration since the moon landing. Factoring vehicle size, fuel economy has remained stagnant. A more recent and trivial example...the smart phone really hasn't evolved much in a decade now.

I would say the technology developed in the space program since has been fantastic. It's just that the propulsion is being used on probes rather than manned flights so it isn't really getting attention.

Your smart phone has evolved a lot, just look at the capabilities of the apps it runs, the quality of video streams, data, memory, etc.

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 Post subject: Re: What's your issue?
PostPosted: Tue Feb 14, 2017 1:48 pm 
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Ogie Oglethorpe wrote:
Caller Bob wrote:
I do think that we are seeing some platues in technological advancement. Really, we haven't done shit in terms of space exploration since the moon landing. Factoring vehicle size, fuel economy has remained stagnant. A more recent and trivial example...the smart phone really hasn't evolved much in a decade now.

I would say the technology developed in the space program since has been fantastic. It's just that the propulsion is being used on probes rather than manned flights so it isn't really getting attention.


Based on projections of where the space program was at in 1969, we should have had a man on the moon very shortly I believe. But the moon landing was fueled by a cold war pissing ($$)match. The fact we can only transport probes not humans is a direct indictment on the technological advancement.


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 Post subject: Re: What's your issue?
PostPosted: Tue Feb 14, 2017 1:49 pm 
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And today's smart phone is just a smaller, faster version of the original Iphone launched in 2006.


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 Post subject: Re: What's your issue?
PostPosted: Tue Feb 14, 2017 2:04 pm 
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Ogie Oglethorpe wrote:
WaitingforRuffcorn wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
I think the labor concerns are somewhat overstated. There are plenty of ways to give incentive to people to work less. People work longer hours than they need to anyways.

The bigger issue is that there are going to be many people unfit to transfer to other jobs but this happens all the time. There were people who left the workforce because they were too old or didn't want to learn how to use a computer.


When you have millions of people suddenly without an income it's going to be a shock to the system. I do not know how society will handle it.

The requirements for a smaller workforce is an issue that largely solves itself. We are at the point where Western countries are seeing an aging population that is retiring and where birthrates are below replacement levels.

This literally happens with every leap in technology. Just about every job that was a leader 100 years ago has been destroyed by technology and then replaced by something different. That is what will happen here. Like always, we will adapt and end up better for it in the long run.


It's pretty naive to say we will just adapt, and everything will workout like it has before when there has never been anything similar to the speed of this technological disruption. And we are not going to be able to retrain millions of people into new positions on the fly in a manner of whatever time they will exhaust their savings.

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 Post subject: Re: What's your issue?
PostPosted: Tue Feb 14, 2017 2:04 pm 
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Caller Bob wrote:
Ogie Oglethorpe wrote:
Caller Bob wrote:
I do think that we are seeing some platues in technological advancement. Really, we haven't done shit in terms of space exploration since the moon landing. Factoring vehicle size, fuel economy has remained stagnant. A more recent and trivial example...the smart phone really hasn't evolved much in a decade now.

I would say the technology developed in the space program since has been fantastic. It's just that the propulsion is being used on probes rather than manned flights so it isn't really getting attention.


Based on projections of where the space program was at in 1969, we should have had a man on the moon very shortly I believe. But the moon landing was fueled by a cold war pissing ($$)match. The fact we can only transport probes not humans is a direct indictment on the technological advancement.

We can transport people to mars if we wanted to. The problem is getting them back and shielding against cosmic radiation, which is less of an issue when you are within Earth orbit.

I don't think you realize how much fuel is required to get back to earth. Have you ever seen how large the Saturn V rocket is? All of that fuel and those engines were to propel an object no larger than a bedroom. Just think about the weight to payload ration involved there.

To orbit Mars, you have to lose velocity to remain below escape velocity and enter orbit. The problem is you have to have enough fuel to rebuild that velocity to get back to earth after the mission. Now you need all of that fuel in the initial ship you launch from earth and you can't use that fuel on the journey to Mars.

Are you starting to see the issues involved here?

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