Aggravated Sox fan Bob would like a word with you

OWAR, Dawson 54+, Baines 40+.

Dawson had 4 seasons with an OWAR of 5+, Baines had none. It isn't close really.

Like I said, you can argue anything that you want.

Unless you're a WAR zombie. Baines played the first ten years of his career in a park that was notoriously tough for hitters. It's clear that's not adequately accounted for in your favorite aggregate stat. And even so, over long careers Baines has a better OPS.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Matthew, Tulsi, and Don

Dawson hung around after he was done while Baines stayed productive into his 40s

Dawson still better.

Baines played 22 seasons. That's not really a great argument in favor of Dawson.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Matthew, Tulsi, and Don

Thats my point. It wouldn't be as close but Baines closed the gap by finishing so much better.

Dawson played a decade in Olympic Stadium, a pretty shitty place for hitters.

Like I said before, you can argue anything that you want really.

_________________
"He is a loathsome, offensive brute
--yet I can't look away."

Not close to Raines on percentage.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Matthew, Tulsi, and Don

Thats great. Raines was a really good player.

But I do not see how anyone who actually watched them play could say that Raines was a more effective base stealer than Henderson.

_________________
"He is a loathsome, offensive brute
--yet I can't look away."

We aren't asking who hit 60 homers three times, that isn't the question, it's who is HOF worthy, or in this case, who has the better case Thome or Sosa. I think we are in agreement here.

WAR: Thome 72.9 and Sosa 58.4. Also we know that WAR for Sosa is WAAAAAY overrated because:



So it is nice that we can put this one to bed. Thome has a vastly superior WAR, and Sosa's WAR is waaaaaay over valued.

Henderson would've never been caught if he only had to steal 40/year.

_________________
Reality is your friend, not your enemy. -- Seacrest

_________________

Easily the best leadoff hitter of my lifetime. Best base stealer too. His numbers were much more prodigious because he made far more attempts. He put the opposing pitcher and his defense under great pressure whenever he got on base. if you don't think Ricky was the best, just ask him.

_________________
Go Cubs!!!!

Because his results speak for themselves. The numbers don't lie. Every time you get caught you diminish the return.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Matthew, Tulsi, and Don

What kind of claptrap is this? First of all, nobody has to steal a base. Henderson often ran when it was pointless, even foolish to do so.

We can't be selectively SABRmetric. Of course Henderson was successful enough that his stealing was a net positive. It just wasn't as positive as Raines' results.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Matthew, Tulsi, and Don

Are you saying that the only man to hit 60+ homers in a season three times achieved something insignificant?

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Matthew, Tulsi, and Don

Game 7 of WS and you need a stolen base. Do you want Henderson or Raines on 1st base?

_________________
"He is a loathsome, offensive brute
--yet I can't look away."

That depends on who did more lines in the clubhouse before the game started.

_________________

Ultimately the manager, not the player, has control over base stealing decisions. You're saying he would have gone renegade and ignored the manager? Back then baseball management never had anyone with the most rudimentary concept of statistical probability to figure things we take for granted now.

_________________
Reality is your friend, not your enemy. -- Seacrest

Feel free to use the quote function to highlight where I said that Sosa's accomplishments are insignificant.

Let me help you out here and tell you not to look to long for it because I never said that.

The conversation is who has a better HOF case, and thereby a better career. I don't see how we aren't in agreement here. Thome has a far superior WAR to Sosa, and you yourself acknowledge that Sosa's WAR is veeeeeery overrated, further giving the advantage to Thome.

Rickey could run whenever he wanted the first 7 innings.

https://espn.go.com/page2/s/Nas/011005.html

Great article by the way

Well, except for every time you say they do.

_________________
Rick Hahn is the best GM in baseball.

Example? And please don't cite some "magic" aggregate loaded with noise as an actual number.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Matthew, Tulsi, and Don

That seems to be a suggestion that it's not very significant. Juicing aside, very few guys who ever played have a career peak as strong as Sosa. I'm not sure Thome was ever the best hitter on his own team. [Edit: I just checked. He clearly was in 2002.]

And here's the real issue with the steroids era. We're arguing about guys and we aren't really sure how good they were. Obviously his numbers are inflated, but I can't be sure Thome was really better than a guy like Richie Zisk.

If that's what IMU means by me suggesting that numbers can lie, I'll agree.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Matthew, Tulsi, and Don

Sale versus Arrieta. Their last three seasons, since I've been claiming Arrieta as the better pitcher.

Arrieta is 50-19 with a 2.42 ERA and 0.973 WHIP.

Sale is 42-25 with a 3.03 ERA and a 1.034 WHIP.

There isn't a 0.6 earned run difference between the NL and AL.

Those are some old school numbers for you. No metrics involved. Arrieta wins more games (your idea of a better pitcher) and gives up less runs, even when weighted for league (my idea of a better pitcher)

But you have Sale as the better ace. You think the numbers lie.

_________________
Rick Hahn is the best GM in baseball.

That's not quite as straight forward as comparing stolen base percentages between two guys in over 1000 attempts. There is much more "noise" involved in a relatively small sample of 80 or so starts apiece. They're facing different batters in different parks etc.

But I have no issue with you claiming Arrieta to be the better pitcher. It's a fair argument.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Matthew, Tulsi, and Don

I will put you down for Henderson as well

_________________
"He is a loathsome, offensive brute
--yet I can't look away."

IF ONLY WE HAD SOME WAY OF ANALYZING THAT

_________________
Rick Hahn is the best GM in baseball.

There's not a good way. Every park doesn't play the same way everyday. And when we're talking about 30 starts in a season and 180-200 innings, that really isn't much of a sample.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Matthew, Tulsi, and Don