There was a time when I thought Rickey was the greatest player I had ever seen. I'm certainly not saying Raines was the better player. But it's pretty clear that he was a more efficient base stealer.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Matthew, Tulsi, and Don

No it is not clear at all.

Answer the question. You need one base stolen in game 7 who you got?

_________________
"He is a loathsome, offensive brute
--yet I can't look away."

Gus Zernial was better.

_________________
Reality is your friend, not your enemy. -- Seacrest

Probably Henderson. But I also understand there's a greater chance of him getting caught.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Matthew, Tulsi, and Don

High leverage situations
SB CS %
Raines 303 62 83.01%
Henderson 427 84 83.56%

_________________
Reality is your friend, not your enemy. -- Seacrest

Not that I care either way, but why in the hell would you pick the guy that you admit has a better chance of getting thrown out?

That's like saying you'd rather play Russian roulette with a five chambered revolver as opposed to a six chambered revolver because you're a fan of prime numbers or some other nonsense.

Just because he has a lesser chance of being thrown out doesn't mean he also has a greater chance of stealing the base.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Matthew, Tulsi, and Don

What is a "high leverage" situation?

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Matthew, Tulsi, and Don

Leverage Index

Within a game, there are plays that are more pivotal than others. We attempt to quantify these plays with a stat called leverage index (LI). LI looks at the possible changes in win probability in a given situation; situations where dramatic swings in win probability are possible (e.g. runner on second late in a tie game) have higher LIs than situations where there can be no large change in win probability (e.g. late innings of a 12-run blowout).

The stat is normalized so that on average the leverage is 1.00. In tense situations, the leverage is higher than 1.00 (up to about 10) and in low-tension situations, the leverage is between 0 and 1.0.

_________________
Reality is your friend, not your enemy. -- Seacrest

It's a binary option...

JORR is saying Raines might be too timid to go unless conditions are optimal.

_________________
Reality is your friend, not your enemy. -- Seacrest

Sounds like "clutch" to me.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Matthew, Tulsi, and Don

I'm not saying he's timid, but a higher percentage suggests more selectivity regarding when to run. If we absolutely need the guy to move 90 feet as RFDC suggested, we obviously need a guy who is going to go. Jack Perconte is less likely to get caught than either of them, but he wouldn't be my go-to guy in such a situation.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Matthew, Tulsi, and Don

Uh, no.

_________________
Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Matthew, Tulsi, and Don

That's not the hypo as I understand it. The guy on first is going whether it's Cecil Fielder, Henderson, or Raines.