That's interesting stuff on the college totals Coast. My dad asked around and was told the max bet most of the books will take is 1k.

I will be giving this play out in a little while. If history is our guide on my totals, look for it to move down a few points. ( If you want to come back and middle it, you should get a few points to work with.)

531/532 Wofford-Appalachian State UNDER 135.5, 1*
I have a few reasons for liking this. First is the expected pace. Wofford runs an offense that really works to set up their three point shooters. And as the season has worn on, they are playing a slower pace as it takes more time to free up for good shots as defenses catch on to their sets. In each of the last three games, Wofford has had possessions in the 50s. Second is the history of this matchup. These teams played a 101 point grinder (100 possessions) a month ago and the last five games in this series between these teams involving several of these same players have all gone under this number. Third, these two teams are playing their third game in five days on a Thursday-Saturday-Monday schedule. Now you wouldn’t think that three games in five days is a fatigue issue, but in several teams in the SoCon have played this Thurs-Sat-Mon rotation in the last few weeks, and every game so far in which one of the teams was playing its third game in five days, all four of these games have gone under. This is the first game this season in the SoCon in which both teams are playing their third in five. Adding to the possible fatigue factor is the fact that both of these teams went OT in their games on Saturday.

Thanks, Coast.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

Thanks, Coast.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

The rest of my action for MOnday...

Take a look at the Citadel +12 vs. Elon on Monday also. They've been a covering machine lately. Citadel are bad..no question about that. But they are almost entirely freshmen and they weren't competitive early in the year. But since Jan. 1, with the power ratings set to recognize that, they've been playing much better. And tonight they are playing the one team in the conference that isn't decidedly more talented.

Also have more than a rooting interest in UIC. They had Valpo down at half and then had their worst half of the season and lost. I think they get the job done at home tonight.

USF-USD under also may be worth a look. It's not a strong play, but I do like it. Sutton's team has been playing slower and slower and better and better D. I'm in SF and I'll be on the hill toinght for that one. If it looks like it might go over, maybe I'll pull out my laser pointer and fog horn when somebody is shooting FTs. If you dont hear from me for awhile it might mean I need bail from a SF jail.

Appie shoots 54% for the game and 53% from trey...and I lose by three. This stuff is getting old. If I take a team under, they have a lights out shooting game. And if I take an over, one team pees down their leg. Unbelievable.

I was listening to the game on Sirius. In the second half, Wofford just ran out of gas. Appy got every rebound, every loose ball, and were running most of the half.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
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Tuesday, 2/19
DePaul-Conn UNDER 69 first half
Under 147.5, 1*
A buddy of mine who follows DP closely turned me on to this angle, and I like it. DePaul's inside game is so important to them but Koshwal et al are going to be neutralized tonight. Meet Thabeet. If the Demons' inside game doesn't get them the rebounds, put backs and points in the paint, then the Demons are going to have to fire away with jumpers. Good luck with that. This could get ugly, but I'm not inclined to lay wood with a UConn team that goes into spells that leaves the back door wide open.

Two easy winners, thanks Coast.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

Thursday

LaSalle-Dayton OVER 142.5, 1*
LaSalle is a pretty predictable run and shoot kind of team that doesn’t play great defense. To wit, the Explorers’ pace is in the top 50 in the nation at 71 possessions/game, and their defense has given up over 100 DE to almost every opponent this year except the really lame offenses like Bonnie and GW. Dayton’s overall pace is on the slowish side, but they are a very efficient offensive team and their defense has dropped off considerably lately. Dayton built an impressive defensive efficiency number early in the season, but has given up over 100 DE in 8 of their last 9 games, with only St. Louis falling under the Mendoza line in that game when they scored only 36 points at Dayton.
Clearly the Flyers are not defending as they were against the preconference cupcakes. Against fast teams like UMAss, Dayton has shown they will go up and down. They did slow down Duquesne and Rhode Island, but that was perhaps due to the quality of those teams. Dayton should find much better scoring chances against a bad LaSalle D enabling them to find shots early in the clock. Last year, a similar slowish Dayton team played a 136 possession game vs. LaSalle. This year’s LaSalle team is more explosive offensively. The Explorers have averaged 108 OE in their A10 games. LaSalle games are becoming somewhat predictable...except for three A10 games (one against strong defense X , one of their two games against bad offense St. Bonnie and the very weird GW game that I lost) every LaSalle A10 game has gone over this number. With an expected pace of 138 possessions and both teams at 108 OE, I make this number 148.

Losing Chris Wright, who is still out, was really the key to these trends.

Yes it is, NSJ. You know your Flyers.

Also like South Alabama-Western Kentucky over 144 tonight. No time for a writeup though. GL.

Coast, are OVER/UNDER bets still valid in OT?

Yep.

Yes they are and after some really bad luck lately i'll take the good luck of OT tonight in the LaSalle game. Unreal bad shooting from Western at home tonight loses that one. splitsville for me.

It is bracket buster weekend and I'm going to give you two angles to look at, but please, don't post this anywhere else. I don't want the whole world to know about these angles. And if you are going to bet these, please don't make max bets of $2k per side or $500 per total and move the numbers until Saturday morning...after I've had the chance to get my plays in.

I figured these out a few years ago and have been playing them with my partner in Vegas. This has been our secret for a few years and I want to keep it that way. I'm not promising this is going to be profitable tomorrow, but I'm confident enough in them and their win rates over the last few years to share them with you. I'm going to be hitting them all tomorrow.

I have had some computer issues over the last year and don't have all my historical data on the winning % of these two angles with me now, but I hope to get that data from my partner and post it tonight.

1) Take any bracketbuster game with a total under 125 to go OVER the total. Here is the logic: Games with totals under 125 typically involve grinder-style teams that play slow, deliberate or have good defenses. All these teams have been playing conference games in which the opponents know each others' stuff very well. Conference games in many conferences skew more to lower scores as the season wears on. However, on these special bracketbuster games, the offensive efficiency of these teams is going to be higher going against teams that haven't faced their offensive sets before. This angle doesn't apply early in the season before conference play because it's so early in the season and many teams simply don't have their offenses in gear yet. And while it could apply in the post-season tourneys, it usually doesn't because the tourney pressure slows many teams down. But these bracketbuster matchups are one game opportunities in which teams are in gear offensively with no postseason pressure and they get to face teams that don't know their sets.

2) Take any road underdog that is +3.5 or less. Logic: Linesmakers use a standard 4 point home court advantage in setting the lines for most games this weekend. Thus, a team that is a dog of less than 4 points is actually the "better" team with the higher power rating. These "better teams" have historically covered these games at a high rate.

2/22
CBB @ CSFMB 1-2

Princeton/Harvard Under 124.5

Princeton plays at one of the slowest paces in college basketball. Harvard will try to speed things up but both teams' offensive efficiency is poor. I'm on this @ 125 but still like it at the current number. . .

I got this from another forum. These are stats from bracketbuster games

Double Digit dogs (18-9) 67%

Totals of 144.5 or lower OVER is (60-27) 69%

Road dogs of +1 to +3.5 (25-7) 78%

_________________
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<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
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I guess I'm not the only one who has figured this out. Damn.

Coast, what is your take on the UCSB/Utah State game? The line opened at UCSB +5, but is down to 4, and even 3.5 in some places. How does this fit your formula ?

_________________
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<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
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What is a bracketbuster game ?

In general it is two mid-majors who get to play a game against eachother on national tv to try and increase exposure and give one of the others a quality win.

Teams like Southern Illinois, Butler, Creighton, Gonzaga, and other teams are highlighted. It is a way for them to look better in the eyes of the NCAA tournament committee and in some cases the games are the difference between who gets into the NCAA tournament and who doesn't.

It's a creation of ESPN but a good thing for college basketball(unlike most things about ESPN).

_________________
You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

Chus, what forum did you find that? I guess either other people figured out what I did or somebody I talked to in previous years published it. I'd like to know if it's the latter...

eog

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
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Any coming up this weekend ?

Thanks. I'm almost certain the guy who posted that got it from my partner in Vegas with the proviso he NOT post it on a well-travelled gamblers board like EOG. Oh well.

Ok. Here are my numbers, which are a little different than that...

3.5 point or less road dogs are 27-9 and 26 of the 27 dog winners have won outright. This goes by the closing numbers, so if 3.5 becomes the most widely available number on UCSB prior to game time, I'd play it. At an opener of 4.5, the linesmaker says these teams are even or USU is .5 pt. better on a neutral. At any rate, I'd probably play it anyway even if it ultimately doesn't fit the system by closing at a higher number.

125 and under totals have gone 15-6 to the over, 71%, in the 5-year history of the BB games. (6-3 last year).

Here is a list of them.

http://www.oreillyespnubracketbusters.com/press2.html

Drake and Butler is the best matchup between them and both teams are dangerous for the NCAA tournament(and both are pretty much locked in).

For local flavor, the Illinois State game should allow you to check out a high quality team from Illinois.

These teams were pretty much all hand picked by ESPN for good matchups and in most case it ends up with good games.

_________________
You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

Coast,
FYI. Rumors are all around that Indiana will have 7 players next game, and everyone who is good except Gordon skipped practice today.

May affect the outcome of tomorrow's IU/NU game just in case you were going to be making a play on that.

Edit:Sampson says he wants them to play. I would stay away.

_________________
You do not talk to me like that! I work too hard to deal with this stuff! I work too hard! I'm an important member of the CSFMB! I drive a Dodge Stratus!

Does this mean that you make ML wagers on the dogs as well ?

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

yes I'm thinking about whether i should just play MLs, or taking points and putting 1/4 or 1/3 of the bet amount on the ml. Haven't decided yet.

Here is the betting rotation for tomorrow's games. (There are two BB games tonight).

815 VA COMMONWEALTH
C: 10:00AM
816 AKRON

817 LOYOLA CHICAGO
C: 12:00PM
818 WILLIAM & MARY

819 GEORGE MASON
C: 12:00PM
820 OHIO

821 NIAGARA
C: 12:00PM
822 APPALACHIAN STATE

823 UC DAVIS
C: 12:00PM
824 LOYOLA MARYLAND

825 WICHITA STATE
C: 1:00PM
826 NORTHERN ARIZONA

827 MOREHEAD STATE
C: 1:00PM
828 JAMES MADISON

829 HOFSTRA
C: 1:00PM
830 IONA

831 BOSTON U
C: 1:00PM
832 ST. PETER'S

833 CREIGHTON
C: 2:00PM
834 ORAL ROBERTS

835 TENNESSEE TECH
C: 3:00PM
836 EAST TENN STATE

837 NORTHEASTERN
C: 3:00PM
838 HOLY CROSS

839 HIGH POINT
C: 3:00PM
840 TOWSON

841 FAIRFIELD
C: 3:00PM
842 DREXEL

843 SE MISSOURI STATE
C: 3:00PM
844 EASTERN MICHIGAN

845 YOUNGSTOWN STATE
C: 3:00PM
846 BUFFALO

847 BINGHAMTON
C: 3:00PM
848 MANHATTAN

849 BOWLING GREEN
C: 3:00PM
850 DETROIT

851 NEVADA
C: 3:30PM
852 SOUTHERN ILLINOIS

853 DRAKE
C: 4:00PM
854 BUTLER

855 MIAMI OHIO
C: 5:00PM
856 VALPARAISO

857 MARIST
C: 5:30PM
858 CLEVELAND STATE

859 BUCKNELL
C: 6:00PM
860 OLD DOMINION

861 VERMONT
C: 6:00PM
862 NC WILMINGTON

863 DELAWARE
C: 6:00PM
864 TOLEDO

865 BALL STATE
C: 6:00PM
866 EASTERN KENTUCKY

867 TENNESSEE MARTIN
C: 6:00PM
868 ELON

869 INDIANA STATE
C: 6:00PM
870 MURRAY STATE

871 ALBANY
C: 6:30PM
872 CANISIUS

873 ILLINOIS CHICAGO
C: 7:00PM
874 NORTHERN IOWA

875 WESTERN MICHIGAN
C: 7:00PM
876 WISC GREEN BAY

877 GEORGIA SOUTHERN
C: 7:00PM
878 AUSTIN PEAY

879 CENTRAL MICHIGAN
C: 7:00PM
880 MISSOURI STATE

881 HAWAII
C: 7:00PM
882 CAL RIVERSIDE

883 SAMFORD
C: 7:00PM
884 LOUISIANA TECH

885 EVANSVILLE
M C: 7:00PM
886 EASTERN ILLINOIS

887 GEORGIA STATE
C: 7:00PM
888 JACKSONVILLE STATE

889 RIDER
C: 8:00PM
890 CS NORTHRIDGE

891 WISC MILWAUKEE
C: 8:00PM
892 BRADLEY

893 LONG BEACH STATE
C: 8:00PM
894 NEW MEXICO STATE

895 SIENA
C: 9:00PM
896 BOISE STATE

897 SAN JOSE STATE
C: 9:00PM
898 PACIFIC

899 CAL POLY SLO
C: 9:00PM
900 FRESNO STATE

901 IDAHO
C: 9:00PM
902 CAL IRVINE

903 PORTLAND STATE
C: 9:30PM
904 CS FULLERTON

905 KENT STATE
C: 11:00PM
906 SAINT MARYS CA