Some offshores are up to 168.5. I am glad that I was able to get 164.

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

Just like Coast predicted, it is down to 166

_________________
Good people drink good beer - Hunter S. Thompson

<º)))><

Waiting for the time when I can finally say
That this has all been wonderful, but now I'm on my way

Predicting line moves and setting up middles is the day trading part of my job

80 possessions in the first half of LaSalle-Duquesne, but the Dukes are shooting 36%. 7 points under par at half (75) but no worries.

Monday
716 UW Milwaukee -1.5 vs. Valparaiso, 1*
For an above-average team (70 or above on my power rating system), Valpo has a significant home/road disparity in performance. If you define a decent offensive performance as 100 OE (1 point/possession), then Valpo hasn't had a decent offensive game on the road since the first week of December. Back then, they went on the road and won at Detroit and Wright as those teams were still finding their games. Since then, Valpo has consistently been 94-97 in OE on the road. Milwaukee has lost only one home game since it remade its team by kicking off a few guys Jan. 3. And that one loss was to Butler. They have lost 5 of their last 6, but four of those were on the road and the other one was Butler. Looks like a good spot for the home team to recpature their mojo against a team that has been inefficient on the road. The fact that Valpo played a 2 OT game against Miami-O Saturday night doesn't hurt either.

Also playing (smaller):
Marquette-Nova OVER 141.5
Texas-K State OVER 147
Milwaukee-Valpo UNDER 138

I liked UWM before, but I like them more now that you are on them.

UWM already beat Valpo at Valpo, and Valpo is 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11.

Milwaukee's two best players were injured in the first few minutes of the game. They are a thin team anyway, and then to lose your best inside player and best shooter is not good.

795/796 Baylor-Colorado UNDER 67, 1st half, 1*
Colorado runs the Princeton offense of sorts and has been successful at playing almost every Big 12 game at their pace. Baylor will certainly try to push the pace, but Colorado has shown it will play its game. Baylor is the fastest-paced team in the Big 12 at 72.6 possessions/game, but for comparison purposes, Missouri, K State, KU and Texas Tech are all running above 69 possessions/game. When Colorado played these four teams, the total number of possessions = have been 132, 122, 122, 122, 122 142 and 110. Only one of these games (the 142 possession game vs. Texas Tech) went over this total of 142, with a few of them staying way under. One of the reasons is that Colorado is not a very good team offensively, even at home. Of course, they aren’t very good defensively either, so I’m relying on them controlling tempo much more than I’m relying on their defensive ability. They might find themselves down in this game and need to play some catchup in the 2nd half. There also is the possibility of a late game foul fest. But for the first half at least, I expect the game to be competitive and for Colorado to chew a fair amount of clock with each possession.

LaSalle +5 @ Fordham, 1*
The Explorers are improving at a significant rate, with their offense and offensive efficiency the main reason. They have had only two A-10 games in which they have failed to reach 100 OE (1 point/possession) and that was their first conference game of the year vs. Richmond and the game against the best team in the conference, X. LaSalle has won five of its last 6, including wins against GW (road), St. Joes (neutral) and Duquesne (road). While LaSalle’s power rating using the full season results would make this a fair number, the question I have is whether we should move LaSalle up a bit more than we ordinarily might do based on their recent form. Conversely, Fordham is a team that has struggled to score against the same opponents that LaSalle has shredded on the offensive end. While LaSalle has exceeded 100 OE in 10 of its 12 A-10 games, Fordham has done that in only 5 of its 12 A-10 games. And Fordham isn’t significantly better than the Explorers defensively either, giving up over 100 OE in 9 of its 12 conference games. LaSalle has given up 100 OE to its opponents in 7 of its 12. Home court advantage is the difference here and the reason for the line, but the Explorers have shown recently they can win on the road. Their power rating is rising. The question is how high will it go. Based on recent form, I think it might even go higher and a few weeks from now if they play each other in the conference tourney on a neutral court, LaSalle might just be favored. I’ll take the hot dog here.

What do you think about Baylor -3 ? Colorado is not deep, and I don't know if they can handle Baylor's guards. I know laying road chalk isn't always the best idea, but if Baylor loses here, it is NIT for them.

2 more easy winners. Thanks, Coast !

sorry Chus, I was out of pocket all night. Playing Baylor would have been ok for the reasons you suggested, but laying points on the road is not something I do but once or twice a year. So it's not a situation I would have recommended. If you did it, great.

LSU -2, -120 vs. Alabama, 1*
LSU has won three straight and these Ws have been due in large measure to the Tigers cranking up their defensive intensity, with three straight games holding opponents under 90 OE. LSU is now 5th in the SEC in defensive efficiency, but had they been playing all year like they’ve played lately, they would be in the top 2. Bama has struggled against good defenses this year, with poor offensive efficiency at Mississippi State, Kentucky and Arkansas. In fact, Bama hasn’t just struggled against good defenses; the Tide have not won an SEC road game all season. Conversely, Bama is the 2nd worst defense in the SEC and has had pretty bad defensive efficiencies of 128, 127 and 112 in their last three road games. LSU looks like it might be playing its best ball of the season right now. I’ll take the hot team. As I usually do, I bought the half when a small number is on the half. If you don't like to do that, -2.5 is fine.

I had a lot of leans on totals tonight, but pulled the trigger only on Denver-Nawlins under 124.5. Bought that last night, but that number is long gone today.

LSU solid winner, thanks.

Like Michigan St. -1 tomorrow at Illinois. Though I think Michigan St isn't that good, Illinois is just that bad, and have packed it in for the season. Should be a double digit winner.