Oh, that's his last 257 starts? Okay. Again, you're not making your argument by trying to compare guys like Carrasco who pitched in some historically low scoring seasons vs. guys who threw in the heart of the steroid era. Chris Archer dreams about having as good a career as Kenny Rogers.

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Ecclesiastes 5:8

That's why I included ERA+, and would have included FIP- if Baseball Reference kept it as a stat (I guess I still could, but I'm lazy). ERA+ is designed to be comparable across multiple and disparate run environments. Kenny Rogers was about average in the juiced era, and "won" 57% of his games. Carlos Carrasco has been much better than average in the more modern run environment, but has a losing record. I'll take the guy outperforming the league in peripheral stats, given the undeniable relationship between run support and W/L%.

I don't think that's true. It may attempt that but it does a piss poor job. All ERA+ is really good for is comparing a guy to the average pitcher in his league over the time he pitched.

Regardless, I understand that current conventional wisdom is that a pitcher is simply a victim of his W/L record. I simply don't believe that to be the case. All those peripherals simply show the capabilities of a guy like Carlos Carrasco, his toolbox if you will. I don't dispute the talent of guys like Quintana or Carrasco. Javier Vazquez was obviously a more talented pitcher than Mark Buehrle. But Buehrle knew how to deploy the talent he had to maximize it.

There's more to pitching a baseball game than just throwing your nasty slider and overpowering fastball. Guys with nasty sliders and overpowering fastballs are likely to have positive peripherals. They're starting with a huge advantage over the Buehrles and Moyers of the world. But a pitcher has to be able to throw the ball where he wants to in a tight spot. Everybody misses sometimes. Even Lamar Hoyt and Greg Maddux.

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Ecclesiastes 5:8

I'll take the free money. Do we have a deal?

Edit: what's "healthy"? Can we say 25 starts is sufficient?

_________________
Fare you well, fare you well
I love you more than words can tell
Listen to the river sing sweet songs
To rock my soul

$200 that Quintana will be multiple game over .500 for the season? Of course we have a deal.

_________________
Be well

GO BEARS!!!

Ok. Does the 25 start qualifier sound good?

You must be confident to be making this at 0-2. You're saying he's gonna go at least 4 games over .500 from here on out.

_________________
Fare you well, fare you well
I love you more than words can tell
Listen to the river sing sweet songs
To rock my soul

25 starts is perfectly fine.

_________________
Be well

GO BEARS!!!

Of course I am confident. Now I'm invested in him beyond the annual arguments with JORR.

_________________
Be well

GO BEARS!!!

Good deal.

_________________
Fare you well, fare you well
I love you more than words can tell
Listen to the river sing sweet songs
To rock my soul

6 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 2 BB's, 10 K's

He also did an outstanding job telling Avi to hit a home run and the bullpen to get the last 9 outs.

Pitched the game that was in front of him. Also, he was taken out at 99 pitches. For a May game, with 10 K's, that's about par for the course.

That's right. What other game could he pitch. Pitchers pitch the games they're in. Not theoretical games where they get more "run support".

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Ecclesiastes 5:8

7 Innings of 3-hit ball so far tonight. 6 K's and 1 BB.

Final line: 8 IP, 4H, 2BB, 7K

Got the run support, will get the win if the bullpen doesn't blow it.

Amazing how good he pitches when he does not give up 5 runs in the first

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"He is a loathsome, offensive brute
--yet I can't look away."

Hopefully he finally realizes his potential and finishes the season 12-11

_________________
Fare you well, fare you well
I love you more than words can tell
Listen to the river sing sweet songs
To rock my soul

I know I've asked this before but who gives a shit. Has a guy who strikes out 12 over 8 innings with two earned runs pitched a worse game than his counterpart who pitched 4 innings with seven walks and one earned run?

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Maybe the umpire working the plate in the game where the guy struck out 12 had a huge strikezone and the other plate umpire was squeezing the shit out of the pitchers. Performance does not exist outside the game in which it occurred.

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Ecclesiastes 5:8

In the scenario I was describing the pitchers were opposing one another in the same game.

Still your response implies that things outside a pitcher's control have a decisive impact on the game in which they pitch.

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Things outside every human being's control have a decisive impact on their lives. So what?

But if those guys were pitching in the same game then I'd say the guy who covered twice as many innings while allowing the same ERA pitched better. It's not complicated.

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Ecclesiastes 5:8

But he lost.

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Gibberish.

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"Play until it hurts, then play until it hurts to not play."
http://soundcloud.com/darkside124 HOF 2013, MM Champion 2014

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What's actually gibberish is the crazy idea that a performance can somehow be transferred to a different game where a pitcher's team scores more runs. If I could move points around like that I'd make the Bears 15-1 every season.

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Ecclesiastes 5:8

So? Sometimes you pitch well and lose. Sometimes you get lucky and win. That's why you need a large enough sample.

Just because you go 7 for 17 in the World Series it doesn't make you a great hitter either.

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Ecclesiastes 5:8

I would say you showed up for a big game. I wouldn't say clutch unless you had some big RBIs or won games because of an RBI.

The 30 Years War was a pretty reasonable time frame to achieve peace, in retrospect.

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O judgment! Thou art fled to brutish beasts,
And men have lost their reason.