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PostPosted: Fri Jul 14, 2017 5:28 pm 
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Curious Hair wrote:
Isn't there way more risk on the Cubs? They gave up a lot for an okay pitcher. If the prospects pan out, the Sox get a lot, if they don't, well, they weren't winning anything with Quintana anyway.


this. Plus the opportunity cost places more risk on the Cubs. True price/cost of anything is the value of the next best alternative forgone. Cubs could've had Verlander; not sure what they offered, but IF they offered the package the White Sox got...Tiger fans should be pitchfork-and-torching their way to Alex Avila's dad's office and demanding his resignation.

Verlander's ERA this season isn't much different than Quintana's. And if you adjust for JV getting blown up a couple times by his recent kryptonite Cleveland, Verlander's ERA adjusts down to around 3.75--which is beyond decent in the AL this season of home runs.

Plus, Verlander has post-season experience--7-5 in about 100 innings @ 3.40 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in the post-season for Verlander. Quintana's never pitched in October.


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PostPosted: Fri Jul 14, 2017 5:32 pm 
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Hussra wrote:
Curious Hair wrote:
Isn't there way more risk on the Cubs? They gave up a lot for an okay pitcher. If the prospects pan out, the Sox get a lot, if they don't, well, they weren't winning anything with Quintana anyway.


this. Plus the opportunity cost places more risk on the Cubs. True price/cost of anything is the value of the next best alternative forgone. Cubs could've had Verlander; not sure what they offered, but IF they offered the package the White Sox got...Tiger fans should be pitchfork-and-torching their way to Alex Avila's dad's office and demanding his resignation.

Verlander's ERA this season isn't much different than Quintana's. And if you adjust for JV getting blown up a couple times by his recent kryptonite Cleveland, Verlander's ERA adjusts down to around 3.75--which is beyond decent in the AL this season of home runs.

Plus, Verlander has post-season experience--7-5 in about 100 innings @ 3.40 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in the post-season for Verlander. Quintana's never pitched in October.


But Verlander is 5 or 6 years older and the money is triple per season. So Quintana's deal gives the Cubs flexibility to sign another pitcher in the offseason. No way the Cubs offered the Tigers what they offered the Sox. Tigers don't even expect that type of offer. It's a money dump for the Tigers. They're not getting stud prospects for an older pitcher in decline when he's making 25 million per year for 2 or 3 more seasons.


Last edited by Beardown on Fri Jul 14, 2017 5:48 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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PostPosted: Fri Jul 14, 2017 5:32 pm 
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badrogue17 wrote:
Ron Wolfley wrote:
Jason and Dan aren't Barstool fans.

Shocking.


How did Barstool get brought up? Figures the snowflake station hates Barstool, it's the SJW way.


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PostPosted: Fri Jul 14, 2017 6:03 pm 
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SirTinkleButton wrote:
badrogue17 wrote:
Ron Wolfley wrote:
Jason and Dan aren't Barstool fans.

Shocking.


How did Barstool get brought up? Figures the snowflake station hates Barstool, it's the SJW way.


Ask Us Anything Friday Fung. The segment wasn't fun.


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PostPosted: Fri Jul 14, 2017 6:17 pm 
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Curious Hair wrote:
Isn't there way more risk on the Cubs? They gave up a lot for an okay pitcher. If the prospects pan out, the Sox get a lot, if they don't, well, they weren't winning anything with Quintana anyway.


Quintana is a lot better than an OK pitcher. He's a good #2 and a great #3 in a rotation. Fangraphs did a comparison and he's been Jon Lester the last 3 years and now he's going to the National League. How much and how many years would Quintana get on the open market? The Cubs will get 3.5 prime years of Quintana for half the yearly pay he'd get on the open market AND there are no bad years at the end. This isn't signing a pitcher for a 6 year deal at 31 year old.

If you measure risk in terms of getting what they want, the Cubs have a lot less risk in this trade. What's Quinatana's floor- a #4 pitcher while there is a good chance he is a very solid, #2 pitcher. On the other hand, the range of possibilities for the Sox haul is much greater. Prospects flop all the time. Pitchers in the minors get injured all the time. If Jimenez and Cease reach their full potential the Sox will definitely win this trade BUT statistically the odds of this are low. And because baseball guys know all this, I view this as a safe, logical trade for both sides. I would guess that this is more what Bernstein was getting at when he said there is no risk.

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PostPosted: Fri Jul 14, 2017 6:31 pm 
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DAC wrote:
Curious Hair wrote:
Isn't there way more risk on the Cubs? They gave up a lot for an okay pitcher. If the prospects pan out, the Sox get a lot, if they don't, well, they weren't winning anything with Quintana anyway.


Quintana is a lot better than an OK pitcher. He's a good #2 and a great #3 in a rotation. Fangraphs did a comparison and he's been Jon Lester the last 3 years and now he's going to the National League. How much and how many years would Quintana get on the open market? The Cubs will get 3.5 prime years of Quintana for half the yearly pay he'd get on the open market AND there are no bad years at the end. This isn't signing a pitcher for a 6 year deal at 31 year old.

If you measure risk in terms of getting what they want, the Cubs have a lot less risk in this trade. What's Quinatana's floor- a #4 pitcher while there is a good chance he is a very solid, #2 pitcher. On the other hand, the range of possibilities for the Sox haul is much greater. Prospects flop all the time. Pitchers in the minors get injured all the time. If Jimenez and Cease reach their full potential the Sox will definitely win this trade BUT statistically the odds of this are low. And because baseball guys know all this, I view this as a safe, logical trade for both sides. I would guess that this is more what Bernstein was getting at when he said there is no risk.


If Cease and Jimenez are HOFers and the Cubs get 1 or 2 World Series in the next 4 years because Quintana helped them do so then the Cubs win the trade and the Sox win the trade.


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PostPosted: Fri Jul 14, 2017 6:46 pm 
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There's nothing in Quintanas history to suggest he'll be a major contributor to any hypothetical future World Series the Cubs won't even be in.

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PostPosted: Fri Jul 14, 2017 8:07 pm 
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badrogue17 wrote:
There's nothing in Quintanas history to suggest he'll be a major contributor to any hypothetical future World Series the Cubs won't even be in.


Hypothetical Jose Qunitana>Hypothetical Jay Cutler

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PostPosted: Fri Jul 14, 2017 8:44 pm 
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badrogue17 wrote:
There's nothing in Quintanas history to suggest he'll be a major contributor to any hypothetical future World Series the Cubs won't even be in.


Let's say the Cubs win 9 out of the 12 or 13 starts he has with the Cubs the rest of this regular season. And they beat the Brewers by one game to win the division. Even if he is average or bad in the playoffs he helped get them there. So if they lose his starts in the playoff rounds but the offense and other pitchers pick him up to win the World Series, he helped them win a World Series because they wouldn't have made the playoffs without him.


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PostPosted: Fri Jul 14, 2017 9:22 pm 
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Ron Wolfley wrote:
SirTinkleButton wrote:
badrogue17 wrote:
Ron Wolfley wrote:
Jason and Dan aren't Barstool fans.

Shocking.


How did Barstool get brought up? Figures the snowflake station hates Barstool, it's the SJW way.


Ask Us Anything Friday Fung. The segment wasn't fun.


You are not kidding. What a shit show. Awful. Goff blathering about how some people who do radio think it's a birthright, but not him. Nuh uh. Best believe he appreciates, especially after what he went through in Atlanta.

Goff is awful. Really bad. I've never heard a bigger wannabe on the radio, and I've heard dozens of complete asshats wander their way across Chicago airwaves.

During the bit he said that the most annoying voice on Chicago radio, well, uh, well, y'know, this is going to sound lame, but he can't stand hearing his own voice. Doesn't like it. Riiiiiiiiiiight, the guy literally cannot shut up when the mics are hot - but he's the guy who doesn't like to hear his own voice.

Listen to anything long enough and you'll get annoyed. Was true with radio for years, and now is true with the endless amount of podcasts that you first fall in love with - then start to sour on. But Goff, man, he burnt through the honeymoon period pretty quick. He's somehow more annoying than Dan, and really has demonstrated just how big of a draw Boers was ... even in his latter, nodding-head, days he proved to be enough to make you stick through the ever important Bernstein. Now, with him gone, and Best Believe Goff as the only offset? Yah, no.


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PostPosted: Fri Jul 14, 2017 9:47 pm 
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Harry Seaward wrote:
Ron Wolfley wrote:
SirTinkleButton wrote:
badrogue17 wrote:
Ron Wolfley wrote:
Jason and Dan aren't Barstool fans.

Shocking.


How did Barstool get brought up? Figures the snowflake station hates Barstool, it's the SJW way.


Ask Us Anything Friday Fung. The segment wasn't fun.


You are not kidding. What a shit show. Awful. Goff blathering about how some people who do radio think it's a birthright, but not him. Nuh uh. Best believe he appreciates, especially after what he went through in Atlanta.

Goff is awful. Really bad. I've never heard a bigger wannabe on the radio, and I've heard dozens of complete asshats wander their way across Chicago airwaves.

During the bit he said that the most annoying voice on Chicago radio, well, uh, well, y'know, this is going to sound lame, but he can't stand hearing his own voice. Doesn't like it. Riiiiiiiiiiight, the guy literally cannot shut up when the mics are hot - but he's the guy who doesn't like to hear his own voice.

Listen to anything long enough and you'll get annoyed. Was true with radio for years, and now is true with the endless amount of podcasts that you first fall in love with - then start to sour on. But Goff, man, he burnt through the honeymoon period pretty quick. He's somehow more annoying than Dan, and really has demonstrated just how big of a draw Boers was ... even in his latter, nodding-head, days he proved to be enough to make you stick through the ever important Bernstein. Now, with him gone, and Best Believe Goff as the only offset? Yah, no.


This is right. Dan is Dan, but Terry made the show worth listening to even when he didn't give a damn anymore. Dan is still Dan, but Goff just doesn't offer anything worth listening to.

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PostPosted: Fri Jul 14, 2017 10:25 pm 
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Curious Hair wrote:
I watch sports standing up but scripted shows sitting down. I bet he paces too.



I might of walked 3-4 miles during each World Series game. Hockey games are hard to sit during fit ne yo. Lots of pacing.


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PostPosted: Fri Jul 14, 2017 11:05 pm 
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DAC wrote:
Curious Hair wrote:
Isn't there way more risk on the Cubs? They gave up a lot for an okay pitcher. If the prospects pan out, the Sox get a lot, if they don't, well, they weren't winning anything with Quintana anyway.


Quintana is a lot better than an OK pitcher. He's a good #2 and a great #3 in a rotation. Fangraphs did a comparison and he's been Jon Lester the last 3 years and now he's going to the National League. How much and how many years would Quintana get on the open market? The Cubs will get 3.5 prime years of Quintana for half the yearly pay he'd get on the open market AND there are no bad years at the end. This isn't signing a pitcher for a 6 year deal at 31 year old.

If you measure risk in terms of getting what they want, the Cubs have a lot less risk in this trade. What's Quinatana's floor- a #4 pitcher while there is a good chance he is a very solid, #2 pitcher. On the other hand, the range of possibilities for the Sox haul is much greater. Prospects flop all the time. Pitchers in the minors get injured all the time. If Jimenez and Cease reach their full potential the Sox will definitely win this trade BUT statistically the odds of this are low. And because baseball guys know all this, I view this as a safe, logical trade for both sides. I would guess that this is more what Bernstein was getting at when he said there is no risk.

:lol:

Heard this a few times since the FG article and it's still amusing. This is exactly why W/L does have meaning. Without it, you'll convince yourself Quintana is as good as Jon Lester

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PostPosted: Fri Jul 14, 2017 11:18 pm 
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Goff's laughing is killing this show. I guess we'll see what happens in January once the Cubs have been done a while and the show needs to stand on its own.

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PostPosted: Fri Jul 14, 2017 11:24 pm 
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DAC wrote:
Quintana is a lot better than an OK pitcher. He's a good #2 and a great #3 in a rotation.

Everyone keeps saying this, but it doesn't make much sense to me. If there are 30 teams in the MLB, that means there are 30 #1 starters. Now, they aren't all perfectly spread about the league, maybe one team has two #1s and another one has 0, but there have to be 30 #1 starters. There can't just be 10 #1 starters in a league with 30 teams.... if that is the case, there needs to be another term applied other than "#1 starter", something like "ace" or "great #1 guy." So if you say he is a good #2 starter, that means there are probably around 10 out of the 30 #2 starters that are better. That makes Quintana the 40th best or worst starter in the majors. I would love to see this list of 40 starters that are better than Quintana.

I really think when people say #1 starter they mean a top 10 pitcher in MLB, and a #2 starter is a top 20 pitcher.

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PostPosted: Fri Jul 14, 2017 11:32 pm 
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newper wrote:
DAC wrote:
Quintana is a lot better than an OK pitcher. He's a good #2 and a great #3 in a rotation.

Everyone keeps saying this, but it doesn't make much sense to me. If there are 30 teams in the MLB, that means there are 30 #1 starters. Now, they aren't all perfectly spread about the league, maybe one team has two #1s and another one has 0, but there have to be 30 #1 starters. There can't just be 10 #1 starters in a league with 30 teams.... if that is the case, there needs to be another term applied other than "#1 starter", something like "ace" or "great #1 guy." So if you say he is a good #2 starter, that means there are probably around 10 out of the 30 #2 starters that are better. That makes Quintana the 40th best or worst starter in the majors. I would love to see this list of 40 starters that are better than Quintana.

I really think when people say #1 starter they mean a top 10 pitcher in MLB, and a #2 starter is a top 20 pitcher.

I think it's just implied that they mean on a good team. Half the league has abysmal rotations.

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PostPosted: Fri Jul 14, 2017 11:45 pm 
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FavreFan wrote:
I think it's just implied that they mean on a good team. Half the league has abysmal rotations.

Yeah, I guess so... if you look at it that way, you would almost never be able to acquire a #1 starter though because they would be too valuable to trade, and a #2 starter would be almost equally as rare.

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PostPosted: Fri Jul 14, 2017 11:52 pm 
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newper wrote:
FavreFan wrote:
I think it's just implied that they mean on a good team. Half the league has abysmal rotations.

Yeah, I guess so... if you look at it that way, you would almost never be able to acquire a #1 starter though because they would be too valuable to trade, and a #2 starter would be almost equally as rare.

Sale is a legit ace on a title contender and just got moved. I agree it's pretty rare, as it should be. Franchise QBs hardly ever get moved either.

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PostPosted: Sat Jul 15, 2017 6:42 am 
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FavreFan wrote:

Heard this a few times since the FG article and it's still amusing. This is exactly why W/L does have meaning. Without it, you'll convince yourself Quintana is as good as Jon Lester


W/L is such a weak argument in defense of a pitcher. :shock:

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PostPosted: Sat Jul 15, 2017 8:45 am 
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DAC wrote:
FavreFan wrote:

Heard this a few times since the FG article and it's still amusing. This is exactly why W/L does have meaning. Without it, you'll convince yourself Quintana is as good as Jon Lester


W/L is such a weak argument in defense of a pitcher. :shock:

Agree. It's probably only second to Fangraphs.

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PostPosted: Sat Jul 15, 2017 9:43 am 
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312player wrote:
Alright rogue, I know you are in the camp with jorr, FF and one or two other guys on Q, Lackey was a pretty valuable pitcher last year for us, he was 11-8 with 3.35 era.... You don't think Q can outdo that next year for half the salary?


i think the sox gave up a commodity more than anything else. here's a guy that typically goes out and toes the rubber enough to be an innings eater, and he typically does that with an ERA well under-4.00 and stats that are solid with FIP/etc. he obviously wasn't ever gonna be like, say, 01 diamondbacks schilling/johnson, even if he went on to find a new level to top-out at... but given his contract and his relative health [and quite possibly relative performance =] he was always going to have some kind of trade value to bring back some assets to the sox, especially if he was hanging around that 2.75-3.25 ERA tier of "nice pitchers" when you stop and consider his beyond-team-friendly [oh so reinsdorf] contract.

so basically the "risk" for the sox is that they end up giving up quintana for some guys who don't pan out, as opposed to trading him to someone else for some other prospects/package that might have panned out.... you know, akin to selling a house or a car.... you might eventually realize you could have done a better deal elsewhere, as opposed to "man i knew i was risking it all by selling that [car/house/asset]!!!"

so along those lines of thinking, hey, you know even if the shit doesn't work out it's not like you ended up giving away a sox lifer who was gonna have a statue outside of The Cell/Joan/Guaranteed-Rate.... or hell, maybe with hahn it should be called Guaranteed Returns Field, huh? ergo, i don't think the sox risked too much of anything if hahn made a proper assessment of quintana's market and this was either the best or just about the best he could do. i think there's way more risk on the cubs side of things seeing as they're trying to salvage what could go down in history as a lost season that makes 04 look quaint and homely in terms of actual performance. these 2017 cubs ain't even the 2006 white sox at this point, you know what i'm saying? dare i say there's a lot more "urgency" on the north side, so i'm thinking that since they've got higher stakes in the immediate future the "risk" here is really all on them, seeing as the sox were never really going to sell of quintana like for like or anything.

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PostPosted: Sat Jul 15, 2017 10:00 am 
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Franky T wrote:
This is right. Dan is Dan, but Terry made the show worth listening to even when he didn't give a damn anymore. Dan is still Dan, but Goff just doesn't offer anything worth listening to.


damaneel used to do the whole "pull up a stool" thing with "the afternoon saloon" on ESPN, and i reckon that's the kind of mentality that really showed you where terry was valuable: he was prolly the one guy at the score who you'd wanna have a beer + burger with as you shoot the shit and he's telling you some of those stories he could never tell you on air.... he was just that dude who you'd be cool hanging out with.... whereas bernstein would be a guy who you theoretically would enjoy yourself with but likely kind of pay a lot of lip service to (subtly acknowledging his big bulging thing-knowing brain) and goff? man goff seems like the type of guy who'd be namedropping all the athletes/celebs he ran into during one of his nights @ the rooftop club where THE POOR TORTURED SOUL WAS *FORCED* TO GET A WHOLE BOTTLE [OF CRISTAL? =] JUST TO BE ABLE TO HANG OUT AT THE DAMN CLUB!!!!! and since goff's used to being "the cool guy by default" given the [professional] company he keeps, man, he'd prolly feel quite natural putting in some work to make you feel lame and bland by comparison to player ham over there.

i also figure speagol would be a bernstein-lite in terms of overall RESPECT MY INTELLIGENTSIA stuff, but you'd prolly get rubbed the wrong way when he'd "check your musical chops/credentials" and quite possibly give you THE MATT SPEAGOL SEAL OF APPROVAL(TM) if you were eclectic+robust enough to get the SOA from the man who truly puts the "saurus" in "tributasaurus"

and parkins? idk much about the dude but from what i can gather he might try to break the ice by telling you about how he rubbed one out in the car on the way over..... ON WEED, so you prolly wouldn't know exactly what to make of it, but to be nice nad cordial you'd go out of your way to say that you admire his candor.

and yeah, in the end i reckon terry was the "just right" porridge for sports radio goldilocks.... and i reckon it's prolly cuz you know he didn't want/need anything from you (your respect, fealty, admiration, bowing-to-them-in-any-area, etc) and honestly he could truly give a fuck if you were there or not cuz he'd be the same guy doing the same "schtick" or "MO" whether you were there or not.... while the rest of them? it'd feel like they were doing a bit, even if that bit is technically their personality. i reckon there was something inherently "authentic" to terry that everyone else misses because they're too busy trying to say/do/BE something, whereas terry was just kind of there for the ride and thanks for the hefty checks..... and at the day we can all appreciate that raison d'etre, if you will =D

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PostPosted: Sat Jul 15, 2017 10:06 am 
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btw, i have a completely unsubstantiated theory that i could see a reason jason goff was all "keep it" with jimmy butler = he was at one of his "THE CLUB"s [rooftop or otherwise] and maybe jimmy was there, perhaps in a VIP area or maybe another VIP area over from "The Bear" and perhaps jason did a little thing like AYO JIMMY SUP DUDE (as i know that at least he's prone to roll up on people and tap them on the back of the shoulder and give them the nod like SUP?! 100% out of the blue like "who the fuck are you and where did you come from?") and jimmy was like "huh? what? who the fuck are you and where did you come from?" and jason was like "dude i'm jason goff, middays at the score" and jimmy was like "yeah, my original question stands" --- or perhaps jimmy even bigtimed him in some kind of a way that's like a less compelling newschool way of that vintage ron kittle / barry bonds bigtiming? idk.

but it wouldn't surprise me if there was some kind of an effort on goff's part to socially-to-formally "extend the olive branch" to JimBuck2s* and jimmy was like "LOLWAT?!" and goff got all flustered and buttmad like "awww hell naw who does this marquette motherfucker think he is poking the bear?" and thus the whole "meh" / "jimmy aint shit" / "keep it" impasse was born.... you know, as goff's passive/aggro way of getting back at jimmy as being some kind of *shrug* as opposed to being a star, cuz you know, that's the same kind of reaction i could honestly see jimmy giving an eager-to-network jay "danger" goff, especially in a club setting where jason is already forcefully serviced with a full bottle just to roll with the winrars.

so if jimmy potentially bigtimed goff IRL, maybe that's why goff would continually seem to bigtime/downplay jimmy on the air.... you know like "who's this guy? he's a mutated role player masquerading as a star, so he aint really anything to me... it dont matter if he stays or goes cuz he aint a 'big deal' that you build a team around or make face of the franchise" aka #KEEPIT!!!!!!!!!

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PostPosted: Sat Jul 15, 2017 7:16 pm 
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badrogue17 wrote:
DAC wrote:
FavreFan wrote:

Heard this a few times since the FG article and it's still amusing. This is exactly why W/L does have meaning. Without it, you'll convince yourself Quintana is as good as Jon Lester


W/L is such a weak argument in defense of a pitcher. :shock:

Agree. It's probably only second to Fangraphs.


That doesn't make sense.

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 17, 2017 8:50 am 
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Quintana is about the most failure proof acquisition a GM will ever make. No big contract, no injuries, no attitude, the height of reliability in numbers from year to year. Even if he sucks, he is still not a high paid #5.

and for that you gave up four A ball players, who, if they even make MLB, will be getting there around the end of Quintana's contract

I am stupid and even I saw the logic of this six months ago.

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 17, 2017 9:00 am 
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badrogue17 wrote:
There's nothing in Quintanas history to suggest he'll be a major contributor to any hypothetical future World Series the Cubs won't even be in.

Ted Lily had an almost identical record to Quintana when signed by the Cubs. He then went 44-26 over his first 3 seasons with the Cubs including two division winners (despite the infamous gif)


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PostPosted: Mon Jul 17, 2017 10:01 am 
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I'm simply amazed that people continue to cite W/L while breaking down trades or analyzing pitchers.


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PostPosted: Mon Jul 17, 2017 10:22 am 
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ChiefWampum wrote:
I'm simply amazed that people continue to cite W/L while breaking down trades or analyzing pitchers.



Why?

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PostPosted: Mon Jul 17, 2017 10:40 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
ChiefWampum wrote:
I'm simply amazed that people continue to cite W/L while breaking down trades or analyzing pitchers.



Why?

W/L has very little use in determining a player's value. Anybody who has watched Quintana pitch since he came into the league knows that he's not what people associate with a .500 pitcher. You can pitch for awful teams your entire career, but because your team never scored more than 2 runs per game, you wind up 10 games under.

People need to first use the eye test. People like Silvy, who have never watched more than 30 seconds of White Sox baseball, just throw things out there, like "ehhh, he's not really established yet."

Second, use peripherals. How's his control? Does he miss bats? Does poor fielding behind him hurt?

W/L is rather useless. It's like +/- in hockey. It holds muted value. It's not completely useless, but you can only truly interpret it when incorporating other variables.


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PostPosted: Mon Jul 17, 2017 10:56 am 
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ChiefWampum wrote:
W/L has very little use in determining a player's value.


That isn't a fact.

ChiefWampum wrote:
You can pitch for awful teams your entire career, but because your team never scored more than 2 runs per game, you wind up 10 games under.


Can you give me an example of the guy you describe?

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