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 Post subject: Fan Graphs
PostPosted: Sun Jul 23, 2017 10:48 am 
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Thiz is the reason I hate these new stats and the nerds who push them.


https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source= ... oa-9j_pF7g

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 Post subject: Re: Fan Graphs
PostPosted: Sun Jul 23, 2017 10:54 am 
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:lol:

W-L and ERA are misleading, but these other stats tell a true story.

:lol: :lol: :lol:

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 Post subject: Re: Fan Graphs
PostPosted: Sun Jul 23, 2017 11:00 am 
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He's easily better than Buehrle.

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 Post subject: Re: Fan Graphs
PostPosted: Sun Jul 23, 2017 11:00 am 
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Terry's Peeps wrote:
:lol:

W-L and ERA are misleading, but these other stats tell a true story.

:lol: :lol: :lol:

You're just one of those old dumb guys who can't see that a 4-11 record and 4.8 ERA is actually dominant.

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 Post subject: Re: Fan Graphs
PostPosted: Sun Jul 23, 2017 11:03 am 
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ERA is @ 5.05 now. This all comes down to putting way too much stock on strike outs.

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 Post subject: Re: Fan Graphs
PostPosted: Sun Jul 23, 2017 11:05 am 
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His granular batted ball data is just amazing .

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 Post subject: Re: Fan Graphs
PostPosted: Sun Jul 23, 2017 11:07 am 
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312player wrote:
ERA is @ 5.05 now. This all comes down to putting way too much stock on strike outs.

And not walking guys. Two things he has complete control of.


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 Post subject: Re: Fan Graphs
PostPosted: Sun Jul 23, 2017 11:13 am 
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Keyser Soze wrote:
312player wrote:
ERA is @ 5.05 now. This all comes down to putting way too much stock on strike outs.

And not walking guys. Two things he has complete control of.


Well, he doesn't have "complete control". There is a batter that has some "control".

All of this crap comes from the bad assumption that balls in play are luck rather than the way the pitcher handles the batter.

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 Post subject: Re: Fan Graphs
PostPosted: Sun Jul 23, 2017 11:17 am 
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Samardzija’s stuff, size, and athleticism are very real. He has taken the ball every fifth day since moving to the rotation in 2012. Sure, he might be just 63-83, 4.12, for his career, but this is not a mediocre starting pitcher.

:lol: :lol: :lol: Yeah he's just been unlucky for close to 150 career decisions . What a crock of shit . Fan Graphs should drink bleach.

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 Post subject: Re: Fan Graphs
PostPosted: Sun Jul 23, 2017 11:21 am 
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What's the exit velocity against him?


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 Post subject: Re: Fan Graphs
PostPosted: Sun Jul 23, 2017 11:21 am 
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Click bait, I'm not even bothering to read it. Sounds like they had the premise before hand and are trying to find stats to back it up.

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 Post subject: Re: Fan Graphs
PostPosted: Sun Jul 23, 2017 11:25 am 
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The author has to be a Notre Dame fanboy.

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 Post subject: Re: Fan Graphs
PostPosted: Sun Jul 23, 2017 11:30 am 
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Peoria Matt wrote:
What's the exit velocity against him?

86.3 mph. League avg is 88.8


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 Post subject: Re: Fan Graphs
PostPosted: Sun Jul 23, 2017 11:33 am 
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This is the way the game is viewed today. Through the eyes of a bunch of guys who believe that what they think should be is more important than what is. Next thing you know you're arguing authoritatively that the White Sox are better than the Twins.

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 Post subject: Re: Fan Graphs
PostPosted: Sun Jul 23, 2017 11:38 am 
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Peoria Matt wrote:
What's the exit velocity against him?
His exit velocity from Chicago was much too low. Both times.

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 Post subject: Re: Fan Graphs
PostPosted: Sun Jul 23, 2017 11:39 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Keyser Soze wrote:
312player wrote:
ERA is @ 5.05 now. This all comes down to putting way too much stock on strike outs.

And not walking guys. Two things he has complete control of.


Well, he doesn't have "complete control". There is a batter that has some "control".

All of this crap comes from the bad assumption that balls in play are luck rather than the way the pitcher handles the batter.


It is mostly luck. That is irrefutable.


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 Post subject: Re: Fan Graphs
PostPosted: Sun Jul 23, 2017 11:42 am 
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Keyser Soze wrote:
312player wrote:
ERA is @ 5.05 now. This all comes down to putting way too much stock on strike outs.

And not walking guys. Two things he has complete control of.




Nobody would argue that a high K to BB rate is a bad thing, you just can't ignore all the hits, home runs and runs he gives up.. The guy sucks. He's also pitching in the biggest pitchers parks in mlb more often than most.

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 Post subject: Re: Fan Graphs
PostPosted: Sun Jul 23, 2017 11:46 am 
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Keyser Soze wrote:
Peoria Matt wrote:
What's the exit velocity against him?

86.3 mph. League avg is 88.8


I was trying to be a smart ass. I didn't think they would have that in there. Ay yi yi.


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 Post subject: Re: Fan Graphs
PostPosted: Sun Jul 23, 2017 11:46 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Keyser Soze wrote:
312player wrote:
ERA is @ 5.05 now. This all comes down to putting way too much stock on strike outs.

And not walking guys. Two things he has complete control of.


Well, he doesn't have "complete control". There is a batter that has some "control".

Yeah, it still amuses me that people regurgitate that line about strikeouts. It only takes a few seconds of thought to realize how dumb it is.

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 Post subject: Re: Fan Graphs
PostPosted: Sun Jul 23, 2017 11:48 am 
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Peoria Matt wrote:
Keyser Soze wrote:
Peoria Matt wrote:
What's the exit velocity against him?

86.3 mph. League avg is 88.8


I was trying to be a smart ass. I didn't think they would have that in there. Ay yi yi.

So was I. :D


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 Post subject: Re: Fan Graphs
PostPosted: Sun Jul 23, 2017 11:49 am 
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I'll give you all one guess as to which starting pitcher is 59th out of the 69 qualified starters this year in run support per start.

Next up, you'll get one guess as to which pitcher is just outside the top-10 in HR/FB among qualified starters.

In the Bonus Round, double points if you can guess the range (0-.1, .1-.2, .2-.3, etc.) of the coefficient of determination that RS/Start has had on the winning percentage of qualified pitchers this year. Here's the plot to give you a starting point:

Image


Last edited by Juice's Lecture Notes on Sun Jul 23, 2017 11:51 am, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Fan Graphs
PostPosted: Sun Jul 23, 2017 11:51 am 
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Juice's Lecture Notes wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Keyser Soze wrote:
312player wrote:
ERA is @ 5.05 now. This all comes down to putting way too much stock on strike outs.

And not walking guys. Two things he has complete control of.


Well, he doesn't have "complete control". There is a batter that has some "control".

All of this crap comes from the bad assumption that balls in play are luck rather than the way the pitcher handles the batter.


It is mostly luck. That is irrefutable.


It's not irrefutable. Do you really think that Buehrle got amazingly lucky in allowing the minimum three times with a minimal amount of strikeouts?

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 Post subject: Re: Fan Graphs
PostPosted: Sun Jul 23, 2017 11:52 am 
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Joe Orr's War (WAR) against metrics continues.

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 Post subject: Re: Fan Graphs
PostPosted: Sun Jul 23, 2017 11:53 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Juice's Lecture Notes wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Keyser Soze wrote:
312player wrote:
ERA is @ 5.05 now. This all comes down to putting way too much stock on strike outs.

And not walking guys. Two things he has complete control of.


Well, he doesn't have "complete control". There is a batter that has some "control".

All of this crap comes from the bad assumption that balls in play are luck rather than the way the pitcher handles the batter.


It is mostly luck. That is irrefutable.


It's not irrefutable.


No, it is irrefutable.

Quote:
Do you really think that Buehrle got amazingly lucky in allowing the minimum three times with a minimal amount of strikeouts?


Do you not?


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 Post subject: Re: Fan Graphs
PostPosted: Sun Jul 23, 2017 11:53 am 
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Juice's Lecture Notes wrote:
I'll give you all one guess as to which starting pitcher is 59th out of the 69 qualified starters this year in run support per start.

Next up, you'll get one guess as to which pitcher is just outside the top-10 in HR/FB among qualified starters.

In the Bonus Round, double points if you can guess the range (0-.1, .1-.2, .2-.3, etc.) of the coefficient of determination that RS/Start has had on the winning percentage of qualified pitchers this year. Here's the plot to give you a starting point:

Image


Maybe it will all come together for him one year or maybe he is just cursed.

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 Post subject: Re: Fan Graphs
PostPosted: Sun Jul 23, 2017 11:53 am 
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Combining all of the balls he’s allowed to be put into play, his overall Adjusted Contact Score is almost exactly league average, at 99. League average, that is, despite a sky-high liner rate.

Maybe he has a sky-high liner rate because he sucks?

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 Post subject: Re: Fan Graphs
PostPosted: Sun Jul 23, 2017 11:54 am 
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Juice's Lecture Notes wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Juice's Lecture Notes wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Keyser Soze wrote:
312player wrote:
ERA is @ 5.05 now. This all comes down to putting way too much stock on strike outs.

And not walking guys. Two things he has complete control of.


Well, he doesn't have "complete control". There is a batter that has some "control".

All of this crap comes from the bad assumption that balls in play are luck rather than the way the pitcher handles the batter.


It is mostly luck. That is irrefutable.


It's not irrefutable.


No, it is irrefutable.

Quote:
Do you really think that Buehrle got amazingly lucky in allowing the minimum three times with a minimal amount of strikeouts?


Do you not?


Repeating that something is "irrefutable" doesn't make it true.

And of course I don't believe Buehrle had a lucky career or a miracle 81 out stretch wherein he retired every batter while striking out only 20 and getting "lucky" with the other 61 guys.

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 Post subject: Re: Fan Graphs
PostPosted: Sun Jul 23, 2017 11:57 am 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Juice's Lecture Notes wrote:
I'll give you all one guess as to which starting pitcher is 59th out of the 69 qualified starters this year in run support per start.

Next up, you'll get one guess as to which pitcher is just outside the top-10 in HR/FB among qualified starters.

In the Bonus Round, double points if you can guess the range (0-.1, .1-.2, .2-.3, etc.) of the coefficient of determination that RS/Start has had on the winning percentage of qualified pitchers this year. Here's the plot to give you a starting point:

Image


Maybe it will all come together for him one year or maybe he is just cursed.


You realize his stellar 2014 turned into Addison Russell, right?


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 Post subject: Re: Fan Graphs
PostPosted: Sun Jul 23, 2017 12:00 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Juice's Lecture Notes wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Juice's Lecture Notes wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Keyser Soze wrote:
And not walking guys. Two things he has complete control of.


Well, he doesn't have "complete control". There is a batter that has some "control".

All of this crap comes from the bad assumption that balls in play are luck rather than the way the pitcher handles the batter.


It is mostly luck. That is irrefutable.


It's not irrefutable.


No, it is irrefutable.



Repeating that something is "irrefutable" doesn't make it true.



No, that thing being irrefutable makes it so.

Quote:
And of course I don't believe Buehrle had a lucky career or a miracle 81 out stretch wherein he retired every batter while striking out only 20 and getting "lucky" with the other 61 guys.


Do you honestly think a no-no doesn't require an incredible amount of luck?


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 Post subject: Re: Fan Graphs
PostPosted: Sun Jul 23, 2017 12:09 pm 
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Do you honestly believe that a no-hitter doesn't require a tremendous amount of good pitching in the vast majority of cases. And I'm giving you an example of a guy who faced the minimum three times (the only guy) and he did it with relatively few strikeouts. What's more logical- that he got guys to hit the ball where he wanted or that he got incredibly lucky?

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