million in purses a day ....want to hear Rubes handicappin this joint

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

Not seeing too many free pps of the Kentucky Downs races.

But here you go, Walt, the win estimates for race 4.

Mongol 33.0%
Next Shares 30.6%
Mr Cub 18.7%
Gettysburg 6.6%

I spent the last week updating my model in consultation with one of the foremost experts on Excel and statistics in the country (and two time Jeopardy winner!). It's now state of the art. I might make it available to people here, but it wouldn't be free. I put a lot of time in the programming. It's automated, making it easy to use.

There's also a couple of stakes races at Indiana Grand today, races 8 and 9.

you're buddy Cox didn't give you da scoop?

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

Yeah, where is Arklow? I read he was entering the Centaur Stakes at Indiana Grand today, but he's not on the PPs.

http://www.horseracingnation.com/news/I ... ations_123

Cox told me two weeks ago he didn't know what was next for Arklow. I suggested he put him back on dirt and have Rosario ride him. He liked the idea of Rosario riding.

He's got four horses entered at Indiana Grand today. I shot him a message, asking how Arklow is doing.

Cowboy Culture in the Centaur and Sensitive and India Mantuana in the Indiana Grand Stakes. Looks like Cowboy Culture is the favorite in the 8th with Geroux aboard (oh no!).

https://www.facebook.com/BradCoxRacing/ ... =3&theater

All right, Walt. This might be the last time I do this.

Tourist Mile at Kentucky Downs

Shining Copper 26.2%
Applicator 21.0%
Irish Straight 20.7%
Flatlined 12.7%
Hoontenanny 11.6%
Western Reserve 7.7%
Bandar 0.1%
Dimension 0.0%
Zambian 0.0%

Centaur Stakes at Indiana Grand

Harmac 44.0%
Cowboy Culture 30.1%
Strike Your Light 10.6%
Judah 5.5%
Balandeen 4.2%
Dawn Raider 3.2%
Jocker Justice 1.2%
Tiz a Slam 1.2%

I'm not a big gaffer like you or JORR rubbing elbows with owners and trainers....or a member of the AP 10, but I do watch MR. ED
4th Kitten's Gold,Keep an eye on Gaffalione who gets Geroux mounts who is in Indiana with a great chance for a stakes Double

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

Not trying to show anyone up. I put those percentages up for your and others' benefit. Not quite a gaff how I handicapped the Traverse, was it?

You can identify undervalued horses by taking the live odds plus one, times the winning estimates. Any horse with a number higher than one is at a discount to fair value.

Or you can throw them in your exacta, tri-fectas with their ordering.

How did that one go again? Oh, yeah. West Coast, Gunnevera, Irap at about 500-1. I gave you the top three out of four.

Mongol was scratched late. Mr. Cub won, who I had ranked 2 after the scratch.

Also Mr. Cub went off at 4-1, which is just about where I had him.

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

_________________
I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

Wow, looks like I had the right four---Applicator, Flatlined, Shining Copper, Irish Straight was the order.

wow what about Indiana.....did you play it ....no!

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

Saturday KD $6,044,717.15 up more than 30% & 2nd highest in track history. Sorry Rube but I find for a guy ho didn't know what pari-mutuel was making his own odds a stretch....and if you use JORR "SYSTEM" wouldn't you pick the same horses?

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.

I don't use a "system", Walt. I simply evaluate what I think a horse's chances are vis-a-vis his actual odds.

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Anybody here seen my old friend Bobby?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
I thought I saw him walkin' up to The Hill
With Elon, Tulsi, and Don

No, point in even talking to him, JORR. You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make him drink. And I'm not making anything up. I use the best quantitative approach, simulating the races 1,000 times to calculate the odds.

For people who have followed what JORR has said about how he bets, you have a better chance of winning over time with that approach than trying to bet the favorite. To use a baseball analogy, you're aiming to hit for triples and home runs, not singles and doubles. With good odds-making, the higher odds compensates mathematically for a lower winning percentage.

so money wise you are ahead for the year?

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I'm going to bounce from the spot for awhile but I will be back at some point to argue with you about this hoops stuff again. Playoffs have been great this season. See ya up the road.

I'm out.