Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
pittmike wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
tommy wrote:
put the damn ball in play. besides, when you're off, you're off. you get nothing. can kill you in a short series, for a variety of reasons.
Right. Let's simply it. We have a crystal ball and we know that:
1) Player A will come to bat and strike out.
2) Player B will come to bat and put the ball in play.
Regardless of the ultimate disposition of Player B's at-bat, it's more desirable simply because it will result in him reaching base approximately 30% of the time.
JLN?
With a runner on third and no outs I think the team wants player B to be up.
The mitigating factor is that guys who strike out a lot and get to remain in the big leagues while playing regularly tend to have a lot of power. I'm sure that JLN can give us a number where the cost of the strikeouts is outweighed by the benefit of the power. The problem is that you don't know when the homers are going to come. The Cubs don't really have any table setters. Zobrist is the one guy they have who reliably puts the ball in play.
Yeah, it can be broken down as expected value, in runs, for each batter.
If we assume JORR's Player A is the home run hitter, there is a home run rate for Player A that is more valuable than the rate at which Player B's hits score runs and would otherwise negate the times he struck out and was worthless to his team.
The math gets a little more hairy when you want to account for the component quarks of runs: Times Not Out. In this scenario, JORR's Player B becomes incredibly more valuable than Player A, unless Player A can hit home runs at an absurdly high rate. What's more, Player B's performance is more insulated from a poor run of luck, because even a dip in BABIP to the low .200 range puts his Times Not Out rate at about triple that of the best HR rates we see regularly in baseball.
And the more and more you try to make your model of player value depict real life (considering that Player A and Player B are unlikely to be only a K/HR or Hit/Out guy, the value of non-HR power hitting, the base-out situations both are likely to encounter with your lineup, etc.), the more variables you add.
Login
Register
FAQ
Search
