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I didn't want to create a new thread. From today's WSJ:
MLB: The Rise of Baseball's Superteams --- A World Series matchup between the Dodgers and Astros highlights the huge gap between baseball's top and bottom teams
The Wall Street Journal
Jared Diamond , Brian Costa
By Jared Diamond and Brian Costa
24 October 2017, 1215 words, English,
Devotees of baseball's data revolution describe the playoffs as a crapshoot, an unpredictable tournament where chaos reigns and the most deserving participant rarely emerges victorious.
But this year's World Series between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Houston Astros introduces a new paradigm sweeping the sport. Instead of the vast parity that defined the last decade, there exists a Grand Canyon-sized gap between the top and bottom of the standings. A few teams accumulated so much talent that they simply overpowered the field, which is weakened by a phenomenon in which many executives view mediocrity as the ultimate failure -- and are willing to suffer ineptitude for a while to achieve greatness.
It resulted in a regular season in which three teams -- the Dodgers, Astros and Cleveland Indians -- finished with more than 100 wins for the fourth time in major-league history. Starting Tuesday night at Dodger Stadium, two such clubs will square off with a championship at stake for the first time since 1970.
Welcome to the Age of the Superteam.
"You have front offices thinking more strategically about, 'Which side of the spectrum are we on?'" Dodgers general manager Farhan Zaidi said. "Because I'm actively trying to avoid getting stuck in the middle."
This push to the extremes originated in basketball and football, before seeping into baseball more recently. On paper, it makes sense: Good teams vie for titles and reap the benefits of qualifying for the postseason. Bad ones earn coveted top draft picks, the easiest way to add a direction-altering player without giving anything up in return -- a must for smaller franchises that lack vast financial resources. Teams in the middle often stay in neutral, spinning their wheels without going anywhere.
To escape that fate, teams developed a strategy known, somewhat controversially, as "tanking" -- a rebuilding technique that involves enduring a stretch of futility in order to acquire the pieces necessary to climb back to prominence.
With commitment and patience, the approach undoubtedly can work. Theo Epstein employed it with the Chicago Cubs, the reigning champs. Under Jeff Luhnow, Houston's ultra-statistically minded GM, the Astros embarked on an unprecedented teardown, averaging 103 losses in his first three years at the helm. This season, they went 101-61, brimming with young stars like Carlos Correa, George Springer and Alex Bregman.
Luhnow faced plenty of skepticism for using such an unorthodox method. Now, with copycats sprouting up, nobody questions the Astros anymore.
"We were just bluntly honest with people," Astros president Reid Ryan said.
Those in the industry attribute the popularity of Houston's model to changes to the MLB draft that coincided with Luhnow's hiring for the 2012 season. Before that point, teams could sign draftees for as much money as they wanted, which in some cases disincentivized high picks. Cash-strapped teams would sometimes refrain from selecting the best available player out of fear that his contract demands would strain their economic limits.
To combat that problem, the league implemented limits on how much teams could spend in draft bonuses, with teams holding more desirable picks receiving a larger pool. Suddenly, putting up the worst record in the majors came with an even better prize, and smart teams took advantage.
As time passes, the tactic seems less crazy, which was not the case a decade ago. Former Baltimore Orioles executive Jim Duquette recalled that in 2007, saddled with a hopeless team, he wanted to trade shortstop Miguel Tejada. The Los Angeles Angels offered Ervin Santana and Erick Aybar, a package Duquette thought would help the Orioles in the future. He says his boss, Peter Angelos, quickly rejected the idea.
"My owner wasn't willing to take that beating and be really bad," said Duquette, now an analyst for SNY. "He wanted to stay somewhat competitive."
More owners appear willing to go that route now. For the first time since 1997, only five American League teams finished with a winning record, the five that made the playoffs. Four teams finished with at least 95 losses -- the same number as 2015 and 2016 combined.
With a growing number of teams choosing to struggle, it creates an opportunity for win-now teams to load up in ways never before possible. It sparked an arms race among a few teams to suck up as many assets as they possibly could, not only to improve their few weak spots, but to bolster areas of strength.
Consider the Dodgers, who at 104-58 compiled the best record in the major leagues since 2004. They mixed baseball's largest payroll with smart leadership to construct a squad with a stunning amount of depth, replete with quality backups at every position, at least some of whom would start elsewhere. When they lost All-Star shortstop Corey Seager to a back injury for the National League Championship Series, they replaced him with Charlie Culberson, who went 5-for-11 at the plate.
Though the Dodgers already boasted MLB's best rotation heading into the end of July, they still targeted arguably the best starting pitcher on the market, trading for right-hander Yu Darvish. After the Dodgers clinched their first pennant since 1988 last week, closer Kenley Jansen praised Zaidi and president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, saying they "put a ridiculous team together."
Darvish turned a great team into an even greater one. The Astros responded. A month after the Darvish deal, Houston dealt for ace right-hander Justin Verlander, who has gone 4-0 with a 1.46 ERA in the playoffs. He cemented the Astros' status as a Superteam.
"When we came into spring training, we thought we had a great team, but at the All-Star break, some teams started loading up. The Dodgers were one of those teams," Astros pitcher Lance McCullers Jr. said. "We were really excited to get [Verlander], because we felt like that was our moment to get loaded up."
The stratification is producing a strange new reality -- the duty to lose. Vince Gennaro, the associate dean at NYU's Tisch Institute for Sports Management, Media, and Business, said that in this environment, middling teams with trade chips "have an obligation to their fans to deal those players for prospects to make their team less competitive in the near future so they can return to contention."
Others question how long it will remain effective. If too many teams try to tank at once, not all of them can lose enough to get the draft spot they seek. This season, for instance, the San Diego Padres looked like textbook tankers, and they didn't even finish in last place in their division. Zaidi pointed out that "there are equilibrium effects to a bunch of people changing their strategy."
The Dodgers and Astros, meanwhile, will exit their showdown with a mission to outsmart their opponents again when the time comes to retool.
"How do you stay at the top once you're successful?" Luhnow said. "That's the Holy Grail we're trying to figure out."
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