Long story short,
I run a NCAA pool (cheap 1 bracket $2, 2 for $4, 3 for $5; http://crsl.mayhem.cbssports.com/e?ttag=BPM18_cpy_invite_returning) and my graduate school friend and I try to predict the NCAA tournament using a statistical technique called a profile analysis. Every year it fails. So here are the final fours based on the two decision rules we use for ties in profiles:
Difference Score (the more 'conservative' method) final four: Cincinnati, Xavier, Purdue, and Michigan State
Final game: Xavier over Purdue
Absolute value (the more 'liberal' method) final Four: Arizona, North Carolina, Villanova, and Duke.
Final game: Duke over North Carolina

Now you know who not to pick.

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I filled out a bracket in your tourney using my proprietary system. If you want the answers, check there.

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Is it good on the liberal method, I have 3 of the Final 4 and that's my title game and pick

It's prediction accuracy varies by round. First round it has a 72.3% accuracy and then it drops for rounds 2, 3, and 4. Then at five it picks back up and round 6 it is at 93% accuracy. So if we get the correct final game, we can predict the winner. The liberal method tends to have more upsets...but they tend to happen in the later round and that's why it falls apart in accuracy.

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