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Power is always in the hands of the masses of men. What oppresses the masses is their own ignorance, their own short-sighted selfishness.
- Henry George

Dammit, Don, that's just awful.

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Not a mult.

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Elections have consequences.

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There are only two examples of infinity: The universe and human stupidity and I'm not sure about the universe.

...and as of today the market (at least the S&P) is on track to be positive for YTD

You guys counted out this bull market way too soon. Corporate earning season has been kind to the markets and that's based upon last year's tax rates. Wait until you see where earnings go in 2018.

If you have Index Funds, dividends should be nice.

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“When I walked in this morning, and saw the flag was at half mast, I thought 'alright another bureaucrat ate it.'" - Ron Swanson

With the tax cut changes I don't see the market slowing down in the near future. I imagine it will take a few quarters before a new norm is established with the tax rate changes. The true impact won't be seen for 3 or 4 years when inflation has had a chance to circle through the system.

Well the Fed is about to raise rates at a higher rate than we are accustomed to (that is what triggered the initial correction) as they see the now accelerating wage growth as being an inflationary trigger.

It's the right call for them to do so. The era of free money went on for much longer than it should have. I'm just glad I locked down my mortgage while I could still get 4% for 30 years fixed.

If you haven't refinanced in the era of low interest rates, I'd be rushing to do so.

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“When I walked in this morning, and saw the flag was at half mast, I thought 'alright another bureaucrat ate it.'" - Ron Swanson

...and now the Dow is also in positive territory for the year.

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“When I walked in this morning, and saw the flag was at half mast, I thought 'alright another bureaucrat ate it.'" - Ron Swanson

Obama tried to secretly force his economy back in there for a week or so, but TRUMP took care of that and we're winning again!

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It's funny how those Jay Farner Quicken Loans commercials have morphed from:

"Mortgage rates are at an all-time low", which then became
"The rate on a 30-yr mortgage is a 3.xx%", which then turned into
"More important than a rate is great customer service"



And David Hochberg is now doing his own Trump/North Korea twist on Quicken Loans, ripping "the company with the rockets" for their excessive fees.

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It's too late. I too locked in a sub 4% rate a few years back. We got enough equity into the home to get rid of our PMI recently, and we were calling the mortgage company to get it worked out. They asked us if we wanted to refinance, and I inquired about rates and terms. They said only a 15-year refinance could maybe get a lower rate. If we refinanced our 30-year into another 30-year, our rate would actually go up.

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The markets are now within spitting distance of their highs before the correction. S&P 500 is up about 4.5% for the year.

Moral of the story, never count out the US stock market, you never really lose money on it until you sell and if you hold your assets for decades, you'll always come out ahead.

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“When I walked in this morning, and saw the flag was at half mast, I thought 'alright another bureaucrat ate it.'" - Ron Swanson

In their statement on interest rates, the Fed didn't exactly sound optimistic on the economy when they say that risks (upside versus downside) are balanced. If the risks are balanced, why would they need to tighten further beyond 1.75% after the rate hike today? The Fed is signaling two more hikes, but my interpretation is that it may only be for show to keep the dollar from crashing. Gold is rising today like gangbusters, up to around $1,340 on the futures, after having been held hostage lately by this looming FOMC rate decision and statement. I continue to be long physical gold. If it can pop above $1,360, the next big technical resistance, it's off to the races for the precious metal.

They upgraded their outlook (underline portion from article): "The economic outlook has strengthened in recent months," the committee said in its post-meeting statement, a sentence that had not been in previous releases. Fed officials also released their projections for the federal funds rate, which remained unchanged for 2018.

Many analysts expect at least two more and possibly three increases this year. The Fed is trying hard to unwind the easy money policies and get ahead of inflation. A return to so-called normalization. They realize that the bond and equity markets are overvalued and not pricing risk properly. Large portions of the country also have a fresh housing bubble with tight supplies and unaffordable prices.

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Hawaii (fuck) You

It's called lip service, the Fed patting themselves on the back. It's also old news. If you have been paying attention, the Atlanta Fed slashed its Q1 GDP forecast from 5.4% to below 2.0% last week. Goldman and Morgan Stanley followed suit with their projections. Even though the Fed said the outlook is "balanced", it would appear that the risks are now titled to the downside. At the same time, the Fed said that it will monitor closely developments in inflation, which is code for inflation now running hotter than it's target. If the economy really does weaken, that could produce stagflation, which would be bad for stocks but good for gold. New WH economic adviser Kudlow's projection for 4-5% growth is cheerleading and nothing but a pipe dream.

the economy's doing very well. no risk of stagflation. GDP of 3-3.5% is best your going to get in the modern era.

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Reality is your friend, not your enemy. -- Seacrest

The Q1 numbers have disappointed for several years running. There is something in the seasonal adjustments that keeps messing up Q1 GDP figures.

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Hawaii (fuck) You

Oh for sure given the limited workforce growth. Many economists are even skeptical that we can get to 3% for a sustained period of time.

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Hawaii (fuck) You

I don't believe the economy is doing well, and I am skeptical of the employment data. The low participation rate has has kept the unemployment rate superficially low, because those who have stopped looking for work are not counted as unemployed. 95 million people are still on the sidelines, equating to only a 63% participation rate. High quality, high paying jobs are not being created. Average hourly earnings actually declined to +2.6% annualized in Feb. compared to +2.9% in Jan. That's not even keeping up with inflation, so real wage growth is zero or negative. No wonder the middle class continues to be destroyed.

And actually it's worse than that, because the commerce department strips out food and energy to calculate inflation. Ron Paul used to say in debates with Bernanke that inflation actually is closer to 6%. Then year after year, real wage growth is in the order of -3%. That's so bad. Our economy is shit.

How's bitcoin and darkobux doing?

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"Play until it hurts, then play until it hurts to not play."
http://soundcloud.com/darkside124 HOF 2013, MM Champion 2014

It's hard to keep with the "people stopped looking" line when we are now facing labor shortages across countless industries.

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“When I walked in this morning, and saw the flag was at half mast, I thought 'alright another bureaucrat ate it.'" - Ron Swanson

Starting pay for truck drivers is $60K if you can pass a drug test.

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Reality is your friend, not your enemy. -- Seacrest

and the companies are desperate for drivers right now.

Ditto for any construction company. They have more orders for new builds for houses right now than they have men available to build them. Labor costs are skyrocketing on new homes as a result.

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“When I walked in this morning, and saw the flag was at half mast, I thought 'alright another bureaucrat ate it.'" - Ron Swanson

If you can weld, you can walk into pretty much any fabricator and get a job.

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Being a truck driver is an early death sentence. You are constantly sleep deprived and under stress. Both are hard on the heart and contribute to high BP.

And if you're over 50 as a laborer in the construction industry, you're obsolete. Your only option then is to go work at Home Depot.

Like I said, high quality, high pay jobs are not being created.

There are plenty of jobs out there. nobody owes you anything. Much easier to find one today than five years ago.

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Reality is your friend, not your enemy. -- Seacrest

The last jobs report was notable in how many folks re-entered the workforce. If folks are having a hard time finding a decent paying job, then it is likely that their skill set does not match up with openings. And it is a serious problem.

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Hawaii (fuck) You

It's unrealistic to expect workforce participation to go to pre-recession levels, not because we haven't recovered, but because the boomers are now starting to retire so there will be a swell of people out of the labor force due to retirement. It's a reflection of a demographic change and nothing more than that.

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“When I walked in this morning, and saw the flag was at half mast, I thought 'alright another bureaucrat ate it.'" - Ron Swanson

Everything I read since the recession has said that about half the decline is caused by the boomers.

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Hawaii (fuck) You

You're clueless. There are plenty of decent paying jobs out there if you are willing to take the training.