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 Post subject: Re: Chris Sale Trade
PostPosted: Mon Apr 23, 2018 9:09 pm 
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Juiced wrote:
When you trade a pitcher like Sale you need him to be K.Bryant good out of the gate. Having him struggle like he is hurts the confidence in the rebuild. You shouldn't be hoping his ceiling this year is Baez :lol:


Bryant age 23 season OPS .858
Moncada age 23 season OPS .848

Bryant also lead the league in K's at 199.


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 Post subject: Re: Chris Sale Trade
PostPosted: Tue Apr 24, 2018 8:02 am 
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MartyD47 wrote:
Juiced wrote:
When you trade a pitcher like Sale you need him to be K.Bryant good out of the gate. Having him struggle like he is hurts the confidence in the rebuild. You shouldn't be hoping his ceiling this year is Baez :lol:


Bryant age 23 season OPS .858
Moncada age 23 season OPS .848

Bryant also lead the league in K's at 199.


Moncada also leads the league in strikeouts with 34 in 19 games, on pace for 289 strikeouts.


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 Post subject: Re: Chris Sale Trade
PostPosted: Tue Apr 24, 2018 8:11 am 
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juschill wrote:
MartyD47 wrote:
Juiced wrote:
When you trade a pitcher like Sale you need him to be K.Bryant good out of the gate. Having him struggle like he is hurts the confidence in the rebuild. You shouldn't be hoping his ceiling this year is Baez :lol:


Bryant age 23 season OPS .858
Moncada age 23 season OPS .848

Bryant also lead the league in K's at 199.


Moncada also leads the league in strikeouts with 34 in 19 games, on pace for 289 strikeouts.


strikeout is the same as any other out, or so I've been told

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 Post subject: Re: Chris Sale Trade
PostPosted: Tue Apr 24, 2018 8:55 am 
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good dolphin wrote:
juschill wrote:
MartyD47 wrote:
Juiced wrote:
When you trade a pitcher like Sale you need him to be K.Bryant good out of the gate. Having him struggle like he is hurts the confidence in the rebuild. You shouldn't be hoping his ceiling this year is Baez :lol:


Bryant age 23 season OPS .858
Moncada age 23 season OPS .848

Bryant also lead the league in K's at 199.


Moncada also leads the league in strikeouts with 34 in 19 games, on pace for 289 strikeouts.


strikeout is the same as any other out, or so I've been told


Sure makes the game exciting to watch. Strikeout, home run, or walk.


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 Post subject: Re: Chris Sale Trade
PostPosted: Tue Apr 24, 2018 12:23 pm 
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A walk is not as good as a hit and a strike out is not as good as a batted ball in play. That's a fact. Moncada's wOBA is at .367. That's very good. Cut down the Ks a little bit and he's a beast. A 38% K rate is beyond ridiculous


Last edited by Nardi on Tue Apr 24, 2018 12:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Chris Sale Trade
PostPosted: Tue Apr 24, 2018 12:24 pm 
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Nardi wrote:
A walk is not as good as a hit and a strike out is not as good as a batted ball in play. That's a fact. Moncada's wOBA is at .367. That's very good. Cut down the Ks a little bit and he's a beast



Yup.

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 Post subject: Re: Chris Sale Trade
PostPosted: Tue Apr 24, 2018 12:31 pm 
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on average K's cost you the same number of runs.

http://tangotiger.com/index.php/site/co ... um=twitter

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 Post subject: Re: Chris Sale Trade
PostPosted: Tue Apr 24, 2018 12:34 pm 
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Hatchetman wrote:
on average K's cost you the same number of runs.

http://tangotiger.com/index.php/site/co ... um=twitter


Only with two outs, if you read the whole thing.

The problem is- you know a strikeout is an out. When you a bat a ball you only know the outcome after the fielders attempt to record the out. So if the league batting average average is around .275, then 28% of balls put in play result in a hit plus those balls where the fielder makes an error. So about 30% of balls put in play results in a batter getting on base safely.

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 Post subject: Re: Chris Sale Trade
PostPosted: Tue Apr 24, 2018 12:37 pm 
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Hopefully both Moncada and Kopech hit. They traded 3 cheap years of a HOF pitcher for them.


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 Post subject: Re: Chris Sale Trade
PostPosted: Tue Apr 24, 2018 12:43 pm 
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I read the whole thing numbnuts. You read it and try to comprehend:

This is our tally:

Strikeouts as costly:
◾76% of the time

Strikeouts less costly:
◾15-16% of time: by 0.05 runs

Total net impact of 0.05 x 15.5% = +0.01 runs

Strikeouts more costly:
◾4% of the time: 0.04 runs
◾1% of the time: 0.08 runs
◾3-4% of time: 0.26 runs

Total net impact of the above = -0.01 runs

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 Post subject: Re: Chris Sale Trade
PostPosted: Tue Apr 24, 2018 12:44 pm 
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denisdman wrote:
Nardi wrote:
A walk is not as good as a hit and a strike out is not as good as a batted ball in play. That's a fact. Moncada's wOBA is at .367. That's very good. Cut down the Ks a little bit and he's a beast



Yup.

The result of a walk and a single is the exact same thing.


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 Post subject: Re: Chris Sale Trade
PostPosted: Tue Apr 24, 2018 4:43 pm 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
denisdman wrote:
Nardi wrote:
A walk is not as good as a hit and a strike out is not as good as a batted ball in play. That's a fact. Moncada's wOBA is at .367. That's very good. Cut down the Ks a little bit and he's a beast



Yup.

The result of a walk and a single is the exact same thing.


Not with men on base.


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 Post subject: Re: Chris Sale Trade
PostPosted: Tue Apr 24, 2018 5:29 pm 
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Hatchetman wrote:
I read the whole thing numbnuts. You read it and try to comprehend:

This is our tally:

Strikeouts as costly:
◾76% of the time

Strikeouts less costly:
◾15-16% of time: by 0.05 runs

Total net impact of 0.05 x 15.5% = +0.01 runs

Strikeouts more costly:
◾4% of the time: 0.04 runs
◾1% of the time: 0.08 runs
◾3-4% of time: 0.26 runs

Total net impact of the above = -0.01 runs


That was awesome, fun and really exciting. Can we do it again? :lol:

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 Post subject: Re: Chris Sale Trade
PostPosted: Thu May 10, 2018 10:44 am 
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"The result of a walk and a single is the exact same thing."

!st and 3rd is the same as 1st and 2nd?


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 Post subject: Re: Chris Sale Trade
PostPosted: Thu May 10, 2018 10:54 am 
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juschill wrote:
rogers park bryan wrote:
denisdman wrote:
Nardi wrote:
A walk is not as good as a hit and a strike out is not as good as a batted ball in play. That's a fact. Moncada's wOBA is at .367. That's very good. Cut down the Ks a little bit and he's a beast



Yup.

The result of a walk and a single is the exact same thing.


Not with men on base.



True, but there are different ways to look at these things. Let's not call the batted ball a "single" for a moment and just view it as a batted ball. If we look at it from that perspective, it will result in a man reaching base safely about 30% of the time (though with the radical overshifts now in fashion I'm certain that number is less). A walk results in a man on base 100% of the time.

One of the problems with the base on balls offense is that it makes for a boring game. And now the shifts have caused batters to attempt to beat those shifts one way- by hitting over them, i.e. trying to hit a home run. These things have added up to a game where strikeouts occur at a ridiculous rate.

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 Post subject: Re: Chris Sale Trade
PostPosted: Thu May 10, 2018 10:55 am 
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Hatchetman wrote:
I read the whole thing numbnuts. You read it and try to comprehend:

This is our tally:

Strikeouts as costly:
◾76% of the time

Strikeouts less costly:
◾15-16% of time: by 0.05 runs

Total net impact of 0.05 x 15.5% = +0.01 runs

Strikeouts more costly:
◾4% of the time: 0.04 runs
◾1% of the time: 0.08 runs
◾3-4% of time: 0.26 runs

Total net impact of the above = -0.01 runs


I disagree a batted ball in play during the 76% of the time should be categorized as it was. It is assuming an out for for the sake of the argument.


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 Post subject: Re: Chris Sale Trade
PostPosted: Thu May 10, 2018 11:02 am 
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"A walk results in a man on base 100% of the time."

No doubt. I am not deriding walks whatsoever. What my concern is the Dunn/LaRoche mission of LOOKING for walks. Their OBPs are somewhat misleading while their wOBAs tell more of the truth because a walk is not as good as a hit


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 Post subject: Re: Chris Sale Trade
PostPosted: Thu May 10, 2018 11:21 am 
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Nardi wrote:
"A walk results in a man on base 100% of the time."

No doubt. I am not deriding walks whatsoever. What my concern is the Dunn/LaRoche mission of LOOKING for walks. Their OBPs are somewhat misleading while their wOBAs tell more of the truth because a walk is not as good as a hit


I think there's a philosophical argument there. There's no doubt that the "see pitches, take walks" strategy inspired by the late 20th Century explosion of data analysis works as an offensive strategy. But baseball is entertainment. Or at least it's supposed to be. I think MLB has to do something about the strikeouts. I'm not sure how you address it.

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 Post subject: Re: Chris Sale Trade
PostPosted: Thu May 10, 2018 5:13 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Nardi wrote:
"A walk results in a man on base 100% of the time."

No doubt. I am not deriding walks whatsoever. What my concern is the Dunn/LaRoche mission of LOOKING for walks. Their OBPs are somewhat misleading while their wOBAs tell more of the truth because a walk is not as good as a hit


I think there's a philosophical argument there. There's no doubt that the "see pitches, take walks" strategy inspired by the late 20th Century explosion of data analysis works as an offensive strategy. But baseball is entertainment. Or at least it's supposed to be. I think MLB has to do something about the strikeouts. I'm not sure how you address it.


I think you start by quit juicing the ball and lowering the seams. Rallies and pitchers trying to get out of jams is pretty exciting. More so than solo HRs


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 Post subject: Re: Chris Sale Trade
PostPosted: Thu May 10, 2018 5:32 pm 
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Nardi wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Nardi wrote:
"A walk results in a man on base 100% of the time."

No doubt. I am not deriding walks whatsoever. What my concern is the Dunn/LaRoche mission of LOOKING for walks. Their OBPs are somewhat misleading while their wOBAs tell more of the truth because a walk is not as good as a hit


I think there's a philosophical argument there. There's no doubt that the "see pitches, take walks" strategy inspired by the late 20th Century explosion of data analysis works as an offensive strategy. But baseball is entertainment. Or at least it's supposed to be. I think MLB has to do something about the strikeouts. I'm not sure how you address it.


I think you start by quit juicing the ball and lowering the seams. Rallies and pitchers trying to get out of jams is pretty exciting. More so than solo HRs



I agree that it should be more difficult to hit homers and the change you suggest would help. I also think that calling the actual strikezone- letters to knees- would results in less strikeouts. I argued with a friend about it as he believes an expanded strikezone will yield more strikeouts. But my thinking is that an larger zone will force the batters to go up looking to hit rather than take, take, taking pitches. How often do we see a batter stand there looking at the best pitch of an at-bat? Anyway, my friend's suggestion was lowering the mound.

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 Post subject: Re: Chris Sale Trade
PostPosted: Thu May 10, 2018 8:39 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Nardi wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Nardi wrote:
"A walk results in a man on base 100% of the time."

No doubt. I am not deriding walks whatsoever. What my concern is the Dunn/LaRoche mission of LOOKING for walks. Their OBPs are somewhat misleading while their wOBAs tell more of the truth because a walk is not as good as a hit


I think there's a philosophical argument there. There's no doubt that the "see pitches, take walks" strategy inspired by the late 20th Century explosion of data analysis works as an offensive strategy. But baseball is entertainment. Or at least it's supposed to be. I think MLB has to do something about the strikeouts. I'm not sure how you address it.


I think you start by quit juicing the ball and lowering the seams. Rallies and pitchers trying to get out of jams is pretty exciting. More so than solo HRs



I agree that it should be more difficult to hit homers and the change you suggest would help. I also think that calling the actual strikezone- letters to knees- would results in less strikeouts. I argued with a friend about it as he believes an expanded strikezone will yield more strikeouts. But my thinking is that an larger zone will force the batters to go up looking to hit rather than take, take, taking pitches. How often do we see a batter stand there looking at the best pitch of an at-bat? Anyway, my friend's suggestion was lowering the mound.


I agree with your friend Chest high heat will increase Ks.


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 Post subject: Re: Chris Sale Trade
PostPosted: Mon May 14, 2018 12:57 pm 
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it will increase strike outs at first, but I think it will settle. What you will have, though, is faster play. If they batters are forced to be more aggressive, at bats will move faster via strike out, hit, or ball in play. All of those a good thing.

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 Post subject: Re: Chris Sale Trade
PostPosted: Mon May 14, 2018 12:58 pm 
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Jim Kaat is suggesting going to seven inning games.

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 Post subject: Re: Chris Sale Trade
PostPosted: Mon May 14, 2018 1:01 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Jim Kaat is suggesting going to seven inning games.


How about zero inning games? Problem solved.

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 Post subject: Re: Chris Sale Trade
PostPosted: Mon May 14, 2018 1:02 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
Jim Kaat is suggesting going to seven inning games.


Go to 3 balls for a walk, 2 strikes for an out.

Forces both pitcher and batter to be more aggressive.

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 Post subject: Re: Chris Sale Trade
PostPosted: Mon May 14, 2018 1:05 pm 
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I don't think the answer is to radically change the game. Stop using a juiced ball with low laces. That would be a start. if it weren't so easy to hit it out, guys would have to use other ways to score.

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 Post subject: Re: Chris Sale Trade
PostPosted: Mon May 14, 2018 1:17 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
I don't think the answer is to radically change the game. Stop using a juiced ball with low laces. That would be a start. if it weren't so easy to hit it out, guys would have to use other ways to score.



You can not say, we want quicker games and want more revenue. People want to see offense.


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 Post subject: Re: Chris Sale Trade
PostPosted: Mon May 14, 2018 1:23 pm 
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Quicker implies length of game and that is not a real issue for MANY fans. It is the 'pace' of play. I really don't care if a game takes 2 hours 58 minutes or 3 hours 16 minutes from start to finish. The down time of catchers/coaches going to the mound, 4 pitching changes over the course of 3 or 4 outs, relievers trotting in and getting eight warmup pitches, batters stepping out of the box, replays, etc is what kills the game.

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 Post subject: Re: Chris Sale Trade
PostPosted: Mon May 14, 2018 1:36 pm 
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Cashman wrote:
Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
I don't think the answer is to radically change the game. Stop using a juiced ball with low laces. That would be a start. if it weren't so easy to hit it out, guys would have to use other ways to score.



You can not say, we want quicker games and want more revenue. People want to see offense.


But I don't think most people want to see 22 strikeouts, 6 walks, and 4 home runs.

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 Post subject: Re: Chris Sale Trade
PostPosted: Mon May 14, 2018 1:38 pm 
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Joe Orr Road Rod wrote:
But I don't think most people want to see 22 strikeouts, 6 walks, and 4 home runs.
This is pretty much Matt Davidson's weekly performance.

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