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 Post subject: Tesla?
PostPosted: Tue May 15, 2018 10:56 am 
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https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/14/tesla-i ... cture.html

It will be interesting to follow this. I think their biggest mistake has been trying to build the cars themselves. They have the best technology and would be a great and profitable company if they just licensed out their tech to companies that actually know how to mass produce cars at a profit. (Ford, GM, Toyota, etc.)

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 Post subject: Re: Tesla?
PostPosted: Tue May 15, 2018 11:03 am 
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Ogie is going to pretend he knows how auto manufacturing works now.


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 Post subject: Re: Tesla?
PostPosted: Tue May 15, 2018 11:03 am 
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I can't stand Musk. Every time there is bad news regarding Tesla's profitability (or lack thereof) he comes out with a diversionary news story about SpaceX, or Hyperloop, or electric semi-trucks, or flame throwers. I'll bet they NEVER sell a single Model 3 at $35k.

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Last edited by Jaw Breaker on Tue May 15, 2018 11:06 am, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Tesla?
PostPosted: Tue May 15, 2018 11:04 am 
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Hard to believe someone wouldn't pick up the pieces and do it right.

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 Post subject: Re: Tesla?
PostPosted: Tue May 15, 2018 11:07 am 
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Tesla is the Carson Fulmer of car companies.


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 Post subject: Re: Tesla?
PostPosted: Tue May 15, 2018 11:07 am 
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If Tesla goes south I see Musk making John DeLorean look small time. Musk will become a cocaine importer and not just middle man.

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 Post subject: Re: Tesla?
PostPosted: Tue May 15, 2018 11:42 am 
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America wrote:
Ogie is going to pretend he knows how auto manufacturing works now.

I don't know how it works, but I do know how to read financial disclosures, and they aren't pretty for Tesla.

It appears Elon Musk doesn't know how auto manufacturing works either

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 Post subject: Re: Tesla?
PostPosted: Tue May 15, 2018 11:44 am 
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Hatchetman wrote:
Hard to believe someone wouldn't pick up the pieces and do it right.

Tesla has real value with the tech they've created. The company very well could survive and even thrive if they just continued to develop and sell tech to those who know how to properly utilize it.

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 Post subject: Re: Tesla?
PostPosted: Tue May 15, 2018 11:46 am 
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Hell of a cult of personality when it comes to that company and Musk.


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 Post subject: Re: Tesla?
PostPosted: Tue May 15, 2018 1:05 pm 
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 Post subject: Re: Tesla?
PostPosted: Tue May 15, 2018 1:12 pm 
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Hatchetman wrote:
Hard to believe someone wouldn't pick up the pieces and do it right.

Someone dig up Preston Tucker.

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 Post subject: Re: Tesla?
PostPosted: Tue May 15, 2018 1:24 pm 
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Musk needs to expand Tesla's domain to encompass an entire "Tesla" lifestyle, with a monthly subscription fee on top of the sale price of the car. Offer members preferred/"free" charging via a deal with 3rd party charging provider and whatever other elements of owning a car with a driveable range south of 200 miles might entail. Tesla owners have demonstrated a willingness to overpay in exchange for virtue/brand/perceived superiority signaling.


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 Post subject: Re: Tesla?
PostPosted: Tue May 15, 2018 1:31 pm 
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Hussra wrote:
Musk needs to expand Tesla's domain to encompass an entire "Tesla" lifestyle, with a monthly subscription fee on top of the sale price of the car. Offer members preferred/"free" charging via a deal with 3rd party charging provider and whatever other elements of owning a car with a driveable range south of 200 miles might entail. Tesla owners have demonstrated a willingness to overpay in exchange for virtue/brand/perceived superiority signaling.


I am a bit surprised he hasn't sliced up a falcon rocket and sold them it to the public for a 100 bucks a chunk. Seems like there would be a market for scrap that has been to outer space.


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 Post subject: Re: Tesla?
PostPosted: Tue May 15, 2018 1:38 pm 
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They are pretty cars. Wish I had they money or they sold a less expensive version.


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 Post subject: Re: Tesla?
PostPosted: Tue May 15, 2018 2:08 pm 
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Don Tiny wrote:
Hatchetman wrote:
Hard to believe someone wouldn't pick up the pieces and do it right.

Someone dig up Preston Tucker.



He's buried under Ford City.

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 Post subject: Re: Tesla?
PostPosted: Tue May 15, 2018 2:11 pm 
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Tesla would like you to know he's doing just fine, thank you.
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 Post subject: Re: Tesla?
PostPosted: Tue May 15, 2018 2:35 pm 
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Just because someone comes after and does this car better doesn’t mean Musk wasn’t great.

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 Post subject: Re: Tesla?
PostPosted: Tue May 15, 2018 2:41 pm 
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pittmike wrote:
Just because someone comes after and does this car better doesn’t mean Musk wasn’t great.

Musk certainly will be viewed as an important visionary and much more important than marketing expert Steve Jobs but I wish he'd be more practical if his goal is truly to advance the world and make big money at the same time.

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 Post subject: Re: Tesla?
PostPosted: Tue May 15, 2018 11:45 pm 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
pittmike wrote:
Just because someone comes after and does this car better doesn’t mean Musk wasn’t great.

Musk certainly will be viewed as an important visionary and much more important than marketing expert Steve Jobs but I wish he'd be more practical if his goal is truly to advance the world and make big money at the same time.

Elon Musk has certainly brought forward technology that can change the world. He just isn't going to be the guy who gets that technology to the consumer.

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 Post subject: Re: Tesla?
PostPosted: Wed May 16, 2018 6:20 am 
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Ogie Oglethorpe wrote:
Hatchetman wrote:
Hard to believe someone wouldn't pick up the pieces and do it right.

Tesla has real value with the tech they've created. The company very well could survive and even thrive if they just continued to develop and sell tech to those who know how to properly utilize it.


what tech? Their biggest achievement is the charging controller for their batteries. having thousands of individual hard cells is not a new idea, it was just always deemed too complicated. tesla proved it wasnt.

other than that, they dont do anything special... theyre just busting their ass, which is noble, but its hard to make money that way. also, their biggest problem with the model 3 is trying to do too much at once. elon admitted this. the car was supposed to be auto drive, ride sharing taxi. and, the factory its built in was supposed to be nearly FULLY automated. they now admit theres bottlenecks that havent been solved and its causing the profit loss. Elon didnt listen to his former GM executives. people were telling him why companies like toyota and hyundai still used humans for certain processes and he didn't want to hear that. now its biting him in the ass.

that said, tesla has too much street cred at this point to just belly up. i think they may have to raise the price of the model 3, but otherwise i don't see them folding anytime soon.

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 Post subject: Re: Tesla?
PostPosted: Wed May 16, 2018 7:31 am 
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IkeSouth wrote:
Ogie Oglethorpe wrote:
Hatchetman wrote:
Hard to believe someone wouldn't pick up the pieces and do it right.

Tesla has real value with the tech they've created. The company very well could survive and even thrive if they just continued to develop and sell tech to those who know how to properly utilize it.

i think they may have to raise the price of the model 3, but otherwise i don't see them folding anytime soon.


I’m curious how many reservation holders are willing to pay $50K+ on the Model 3 vs the $35K that lured half a million people to put down a deposit. We know there are production bottlenecks, but I wonder if they are also running out of people ordering loaded models, especially now that there are viable competitors in that space. I imagine they don’t want to sell at $35K as they would likely lose money on each one.

Once they announce they won’t be selling at $35K, and the tax credits end (soon), it will be a bloodbath.

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 Post subject: Re: Tesla?
PostPosted: Wed May 16, 2018 7:51 am 
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I don't have a great read on Tesla. Musk is clearly a visionary, but he needed to hire better operations folks and come up with a less capital intensive way to get his cars to market. There are people that I respect that absolutely swear that Tesla will be the greatest car company ever. And then there are others who bemoan the push toward electric vehicles and the Silicon Valley move into car manufacturing.

Below is a CNBC video link to Ron Baron, who is a vaunted long term investor. Some of this picks over the years are beyond fantastic. He is a believer, and this is not some sell side analyst. His company own about 1% of shares outstanding.

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2018/05/14/tesla-is-running-at-light-speed-billionaire-ron-baron-says.html?play=1

I have read through the financial statements. The company is sucking up capital, and the accounting is very odd because some sales have buy back guarantees. There is also a huge commitment to Solar Energy Systems.

They are just taking on too much with R&D in various businesses and trying to build everything themselves. That is hugely capital intensive. I have never owned nor will I ever purchase shares in Tesla.

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 Post subject: Re: Tesla?
PostPosted: Wed May 16, 2018 8:42 am 
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Not sure how anybody could attempt an argument afainst electric cars. The company will be fine, the only reason there are electric cars in production is because Musk gave away his technology for free to his competition.

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 Post subject: Re: Tesla?
PostPosted: Wed May 16, 2018 9:01 am 
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312player wrote:
Not sure how anybody could attempt an argument afainst electric cars. The company will be fine, the only reason there are electric cars in production is because Musk gave away his technology for free to his competition.


The argument is that the cost of batteries is still too high, and the country does not yet have the recharging infrastructure. So companies like Ford are devoting huge sums of money to electric car development, and it is an uncertain bet if consumers will want them in mass. Ford just said it will stop making passenger cars, so that is the trade-off. Cap Ex is limited, so companies have to pick a lane on where to spend dollars.

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 Post subject: Re: Tesla?
PostPosted: Wed May 16, 2018 9:28 am 
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You can see this reticence in other companies that are important. BMW makes a high end I8 at $140k and people will eat it up. But it still is a plug in hybrid not a full electric.

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 Post subject: Re: Tesla?
PostPosted: Wed May 16, 2018 9:32 am 
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pittmike wrote:
You can see this reticence in other companies that are important. BMW makes a high end I8 at $140k and people will eat it up. But it still is a plug in hybrid not a full electric.


Maybe to MANY it seem obvious that electric vehicles will dominate the future. But in that field, nothing is certain. There was a time where LNG was being pushed, diesels, and biofuels. One never knows when consumer preferences, regulations, or technological leaps will change the entire market. It makes sense to go down the electric path, but it's not the green revolution people claim. Those cars still need to be charged, and most of that power is coming from traditional power plants.

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 Post subject: Re: Tesla?
PostPosted: Wed May 16, 2018 9:36 am 
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We can't push out phone batteries that last more than 6 hours How is the industry going to produce car batteries, reliable, in mass?


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 Post subject: Re: Tesla?
PostPosted: Wed May 16, 2018 9:40 am 
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Caller Bob wrote:
We can't push out phone batteries that last more than 6 hours How is the industry going to produce car batteries, reliable, in mass?


Exactly. That is where the criticism is coming from. Folks don't believe the technology will viable and widely accepted in the upcoming decade.

I am not weighing in on which way folks should go. I am simply making the counter case to the electric car mania that some believe in.

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 Post subject: Re: Tesla?
PostPosted: Wed May 16, 2018 9:52 am 
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There are many problems that you guys started to mention. Another data point for the future though is where are the design/engineering people going? A relative of mine is in automotive engineering. He was working in transmissions. That seems to be going away and he is moving into motors more now.

Electric cars do not need transmissions.

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 Post subject: Re: Tesla?
PostPosted: Wed May 16, 2018 9:59 am 
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I would buy an electric car. Who the hell needs to go more than 200 miles in one day?

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