Burning $20 million a month and only have $40 million left

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/09/moviepa ... t-day.html

_________________
“When I walked in this morning, and saw the flag was at half mast, I thought 'alright another bureaucrat ate it.'" - Ron Swanson

I read through the disclosures. Wow, I guess people were sharing the pass with non-subscribers. They seem to have some avenues to raise more funds, but that business model probably won't hit scale in time. Oh well.

_________________
Hawaii (fuck) You

fuck,I was using mine. Was great while it lasted.

_________________
When I am stuck and need to figure something out I always remember the Immortal words of Socrates when he said:"I just drank what?"

I wonder if theaters will ever switch to variable pricing depending on the movie. They currently have different pricing based on time of day, children vs adult, and type of theater (IMAX, 3D, Dolby Vision, etc). But in general, a ticket to a movie with a $20 million budget costs the same as one with a $300 million budget.

_________________

Turns out the "subscriptions people forget about and are too lazy to cancel" model ends at charging people $10 a month to print a $10 bill every day.

I went from going to one movie about once a month to 3 movies a week

_________________
When I am stuck and need to figure something out I always remember the Immortal words of Socrates when he said:"I just drank what?"

I've started getting into stock over the past year and it's crazy how their stock $HMNY was around $3 then jumped to almost $33 and it's under $1.

_________________

And also, people would rather try to watch movies on a jail broken firestick or just wait a few months until it comes to Netflix or Redbox.

_________________

B1 article in today's WSJ. The guy they quote loves MoviePass so much that he has seen 40 movies this year with it at $9.95 a month. But then....he bought thousands of dollars worth of the parent company's stock and has essentially lost his entire investment because the company is down 93% since January.

So he saved money on movie tickets, but lost thousands on the investment. Ouch.

Sorry can't link it because of the paywall. It is called "Plot Thickens for MoviePass".

_________________
Hawaii (fuck) You

So the guys figures he's saved a ridiculous amount of money by (let's be conservative) seeing $400 (40x$10) in movies for $40.

And he thought that's a successful business model where the provider was profiting????

Exactly. I was shaking my head at the whole thing. What a terrible business model. The article actually says that MoviePass pays the entire cost of the ticket to the theater. They don't even have deals with theaters...man that is bad.

_________________
Hawaii (fuck) You

MoviePass using the health club model where you need inactive subscribers who pay but don't use the service to stay profitable is fine except for one major flaw.

people avoid going to the gym by doing things like watching a movie!

I saw that one as well. I couldn't help but laugh. Seriously, he knew he was going to use it in a manner in which MoviePass's parent could not possibly turn a profit and would actually lose money, yet still didn't see a problem with the business model.

Edit: Just saw Kirkwood's post and yeah he and I are on the same thought track here.

_________________
“When I walked in this morning, and saw the flag was at half mast, I thought 'alright another bureaucrat ate it.'" - Ron Swanson

Even though the guy is way wrong as you pointed out it happens a lot. People use something fall in love and invest. Not an analytical method.

_________________
Elections have consequences.

Guy probably thought he was buying in early on the next Netflix.

_________________
“When I walked in this morning, and saw the flag was at half mast, I thought 'alright another bureaucrat ate it.'" - Ron Swanson

What is the consensus? Should I jump in at $0.670 a share?

_________________
Rick Hahn is the best GM in baseball.

Company has 2 months of cash left, what could possibly go wrong?

_________________
“When I walked in this morning, and saw the flag was at half mast, I thought 'alright another bureaucrat ate it.'" - Ron Swanson

$300MM line of credit. Able to operate for 17 months. New features coming. Higher $$ subscription plans. Possible favorable rates with major movie theater chains.

I don't think anyone can say there is NO potential there.

I need dennis' thoughts.

_________________
Rick Hahn is the best GM in baseball.

there is no potential

Are you sure this wasn't the plot to an episode of The Office?

_________________

Each new subscription they sell today leads to an increase in the rate that they bleed cash. There is no upside when each new client equals an average additional loss of $20 per month on your balance sheet. In fact, increasing their sales would quicken their demise. That's how screwed up this business plan is

_________________
“When I walked in this morning, and saw the flag was at half mast, I thought 'alright another bureaucrat ate it.'" - Ron Swanson

Yes, that's fair. Except many businesses offer attractive, at-loss subscription plans initially and then sell value-added services to the userbase, or then tweak the model to become profitable. If MoviePass can show increased traffic to movie theaters, movie theaters will start playing ball. MoviePass app can sell push advertising. Price can go up to $15 or $20 and I'm sure they will lose few subscribers. They also can sell family plans or couples plans.

Amazon, eBay, Netflix, Facebook, Twitter and countless other websites and apps start out with much different business models operating in the red. MoviePass has 3 million subscribers. There are a lot of ways you can profit off of having 3 million people with a clear interest that makes up a large industry in our country.

There is work to be done. But this isn't impossible to make profitable.

_________________
Rick Hahn is the best GM in baseball.

For those who thought about investing when we made this thread, Movie Pass performed a 1 for 250 reverse stock split (which put the price at $14 per share). In the week following the reverse split, it fell to $0.08 per share.

In other words, ouch to anyone who bought then.

_________________
“When I walked in this morning, and saw the flag was at half mast, I thought 'alright another bureaucrat ate it.'" - Ron Swanson

I was using the service, not no more.
New restrictions
3 movies a month,no new relase blockbusters, have to take and send a pic of your ticket in.

_________________
When I am stuck and need to figure something out I always remember the Immortal words of Socrates when he said:"I just drank what?"

I just read today that they've revamped it to a: no more peak pricing, don't have to take pics of your stubs and send them, 3 movies a month, and up to a $5 discount over 3 movies. Cost stays at $9.95. Blackouts may still apply to stuff like Mission Impossible, but only for the first 2 weeks, IIRC.

We're gonna keep it a while longer. July was the only month since February where I didn't really maximize it, so it's still more than already paid for itself, and 3 movies a month is reasonable with back to school responsibilities and Premier League season upon us.

ETA: Read my post, Chas.

_________________
Just chillin' like Garret Quillin.

I already canceled 2 weeks ago,too many times I could not see the movie I wanted and I go in the middle of the day when the theaters are empty.

_________________
When I am stuck and need to figure something out I always remember the Immortal words of Socrates when he said:"I just drank what?"

If only you'd waited....I guess if you cancel you can't join again for like 9 months, but that may have just applied when we got our daughter a free 1 month trial.

Anyway, it was always too good to last forever, but as long as our cost doesn't go up, it won't really affect us, and actually seems better now that the dreaded lightning bolt won't be on every showtime for every movie. MI is still blacked out on my app, but it also says these changes will go into effect on 8/15, so I guess I'll see then.

_________________
Just chillin' like Garret Quillin.

Most movies are better enjoyed at home. Only a few action movies are better on the big screen.

_________________
the world will always the world. your entire existence is defined by your response.