Nice breakdown in the Rotoworld forum:
Quote:
---Fastball Velocity (AV)
Dylan Covey's average Velo (Brooks) was roughly 92.00 last year (70 IP) and is roughly 94.5 (35.1 IP) this year.
I like velocity gainers for two reasons: it's a great way to explain improvements and it is REALLY easy to see when it disappears. Take Lyles as a prime example. I got excited by Lyles, then uninterested in Lyles because his velocity from the Bullpen didn't carry over for long as the endurance of innings took a toll on his arm. But if you keep your eye on the velocity you don't get saddled with those 12 ERs in his last 10.1 IP. Yeah, you have to pay attention. But it's one number, and if his fastball stays up that's incredibly encouraging.
---Type of FA
His Fourseamer got creamed last year. According to Brooks he's moved almost exclusively 2-Seam. Sometimes these are classifications or small trends. He seems to have consciously changed his primary fastball from 4-Seam to Sinker.
---Arsenal good on damage, not missing bats.
Problem is that this is more likely to be a bit luck induced, if just because of sample size (Missing bats the denominator would be per pitch not per AB of course). But I like seeing pitchers avoid damage with their whole repertoire as opposed to having a wide split between pitches. Covey has the former right now, with no pitch giving up a better than .400 SLG. But his overall whiff% is sub-8.00%. If that continues there's just no way in hell he's touching his 8.41 K/9. This might be closer to a 6.50 K/9 guy. Maybe he can be a low-to-mid 7's.
---How good's the Change?
He does have great results on one pitch in particular this year that is very different from last year-- the Change. It is a pitch that makes sense to be a bit better because he's throwing harder. Has allowed only a .143 SLG and has the highest Whiff% of any individual pitch, a very respectable 16.67% Whiff%. He throws the Sinker/Fastball most, Slider second most, and his Curve and Change under 10%. If his Change-Up continues to produce these results, he should DEFINITELY try to throw it more. His Slider is nothing special and he is a mostly fastball thrower. The Change-Up is the pitch that has potential.
Overall, between White Sox and lack of whiffs, he's probably not worth owning long term in most Shallow League Formats, but I do think there's something intriguing going on here, and I do think I'd be willing to gain confidence in him in good match-ups.
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