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PostPosted: Wed Jul 18, 2018 12:39 pm 
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good dolphin wrote:
juschill wrote:
good dolphin wrote:
juschill wrote:
Frank Coztansa wrote:
The most recent success is turning a mediocre pitcher into Jimenez and Cease.


Based on Hahn's results in the Sale trade and the wash that was the Eaton trade I'd be hesitant to declare victory in this trade until both of these guys are successful major leaguers. Hahn hasn't outsmarted anybody yet.


Eaton has barely played an inning for them. Meanwhile, the Sox have an emerging MLB starter, a fast rising minor league starter and Giolito.


Giolito has a -0.7 WAR this year but his last two starts were not disasters. He was 1.5 last year.

Lopez has a 1.6 WAR this year and is trending downward. He was 0 last year.

Eaton has a 0.8 WAR since leaving the White Sox.

Ergo, the trade is a wash.


more sophisticated analysis

The Sox were obviously trading for the player's present value


You're right. Your "eye test" and your fact that Lopez has pitched 100 games certainly point to you as the next incarnation of Bill James. I'm sure they will both be perennial Cy Young candidates.


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PostPosted: Wed Jul 18, 2018 12:45 pm 
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juschill wrote:
good dolphin wrote:
juschill wrote:
good dolphin wrote:
juschill wrote:
Frank Coztansa wrote:
The most recent success is turning a mediocre pitcher into Jimenez and Cease.


Based on Hahn's results in the Sale trade and the wash that was the Eaton trade I'd be hesitant to declare victory in this trade until both of these guys are successful major leaguers. Hahn hasn't outsmarted anybody yet.


Eaton has barely played an inning for them. Meanwhile, the Sox have an emerging MLB starter, a fast rising minor league starter and Giolito.


Giolito has a -0.7 WAR this year but his last two starts were not disasters. He was 1.5 last year.

Lopez has a 1.6 WAR this year and is trending downward. He was 0 last year.

Eaton has a 0.8 WAR since leaving the White Sox.

Ergo, the trade is a wash.


more sophisticated analysis

The Sox were obviously trading for the player's present value


You're right. Your "eye test" and your fact that Lopez has pitched 100 games certainly point to you as the next incarnation of Bill James. I'm sure they will both be perennial Cy Young candidates.


I didn't want to point it out earlier but I never said pitched in 100 games.

You don't have to be Bill James to recognize the trade was not a wash.

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PostPosted: Wed Jul 18, 2018 1:09 pm 
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good dolphin wrote:
You don't have to be Bill James to recognize the trade was not a wash.


You're right. You just need an eye test. I've been convinced.


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PostPosted: Wed Jul 18, 2018 2:07 pm 
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juschill wrote:
good dolphin wrote:
You don't have to be Bill James to recognize the trade was not a wash.


You're right. You just need an eye test. I've been convinced.


Not my eyes. Take a cursory look at opinion pieces on the trade and they will say the same thing. But maybe you have heightened knowledge of the situation.

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PostPosted: Thu Jul 19, 2018 6:35 am 
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I thought this was interesting:

http://www.chicagonow.com/future-sox/20 ... ing-about/


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PostPosted: Thu Jul 19, 2018 8:10 am 
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good dolphin wrote:
juschill wrote:
good dolphin wrote:
You don't have to be Bill James to recognize the trade was not a wash.


You're right. You just need an eye test. I've been convinced.


Not my eyes. Take a cursory look at opinion pieces on the trade and they will say the same thing. But maybe you have heightened knowledge of the situation.


You're right. You've convinced me. The eye test is all you need. Why is Fangraphs still in business?


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PostPosted: Thu Jul 19, 2018 9:29 am 
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juschill wrote:
good dolphin wrote:
juschill wrote:
good dolphin wrote:
You don't have to be Bill James to recognize the trade was not a wash.


You're right. You just need an eye test. I've been convinced.


Not my eyes. Take a cursory look at opinion pieces on the trade and they will say the same thing. But maybe you have heightened knowledge of the situation.


You're right. You've convinced me. The eye test is all you need. Why is Fangraphs still in business?


good recap of what I said

your turn to get the last word

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PostPosted: Thu Jul 19, 2018 10:35 am 
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good dolphin wrote:
juschill wrote:
good dolphin wrote:
juschill wrote:
good dolphin wrote:
You don't have to be Bill James to recognize the trade was not a wash.


You're right. You just need an eye test. I've been convinced.


Not my eyes. Take a cursory look at opinion pieces on the trade and they will say the same thing. But maybe you have heightened knowledge of the situation.


You're right. You've convinced me. The eye test is all you need. Why is Fangraphs still in business?


good recap of what I said

your turn to get the last word


You apparently need the last word. Have at it. You have seniority.


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PostPosted: Thu Jul 19, 2018 11:01 am 
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Cashman wrote:



Thanks for this, never heard of him before.

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PostPosted: Thu Jul 19, 2018 11:03 am 
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FrankDrebin wrote:
Cashman wrote:



Thanks for this, never heard of him before.



No worries. I heard about him a couple weeks ago. This is some good stuff.


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PostPosted: Wed Jul 25, 2018 7:57 am 
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Well, they have their #1. Now sign him to a long term deal and fill in around him

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PostPosted: Wed Jul 25, 2018 8:11 am 
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Mac and Parkins were talking to one of the writers yesterday and he was glowing about Kopech. Said a pitching coach down there got to him and convinced him that "pitching" at 96-97 was better than just throwing at 100. Supposedly it is working really well. 11 Ks last time out.

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PostPosted: Wed Jul 25, 2018 8:13 am 
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pittmike wrote:
Mac and Parkins were talking to one of the writers yesterday and he was glowing about Kopech. Said a pitching coach down there got to him and convinced him that "pitching" at 96-97 was better than just throwing at 100. Supposedly it is working really well. 11 Ks last time out.

Actually that was two starts ago, he had another great one since with 9 strike outs.

Bring him up!


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PostPosted: Wed Jul 25, 2018 8:29 am 
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rogers park bryan wrote:
pittmike wrote:
Mac and Parkins were talking to one of the writers yesterday and he was glowing about Kopech. Said a pitching coach down there got to him and convinced him that "pitching" at 96-97 was better than just throwing at 100. Supposedly it is working really well. 11 Ks last time out.

Actually that was two starts ago, he had another great one since with 9 strike outs.

Bring him up!


OK. You twisted my arm. They have two #1 and a few others who will also be there in about a year

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PostPosted: Wed Jul 25, 2018 9:16 am 
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If he throws good today he has to make his next start with the big club. There would be no reason to hold him back any longer.


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PostPosted: Wed Jul 25, 2018 12:25 pm 
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He will replace Shields once he is traded.


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PostPosted: Wed Jul 25, 2018 12:49 pm 
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Polecat666 wrote:
He will replace Shields once he is traded.


That would make sense.

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PostPosted: Wed Jul 25, 2018 12:58 pm 
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Polecat666 wrote:
He will replace Shields once he is traded.


Shields has Cub written all over him.

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PostPosted: Wed Jul 25, 2018 3:04 pm 
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And Eloy will be up when Avi's traded.


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PostPosted: Wed Jul 25, 2018 10:31 pm 
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good dolphin wrote:
Well, they have their #1. Now sign him to a long term deal and fill in around him


Rodon has looked better than I've ever seen him. I think at worst he's an average major league starter. Hopefully he can maintain this run and develop into something better than that.


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PostPosted: Thu Jul 26, 2018 8:01 am 
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WaitingforRuffcorn wrote:
Polecat666 wrote:
He will replace Shields once he is traded.


Shields has Cub written all over him.



Not after last night.


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PostPosted: Thu Jul 26, 2018 8:02 am 
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Nardi wrote:
And Eloy will be up when Avi's traded.



He needs to be up ASAP. I don't think it has anything to do with Avi. One of them can DH.


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PostPosted: Thu Jul 26, 2018 8:03 am 
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Warren Newson wrote:
good dolphin wrote:
Well, they have their #1. Now sign him to a long term deal and fill in around him


Rodon has looked better than I've ever seen him. I think at worst he's an average major league starter. Hopefully he can maintain this run and develop into something better than that.



If he doesn't have injury issues, he is an ACE IMO.


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PostPosted: Thu Jul 26, 2018 8:52 am 
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Cashman wrote:
Warren Newson wrote:
good dolphin wrote:
Well, they have their #1. Now sign him to a long term deal and fill in around him


Rodon has looked better than I've ever seen him. I think at worst he's an average major league starter. Hopefully he can maintain this run and develop into something better than that.



If he doesn't have injury issues, he is an ACE IMO.


He needs more than good health to be an ace. He needs to throw his slider and his upper 90's fast ball for strikes consistently. If he can do that, he's Chris Sale, if he can't he's Javier Vazquez.


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PostPosted: Thu Jul 26, 2018 9:19 am 
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Warren Newson wrote:
Cashman wrote:
Warren Newson wrote:
good dolphin wrote:
Well, they have their #1. Now sign him to a long term deal and fill in around him


Rodon has looked better than I've ever seen him. I think at worst he's an average major league starter. Hopefully he can maintain this run and develop into something better than that.



If he doesn't have injury issues, he is an ACE IMO.


He needs more than good health to be an ace. He needs to throw his slider and his upper 90's fast ball for strikes consistently. If he can do that, he's Chris Sale, if he can't he's Javier Vazquez.



There was a stat, tweeted out yesterday:

This season
Fastball 43% .235 OBA
Slider 24% .067 OBA
Sinker 20% .310 OBA
Change 13% .143 OBA


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PostPosted: Thu Jul 26, 2018 9:21 am 
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Shields is still owed over $5M by the Sox (what an incredibly god awful contract that was). They would have to eat most of that to move him. I would applaud them if they do it but unfortunately i don’t see it happening.


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PostPosted: Thu Jul 26, 2018 10:50 am 
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Keyser Soze wrote:
Shields is still owed over $5M by the Sox (what an incredibly god awful contract that was). They would have to eat most of that to move him. I would applaud them if they do it but unfortunately i don’t see it happening.


I agree with you on that. Shields is DONE as a pitcher and trotting him out every 4-5 days is a waste of a game in my view.

I watched that game last night on the Angels channel out here. It was painful to watch and listen to(the Angels have always had the shittiest announcers imaginable). Why Renteria didn't lift this guy after the 4th inning was stupid. Shields I believe had something wrong with his elbow or somewhere in his arm and was losing feeling in his fingers. He was constantly shaking his right hand like his fingers were numb.

I'll also say that I lost a lot of respect for Pujols for his standing and watching the homer he hit and then stealing 3rd base while Shields was obviously suffering on the mound. I wanted Shields to drill the asshole or have the next pitcher drill him when he came up again. I hate Mike Souscia(sp?) anyway. He always does the most chickenshit things as a manager.

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PostPosted: Thu Jul 26, 2018 11:24 am 
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Cashman wrote:
Warren Newson wrote:
good dolphin wrote:
Well, they have their #1. Now sign him to a long term deal and fill in around him


Rodon has looked better than I've ever seen him. I think at worst he's an average major league starter. Hopefully he can maintain this run and develop into something better than that.



If he doesn't have injury issues, he is an ACE IMO.

If Rodon is your ace that is a bad group of starting pitchers.

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PostPosted: Thu Jul 26, 2018 1:15 pm 
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RFDC wrote:
Cashman wrote:
Warren Newson wrote:
good dolphin wrote:
Well, they have their #1. Now sign him to a long term deal and fill in around him


Rodon has looked better than I've ever seen him. I think at worst he's an average major league starter. Hopefully he can maintain this run and develop into something better than that.



If he doesn't have injury issues, he is an ACE IMO.

If Rodon is your ace that is a bad group of starting pitchers.


When Rodon is 1) healthy and B) has innings under his belt, an ace. He was an ace under those caveats in 2016, 2017, and 2018.

Of course now I'm waiting for the other shoe to drop. His shoulder.


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PostPosted: Thu Jul 26, 2018 1:18 pm 
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RFDC wrote:
If Rodon is your ace that is a bad group of starting pitchers.


That's a real bad take. Rodon will never have the career Lester has had, but I'd take him over Lester for their next 60 starts.

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