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 Post subject: Re: Adam Pace Scorecard
PostPosted: Mon Sep 17, 2018 8:05 am 
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America wrote:
The 49ers were going to trade out of the pick. If not to the Bears someone else. No telling if "someone else" would've taken (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky but assuming they did all bets are off on what the Bears would have done. I don't think they were certain of taking a QB in the first that year. They were certain about (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky specifically but the position not so much.
I doubt the 49ers were trading out of that pick. The Bears offered the unique chance to get a bunch of picks and still get whatever player they wanted.

But, once again, if someone jumps up and grabs (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky then there are two other quarterbacks available with about as good of a chance as being a success.

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 Post subject: Re: Adam Pace Scorecard
PostPosted: Mon Sep 17, 2018 9:03 am 
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Do you think the thus far difference between Solomon Thomas and Mitch is worth 3.67, 3.72 and 4.11? I do, definitely. Bears outlook for recouping better results from a top 5 pick that year are much higher than the 49ers. Mitch probably doesn't even have to be very good to be way better than Thomas.

And honestly, right now having watched the first two weeks of Watson, I'd probably say the same thing about him. I'd rather have (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky than Watson even if it meant keeping those picks. It's hard to say because (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky left a lot to be desired week one, but Mitch did not actively lose the Bears that game against GB. Or at least not to the extent Watson has both weeks.

So from the vantage point of assessing the benefits of the next most likely picks after (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky I'm still feeling OK about the trade. Not thrilled, but definitely not still hung up on it now.


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 Post subject: Re: Adam Pace Scorecard
PostPosted: Mon Sep 17, 2018 10:57 am 
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America wrote:
Do you think the thus far difference between Solomon Thomas and Mitch is worth 3.67, 3.72 and 4.11? I do, definitely. Bears outlook for recouping better results from a top 5 pick that year are much higher than the 49ers. Mitch probably doesn't even have to be very good to be way better than Thomas.
It's not about (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky and Thomas. They could have had Mahomes or Watson. That is who they passed on to spend a lot of picks for (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky.

America wrote:
And honestly, right now having watched the first two weeks of Watson, I'd probably say the same thing about him. I'd rather have (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky than Watson even if it meant keeping those picks. It's hard to say because (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky left a lot to be desired week one, but Mitch did not actively lose the Bears that game against GB. Or at least not to the extent Watson has both weeks.
Watson is still ahead of (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky but I agree and hope that (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky passes him. However, if Pace was smart enough to know that Watson wasn't going to be that good(and Pace almost certainly isn't) then he should have been willing to draft Mahomes in the worst case scenario where the 49ers trade way down.

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 Post subject: Re: Adam Pace Scorecard
PostPosted: Mon Sep 17, 2018 11:05 am 
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It is pretty conceivable that the Bears recognized Watson's massive injury risk and were not willing to draft him in the top 10 because of it. Worth noting no team deemed Watson worthy of a top 10 pick anyways.


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 Post subject: Re: Adam Pace Scorecard
PostPosted: Mon Sep 17, 2018 11:09 am 
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America wrote:
It is pretty conceivable that the Bears recognized Watson's massive injury risk and were not willing to draft him in the top 10 because of it. Worth noting no team deemed Watson worthy of a top 10 pick anyways.

That's fine. Then you draft Mahomes in the very unlikely event of a team taking (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky with the 2nd pick and the 49ers trading down far enough that they don't get their guy.

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 Post subject: Re: Adam Pace Scorecard
PostPosted: Mon Sep 17, 2018 11:10 am 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
America wrote:
It is pretty conceivable that the Bears recognized Watson's massive injury risk and were not willing to draft him in the top 10 because of it. Worth noting no team deemed Watson worthy of a top 10 pick anyways.

That's fine. Then you draft Mahomes in the very unlikely event of a team taking (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky with the 2nd pick and the 49ers trading down far enough that they don't get their guy.

Mahomes probably sucks in Chicago.


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 Post subject: Re: Adam Pace Scorecard
PostPosted: Mon Sep 17, 2018 11:13 am 
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Caller Bob wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
America wrote:
It is pretty conceivable that the Bears recognized Watson's massive injury risk and were not willing to draft him in the top 10 because of it. Worth noting no team deemed Watson worthy of a top 10 pick anyways.

That's fine. Then you draft Mahomes in the very unlikely event of a team taking (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky with the 2nd pick and the 49ers trading down far enough that they don't get their guy.

Mahomes probably sucks in Chicago.
That's certainly possible. That really isn't the point here. It's hard to make an argument that (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky, Mahomes, or even Watson were separated by that much that you give up all of those picks because (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky may have been off the board one pick prior to you picking.

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 Post subject: Re: Adam Pace Scorecard
PostPosted: Mon Sep 17, 2018 11:28 am 
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There was a fundamental uncertainty that the Bears didn't know (a) who else was offering to trade up with San Francisco (b) what the other prospective bidders wanted and (c) who San Francisco ultimately was targeting. Without knowing those things they were really put in a bind. I dont even think it was masterful gamesmanship by San Francisco, mainly because they appear to have wound up with the fattest bust of the 2017 draft (so far at least).

Its hard to really assess what the Bears missed out on. San Francisco went trade-crazy with the picks they got. It is interesting that one of the picks did turn into Alvin Kamara, but really that's just a fun anecdote and not really indicative of what the Bears gave up. I guess it just so happens the 49ers traded for the draft slot that eventually turned into the biggest steal of the 2017 draft.

I think you have to take the Mack trade into account too. By getting (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky and locking him down on that rookie deal they enabled the gigantic Mack contract. Who knows how willing they were to head into season with Glennon as the starter for the whole year? I dont think they were interested in Mahomes or Watson...or at least were interested in investing a top 10 pick into them. I cant prove that, but you cant prove against it.

I do think its silly to assume they were just GOING to draft a QB and it didn't matter who. NFL front offices dont think like that.


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 Post subject: Re: Adam Pace Scorecard
PostPosted: Mon Sep 17, 2018 11:37 am 
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America wrote:
There was a fundamental uncertainty that the Bears didn't know (a) who else was offering to trade up with San Francisco (b) what the other prospective bidders wanted and (c) who San Francisco ultimately was targeting. Without knowing those things they were really put in a bind. I dont even think it was masterful gamesmanship by San Francisco, mainly because they appear to have wound up with the fattest bust of the 2017 draft (so far at least).

Its hard to really assess what the Bears missed out on. San Francisco went trade-crazy with the picks they got. It is interesting that one of the picks did turn into Alvin Kamara, but really that's just a fun anecdote and not really indicative of what the Bears gave up. I guess it just so happens the 49ers traded for the draft slot that eventually turned into the biggest steal of the 2017 draft.
Once again, the uncertainty was only if you thought that (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky was a sure fire franchise quarterback, and in year 2 there is no reason to think he was. He was a lottery ticket just like most first round quarterbacks are. The margin between him and the other two guys, at the time of being drafted was not large enough to justify moving up one pick because of the small chance that someone else grabs him and the 49ers trade down.

America wrote:
I think you have to take the Mack trade into account too. By getting (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky and locking him down on that rookie deal they enabled the gigantic Mack contract. Who knows how willing they were to head into season with Glennon as the starter for the whole year? I dont think they were interested in Mahomes or Watson...or at least were interested in investing a top 10 pick into them. I cant prove that, but you cant prove against it.
The Mack trade was HARDER to do because they already gave up a lot of picks. Luckily, the Bears found a way to not give up a ton for Mack.

America wrote:
I do think its silly to assume they were just GOING to draft a QB and it didn't matter who. NFL front offices dont think like that.
If they have a need, and there is a quarterback worthy of a high pick then they certainly do. However, if you are now arguing that Pace didn't even want Mahomes as a backup option if (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky was gone and would have passed on him for as you put it, the biggest bust so far of the 2017 draft, then that is much worse than what I am saying.

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 Post subject: Re: Adam Pace Scorecard
PostPosted: Mon Sep 17, 2018 11:42 am 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:

America wrote:
I do think its silly to assume they were just GOING to draft a QB and it didn't matter who. NFL front offices dont think like that.
If they have a need, and there is a quarterback worthy of a high pick then they certainly do.

I don't think they do. Most GM's have pretty different evaluations of each QB. They don't just take the top 3 prospects and make them interchangeable.

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 Post subject: Re: Adam Pace Scorecard
PostPosted: Mon Sep 17, 2018 11:45 am 
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FavreFan wrote:
I don't think they do. Most GM's have pretty different evaluations of each QB. They don't just take the top 3 prospects and make them interchangeable.
Well, what do we think he thought of Mahomes and Watson?

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 Post subject: Re: Adam Pace Scorecard
PostPosted: Mon Sep 17, 2018 11:47 am 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
FavreFan wrote:
I don't think they do. Most GM's have pretty different evaluations of each QB. They don't just take the top 3 prospects and make them interchangeable.
Well, what do we think he thought of Mahomes and Watson?

Impossible to know. Clearly liked them less than Mitch, I think that's about the only thing we can say we know for certain.

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 Post subject: Re: Adam Pace Scorecard
PostPosted: Mon Sep 17, 2018 11:47 am 
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I just cant imagine an NFL front office going through the tedious and arduous process of scouting, interviewing and reviewing a draft class of QB's and not coming out with a clear cut favorite. There is just no way the Bears went into that off-season thinking that "as long as we get one of the top QB's its all we need, since they are equally risky lottery picks". That's just not the mentality any NFL front office has.

Its much closer to baseball thinking.


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 Post subject: Re: Adam Pace Scorecard
PostPosted: Mon Sep 17, 2018 11:52 am 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
FavreFan wrote:
I don't think they do. Most GM's have pretty different evaluations of each QB. They don't just take the top 3 prospects and make them interchangeable.
Well, what do we think he thought of Mahomes and Watson?

We absolutely do not know though I think it is very obvious they were not enamored with either of them the same way they were with (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky.

I think a more interesting question is where (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky would've gone had the Bears not traded up. My guess is he still would've gone 1.2 and the 49ers would've just made the trade with someone else who would've snagged him. The fact that 7 picks went by before Mahomes and 9 picks before Watson shows that whoever else was looking to move up to 1.2, consensus seems to be it was the Browns, was almost certainly aiming for (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky.


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 Post subject: Re: Adam Pace Scorecard
PostPosted: Mon Sep 17, 2018 11:55 am 
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I went back to our draft thread.

viewtopic.php?f=72&t=104150&start=300

I linked to the WFR post that shows rankings, and it has three QB's in the First Round. Many felt Mahomes would be outside the first round. Anyway, it is interesting to see what we all thought before Pace made the move.

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 Post subject: Re: Adam Pace Scorecard
PostPosted: Mon Sep 17, 2018 12:01 pm 
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I genuinely think Bears fans believe the two thirds and a fourth they gave up for (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky constitutes a bigger pricetag than what they gave up for Mack. There is no way people could actually know what the Bears gave up in the (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky trade-up and still speak of the package in as hyperbolic terms as "giving up the farm" and "hampering their ability to make further moves". It was three day-3 picks. Compare that to what QB trade-ups have cost in the past.


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 Post subject: Re: Adam Pace Scorecard
PostPosted: Mon Sep 17, 2018 12:02 pm 
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America wrote:
I genuinely think Bears fans believe the two thirds and a fourth they gave up for (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky constitutes a bigger pricetag than what they gave up for Mack. There is no way people could actually know what the Bears gave up in the (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky trade-up and still speak of the package in as hyperbolic terms as "giving up the farm" and "hampering their ability to make further moves". It was three day-3 picks. Compare that to what QB trade-ups have cost in the past.


It's interesting you lost your shit in that thread after they moved up as most everyone from the board did (page 15 I think).

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 Post subject: Re: Adam Pace Scorecard
PostPosted: Mon Sep 17, 2018 12:06 pm 
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denisdman wrote:
America wrote:
I genuinely think Bears fans believe the two thirds and a fourth they gave up for (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky constitutes a bigger pricetag than what they gave up for Mack. There is no way people could actually know what the Bears gave up in the (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky trade-up and still speak of the package in as hyperbolic terms as "giving up the farm" and "hampering their ability to make further moves". It was three day-3 picks. Compare that to what QB trade-ups have cost in the past.


It's interesting you lost your shit in that thread after they moved up as most everyone from the board did (page 15 I think).

I was upset because I thought they were trading up for Thomas. There was a good 5-10 minutes between the trade going down and the pick being announced.

When they selected (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky I instantly understood.


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 Post subject: Re: Adam Pace Scorecard
PostPosted: Mon Sep 17, 2018 12:15 pm 
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America wrote:
I just cant imagine an NFL front office going through the tedious and arduous process of scouting, interviewing and reviewing a draft class of QB's and not coming out with a clear cut favorite. There is just no way the Bears went into that off-season thinking that "as long as we get one of the top QB's its all we need, since they are equally risky lottery picks". That's just not the mentality any NFL front office has.

Its much closer to baseball thinking.

I have no doubt that they have a favorite but it's probably not clear cut especially when you have a guy like (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky that did have a few question marks himself. In fact, I'd say that with how many quarterbacks go high it means that many front offices are willing to accept getting who would otherwise be their second or third choice in the first round. Do we really think that the Cardinals would have chosen Josh Rosen if they had the #1 pick in the draft? The Chiefs, that loved Mahomes enough to trade up for him, we willing to let 9 teams pass on him. I don't think it's as simple as you guys are making it which is "Pick best quarterback and then get them no matter what". However, maybe other GM's aren't as bold as Pace is.

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 Post subject: Re: Adam Pace Scorecard
PostPosted: Mon Sep 17, 2018 12:35 pm 
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denisdman wrote:
I went back to our draft thread.

viewtopic.php?f=72&t=104150&start=300

I linked to the WFR post that shows rankings, and it has three QB's in the First Round. Many felt Mahomes would be outside the first round. Anyway, it is interesting to see what we all thought before Pace made the move.

Shoulda listened to FF. (ignore Lattimore's first two games this season)

FavreFan wrote:
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newper wrote:
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If Pace doesn't stop pinching pennies they are going to be forced into Marshon Lattimore. Lattimore is great and had an impressive combine but that is very high for a CB.

Very high for a safety as well, but seems they are running out of options at 3.


I do think these are exceptional S and CB.

Lattimore's 40 time would have been top end for a WR

If I was a Bears fan I wouldn't be upset about Lattimore. The way I look at it, I'd trade that pick for Jalen Ramsey right now. If you're getting a similar player, I don't see why you wouldn't strongly consider Lattimore considering the need.

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 Post subject: Re: Adam Pace Scorecard
PostPosted: Mon Sep 17, 2018 5:05 pm 
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Amari Cooper was Paces guy in his 1st draft. Pace figured he didn’t have to move up to get him and was wrong and wound up panicking and taking White instead and it blew up on him because of the injury. That’s why Pace traded up for Mitch. He panicked, again, thinking he’d lose ‘his guy’ and wanted to fix the present by using the past as a springboard.


Look, Pace is a dufus whos in over his head, at least when it comes to drafting. If this team is going to win it’s going to have to come from the coaches being competent and Pace getting lucky on some of his picks. Outside of that? Yeah, more of the same shit we’ve been seeing these last 5-6 years. I hate this reality, but I can’t see it for anything else. This is what it is. We have a boob for a GM and a clown college for an entire front office.

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 Post subject: Re: Adam Pace Scorecard
PostPosted: Mon Sep 17, 2018 5:05 pm 
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Traded up for Floyd, which made really no sense at all to anyone.


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 Post subject: Re: Adam Pace Scorecard
PostPosted: Mon Sep 17, 2018 6:16 pm 
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denisdman wrote:
I went back to our draft thread.

viewtopic.php?f=72&t=104150&start=300

I linked to the WFR post that shows rankings, and it has three QB's in the First Round. Many felt Mahomes would be outside the first round. Anyway, it is interesting to see what we all thought before Pace made the move.


Great bump!

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 Post subject: Re: Adam Pace Scorecard
PostPosted: Mon Sep 17, 2018 6:41 pm 
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Nas wrote:
denisdman wrote:
I went back to our draft thread.

viewtopic.php?f=72&t=104150&start=300

I linked to the WFR post that shows rankings, and it has three QB's in the First Round. Many felt Mahomes would be outside the first round. Anyway, it is interesting to see what we all thought before Pace made the move.


Great bump!


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YEP!

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 Post subject: Re: Adam Pace Scorecard
PostPosted: Mon Sep 17, 2018 6:51 pm 
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NME wrote:
Yeah, more of the same shit we’ve been seeing these last 5-6 years. I hate this reality, but I can’t see it for anything else. This is what it is. We have a boob for a GM and a clown college for an entire front office.

this quote here makes me wonder: will allen robinson be better than brandon marshall? even tho marshall is what he is (in much the same way popeye is what he yam) he flat out produced for the bears (even managing 61/721/8 in 13 games during his oft-injured 2014 season) and had at least one more proper season in him when they ran him out of down during/after the 2014 season. methinks brandon marshall could have been pretty useful in ga$e's offense during that SOLID 2015 season.

plus emery did pretty good snagging alshon in the 2nd round in 2012 or whatever. other than that, however, *farting noise*

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 Post subject: Re: Adam Pace Scorecard
PostPosted: Mon Sep 17, 2018 6:55 pm 
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If Robinson is anything near what Marshall was for the Bears that signing will be a grand slam. Marshall was a bonafide stud in Chicago.


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 Post subject: Re: Adam Pace Scorecard
PostPosted: Mon Sep 17, 2018 6:58 pm 
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America wrote:
If Robinson is anything near what Marshall was for the Bears that signing will be a grand slam. Marshall was a bonafide stud in Chicago.


I agree minus being a major distraction.

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 Post subject: Re: Adam Pace Scorecard
PostPosted: Mon Sep 17, 2018 7:03 pm 
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1500 yards 10+ TD's...as long as he isn't an outright criminal I dont care.


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 Post subject: Re: Adam Pace Scorecard
PostPosted: Tue Sep 18, 2018 8:29 am 
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America wrote:
Traded up for Floyd, which made really no sense at all to anyone.


Yes it did. The Giants were poised to take him one pick before the Bear.

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 Post subject: Re: Adam Pace Scorecard
PostPosted: Tue Sep 18, 2018 8:33 am 
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NME wrote:
Amari Cooper was Paces guy in his 1st draft. Pace figured he didn’t have to move up to get him and was wrong and wound up panicking and taking White instead and it blew up on him because of the injury. That’s why Pace traded up for Mitch. He panicked, again, thinking he’d lose ‘his guy’ and wanted to fix the present by using the past as a springboard.


.


He didn't panic. It was well known by about a week before the draft that Cooper was going 1.

Anyway, we wouldn't be all that thrilled with the pick right now if he had taken Cooper, either.

That draft was destined for failure because of sweaty teddy and ownership. Pace was hired late and the scouting department was in flux. Pace was saddled with Emery's guys through draft day.

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