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 Post subject: Re: Mitch has potential
PostPosted: Thu Oct 25, 2018 1:01 pm 
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FavreFan wrote:
So just based on stats then? We've tried explaining to you why that's a flawed, at best, comparison.

I don't think Mitch is currently doing better relative to his peers during the season in question than Jay did that year.

It would interesting to talk about whether the league had better QB's in 2009 than it does now. Despite clear statistical evidence to the contrary (which is really irrelevant), I would say no. The three best QB's in the NFL now are the same three best QB's in the NFL then, that club was actually one larger then than it is now.


Last edited by America on Thu Oct 25, 2018 1:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Mitch has potential
PostPosted: Thu Oct 25, 2018 1:03 pm 
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FavreFan wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
FavreFan wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
You think the Bears will trade him this offseason?

I think if they tried they aren't getting two first round picks and a starting caliber QB back :lol:

I think they would as long as he keeps this up. (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky has made a pretty big leap this season and will be cheap for a while.

He's only got two more cheap years after this. That's another downside to the whole "He's young, you have to be patient and let him develop" mindset. At the rate he's currently developing, he's not really the valuable asset on a rookie contract that you had hoped for when building the team around that contract.

Really three more years. I think his 5th year option is for like $13m, which is still a bargain.


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 Post subject: Re: Mitch has potential
PostPosted: Thu Oct 25, 2018 1:04 pm 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
FavreFan wrote:
So just based on stats then? We've tried explaining to you why that's a flawed, at best, comparison.

I don't think Mitch is currently doing better relative to his peers during the season in question than Jay did that year.
It doesn't matter that quarterback play is as good as it has been in a long time. There is a lot of young talent in the league along with many guys who are playing really well at an age they should be retired or backups or Eli Manning. If Brady, Brees, and Rodgers retired tomorrow does that mean that (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky is playing better?

No, but it improves (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky's standing to the rest of the league.


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 Post subject: Re: Mitch has potential
PostPosted: Thu Oct 25, 2018 1:05 pm 
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FavreFan wrote:
He's only got two more cheap years after this. That's another downside to the whole "He's young, you have to be patient and let him develop" mindset. At the rate he's currently developing, he's not really the valuable asset on a rookie contract that you had hoped for when building the team around that contract.
You've already decided his statistics don't matter so I'm not really sure how you are basing this.

If he throws for 34 touchdowns and 14 interceptions and 4200 yards then he is already a really good NFL quarterback with it being obvious that he is still missing throws that he likely will make with more game experience.

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 Post subject: Re: Mitch has potential
PostPosted: Thu Oct 25, 2018 1:06 pm 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
FavreFan wrote:
So just based on stats then? We've tried explaining to you why that's a flawed, at best, comparison.

I don't think Mitch is currently doing better relative to his peers during the season in question than Jay did that year.
It doesn't matter that quarterback play is as good as it has been in a long time. There is a lot of young talent in the league along with many guys who are playing really well at an age they should be retired or backups or Eli Manning. If Brady, Brees, and Rodgers retired tomorrow does that mean that (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky is playing better?

No, but his value in the league would certainly rise from it.

But I don't understand why you think it's not valid to compare Mitch to his peers but it is valid to compare him to a QB performance from a decade ago when passing offenses were radically different. That doesn't make any sense, unless you've already decided what Mitch is and are trying to work backwards to justify it.

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 Post subject: Re: Mitch has potential
PostPosted: Thu Oct 25, 2018 1:07 pm 
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America wrote:
FavreFan wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
FavreFan wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
You think the Bears will trade him this offseason?

I think if they tried they aren't getting two first round picks and a starting caliber QB back :lol:

I think they would as long as he keeps this up. (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky has made a pretty big leap this season and will be cheap for a while.

He's only got two more cheap years after this. That's another downside to the whole "He's young, you have to be patient and let him develop" mindset. At the rate he's currently developing, he's not really the valuable asset on a rookie contract that you had hoped for when building the team around that contract.

Really three more years. I think his 5th year option is for like $13m, which is still a bargain.

But it's two more years and then extension time, and if he's not worth that extension, this conversation is moot anyway.

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 Post subject: Re: Mitch has potential
PostPosted: Thu Oct 25, 2018 1:08 pm 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
FavreFan wrote:
He's only got two more cheap years after this. That's another downside to the whole "He's young, you have to be patient and let him develop" mindset. At the rate he's currently developing, he's not really the valuable asset on a rookie contract that you had hoped for when building the team around that contract.
You've already decided his statistics don't matter so I'm not really sure how you are basing this.

I've made it clear that the best way to compare the two seasons is by comparing them to what their peers did/are doing during the seasons in question.

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 Post subject: Re: Mitch has potential
PostPosted: Thu Oct 25, 2018 1:10 pm 
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FavreFan wrote:
No, but his value in the league would certainly rise from it.
He can't control how good other players are. He can control how good he is and so far he is on pace for a pretty good year in his second year.

FavreFan wrote:
But I don't understand why you think it's not valid to compare Mitch to his peers but it is valid to compare him to a QB performance from a decade ago when passing offenses were radically different. That doesn't make any sense, unless you've already decided what Mitch is and are trying to work backwards to justify it.
Hank brought up Cutler. I explained why it is different. He's playing better than Cutler and at a younger age. Cutler got a lot of grief in years 5+ with it really taking off in year 7+ for his play.

You can compare him to others in the league if you want. I want to see (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky play well. If it so happens that Brees, Rodgers, and Brady are still better than him in his second year I will deal with it and hope that (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky improves more and the already good statistics get even better.

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 Post subject: Re: Mitch has potential
PostPosted: Thu Oct 25, 2018 1:11 pm 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
FavreFan wrote:
He's only got two more cheap years after this. That's another downside to the whole "He's young, you have to be patient and let him develop" mindset. At the rate he's currently developing, he's not really the valuable asset on a rookie contract that you had hoped for when building the team around that contract.
You've already decided his statistics don't matter so I'm not really sure how you are basing this.

If he throws for 34 touchdowns and 14 interceptions and 4200 yards then he is already a really good NFL quarterback with it being obvious that he is still missing throws that he likely will make with more game experience.

You have to watch now. I dont even think stats are comparable to other players today, because teams running The Scheme are at a colossal advantage to those who aren't.

Mitch (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky's QB rating is only three points less than Aaron Rodgers. I am a believer in Mitch but I'm not a "only marginally worse than Aaron Rodgers" believer in Mitch. But Mitch's coach, despite being kinda dunderheaded in-game and running a country-club training camp, sure knows how to scheme some motherfuckin' offense whereas Rodgers' coach thinks its 1995 and schemes appropriately.

If you watch Mitch, then watch other QB's around the league, Mitch looks about average. Middle of the pack, he makes some plays with his legs that only a handful of others can and his release is much quicker than many others. On the flip side he gets rattled and forgets how to throw sometimes, and he does Young Quarterback things like forcing balls and launching prayers into triple coverage. We can forgive some of that because every QB has to learn that there are some thing you cannot get away with in the NFL. The lesson has to be learned by doing.


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 Post subject: Re: Mitch has potential
PostPosted: Thu Oct 25, 2018 1:12 pm 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
FavreFan wrote:
No, but his value in the league would certainly rise from it.
He can't control how good other players are. He can control how good he is and so far he is on pace for a pretty good year in his second year.


I'm not sure why you are missing the point here. Why would you think I am suggesting he can control how good other QB's are? That's weird.

The reason you compare him to his peers and not from a season a decade ago is because it will give you a much more informed view of how he is objectively performing. It will erase variables that the decade old comparison won't. You are smart enough to understand this.

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 Post subject: Re: Mitch has potential
PostPosted: Thu Oct 25, 2018 1:14 pm 
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FavreFan wrote:
But it's two more years and then extension time, and if he's not worth that extension, this conversation is moot anyway.

I dont know what the league will be like by the time the 2021 off-season rolls around. The climate could be different than what it is now, hard to say. What happens with (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky then does depend on a lot of outside factors.


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 Post subject: Re: Mitch has potential
PostPosted: Thu Oct 25, 2018 1:17 pm 
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America wrote:
Mitch (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky's QB rating is only three points less than Aaron Rodgers. I am a believer in Mitch but I'm not a "only marginally worse than Aaron Rodgers" believer in Mitch. But Mitch's coach, despite being kinda dunderheaded in-game and running a country-club training camp, sure knows how to scheme some motherfuckin' offense whereas Rodgers' coach thinks its 1995 and schemes appropriately.

Well the flip side to that is Mitch's QB rating is only 3 points higher than Eli Manning, and Shurmur runs an outdated scheme as well. Just swing passes to Barkley with no blockers out in front every other fuckin play.

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 Post subject: Re: Mitch has potential
PostPosted: Thu Oct 25, 2018 1:20 pm 
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FavreFan wrote:
America wrote:
Mitch (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky's QB rating is only three points less than Aaron Rodgers. I am a believer in Mitch but I'm not a "only marginally worse than Aaron Rodgers" believer in Mitch. But Mitch's coach, despite being kinda dunderheaded in-game and running a country-club training camp, sure knows how to scheme some motherfuckin' offense whereas Rodgers' coach thinks its 1995 and schemes appropriately.

Well the flip side to that is Mitch's QB rating is only 3 points higher than Eli Manning, and Shurmur runs an outdated scheme as well. Just swing passes to Barkley with no blockers out in front every other fuckin play.

Aaron Rodgers weapons are the worst in the NFC North. It's not just his coach.


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 Post subject: Re: Mitch has potential
PostPosted: Thu Oct 25, 2018 1:21 pm 
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FavreFan wrote:
America wrote:
Mitch (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky's QB rating is only three points less than Aaron Rodgers. I am a believer in Mitch but I'm not a "only marginally worse than Aaron Rodgers" believer in Mitch. But Mitch's coach, despite being kinda dunderheaded in-game and running a country-club training camp, sure knows how to scheme some motherfuckin' offense whereas Rodgers' coach thinks its 1995 and schemes appropriately.

Well the flip side to that is Mitch's QB rating is only 3 points higher than Eli Manning, and Shurmur runs an outdated scheme as well. Just swing passes to Barkley with no blockers out in front every other fuckin play.

dont forget "hurl in the general vicinity of Odell Beckham"!

QB stats are just fucked right now. I dont know how else to describe it.


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 Post subject: Re: Mitch has potential
PostPosted: Thu Oct 25, 2018 1:21 pm 
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Kirkwood wrote:
FavreFan wrote:
America wrote:
Mitch (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky's QB rating is only three points less than Aaron Rodgers. I am a believer in Mitch but I'm not a "only marginally worse than Aaron Rodgers" believer in Mitch. But Mitch's coach, despite being kinda dunderheaded in-game and running a country-club training camp, sure knows how to scheme some motherfuckin' offense whereas Rodgers' coach thinks its 1995 and schemes appropriately.

Well the flip side to that is Mitch's QB rating is only 3 points higher than Eli Manning, and Shurmur runs an outdated scheme as well. Just swing passes to Barkley with no blockers out in front every other fuckin play.

Aaron Rodgers weapons are the worst in the NFC North. It's not just his coach.

That's true but it's mostly his coach.

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 Post subject: Re: Mitch has potential
PostPosted: Thu Oct 25, 2018 1:23 pm 
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FavreFan wrote:
Kirkwood wrote:
FavreFan wrote:
America wrote:
Mitch (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky's QB rating is only three points less than Aaron Rodgers. I am a believer in Mitch but I'm not a "only marginally worse than Aaron Rodgers" believer in Mitch. But Mitch's coach, despite being kinda dunderheaded in-game and running a country-club training camp, sure knows how to scheme some motherfuckin' offense whereas Rodgers' coach thinks its 1995 and schemes appropriately.

Well the flip side to that is Mitch's QB rating is only 3 points higher than Eli Manning, and Shurmur runs an outdated scheme as well. Just swing passes to Barkley with no blockers out in front every other fuckin play.

Aaron Rodgers weapons are the worst in the NFC North. It's not just his coach.

That's true but it's mostly his coach.

ya.


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 Post subject: Re: Mitch has potential
PostPosted: Thu Oct 25, 2018 1:24 pm 
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FavreFan wrote:
The reason you compare him to his peers and not from a season a decade ago is because it will give you a much more informed view of how he is objectively performing. It will erase variables that the decade old comparison won't. You are smart enough to understand this.
At least for this year, the NFL is seeing an unprecedented level of quarterback play. It's in large part a combination of older players playing at an elite level for far longer and a long list of younger quarterbacks coming into their own. It wasn't long ago that national writers were lamenting the future of the QB position to the point where they wanted to create a 4th QB position to develop them.

Go look at the people that Cutler was better than in year 2. Who was he better than that impresses you at all?
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2007/passing.htm

I mean, Derek Anderson and David Garrard and Matt Hasselback had far outperformed him.

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 Post subject: Re: Mitch has potential
PostPosted: Thu Oct 25, 2018 1:27 pm 
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FavreFan wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
FavreFan wrote:
He's only got two more cheap years after this. That's another downside to the whole "He's young, you have to be patient and let him develop" mindset. At the rate he's currently developing, he's not really the valuable asset on a rookie contract that you had hoped for when building the team around that contract.
You've already decided his statistics don't matter so I'm not really sure how you are basing this.

I've made it clear that the best way to compare the two seasons is by comparing them to what their peers did/are doing during the seasons in question.


So far he's in the top 3rd of his peers stat wise and you're comparing him to Bortles. WYC?

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 Post subject: Re: Mitch has potential
PostPosted: Thu Oct 25, 2018 1:28 pm 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
FavreFan wrote:
The reason you compare him to his peers and not from a season a decade ago is because it will give you a much more informed view of how he is objectively performing. It will erase variables that the decade old comparison won't. You are smart enough to understand this.
At least for this year, the NFL is seeing an unprecedented level of quarterback play. It's in large part a combination of older players playing at an elite level for far longer and a long list of younger quarterbacks coming into their own. It wasn't long ago that national writers were lamenting the future of the QB position to the point where they wanted to create a 4th QB position to develop them.

Go look at the people that Cutler was better than in year 2. Who was he better than that impresses you at all?
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2007/passing.htm

I mean, Derek Anderson and David Garrard and Matt Hasselback had far outperformed him.

The QB's aren't better, the defenses are just worse.


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 Post subject: Re: Mitch has potential
PostPosted: Thu Oct 25, 2018 1:29 pm 
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For the first time I can remember there is no elite defense in the NFL. There's time for that to change, but literally nobody can stop these offenses now.


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 Post subject: Re: Mitch has potential
PostPosted: Thu Oct 25, 2018 1:37 pm 
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America wrote:
The QB's aren't better, the defenses are just worse.
I would argue the opposite. The longevity of quarterbacks at an elite level is virtually unprecedented. It isn't just Brady. There are 5 quarterbacks playing at a HOF level at 35+ if you still count Big Ben. I don't think there has ever been a time where that has been true. You then add in a huge influx of young quarterback talent and it sets up a situation where you can be really good and you are just playing at a time when a lot of people are really good. If those 5 guys retire next year I don't think it makes (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky better or worse.

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 Post subject: Re: Mitch has potential
PostPosted: Thu Oct 25, 2018 1:45 pm 
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Name an elite defense in today's NFL.

Jacksonville gets roasted. Chicago gets roasted. LA gets roasted. NE gets roasted. Baltimore gets roasted....nobody is safe.


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 Post subject: Re: Mitch has potential
PostPosted: Thu Oct 25, 2018 1:47 pm 
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America wrote:
Name an elite defense in today's NFL.

Jacksonville gets roasted. Chicago gets roasted. LA gets roasted. NE gets roasted. Baltimore gets roasted....nobody is safe.

Shouldn't we be comparing defenses to their peers too?

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 Post subject: Re: Mitch has potential
PostPosted: Thu Oct 25, 2018 1:50 pm 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
America wrote:
The QB's aren't better, the defenses are just worse.
I would argue the opposite. The longevity of quarterbacks at an elite level is virtually unprecedented. It isn't just Brady. There are 5 quarterbacks playing at a HOF level at 35+ if you still count Big Ben. I don't think there has ever been a time where that has been true. You then add in a huge influx of young quarterback talent and it sets up a situation where you can be really good and you are just playing at a time when a lot of people are really good. If those 5 guys retire next year I don't think it makes (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky better or worse.

So to be clear, you disagree with the widely held belief that playing QB in the NFL is easier than it has ever been, and think the production is explained by an anomalous collection of talent at the QB position?

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 Post subject: Re: Mitch has potential
PostPosted: Thu Oct 25, 2018 1:52 pm 
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Boilermaker Rick wrote:
America wrote:
Name an elite defense in today's NFL.

Jacksonville gets roasted. Chicago gets roasted. LA gets roasted. NE gets roasted. Baltimore gets roasted....nobody is safe.

Shouldn't we be comparing defenses to their peers too?

How? Everyone just gets 30 dropped on them like its nothing. Then shitheap nobody defenses like Green Bay pitch a shutout (against the Bills, but still)...its all chaos. There's no pecking order anymore.


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 Post subject: Re: Mitch has potential
PostPosted: Thu Oct 25, 2018 1:59 pm 
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America wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
America wrote:
Name an elite defense in today's NFL.

Jacksonville gets roasted. Chicago gets roasted. LA gets roasted. NE gets roasted. Baltimore gets roasted....nobody is safe.

Shouldn't we be comparing defenses to their peers too?

How? Everyone just gets 30 dropped on them like its nothing. Then shitheap nobody defenses like Green Bay pitch a shutout (against the Bills, but still)...its all chaos. There's no pecking order anymore.

Baltimore is clearly the top defense. After that it gets murky.

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 Post subject: Re: Mitch has potential
PostPosted: Thu Oct 25, 2018 1:59 pm 
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Then the Saints came along and dropped 17 points on them in the 4th quarter.


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 Post subject: Re: Mitch has potential
PostPosted: Thu Oct 25, 2018 2:01 pm 
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America wrote:
Then the Saints came along and dropped 17 points on them in the 4th quarter.

First time all year they allowed a 2nd half TD and they still only allowed 24 all game to the Saints. They're at the top. I don't think anyone is a particularly close second.

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 Post subject: Re: Mitch has potential
PostPosted: Thu Oct 25, 2018 2:21 pm 
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FavreFan wrote:
Boilermaker Rick wrote:
America wrote:
The QB's aren't better, the defenses are just worse.
I would argue the opposite. The longevity of quarterbacks at an elite level is virtually unprecedented. It isn't just Brady. There are 5 quarterbacks playing at a HOF level at 35+ if you still count Big Ben. I don't think there has ever been a time where that has been true. You then add in a huge influx of young quarterback talent and it sets up a situation where you can be really good and you are just playing at a time when a lot of people are really good. If those 5 guys retire next year I don't think it makes (Pro Bowl QB) Trubisky better or worse.

So to be clear, you disagree with the widely held belief that playing QB in the NFL is easier than it has ever been, and think the production is explained by an anomalous collection of talent at the QB position?

In 2015, the national story all over the place was that there was a quarterback crisis in the NFL. So, 3 years later, NFL quarterback play is easy and all of these quarterbacks coming out of college with no idea how to play NFL football suddenly figured it out to the point that they are dominating to the point that it's a sign that quarterback play has significantly changed in a few years and that a guy on pace to throw 32 touchdowns with about half that many interceptions isn't actually playing that well because others are good.

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 Post subject: Re: Mitch has potential
PostPosted: Thu Oct 25, 2018 2:23 pm 
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FavreFan wrote:
America wrote:
Then the Saints came along and dropped 17 points on them in the 4th quarter.

First time all year they allowed a 2nd half TD and they still only allowed 24 all game to the Saints. They're at the top. I don't think anyone is a particularly close second.


"still only allowed 24"

the modern NFL


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