rogers park bryan wrote:
Yep, Notre Dame deserved to make the Playoff
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An ugly result doesn’t retroactively make a decision incorrect.
By Richard Johnson and Jason Kirk Updated Dec 29, 2018, 7:45pm EST
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Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images
Throughout December, the fact that the Irish were expected to lose to Clemson — and then did so, badly — became conflated with different weird notions, like the idea that Notre Dame wasn’t any good or didn’t deserve to be eligible for the Playoff, due to conference independence or a non-grueling schedule.
Teams who didn’t make the Playoff included (1.) a Georgia that had its shot at Bama and got blown out by LSU and (2.) an Ohio State that got wrecked by a 6-6 Purdue. It’s true that many computer power rankings and The Eyeball Test considered one or both of those teams to be better than the Irish (see below for more), but they both lost games badly on the field before Selection Sunday, while Notre Dame faced a totally fine FBS schedule (see below for more on that as well) and didn’t.
This all means there are several overlapping silly arguments to rebut.
Myth No. 1: Notre Dame wasn’t as talented as the rest of the field.
The Irish are adept at developing talent, particularly on defense, where a bevy of upperclassmen appeared telepathically linked for, well, the first 12 games of the season.
But any suggestion that Notre Dame wasn’t loaded with elite talent completely missed the point. Take the following:
A composite Rivals ranking of the past five years of recruiting reveals the following top 10: Alabama, Ohio State, Florida State, Georgia, USC, LSU, a tie between Clemson and Auburn, Notre Dame, and Oklahoma.
If recruiting rankings were gospel, The Irish should be playing in a lesser New Year’s Six bowl this week, not taking on the Tigers in JerryWorld for a chance to play for the national title Jan. 7. And neither Florida State nor USC should be sitting at home with losing records and no bowl bids.
Per the 247Sports Composite — which combines multiple recruiting rankings, including Rivals — the Irish entered 2018 recruiting at a national championship level. A team with this talent level going 12-0 against that schedule was not a big surprise.
Slightly more than half of Notre Dame’s signees over the last four years were blue-chippers, only 2 percentage points behind Oklahoma, but nobody’s trying to argue the Sooners dramatically overachieved inferior recruiting.
Myth No. 2: In the regular season, Notre Dame didn’t play nearly as well as other Playoff entrants.
One of these position groups was not like the others ... and it ain’t Notre Dame’s.
Bill Connelly’s advanced Playoff tale of the tape
Notre Dame didn’t win sexy or beat a ton of top names, but it also was between average and very good at basically every facet of football until Selection Sunday, which very few teams can ever claim — oh, and it didn’t lose, at the time the committee was making the decision. Consistency is important.
You don’t get to this stage by experiencing dramatic ups and downs, but OU was the most volatile team of the bunch, piecing together eight performances in the 80th percentile or higher but also four at 70 percent or lower in their last five games.
Myth No. 3: More qualified teams were left out in order to include the Irish.
That usually refers to Georgia or Ohio State, both of which suffered blowout losses before Selection Sunday. (You could also argue for undefeated UCF, though one-loss Oklahoma would probably be your target there, rather than a fellow unbeaten team.)
Let’s look at a few rankings that judge teams based on how they played before Selection Sunday, rather than try to guess who would’ve won a game that isn’t happening. The Irish ranked first or second among this group in all these categories — again, in addition to being undefeated at the time.
Resume rankings
Advanced stat category Notre Dame Ohio State Georgia
Strength of record 2 4 5
Game control 5 16 2
Resume S&P 6 7 3
Adjusted Win-Loss 3 4 6
ESPN and Bill Connelly
As for power rankings, which attempt to guess which team would win a game if they played tomorrow on a neutral field, the Irish tend to rank a tick behind Georgia (which doesn’t matter much to the committee, because the Dawgs lost two games to Notre Dame’s zero) and ahead of Ohio State. Many reasonable people would pick Georgia to beat Notre Dame in a game (especially now that the Cotton Bowl has happened), but that game ain’t happening.
Power ranking comparison
Advanced stat category Notre Dame Ohio State Georgia
Massey Computer Composite 4 5 3
Sagarin 7 4 3
ESPN Team Efficiencies 6 8 2
ESPN Football Power Index 7 5 3
S&P+ 6 7 3
Simple Ratings System 5 6 3
FEI 5 8 2
Billinglsey + MOV 6 4 3
Congrove Power Ranking 3 4 7
Myth No. 4: Notre Dame was only in because it’s a big TV draw.
The simulated BCS ranking — which isn’t even capable of caring about ESPN’s finances — would’ve had the Irish quite comfortably in the top four.
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BCSKnowHow.com
@BCSKnowHow
Here it is, the final simulated #BCS rankings of the 2018 season, Oklahoma just sneaks by Georgia for No. 4, mirroring the choices of the @CFBPlayoff:
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Myth No. 5: Notre Dame’s independent status means it doesn’t challenge itself like teams in conferences do.
Remember the stuff the committee actually considers about any team’s schedule. Let’s establish three simple boxes to check:
Here’s how previous Playoff teams have graded out in strength-of-schedule metrics like the kind the selection committee’s known to use:
-Average Selection Sunday win total of FBS opponents: 6.7.
-Average wins minus losses against the Selection Sunday Playoff top 25: 3.
-Average wins minus losses against .500-or-better FBS teams: 7.8.
This year, the Irish:
Played 12 FBS opponents, who averaged 6.4 regular season wins each [check]
Went 3-0 against Selection Sunday top 25 teams [check], including a top-10 Michigan (lol, bowl season was again unkind to the Irish resume)
Went 8-0 against bowl teams [check]
Based on precedent established by the committee over the rest of the last five years, Notre Dame’s schedule basics were totally average for a Playoff entrant.
Myth No. 6: Notre Dame’s schedule this year was just weak, regardless of independence and raw records.
It’s true that this schedule would’ve looked a lot tougher in 1995, but the Irish couldn’t help the fact that a team like FSU slumped hard.
Per some smarter math, the Irish played a perfectly decent schedule:
SOS rankings for college football’s unbeaten teams:
17. Alabama (0.834)
61. Notre Dame (0.888)
76. Clemson (0.901)
83. UCF (0.907)
A broader sampling (because there are a million ways to judge strength of schedule, and most people tend to gravitate toward whichever one ranks their favorite team the highest) shows dissent, but not enough to overcome Georgia having lost two more regular season games than Notre Dame did.
SOS rankings comparison
Advanced stat categories Notre Dame Ohio State Georgia
S&P SOS 61 55 11
ESPN SOS 37 41 12
FEI SOS 85 40 4
Congrove SOS 4 5 29
Team rankings SOS 25 9 1
Average 42.4 30 11.4
Myth No. 7, and we actually wrote this in the pre-Cotton version of this post, so it stays: “If Notre Dame gets blown out by Clemson, it proves the committee made the wrong decision.”
Also from the pregame version:
Results are not the fault or purview of the selection committee.
If a blowout happens, it doesn’t mean Notre Dame should’ve never been eligible to begin with. It just means the No. 2 seed beat the No. 3 seed. Clemson is really good!
(And besides, getting blown out by Clemson would still be preferable to getting blown out by Purdue or LSU, which certain other CFP contenders did this season.)
Aw, fuck all that. No one respects them. For good reason. They've gotten their asses handed to them for 2-1/2 decades. Even WITH a handpicked schedule, their own network, and no play in game to worry about. They're pampered and karma finds a way.
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